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Old 07-07-2008, 07:01 PM
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Default Is it Safe Now to Admit Jimmy Carter Was Right?

High oil prices? Nobody's fault, right? Jimmy Carter tried to get Americans to understand the problem, but was buried by those who wanted no part of conserving. Nice article for people who have selective memory about this remarkable man.


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Is it Safe Now to Admit Jimmy Carter Was Right?
By Joseph Wheelan

Mr. Wheelan is the author of four books on American presidents and American history, the most recent published in January, Mr. Adams's Last Crusade: John Quincy Adams's Extraordinary Post-Presidential Life in Congress.

Misunderstood, mocked, and maligned, the 39th president (1977-81) will forever be associated with the Iranian hostage crisis and the botched rescue attempt; the human rights-inspired Olympic boycott and grain embargo; inflation; the infamous rabbit attack; and, above all, skyrocketing fuel prices.

Americans, who hate to be told they must change, roundly condemned Jimmy Carter’s memorable “Crisis of Confidence” speech of July 15, 1979. In it, Carter outlined a program for achieving energy independence: “On the battlefield of energy we can win for our nation a new confidence, and we can seize control again of our common destiny.”

We admirers have long endured ridicule whenever we dared to defend Carter’s prescient plan for reducing U.S. dependence on oil.

But today, after all the abuse and scorn heaped on Jimmy Carter and his supporters, we find ourselves paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump to fill our hulking gas guzzlers.

It turns out that Carter was right after all.

He was right in seeking to raise the fleet auto mileage standard to 48 miles per gallon by 1995. (Even U.S. automakers admitted at the time that they could easily achieve 30 mph by 1985.)

Jimmy Carter was right in exhorting Americans to turn down their thermostats, even if he did look nerdy in a cardigan while urging us to do so.

In his July 1979 speech, he was right when he said, “I am tonight setting a clear goal for the energy policy of the United States. Beginning this moment, this nation will never use more foreign oil than we did in 1977 — never.” That worthy goal quickly went by the board.

He was right to encourage fuel conservation by proposing a 50-cents-per-gallon tax on gasoline and a fee on imported oil — in effect, a floor for fuel prices.

Invoking the pioneering spirit of the 1960s’ moon mission, he was right to recommend a tax on windfall oil profits to finance a crash program to develop affordable synthetic fuels.

Jimmy Carter was correct, too, in setting a goal of obtaining 20 percent of our energy from solar power by the year 2000.

We balked, and his energy program, which was new and demanding, shriveled up and died. When oil prices began declining in the 1980s, the justification for change vanished altogether. The Reagan administration junked the proposed 1995 mileage standard and the rest of the Carter agenda.

Amazingly, amid today’s record gasoline prices, Congress even now doesn’t quite get it.

It was only last December that Congress approved new mileage standards, the first in 32 years. If they stand, the present fleet standard of 27.5 mpg will rise to 35 mpg — but not until 2020.

Our leaders’ idea of promoting alternative energy is touting future, non-existent technologies, and that false savior, ethanol. Ethanol consumes nearly as much fuel to make as it produces, while collaterally raising food prices and damaging the environment.

The latest panacea is drilling in the Arctic and offshore, a short-term solution of dubious value that is wildly popular among oilmen and congressmen up for re-election, and in the Bush administration — which evidently hopes to use high gasoline prices as a wedge for opening off-limits areas to exploration for its Big Oil constituency.

Meanwhile, Congress has failed to take the simple step of renewing federal tax credits for wind and solar power that will expire at year’s end. Every week of congressional foot-dragging on renewing the tax credits further dries up venture capital for critical solar and projects.

Why is Congress deadlocked over this critical issue? How have our perceived options become so narrow and skewed?

It is because without any public debate, a de facto U.S. energy policy has evolved and is now in place: to cling ever tighter to our oil-based economy and its lucrative profits for the scions of the status quo, and to marginalize all who are not on board with this.

And now we are in the exact bind that Jimmy Carter tried to prevent three decades ago, when we were reeling from the concussive effects of oil supply disruptions in 1973 and 1979. Acting with promptness difficult to fathom today, our elected leaders then enacted year-around Daylight Savings Time, dropped the speed limit to 55, and established government price controls. And, oh so fleetingly, we downsized what we drove. All gone.

Consequently, the United States last year imported 3.6 billion barrels of oil, three times the 1.2 million barrels imported in 1973. We not only are consuming record amounts of oil, we import nearly 60 percent of it, about 13 million barrels per day. In 1977, U.S. oil imports totaled 8.5 million barrels a day, or 46 percent of consumption.

Remember, under Carter’s energy plan we were to hold the line at the 1977 oil import figure, in barrels. Had we done this, the percentage of U.S. oil imported today would be around 40 percent. Additional savings from Carter’s conservation and his alternative energy and synthetic fuel programs would surely have cut oil imports even further

But it happened so fast, we say.

One hundred years ago, historian Henry Adams, in explaining his “Law of Acceleration,” observed that technological change occurs at an ever-quickening pace throughout history. “A law of acceleration, definite and constant as any law of mechanics, cannot be supposed to relax its energy to suit the convenience of man.”

