Republican's False Security for 2010? - Page 6

mertex · #51 (**permalink**) 10-22-2009, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Imrahil1

For whatever it's worth, in "real life" I tend to lean more conservative/libertarian than most of the people I interact with, but on this site, I'm much, much more left in general. I tend to be on the opposite end of the debate from the right-wingers in this forum, which leads me to believe that the very, very vocal super-anti-Obama people are a small minority in the genpop & not represented in the same proportion in the electorate as they are here.

Basically, I've only encountered birthers, deathers, extreme neo-cons, people who actually think Cheney is a good guy, etc. on the internet, and, more specifically, in this forum (this being the only politically-themed website I frequent, not to say that political discussions don't occur on other websites).

In my opinion, the extreme right-wing, "sky is falling", America=hell-in-a-handbasket, Republicans will win a majority in '10, type people are limited to the internet (& apparently talk radio & Fox News, but I only know that from coming here - I don't frequent either one), for the most part. I just don't see it reflected in the "mainstream" population.

What I see (& keep in mind, I work for a health insurance company in the South, so I interact with people who might be hurt by his proposals) is people disappointed that Obama isn't liberal enough. The people "disappointed" in him aren't likely to turn to the GOP. They're probably more like me & just less & less inclined to turn out to even vote in '10, much less '12, which may help the GOP, but isn't the same as support.

Your honesty is much appreciated. I do believe you are right, because I am surrounded by conservatives in real life - and they are not ranting and raving like the ones on this forum. The ones on this forum make a lot of noise, but I think their numbers are much smaller than they realize, in reality.

It would be nice to hear the side of the not so radical, and hope that we could work together, but most likely not on this forum!

Ronin Tetsuro · #52 (**permalink**) 10-22-2009, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mertex

Your honesty is much appreciated. I do believe you are right, because I am surrounded by conservatives in real life - and they are not ranting and raving like the ones on this forum. The ones on this forum make a lot of noise, but I think their numbers are much smaller than they realize, in reality.

It would be nice to hear the side of the not so radical, and hope that we could work together, but most likely not on this forum!

Agreed. Every time I've been around liberals and conservatives discussing issues in real life, they find they have much more in common than anything else.

The pundits profit from your internal division from your countrymen. They want you to believe that people trying to broaden your horizons are your enemy, that they are bad for you. Why do you think I keep coming back to this forum, even in spite of all the (*)(*)(*)(*)tards spouting faith-in-humanity-ending horse(*)(*)(*)(*) nonstop?

Because I still learn new stuff all the time here. If you're not interested in learning something new every day, do everyone a favor and jump head first into an industrial woodchipper. We could all do with less traffic.

JP5 · #53 (**permalink**) 10-22-2009, 05:26 PM

That poll is skewed and flawed:

The sampling comprises 33% Democrats, as opposed to only 20% Republicans. That thirteen-point spread is two points larger than their September polling, at 32%/21%. More tellingly, it’s significantly larger than their Election Day sample, which included 35% Democrats to 26% Republicans for a gap of nine points, about a third smaller than the gap in this poll. Of course, that’s when they were more concerned about accuracy over political points of view.

Remember when I wrote that poll watchers need to remember the recent Gallup poll on party affiliation? Gallup polled 5,000 adults and found that the gap between Democrats and Republicans had closed to the smallest margin since 2005, six points, and had been reduced more than half since the beginning of the year. For the WaPo/ABC poll, though, their sample gap has increased almost 50% during that time.

Given that skew, it’s hardly surprising that they find a 57% approval rating for Obama, up three points since last month, almost the entirety of the gap increase since the last poll. His 48% tie on health care should be a significant disapproval instead, and the 45%/51% slide on the deficit has probably expanded at the same rate as the deficit in a survey with a realistic sample.
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/10/2...ption-support/

teamosil · #54 (**permalink**) 10-22-2009, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JP5

Remember when I wrote that poll watchers need to remember the recent Gallup poll on party affiliation? Gallup polled 5,000 adults and found that the gap between Democrats and Republicans had closed to the smallest margin since 2005, six points, and had been reduced more than half since the beginning of the year. For the WaPo/ABC poll, though, their sample gap has increased almost 50% during that time.

Your point is valid, but it's less of a skew than you are thinking. That gallup poll looks at how many people either identify as Republican or lean Republican but don't identify as Republican, and same for the Democrats. The margin between people who identify Republican and who identify as Democrat (which is what the survey in the OP looks at) is 8%. So, it's a 5% skew, not a 13% skew.

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