Neither side is innocent in any of this, NoPole.

Here... I'm pretty sure blowing up the main electricity transmission lines and gas-pipelines to place the Georgian people under seige in the middle of winter constitutes as terrorism.



---snip--
Co-ordinated explosions in North Ossetia in the early hours of 22 January 2006 destroyed the main and reserve pipelines exporting Russian natural gas to Georgia and Armenia. Hours later, another explosion cut the main electricity transmission line to Georgia from Karachayevo-Cherkess, another of Russia's troubled Caucasian republics.

With temperatures dropping below -15?C in the coldest winter for years, Georgia's frozen capital was heated by the rage of President Mikheil Saakashvili, who has made restoration and stabilisation of energy supplies a benchmark of his government's success. Addressing the nation, he laid responsibility squarely with the Russian Federation, which he labelled an "unprincipled blackmailer".

July, the Georgian interior ministry presented a dossier to the Russian embassy accusing its intelligence services of training a number of Ossetians for these attacks and also the February 2005 car-bombing of a police station in Gori, Georgia's garrison town for the Ossetian conflict zone.
http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/




"After the 'Rose Revolution' four years ago, Georgia has truly been the country in the former Soviet bloc, after the Baltic states in the early 1990s, to thoroughly remake their country, to reform and to install a democratic government that is a functioning independent state.." -Stockholm Institute for Security and Development
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-08-05-voa48.cfm

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"When I'm in command, every mission is a suicide mission!" -Capt. Zapp Branigan
The United Church of the Latter Day Tangential Tarts

Why South Ossetia, why now? by Peter Lavelle

August 7, 2008, 21:38


There are more than just rumors of war in Georgia’s breakaway republic South Ossetia. People are being killed. And the way things are going, it is very likely some kind of conflict is on the horizon. Will the ceasefire declared by Georgia on Thursday hold? At this point, it is unclear. However, South Ossetia does not war, nor does Russia. That cannot be said of Georgia. If this is the case, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili will sorely regret it.

Why South Ossetia and why now? The broader picture is of course Saakashvili’s NATO ambitions. He needs to unite his country for NATO to deliver on its promise of a MAP (Membership Action Program) to enter this Western military-political block. And Saakashvili desperately wants to have this completed by December when the alliance meets again.

The fact Saakashvili is pressuring South Ossetia now is obvious – the whole world is watching the Summer Olympics in Beijing. And it goes without saying the US will turn a blind eye to Saakashvili’s senseless aggression. NATO will probably do the same, though with the usual pinch of moralizing and some fluff about respecting human rights.

I fully expect that Georgia will bring overwhelming military force to bear at some point. Many civilians will be killed. The whole operation will be called a “police action.” Saakashvili will claim that the status quo was untenable. (This of course strikes me as odd; the current status quo ante is far from perfect, but at least civilian deaths were low).

Can military action against South Ossetia succeed? Certainly so. Georgia can invade and occupy South Ossetia. Western countries and Ukraine have supplied Georgia with an arsenal of heavy weaponry. And American military personnel have trained the new Georgian armed forces. Will Abkhazia honour its commitment to assist South Ossetia if it is invaded? Will Russian irregulars enter the fray? We have heard a lot of grand statements about this, but both claims are problematic at best.

Let’s assume Tbilisi can “win on the battlefield,” but will it be able to re-assimilate South Ossetia and South Ossetians? That will be very hard indeed. For about 15 years – the length of a short generation – this breakaway republic has lived without Georgia, few Georgians, and the Georgian language. And Tbilisi’s brutal behavior to stop South Ossetia’s independence bid after the collapse of the Soviet Union literally created a lot of bad blood. To top it off, most citizens of South Ossetia have Russian passports. And there is strong evidence a South Ossetian identity now exists (and that identity is defined by not being Georgian or part of the Georgian state).

What will Russia do if there is a military strike against South Ossetia? Directly, I suspect it will do very little. Russia using military force should be completely ruled out. But this does not mean Russia will remain neutral. Russia’s people-to-people contacts and trade links with South Ossetia are strong. Tbilisi will have to offer a lot money and reconstruction – not to mention an apology for killing its civilians - to bring South Ossetia back into the fold. And this is the optimist scenario!

This is where Russia will play an indirect role. South Ossetians look to Russia for help. And Russia has done that. Tbilisi’s trade blockade against South Ossetia (a very poor region) has seen Russia step-in to render a hand. Russia has brought peace and stability to this breakaway republic and it wants things to stay that way. A military conflict will completely upset the current arrangement.

