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Originally Posted by GW in Ohio
Tim: I hear talk of the U.S. possibly mounting an attack on the Iranian nuclear installations between now and election day. I guess I wouldn't put it past the Bush people to do this, but I'm hoping they're intimidated by Bush's microscopic poll numbers and they won't want to do anything that would jeopardize McCain's election chances.
There are two very different perspectives on Middle East foreign policy. The George Bush/GOP school of thought believes we need to get in there and fight until everybody who is against us is either killed or intimidated. This school of thought believes that we have a right to manipulate events in the Middle East to bring about an outcome that's favorable to our national interest. The problem with this school of thought, even assuming that it is correct, is that most of our meddling in this region has not had the outcomes we expected and most of our efforts there have actually been counter-productive to our interests. Look at how we've tried to influence events in Iraq and Iran for the last 50-60 years and how we've wound up screwing things up worse than they were before. We installed Saddam Hussein in Iraq and then we deposed him. We installed the Shah in Iran and then we stood by helplessly while he was deposed by a coup led by anti-American wackos.
The other school of thought, which I subscribe to, believes that just about all our problems with the Muslim world stem from our interventions and imperialistic meddling in the region. If we would disengage from the region, and announce publicly that we're letting events there run their natural course, much of the rationale for anti-American sentiment would be removed.
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I don't see an American attack on Iran for a number of reasons. For one, the Bush administration isn't staffed by the irrational and fanatic neoconservatives like it was until 2006/2007. The people that drove the administration into the Iraq debacle have been purged for the most part, or have resigned. The neonservative element would be a key component in the event of an American attack on Iran, and it's largely absent at the moment. The other major advocates of a war are a few ethnic lobbying groups, and of course the Israeli government which has been desperate for an American war with Iran. Pressure from the latter is still real, but I think an attack on Iran would simply be politically impossible at this point. Bush is a young guy after all, and I doubt he'll want to be blamed for the rest of his life for crippling the Republican party.
As for the rest of your post, I think people in the Mid East tend to understand the United States far better than Americans understand the Mid East. Iraq has never had a history of democracy, and you simply can't come in and impose democracy from the top down. In Iran, as controlled as our democracy may be, we've had a long history of bottom-up democracy. On the grassroots level Iranian democracy is as strong as any in the world, although it's certainly a tougher challenge as we have to maneuver within the confines of a controlled system. But in terms of grass-roots democratic institutions, there's probably no other country in the region with a comparable activism. There are more womens rights movements for example than you can count, and this sort of thing has always been absent in Iraq, a country that's always been under dictatorship.
As for your school of thought on foreign policy, I think there's a lot of truth to it. Of course, your description of the Bush administration view that America should "fight until everyone is killed or intimidated" is sort of a mirror image of Al Qaeda's backward Wahhabi Salafist thinking. Al Qaeda, like the Bush administration, justifies its aggression both to itself and the world by striking a defensive pose. It's natural for any person or entity to do this. But one would only have to listen to the grievances of the terrorists and their sympathizers to find what you have, namely that a lot of the resentment they feel is explained by them through what they consider to be American aggression. Even Bin Laden justifies his attacks by referring to the 500,000 Iraqi children who died under what he terms the "US imposed sanctions" on Iraq. And he routinely says that he has a right to "lay waste" to American cities just as for instance when he watched Lebanese cities being "laid to waste" by Israel with American political and military support.