We are at the peak in world oil production...

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by Jiggs Casey, Mar 11, 2012.

  1. PeakProphet

    PeakProphet Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    1,055
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    38
    No ralfy. I am not arguing, mostly I am making statements about your ability to discuss reserves, or resources, from the position of someone who has NEVER calculated either, let alone done it for SEC company reports, and defended them through the audit process. There are ways that process works, and you know nothing about it, and when presented with some of the basic guidelines, can't even find the WORDS you are using within them. And are instead forced to begin shucking and jiving because you weren't taught what to say by anyone within your religion who has ever done reserve or resource calculations and put their stamp of approval on it.

    You don't KNOW anything ralfy. And you go ahead and let us know how it goes, when you run a reserve audit past the SEC and use words to try and explain what you did...when there isn't a chapter in your bible to play "fill in the blank" with.
     
  2. ralfy

    ralfy Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    659
    Likes Received:
    39
    Trophy Points:
    28
    You were asked to give evidence regarding this, and you have not been able to do so. You've also been asked to explain how this makes the 1976 prediction inaccurate, and you have not given an explanation as well.

    He said that in 2010 following the 2008 survey of oil fields and the 2010 Outlook report, not in 2006. For more details, see the "Four Corners" documentary linked earlier.

    For more evidence, look at the "Catalyst" follow-up feature, also linked earlier.

    The data was acquired from EIA, not from LATOC. The proof is given in my first post.

    The crude oil production peak forecast was for 2005, not 2000, and it was made in 1976 by Hubbert in a TV show, not in LATOC.

    I did not refer to $7 oil in any of my posts in this thread.

    The data that I've been using comes from the EIA, the same agency that you argued shows continued shale oil production through 2040. Except that it doesn't: it shows shale oil production peaking in 2020.

    The data comes from the EIA, the same source that you've been using. More ironic is that you criticize the IEA, even though it has a similar forecast as the EIA.

    The only references you gave contradicted your arguments, like the definition of recoverable reserves and the EIA forecast for shale oil (which you thought argued continued production through 2040 when it showed shale oil production peaking in 2020).

    Your other arguments are self-contradictory, such as showing "disdain" for agencies like the EIA and IEA while using their arguments (e.g., reserves are irrelevant) to bolster your views.

    The rest you did not prove at all, such as Hubbert's 1938 argument concerning peak oil or your argument that the correlation between GDP and oil is not correct.

    I'm now putting you in my ignore list.
     
  3. ralfy

    ralfy Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    659
    Likes Received:
    39
    Trophy Points:
    28
    "Oil prices started to skyrocket when one quarter of global supplies went into irreversible decline"

    http://crudeoilpeak.info/oil-prices...lobal-supplies-went-into-irreversible-decline

    The article looks at data from another source, the BP Statistical Review for 2014, to see what is underneath the growth curve presented by the EIA. The gist is given in the title of the article.

    Finally,

    "Commentary: Interview with Steve Kopits"

    http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-04-30/commentary-interview-with-steve-kopits

    Video lecture and presentation (PDF):

    "Global Oil Market Forecasting: Main Approaches & Key Drivers"

    http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/ev...arket-forecasting-main-approaches-key-drivers

    One of the key points is capital expenditures, which is mentioned at the start of the interview.
     
  4. PeakProphet

    PeakProphet Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    1,055
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Hubbert playing kick the can in various forms for 38 years is the point. Please do tell…how many MORE claims of peak can be expected, considering the poor history of prognostication of your Prophet and his modern disciples?

    I already provided the National Geographic reference to his claim. Peak oil in 2006. Or would it be better to characterize it as "yet another" peak oil claim?

    As best I can tell, your cut and paste drive by parroting has nothing to do with proof, and your avoidance, or ignorance of, even the most basic tenets of your religious beliefs itself calls into question whether or not you have been purposefully sent here as a missionary looking for more of the gullible.

    ONE of Hubbert's claims was made in 1976. And as you have demonstrated, you aren't even AWARE of his claims, let alone the basis for them. You have been sent form with a story to sell. Within no more than a few posts it becomes quite definitive that you know nothing about the topic not provided in advance, and lack even the ability to learn from the mistakes pointed out to you. You refuse to comment on your involvement in other church forums, where they would gladly accept your gospel, and instead come here where people are allowed to think without the treatment your church dispenses to those who dare to do so.

    Why don't you run off and convert THEM? Surely there are some left who need convinced with a barrage of cutting and pasting partial information?

    The place you referenced as a forum of "data" did. So this was part of the "data" you learned. So how STUPID was collecting data…there?

    Fatih Birol declaring peak oil in 2006 is a fact. LATOC and their "data" as presented in provided written materials is a fact. Hubbert declaring peak oils in the US you can't even FIND are a fact. Hubbert's method being used by Colin Campbell in 1989 to predict peak oil in 1989 is a fact. So is the fact that it didn't happen. EIA presentations at national technical conferences that YOU can't be bothered to show up for are facts, and what they presented, and explained at those conferences, are FACTS. Your claimed collection of DATA from religious organizations (based on the claims of their founders) calls into question your motivation for cutting and pasting drivel here.

    Why are you looking for converts…here?

    A wise move, when one is a parrot.

    - - - Updated - - -

    and another is who Kopits NO LONGER WORKS FOR….itself an interesting tidbit that parrots won't mention.
     
  5. ralfy

    ralfy Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    659
    Likes Received:
    39
    Trophy Points:
    28
    "Fossil industry is the subprime danger of this cycle"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...try-is-the-subprime-danger-of-this-cycle.html

    "Orwellian Newspeak and the oil industry's fake abundance story"

    http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2014/07/orwellian-newspeak-and-oil-industrys.html

    in reference to two facts given by by the EIA itself in terms of world oil production growth and prices.
     
  6. PeakProphet

    PeakProphet Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    1,055
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Thank you for yet another headline with no thought. Polly want a cracker?
     
  7. ralfy

    ralfy Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    659
    Likes Received:
    39
    Trophy Points:
    28
  8. PeakProphet

    PeakProphet Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    1,055
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    38

Share This Page