Today, change occurs at such blinding speeds that the rise and fall of technologies and nations happen in a single lifetime.

An energy crisis is again upon us. Soaring gasoline prices and oil imports are daggers aimed at the heart of our stumbling economy.

It is time to give Jimmy Carter’s proposals a second hearing.

This is what he said in July 1979: “You know we can do it. We have the natural resources. We have more oil in our shale alone than several Saudi Arabias. We have more coal than any nation on Earth. We have the world's highest level of technology. We have the most skilled work force, with innovative genius, and I firmly believe that we have the national will to win this war.”
http://hnn.us/articles/52030.html
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Old 07-07-2008, 07:05 PM
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Old 07-07-2008, 07:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Ziggae_6 View Post
High oil prices? Nobody's fault, right? Jimmy Carter tried to get Americans to understand the problem, but was buried by those who wanted no part of conserving. Nice article for people who have selective memory about this remarkable man.
Some day the sun will turn into a red giant and consume the earth. Some day it will rain. Some day it will be sunny.

All Jimmy really did was make a prediction that has to happen, eventually. Is that something we should give him credit for? I don't think so.

He predicted this because he thought we were running out of oil, but we've not run out of oil. We have not had a single shortage since the 70's - with the exception of a few hurricanes. So Jimmy was wrong about there being a supply shortage, but he was right when he said we should diversify.
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Old 07-07-2008, 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Raharu Haruha View Post
Some day the sun will turn into a red giant and consume the earth. Some day it will rain. Some day it will be sunny.

All Jimmy really did was make a prediction that has to happen, eventually. Is that something we should give him credit for? I don't think so.

He predicted this because he thought we were running out of oil, but we've not run out of oil. We have not had a single shortage since the 70's - with the exception of a few hurricanes. So Jimmy was wrong about there being a supply shortage, but he was right when he said we should diversify.
He did a little more than that, in that he tried to build administrative goals around his "prediction" along with legislation to back it. He came out and asked Americans to conserve and he's was roundly mocked for it. Who since Carter has stood for any kind of improved energy policy?--until it became so obvious the current clown in the WH may even be able to understand it, though I doubt it.
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Old 07-07-2008, 07:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Ziggae_6 View Post
He did a little more than that, in that he tried to build administrative goals around his "prediction" along with legislation to back it. He came out and asked Americans to conserve and he's was roundly mocked for it. Who since Carter has stood for any kind of improved energy policy?--until it became so obvious the current clown in the WH may even be able to understand it, though I doubt it.
I'd rather not have anyone try to plan out the energy sector of the economy. Planned economies don't tend to work in the real world. While there may not be anything wrong with asking Americans to conserve energy, there would be something really wrong with trying to force them to conserve. I'll mock anyone running for political office who wants to come up with an energy "policy," the government should stay out of the energy industry wherever it can.
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Old 07-07-2008, 09:24 PM
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Originally Posted by White Fox View Post
I'd rather not have anyone try to plan out the energy sector of the economy. Planned economies don't tend to work in the real world. While there may not be anything wrong with asking Americans to conserve energy, there would be something really wrong with trying to force them to conserve. I'll mock anyone running for political office who wants to come up with an energy "policy," the government should stay out of the energy industry wherever it can.
Well I don't think all policy is bad, but they should certainly not hypocritically make an effort to lower prices while they stop domestic drilling.

Carter is opposed to drilling domestic oil: http://www.commondreams.org/headlines01/0203-01.htm
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Old 07-08-2008, 06:37 AM
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If we had held the line at 1977 import levels...LOL. Gee, he might as well have said I intend to create a cure for cancer as leader of the US. Then in five years some biased reporter can look back and say "see, if we had only created that cure that Jimmy wanted look how many millions of lives we would have saved?" His plan was impractical and would have had minimal impact on today. What would a 50 cent tax do other than increase gas for consumers? Conservation? Americans aren't to suddenly cancel all of their vacation plans because of a tax. And people have jobs to go to, they aren't going to stop driving to work. Taxes would have had an incredibly small impact. As ould have a tax on windfall profits. The cost would have just been passed on to the consumer. And this would have been used to develop synthetic fuels. Billions have been poured into R&D for alternative energy sources, but somehow the money from his tax would have had a magically different impact than the private money already invested?

A goal of 20% from solar power is the most laughable. "I declare a goal of world peace by 2010." I guess that makes me brilliant too, I mean that's a great goal right? Solar is expensive and uses more energy to produce than it saves. His goal was as practical as mine.