By going to war, Tbilisi will have its hands full. It will cut South Ossetian-Russian ties. Not only will the financial costs be high for Tbilisi, but there will be South Ossetian resentment by being cut off from Russia’s North Ossetia. And Russia will object that its fellow passport holders will be subject to civil and human rights limitations and violations.

Georgia is poised to invade South Ossetia because it can. But South Ossetia is not the real aim of all of this. Abkhazia is the real target. South Ossetia is a test to gauge Russia’s reaction. Once active resistance is subdued in South Ossetia, Tbilisi will taunt Abkhazia with “See, your Russian friends didn’t do much for South Ossetia, nor will they really help you. Now come to the table and surrender.” This will be a huge miscalculation. Abkhazia is not South Ossetia.

Abkhazia is stable, self-confident and even rich if investment continues. Abkhazia can also defend itself. A Georgian military operation against South Ossetia will have the opposite impact on Abkhazia – it will turn inward and cease to be part of any negotiated arrangement with Tbilisi. And it wouldn’t surprise me that Russia will draw the line – it will henceforth protect Russian citizens anywhere in the world (just like the US does today).

What will all of this lead to? South Ossetia, if invaded and occupied, will turn into a long-term headache for Tbilisi. A low-level insurgency will harass the Georgian occupiers. The South Ossetian identity will only grow. NATO will also turn its back on Saakashvili - it will not induct a new member that is domestically unstable. Abkhazia will wait it out. Maybe in another 15 years the world will finally recognize the inevitable – Abkhazia is a viable nation-state worthy of independence. I am sure the Abkhazians are more than willing to wait for this to happen. Returning to Tbilisi’s fold is simply not an option anymore.

A parting thought: Saakashvili has it all wrong. The use of force or the threat of force demonstrates just how bankrupt his vision for a united Georgia is. He wants reconciliation by use of a gun. How can one truly and honestly resolve difference when one party puts a gun to the head of the other?

I have said time and again that Tbilisi has to go the hard way to unite the country. And that way is the “demonstration effect.” Make Tbilisi controlled Georgia prosperous, safe, with a future, and not anti-Russia. When all of this really happens, the South Ossetians and Abkhazians might take a moment to reconsider their positions. Nothing succeeds like success!

To date, Saakashvili is one big loser.


http://russiatoday.ru/employee/27



VIDEO -- http://russiatoday.com/news/news/28571/video

READ MORE -- http://russiatoday.com/news/news/28571


READ MORE -- http://en.rian.ru/world/20080801/115488870.html

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War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA

READ MORE -- http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/co...ssia_georgia-0

Georgian fascism continue:

Is Georgian president going to attack Abkhazia now?

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War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA

READ MORE -- http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/co...ssia_georgia-0

Hahahaha.. Well, he can try.

A Short Chronicle of Events of the 1992-93 Georgian-Abkhazian War

August 25, 1992

The commander of the Georgian army, G. Qarqarashvili, issues an ultimatum: the Abkhaz are to halt their unsuccessful war within 24 hours. "Even if 100,000 out of the total number of Georgians perish," Qarqarashvili states, "we shall wipe out the entire population of you Abkhazians."

October 23, 1992



Georgian special forces in Sukhum burn down the state historical archive of Abkhazia and the archive of the Institute of Abkhazian language, history and literature.


READ MORE - http://www.circassianworld.com/croniclewar.html

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War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA

READ MORE -- http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/co...ssia_georgia-0

Stand you Russia on this one if you want to take out your eyes with your own hands.Serbs must always remember Kosovo and never regognised Ahbazia or Osetia indipedence...

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Knave of the Old Republic

Serbia won't recognize those breakaway republics, out of obvious reasons.

We (or I, since this is my personal opinion) support Russia here because this is a payback for Kosovo. If they (NATO) could do it, Russia can do it too.

Either there will be rules, respected by all, or no rules at all.

USA created this jungle, now lets see who has the biggest teeth.

Welcome to the jungle.

Absolutely correct analysis 100 percent. That is precisely my position which I have argued elsewhere.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia: heart of conflict, key to solution, by George Hewitt - Open Democracy

http://www.opendemocracy.net/article...ey-to-solution


Georgia's Trilogy of Tragedies (1. Gamsakhurdia, 2. Shevardnadze, 3. Saak'ashvili Or A Reply to David L. Phillips (pt.2) by George Hewitt
http://www.circassianworld.com/pdf/Atlantic_Council.pdf

The wounds of Tskhinval - Documentary Film