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Old 07-01-2008, 06:06 AM
Craigers Craigers is offline
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Default Detailed Look at Obama’s Redistribution Plan

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The Tax Policy Center's recent analysis of the presidential tax plans has received a considerable amount of attention in the press. While much of the focus has been on how much or how little each plan benefits "middle-class" taxpayers, little attention has been paid to how each plan affects the overall distribution of the nation's tax burden.

On this account, the plans are vastly different. Under the McCain plan, since every taxpayer gets a tax cut, the overall distribution of the federal tax burden remains roughly the same as it is today. Under the Obama plan, because some taxpayers get a tax cut and others get a substantial tax increase, the overall distribution of the federal tax burden changes quite considerably.

In short, the Obama plan would redistribute more than $131 billion per year from the top 1 percent of taxpayers to all other taxpayers. In 2009, for example, Tax Policy Center figures show that after the income-shifting in the Obama plan, the top 1 percent of taxpayers would pay a greater share of the total federal tax burden than the bottom 80 percent of Americans combined. In other words, 1.13 million Americans would pay more in all federal taxes than 128 million of their fellow citizens combined.

These figures do not include the impact of Obama's proposal to apply Social Security payroll taxes on incomes above $250,000. According to Tax Policy Center estimates, this plan would increase the tax burden of top earners by an additional $40 billion in 2009 alone and more than $629 billion over the next ten years. By itself, the $40 billion tax hike is twice as much as all the federal taxes paid by people in the bottom quintile combined.

To put the Obama plan in context, it is important to understand how divided America's tax burden already is between a large group of Americans who pay little or nothing and a shrinking group of upper-income taxpayers who shoulder the lion's share of the burden. For example:

* In 1999, about 30 million tax filers had no income tax liability after taking advantage of their credits and deductions. By 2006, the number of non-payers had grown to nearly 44 million, one-third of all income tax filers.
* According to the Congressional Budget Office, in 2005, the top 20 percent of households paid 86.3 percent of income taxes while the bottom 80 percent paid a collective 13.7 percent of the income tax burden. The top 1 percent of households paid 38.8 percent of income taxes.
* Looking at all federal taxes, in 1990, the bottom 80 percent of households paid 42 percent of the tax burden while the top 1 percent of households paid about 16 percent. By 2005, the share of all federal taxes paid by the bottom 80 percent of households had fallen to 31 percent, while the share paid by the wealthiest households had risen to nearly 28 percent.
* A recent Tax Foundation study found that in 2004, the nation's tax and spending policies redistributed more than $1 trillion in income from the top 40 percent of American households to the bottom 60 percent of households.


http://www.taxfoundation.org/publica...how/23319.html

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While many Americans may cheer this outcome as just or equitable, this sort of direct redistribution raises some important questions that should be part of a larger national discussion:

* What is the long-term effect on the economy of so few households shouldering such a large share of the tax burden?
* What are the consequences for our democratic system when a majority of Americans are disconnected from the full cost of government? Will that majority demand more from the government because they bear little of the cost?
* Should the tax system be used as a means of redistributing income or simply as a neutral mechanism for raising money for government services? Can a tax system premised on redistribution also be compatible with economic growth?
* The Obama plan assumes little behavioral change from such a large tax hike on high-income workers. Is this realistic or will the higher rates encourage tax minimization strategies and reduced work effort, which will lead to lower tax revenues?
Let's not forget the top 1% already pay almost 40% of all taxes.

http://www.ntu.org/main/page.php?PageID=6
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Old 07-01-2008, 07:53 AM
hendrixpujols11 hendrixpujols11 is offline
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Originally Posted by Craigers View Post


http://www.taxfoundation.org/publica...how/23319.html

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Let's not forget the top 1% already pay almost 40% of all taxes.

http://www.ntu.org/main/page.php?PageID=6
What's really interesting is that Warren Buffet endorsed Obama. Strange.

Correct me if I am wrong, but what you are saying is that by increasing taxation on the rich and reducing it on the poorer, redistribution would hurt the economy because of a keynesian economy?
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Old 07-01-2008, 08:13 AM
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To be meaningful, this analysis needs two details that aren't provided:

1. What share of *income* do the top 1% pull in?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/29/business/29tax.html

In 2005, the top 1% of earners pulled in 21.8% of reported income, according to the IRS. And that ignores the fact that business and investment income is harder for the IRS to see, because it relies on honest self-reporting by each individual -- whereas wages are reported separately to the IRS and thus hard to dodge. So the wealthy's share of national income is actually higher than reported. As such, their share of income taxes isn't outrageous.

2. A look at total tax burden. Income tax is but one part of the total tax picture. Traditionally, when you throw in payroll and sales taxes and the like, the total tax burden shifts away from the wealthy a bit. They still pay a higher percentage, but it's not dramatically higher. It's an example of a mildly progressive tax system.
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/...-quintile.html
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Old 07-01-2008, 08:16 AM
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what I see is punishment for being successful
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Old 07-01-2008, 08:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Craigers View Post
Let's not forget the top 1% already pay almost 40% of all taxes.
Top 1% pay 40% of income taxes...not all taxes.

Not unless the top 1% is picking up the tab on sales taxes, paying an inordinate share of payroll taxes or such.