His fleet standard was obviously off target as well since even the best hybrid cars can't get 48 mpg. Yet that was supposed to be the average?
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All you need to know about the energy crisis:
ANWR Exploration Republicans: 91% Supported. Democrats: 86% Opposed.
Coal-to-liquid R's: 90% YES. D's: 78% NO.
Oil Shale Exploration R's: 90% YES. D's: 86% NO.
Outer Continental Shelf Exploration R's: 81% YES. D's: 83% NO.
Increased Refinery Capacity R's: 97% YES. D's: 96% NO

SUMMARY: 91% of House Republicans have historically voted to increase the production of America’s own oil and gas. 86% of House Democrats have historically voted against.
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Old 07-08-2008, 06:54 AM
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the best hybrid cars can't get 48 mpg. Yet that was supposed to be the average?
Some Japanese cars can get around 80. The problem is that they can't meet our safety requirements, because in Japan they drive at lower speeds and don't have a large influx of power-obsessed yuppies and kids who can't drive transporting themselves via oversized death machines.
So it is possible... but we value our ability to get into more and deadlier accidents more than oil conservation.
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Old 07-08-2008, 07:03 AM
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IHis plan was impractical and would have had minimal impact on today.
Looked practical to me.

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What would a 50 cent tax do other than increase gas for consumers? Conservation? Americans aren't to suddenly cancel all of their vacation plans because of a tax. And people have jobs to go to, they aren't going to stop driving to work. Taxes would have had an incredibly small impact.
Untrue. Look what $4 gasoline is doing now: people are traveling less, carpooling, biking, taking mass transit, selling gas guzzlers and buying more fuel-efficient cars. Adjusted for inflation, a 50-cent gas tax would have had a somewhat similar effect. And it would have happened *before* we actually hit crisis mode.

Price something properly, and people will make rational economic decisions about it. A 50-cent gas tax in 1977 would have helped a lot.

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As ould have a tax on windfall profits. The cost would have just been passed on to the consumer. And this would have been used to develop synthetic fuels. Billions have been poured into R&D for alternative energy sources, but somehow the money from his tax would have had a magically different impact than the private money already invested?
Agreed that this was less useful, but it would have been additional money for R&D. And it would have reframed the argument, putting the *emphasis* on alternative fuels and away from oil.

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A goal of 20% from solar power is the most laughable.
So now you're belittling him for being ambitious and thinking big. It's still a worthwhile goal.

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Solar is expensive and uses more energy to produce than it saves.
That wasn't even true back then. It's more expensive per kilowatt hour, but it's clean and energy-efficient.

Quote:
His fleet standard was obviously off target as well since even the best hybrid cars can't get 48 mpg. Yet that was supposed to be the average?
Had we spent the last 25 years improving fuel-efficiency, it would have been practical. Never mind that car companies took most of the improvements from hybrids and devoted it to increased enginepower, not increased fuel-efficiency.

Isn't it conservatives who always complain that liberals always say "we can't"?
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Old 07-08-2008, 08:09 AM
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Untrue. Look what $4 gasoline is doing now: people are traveling less, carpooling, biking, taking mass transit, selling gas guzzlers and buying more fuel-efficient cars. Adjusted for inflation, a 50-cent gas tax would have had a somewhat similar effect. And it would have happened *before* we actually hit crisis mode.

Price something properly, and people will make rational economic decisions about it. A 50-cent gas tax in 1977 would have helped a lot.
Gas use has decreased by the largest amount in American history. That stunning figure? A whopping .4%. 4/10 will do incredibly little to impact US dependence on foreign oil. We use 7 billion barrels a year, .4% is 28 million barrels. We could drill in Alaska and have a 150 year supply of 28 million barrels. Critics say ANWAR will provide little, well increased prices provides a small fraction of ANWAR. 50 cents would have done little more than increase inflation even further and hurt the economy even more.

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Agreed that this was less useful, but it would have been additional money for R&D. And it would have reframed the argument, putting the *emphasis* on alternative fuels and away from oil.
Additional money isn't the problem. There is plenty of money. Alternative energy is the hottest sector of the VC market and has been one of the tops since the tech boom. It would have been a waste.

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So now you're belittling him for being ambitious and thinking big. It's still a worthwhile goal.
I'm belittling him for being impractical and unrealistic. World peace is a worthwhile goal. It is equally unattainable.

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That wasn't even true back then. It's more expensive per kilowatt hour, but it's clean and energy-efficient.
Yes it was http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...3/ai_n24919619

Quote:
In the 1970s, manufacturing a solar cell required about as much energy as the cell could produce over its 20-year lifetime, so using solar power provided little if any energy gain. Also, as recently as 10 years ago, total emissions from solar cells were about twice what the new study shows.
It is coming down quickly though. But it is still drastically more expensive.

Quote:
Had we spent the last 25 years improving fuel-efficiency, it would have been practical. Never mind that car companies took most of the improvements from hybrids and devoted it to increased enginepower, not increased fuel-efficiency.
For those where they did, like the Prius, they still fell far short.
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All you need to know about the energy crisis:
ANWR Exploration Republicans: 91% Supported. Democrats: 86% Opposed.
Coal-to-liquid R's: 90% YES. D's: 78% NO.
Oil Shale Exploration R's: 90% YES. D's: 86% NO.
Outer Continental Shelf Exploration R's: 81% YES. D's: 83% NO.
Increased Refinery Capacity R's: 97% YES. D's: 96% NO

SUMMARY: 91% of House Republicans have historically voted to increase the production of America’s own oil and gas. 86% of House Democrats have historically voted against.
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