Gun Related Deaths In America 2012

Discussion in 'Gun Control' started by Makedde, Jan 11, 2012.

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  1. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    My stance is based purely on objective literature review methods. My comment reflects the lack of individualism I see amongst the NRA types. Their reliance on being told what to think really isn't healthy!
     
  2. LoneStrSt8

    LoneStrSt8 New Member Past Donor

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    you just can't help showing your bias and your ignorance,can you?
     
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  3. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    Adopting objective literature review methods, leading to a change in personal circumstances, isn't consistent with bias or ignorance. Being told what to think by shallow secondary sources that are designed only to manipulate the gullible? Well then...
     
  4. LoneStrSt8

    LoneStrSt8 New Member Past Donor

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    Point was, if you hadn't been blinded by your bias,ignorance and prejudice, was that NO ONE 'tells' me what to think or say..
     
  5. Colonel K

    Colonel K Well-Known Member

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    But that's what they tell you to say.
     
  6. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    I'm but able to think as an individual, ensuring a position based on rational evaluation of the evidence. You won't see me using secondary sources motivated by trying to blinker folk
     
  7. beenthere

    beenthere Well-Known Member

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    And you of course miss the obvious. I believe you will find better than twice the number of people killed in car accedents than those murdered (from all causes).
     
  8. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    There's nothing much of value from raw data. Given the multiple factors at play (which you kindly illustrated), control variables are a must!
     
  9. beenthere

    beenthere Well-Known Member

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    Of course it is. That's another way of saying that they want to keep their true crime rate numbers under wraps.

    And of course you completely ingored the fact that the Ausy crime rate is so much larger than the U.S. crime rate per capita. Just so you know what per capita means ...."by heads".

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Per_capita
    Per capita is a Latin prepositional phrase: per (preposition, taking the accusative case, meaning "by, by means of") and capita (accusative plural of the noun caput, "head"). The phrase thus means "by heads" or "for each head", i.e. per individual or per person. The term is used in a wide variety of social sciences and statistical research contexts, including government statistics, economic indicators, goldmembers, and built environment studies.


    In this case, Reiv, you have to multiply the number of Ausy crimes for anything by 13.7. That's right 13.7. Since the Ausy population 22.7 million and the U.S. population is 313.05 million. So your assult rate of 770,600 would be 10,557,220 if you had the same population as America does. Your robbery rate would be 806,930. Your rape victoms would amount to 604,170. Shall we compare those numbers to the U.S., Reiv???

    Robbery --- U.S. 367,832 compared to Ausy's 806,930 if Australia had the same population as the U.S.


    Assults --- U.S. 778,901 compared to Ausy's 10,557,220 if Australia had the same population as the U.S.

    Rape --- U.S. 84,767 compared to the Ausy's 604,170 if Australia had the same population as the U.S..

    Murder(of course this is the ONLY one Reiv will point to) from the use of ALL weapons --- U.S. 14,748 copmpared to Ausy's ......And would you look at that the "Australian Bureau of Statistics"" didn't bother to put it down.. Hummmmm, think it was somewhere around 2000, Reiv??? That would put it somewhere around 27,200.

    Dang, Australia is a VERY VIOLENT COUNTRY, Reiv. I don't think the U.K. or Ausys have anything to point their collective finger at about the U.S.
     
  10. LoneStrSt8

    LoneStrSt8 New Member Past Donor

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    Shhhhhhhhhhhh.........
     
  11. beenthere

    beenthere Well-Known Member

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  12. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    There's no lizard person behind the Metropolitan Police. The data is simply useless for time series analysis because of definition problems. British Crime Survey data would be preferred. You won't find the structural break in the data you're after though, so no need to worry downloading the data set and firing up your Stata.

    You'd still be referring to spurious relationship (coupling it with poor international comparison too). That's the problem you have. You know (assuming of course you've bothered to research the topic) that the evidence doesn't support your position. You're therefore reliant on raw data misrepresentation. With regards Aussie data we can refer to one important result: the analysis into gun effects complements the findings found in the US
     
  13. beenthere

    beenthere Well-Known Member

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    But it's hard to dicount data by the FBI and the Australian Bureau of Statistics isn't it Riev. Or do you think your better than they are???

    But of course this makes no difference and isn't scinetific in your view is it Riev.;


    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1818862/posts
    The New American magazine reminds us that March 25th marked the 16th anniversary of Kennesaw, Georgia's ordinance requiring heads of households (with certain exceptions) to keep at least one firearm in their homes.

    The city's population grew from around 5,000 in 1980 to 13,000 by 1996 (latest available estimate). Yet there have been only three murders: two with knives (1984 and 1987) and one with a firearm (1997). After the law went into effect in 1982, crime against persons plummeted 74 percent compared to 1981, and fell another 45 percent in 1983 compared to 1982.

    And it has stayed impressively low. In addition to nearly non-existent homicide (murders have averaged a mere 0.19 per year), the annual number of armed robberies, residential burglaries, commercial burglaries, and rapes have averaged, respectively, 1.69, 31.63, 19.75, and 2.00 through 1998.