The top 1% pay most of their taxes in capital gains--buying selling stocks, businesses or properties. The income tax is not a big tax to them since they do earn their fortunes in capital gains and not earned income. What are the capital gain tax rates? Generally 15 or 25%. That's comparative to what the middle and lower middle class pays in income tax.

The middle and lower class pay most of their taxes in payroll taxes. That tax rate is the same exact tax rate paid by the top 1% (except for the medicare portion).

I actually like Obama's tax plan. It's a lot like the incredibly successful Clinton tax plan from the '90s.
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Old 07-01-2008, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted by hendrixpujols11 View Post
What's really interesting is that Warren Buffet endorsed Obama. Strange.

Correct me if I am wrong, but what you are saying is that by increasing taxation on the rich and reducing it on the poorer, redistribution would hurt the economy because of a keynesian economy?
I am only saying that Obama's plan is socialistic wealth redistribution. I do not believe so few individuals should be paying for hand outs to the rest. I equate it to buying votes. (*)(*)(*)(*) off a small percentage of the country to buy the rest.

On a side note, the Keynesian model believes in redistribution due to having more money in the hands of those that typically spend and not save, is that correct?

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Originally Posted by raytri View Post
To be meaningful, this analysis needs two details that aren't provided:

1. What share of *income* do the top 1% pull in?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/29/business/29tax.html

In 2005, the top 1% of earners pulled in 21.8% of reported income, according to the IRS. And that ignores the fact that business and investment income is harder for the IRS to see, because it relies on honest self-reporting by each individual -- whereas wages are reported separately to the IRS and thus hard to dodge. So the wealthy's share of national income is actually higher than reported. As such, their share of income taxes isn't outrageous.

2. A look at total tax burden. Income tax is but one part of the total tax picture. Traditionally, when you throw in payroll and sales taxes and the like, the total tax burden shifts away from the wealthy a bit. They still pay a higher percentage, but it's not dramatically higher. It's an example of a mildly progressive tax system.
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/...-quintile.html
Are you saying that the data is flawed because we don't know if individuals are reporting their taxes correctly? Previous year's data tend to show the same correlation that the top 1% of earners are paying about twice the amount of total income taxes to total income earned.

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what I see is punishment for being successful
Agreed.

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Originally Posted by Decker View Post
Top 1% pay 40% of income taxes...not all taxes.

Not unless the top 1% is picking up the tab on sales taxes, paying an inordinate share of payroll taxes or such.

The top 1% pay most of their taxes in capital gains--buying selling stocks, businesses or properties. The income tax is not a big tax to them since they do earn their fortunes in capital gains and not earned income. What are the capital gain tax rates? Generally 15 or 25%. That's comparative to what the middle and lower middle class pays in income tax.

The middle and lower class pay most of their taxes in payroll taxes. That tax rate is the same exact tax rate paid by the top 1% (except for the medicare portion).

I actually like Obama's tax plan. It's a lot like the incredibly successful Clinton tax plan from the '90s.
Yes of course, I meant income tax, thats for the clarification in my post.
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Old 07-01-2008, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Craigers View Post
Are you saying that the data is flawed because we don't know if individuals are reporting their taxes correctly?
Sort of.

I'm saying that "share of income taxes" is only meaningful when compared to "share of income." If one guy pays 50% of all taxes, you might think he's exploited -- until you find out he earns 50% of all income.

The top 1% pay 38% of the income taxes. They earn 21.8% of reported income, according to the IRS. So you have a case that the wealthy are taxed at a slightly higher rate than their share of income would suggest -- which makes sense, because we have a mildly progressive tax system.

But the IRS also estimates that while it captures 99% of wage income, it only captures 70% of business and investment income, because those numbers aren't reported separately and basically rely on honest self-reporting by business owners and investors. And business and investment income is the primary source of income for the wealthy.

So in reality, the top 1% earn *more* than 21.8% of reported income -- probably quite a lot more. Which makes their 38% share of income taxes even less outrageous. Think of the higher tax rate as helping to compensate for their tax cheating.
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Old 07-01-2008, 08:57 AM
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So in reality, the top 1% earn *more* than 21.8% of reported income -- probably quite a lot more. Which makes their 38% share of income taxes even less outrageous. Think of the higher tax rate as helping to compensate for their tax cheating.
Interesting. That sounds a little iffy though, as everybody is being punished for the dishonesty of a few.
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Old 07-01-2008, 08:58 AM
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Originally Posted by submarinepainter View Post
what I see is punishment for being successful
Where's the punishment? The higher tax rates are there b/c those people have the ability to pay. That's just sensible.

Everybody pays the same income tax rate.

The graduated scale of rates increases with the amount of income earned.

The top 1% do not pay 35% income tax on all income earned.

They pay the same rates at the same grades as everybody else: 10% tax for dollars earned btn 0-$8,025 and so on for grades 15-35%.

The more you earn, the higher the tax on those dollars earned at that particular grade.

If we had a flat income tax of around 23 or 24%, the poor would see their taxes go sky high while the rich, who have the best ability to pay, would see a substantial income tax cut.
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Old 07-01-2008, 09:00 AM
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Originally Posted by hendrixpujols11 View Post
Interesting. That sounds a little iffy though, as everybody is being punished for the dishonesty of a few.
True. The point remains, though, that if we view the 1% as a group, they're not being squeezed dry relative to income share.
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