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Old 07-21-2008, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by raytri View Post
Just to interject here: The economy has become *substantially* less volatile in the last several decades, an indication that the Fed is doing a good job.
http://www.williampolley.com/blog/archives/2005/11/

The chart on the link shows the annual change in GDP going back to the mid-40s. Notice how the peaks and valleys have become a lot shorter/shallower since about 1985?

Unless you think the Fed hasn't made a mistake in the last 23 years, it seems apparent that its mistakes aren't upsetting the apple cart much.
Thanks for sharing.

I am not 100% up to speed on how the GDP was calculated in 1940 vs how it was calculated more recently. I would want to look more into that before I responded. I know for example that unemployment figures have had pretty drastic changes in how they are calculated since about 1960, so it is hard to do an apples to apples comparison over time.
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America would be a better place if they would have just killed McCain.

Last edited by t206; 07-21-2008 at 09:27 AM.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2008, 10:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raytri View Post
Just to interject here: The economy has become *substantially* less volatile in the last several decades, an indication that the Fed is doing a good job.
http://www.williampolley.com/blog/archives/2005/11/

The chart on the link shows the annual change in GDP going back to the mid-40s. Notice how the peaks and valleys have become a lot shorter/shallower since about 1985?

Unless you think the Fed hasn't made a mistake in the last 23 years, it seems apparent that its mistakes aren't upsetting the apple cart much.
Now, I agree that the Fed deserves some credit, but the date 1985 could indicate another cause.

When the Soviet Union began to collapse in the mid '80s, the entire structure of the global economy changed. Walls and barriers to economic exchange well along with the political wall between East and West. In addition, more countries became capitalist countries, global production grew faster than it ever had before. The massively increasing size of the global economy alone could account for the greater amount of economic security, as people from around the world could connect and the traditional dip in the business cycle that we know so well become spread out and absorbed by the shear size of our global economy.

This is just a theory though, thought I'd share.
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Old 07-21-2008, 10:51 AM
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ron paul would set this nation back a century.
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Old 07-21-2008, 11:30 AM
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ron paul would set this nation back a century.
I would prefer to be set back two centuries, but I'll take what I can get.
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Old 07-21-2008, 01:26 PM
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ron paul would set this nation back a century.
Is this fact, or just your closed minded opinion?
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America would be a better place if they would have just killed McCain.
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Old 07-21-2008, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by White Fox View Post
Now, I agree that the Fed deserves some credit, but the date 1985 could indicate another cause.
I don't know that increased capitalism worldwide would reduce volatility. It might improve overall economic output, but I don't see it has having a direct relationship to volatility. Indeed, socialist systems tend to greatly reduce volatility -- though at a steep cost.

I think most economists agree that a big causative factor was Fed chairman Paul Volcker's decision to beat the snot out of inflation.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/ec...xplains_t.html

What accounts for the fact that real growth has been more stable in recent years? We survey the evidence and competing explanations and find support for the view that improved inventory management policies, coupled with financial innovation, adopting an inflation targeting scheme and increased central bank independence have all been associated with more stable real growth.

Note that the link's link (which the above quote is drawn from) addresses the "increased capitalism" idea (i.e., increased trade) and finds weak evidence that increasing trade actually *increases* volatility.
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Old 07-21-2008, 01:42 PM
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Is this fact, or just your closed minded opinion?
it is a fact and my closed minded opinion. 2 in 1. paul is the #1 choice among white supremacists and impressionable youngsters who dont quite fit in.
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Old 07-21-2008, 01:54 PM
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it is a fact and my closed minded opinion. 2 in 1. paul is the #1 choice among white supremacists and impressionable youngsters who dont quite fit in.
Ok, as long as you realize that its closed minded...and wrong...incredibly wrong.

Im not opposed to your right to think that, all I can do is point out how ludicris those comments are.
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America would be a better place if they would have just killed McCain.
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