    Bet you don't like that one do you;


    Violent Crime Reports
    Rate Per 100K People
    2001 99
    2002 110
    2003 91
    2004 91
    2005 121
    2006 N/A
    2007 104
    2008 93
    2009 91


    Population by Year Change Rate
    2000 21,064 N/A
    2001 22,628 7.42%
    2002 24,594 8.69%
    2003 24,853 1.05%
    2004 27,618 9.99%
    2005 30,303 9.72%
    2006 31,027 2.39%
    2007 31,600 1.85%
    2008 32,689 3.45%
    2009 33,043 1.08



    Year Murder, Man-Slaughter Forcible Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault
    2001 0 0 7 15
    2002 0 2 4 19
    2003 1 0 7 15
    2004 1 2 9 12
    2005 0 0 7 27
    2006 - - - -
    2007 1 2 10 21
    2008 0 2 13 16
    2009 0 3 8 19
    2010 0 2 5 13
     
  14. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    They provide data. They do not provide the econometric analysis required to test gun effects. This is all very obvious

    Any one following the scientific process would appreciate the need to hypothesis test by isolating gun effects

    You've just got spurious relationship designed only to hide from the empirical research available. Its dull as dishwater as its been done to death on this sub-forum
     
  15. beenthere

    beenthere Well-Known Member

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    There you go using a bunch of words to try and get around the fact that Australia has a higher crime rate per capita than the U.S.. Let be boil down what you just said



    "I don't want to admit the fact the Australia's crime rate is higher per capita so will drown them in a flood of words"".

    That was all you really said.
     
  16. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    No, I've summed up that you're adopting an approach which can only be summed as deliberately avoiding the scientific approach.
     
  17. beenthere

    beenthere Well-Known Member

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    Let's see, we have a dead body over here;

    count that as 1 dead body

    {{{Wow, the econometric analysis required!!!}}}

    We have a rape victim being transported to the hospital;

    Mark that down a 1 rape victim.

    {{{Hey, Riev, this is real hard isn't it???}}}

    We have a guy beat to a pulp in the park and the witnesses say the other guy hit him with no cause.

    Mark that down as an assult.

    {{{Are we following the scientific process???}}}

    So tell me, Riev, are you going to try an assult someone you know is packing a firearm?? Come on Riev, be honest, are you??? Are you going to try an rape a woman that you know has a gun on her??? Are you going to burlarize a house where you know a gun lives???
     
  18. beenthere

    beenthere Well-Known Member

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    BULL Crap, you tried to drown me with words saying nothing except you were going to cut and run
     
  19. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    To test hypothesis one needs a large data set. This allows for the inclusion of multiple variables and sufficient degrees of freedom to enable tests of robustness

    Again, you'd know this if you had bothered to research the topic. It seems to me you haven't bothered
     
  20. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    Afraid you haven't got the means to critique what I've said. Its only by correctly referring to the evidence that you can actually join the 'proper' debate
     
  21. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If your data set is wrong or leaves something out, then your conclusion is wrong. You do not prove anything but rely on someone else's work to bolster your already preconceived opinion so all we are left with is your opinion and conflicting studies.
     
  22. GeneralZod

    GeneralZod New Member

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    That is usually the idea when use links/urls. Rely on someone elses doggish stubborn research. Although Reiver is at least trying to use links from sources who take the subject seriously and not gutter rags by some other optimistic chatters.
     
  23. Archer0915

    Archer0915 New Member

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    Funny I linked government studies. Are those not credible?

    Statistics be (*)(*)(*)(*)ed. We are looking at numbers not SD. It is simple and data from governments is the best source. This data does show that when guns go out crime rises. The economic effects can be seen in higher jail populace and court, police and social service costs. Reiver wants to talk economic impact? I can play that game.

    Number of recorded crimes
    Violent crime
    Violent crime includes homicide, assault, sexual assault, robbery and kidnapping
    (sometimes referred to as abduction). Although robbery may include an element
    of property crime, it is included as a violent crime, as the use or threat of violence
    is a more serious offence than the theft.
    Table 1 Victims of violent crimes, 1996–2008 (n)
    Homicide Assault Sexual assault Robbery Kidnapping
    1996 354 114,156 14,542 16,372 478
    1997 364 124,500 14,353 21,305 564
    1998 334 130,903 14,689 23,801 707
    1999 385 134,271 14,699 22,606 766
    2000 362 138,708 16,406 23,336 695
    2001 347 152,283 17,577 26,591 767
    2002 366 159,548 18,718 20,989 706
    2003 341 157,280 18,025 19,709 696
    2004 302 156,849 19,171 16,513 768
    2005 301 166,507 18,695 17,176 729
    2006 321 172,441 19,555 17,375 726
    2007 283 176,427 19,781 17,996 733
    2008 290 170,277 19,733 16,508 782

    • Assaults continue to represent the majority of recorded violent crimes, with an
    overall trend of increased offending since 1996. Although a decrease was recorded
    between 2007 and 2008, there has been a 49 percent increase in assaults between
    1996 and 2008.
    (1996 got rid of guns)
    • Although sexual assault is one of the least reported types of crime, there was
    an overall increase over the period 1996–2007
    [1996 got rid of guns] (although the number of assaults
    decreased between 2007 and 2008). The highest numbers of victims of sexual
    assault and of assaults in general were recorded in 2007.
    • For violent crime, the trend in the past five years has varied. Variability from year
    to year is more pronounced in offences that have a smaller number of victims,
    such as homicide.

    70.28% increase in violent crime

    17% popularion growth.

    12 years 1996-2008

    http://www.ssaa.org.au/research/2010/2010-03-18_australian-crime-facts-and-figures-2009.pdf

    http://www.google.com/publicdata/ex...t=824878800000&tend=1203570000000&hl=en&dl=en

    So there are the numbers for AU from the government. Would you like to see others that correlate? Hey the US with all of our guns is safer man.

    Wait the crime rate in the US is going down.
    [​IMG]

    But wait we have castle laws and kill a car jacker laws as well.
     
  24. GeneralZod

    GeneralZod New Member

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    Archer, i did say that before. Between yourself and Reiver, both are using serious data. My view was to posters like beenthere. Who use gutter journalism which contain a few paragraphs of jignosim and then display random graphs.
     
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  25. Archer0915

    Archer0915 New Member

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    :alien: OOPS:) this thread is so long that I forgot who was who.

    Rep of Apology.
     
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