Jim Rogers: 100% chance of another 2008 crash

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by DA60, Nov 19, 2011.

  1. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    How low is 'weak enough'?

    Or do you even know?


    And where exactly did I say the dollar will 'collapse'?
     
  2. Landru Guide Us

    Landru Guide Us Banned

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    According to you the dollar will collapse, so this issue shouldn't bother you at all. When will the dollar collapse again, and how will we know?
     
  3. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I will ask you again:

    How low of a greenback is 'weak enough'?


    And where EXACTLY did I say the dollar will 'collapse'?
     
  4. Landru Guide Us

    Landru Guide Us Banned

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    So the dollar isn't going to collapse? Bacardi thinks it will and I was speaking to him.

    As to your "question" the answer is simple: when the dollar is weak enough that manufacturing in the US produces more of a profit to a manufacturer or an investor in any particular other country, then manufacturers in the other countries will move here, or capital will.

    Why does this simple thesis mystify you? I thought you were the market evangelist.
     
  5. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I think the dollar will definitely fall and probably lose it's reserve currency status eventually.
    But 'collapse' (to me) suggests a Zimbabwe/Weimar-type fall - and I don't think it will fall that much anytime soon, if ever.
    But bacardi knows more about economics then I do....so....

    Next time, don't put words in my mouth.

    If you don't know I said it - please don't say I did.

    I have NEVER said I was an economic expert...NEVER.


    You used the term 'A 10% decline is not a big deal.'.

    So...for the third time...how low on the dollar index do you call a 'big deal'?
     
  6. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    now you are contradicting yourself......first you say the economy and the dollar is strong and now you are saying that a cheap dollar will bring back industrial jobs.....in order to bring back industrial jobs the dollar would have to lose at least half its value! :)
     
  7. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    the dollar needs to be a heck of alot lower than it is now in order to bring back industrial jobs,,,,,,not easy to compete with 1 dollar per hour jobs LOL!
     
  8. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    for once I agree with you LOL :)

    But first the dollar "MUST" collapse and then yes......jobs will return!
     
  9. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    I would say the dollar must fall enough to make us rich in gold and silver :mrgreen:
     
  10. Roon

    Roon Well-Known Member

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    You attempted to make the point that if something is complex simple math does not apply. I was just pointing out how stupid that sounds.


    No it isn't. We SLASHED government spending at the end of WWII. We had a lot of factories and plenty of fresh from Europe troops to work in them. Nobody had to ration anymore and demand boomed both in Europe and at home. The factories supplied that demand and had plenty of freshly unemployed troops to staff them. None of this happened with borrowed money, it was the private sector taking care of business and they had the money to do it because of a record high savings rate post WWII to the tune of 25%.


    Or you can simply save your money and just take a little longer to do it but not owe anyone money. That is of course the smart way to do it.

    It's only 50 because you owe most of that to someone at interest.
     
  11. Landru Guide Us

    Landru Guide Us Banned

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    Your point failed.

    BUZZZZ. You lose. Spending was pretty level after WWII, what with the GI bill and the Marshal Plan and the Interstate Highway bill.

    We did cut the military and we should do that now too. Military spending is mostly dead weight on the economy (which is another instance showing how conservatives don't understand basic economic principles)

    Nope, that's the stupid way. Using this silly procedure, by the time you get the money the oppurtunity is gone. If you have to save up to buy a car to take a more lucratic job in another city, the job will be gone. If you borrow, buy the car, take the job, pay off the car, you're wealthier, the lender is wealthier and there is more tax revenue. Savvy?

    Here's a concept: credit is a good thing and the basis of modern economic wealth. It's another instance showing how conservatives don't understand basic economic principles.

    Not when rates are at historic lows like are they are now. **********s want to borrow when rates get high. That's another reason conservative don't understand basic economic principles.
     
  12. Landru Guide Us

    Landru Guide Us Banned

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    So you DO think the dollar will collapse. Or you don't.

    Which is it man!
     
  13. Roon

    Roon Well-Known Member

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    How do you figure?

    How can spending be level when we slashed military? If your idea's on how the macro economy works it would have made sense to simply move that Military spending into the domestic economy...but we didn't, why do you suppose that is?

    I noticed you had nothing to say in regards to the private sector and the record high savings rate leading to the economic recovery. Hard to argue with the truth eh?

    No, not savvy. What if you borrow apply for the job and don't get it. Now you are REALLY poor. Just like when you borrow trillions to create jobs but no jobs get created.....now you are up (*)(*)(*)(*) creek without a paddle. Whereas if you would have just spent what you already KNOW you have and not relied upon factors outside your control on the gamble that your future will be better you would never lose.

    Oh I understand them better than you it would seem. You are just misguided into thinking that credit is what makes the world go round. You can live really well off credit for a while and I suppose on paper you could figure a way to live on nothing but credit if the stars aligned and everything went your way...but that cannot be counted upon. That is why a high savings rate will always be superior to credit. Anything worth having is worth waiting for.

    Rofl, I am not sure you understand much of anything. Unless the interest rate is 0 you are being taken advantage of.
     
  14. Roon

    Roon Well-Known Member

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    It's going to collapse, although Europe will go first.

    It's going to be the Euro failing or the $700 trillion derivative bomb that is going to take everything down. The anticipation is killing me.
     
  15. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    LOL don't you read my posts? I have been saying for over a year now that there will be a liquidity crisis hitting the US in the next few years and yes the dollar will collapse and gold will explode in price!
     
  16. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    actually if europe goes so will the US and if the US goes so will europe....the banks are so inter-dependant on each other that nobody is immune!
     
  17. Clint Torres

    Clint Torres New Member

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    Jim is talking propaganda. Fact is there is tons of money held up in accounts of all banks, investment corporations, and bonds. The only reason there will be a market crash is when they change US Political paridigm from democrat to republican. It happens every time the change from dems to reps. When Clinton changed to Booosh in 2000, the worlds invostors pulled their money out of tech, medical, and small cap investments eary that year to later invest in the republican backed investments of oil, defense, real estate, and banks. When Booosh's time was up and the economy was a tragety, the investors pulled their money out of the republican investments going back into high tech, medical, pharmasutical, and small capital stocks.

    But just like the past they will call it a market crash to scare all the fools who are followers, and force you to focus on Europe just like they blamed it on the tech and dot com bubble in 2000, and blamed the housing crisis in 2008. Fact is after the 90 day sell period the markets go back up rather fast. The window of opportunity to buy is only one month. And after 3 to 6 months it is back near record highs.

    So you can watch the ads and propaganda and lose or use your own smarts to win.
     
  18. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    I can't believe the propaganda I just read above :mrgreen:

    As far as I am concerned there is no difference between the dems or republicans.....the US has spent beyond its means for too long and its time to pay the piper......all Bernacke can do now is print money and buy treasuries in order to keep interest rates low......but soon even this will fail.....thats when the day of reckoning will happen and trust me....it won't be pretty!
     
  19. Clint Torres

    Clint Torres New Member

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    You got that right.

    But markets and economics just dont crash on their own, they need help, and the insiders and wealthy move the investment market. All those who invested in municiples and t-bills will be left with a big fat goose egg if they hold on to it. And that time will be within 18 months, when the insiders pull their money out of municiples, t-bills and bonds to start the massive crash.

    Some think it's safe to invest in bonds, but fact is so was ENRON and MF Global. Those still holding worthless paper will be broke as the USA. Where is the money you ask? in the pockets of the investment manager. It's all digital and the real money is in some bank account abroad making 6% interest.
     
  20. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    many are calling bonds and treasuries in the biggest bubble of all time!
     
  21. Clint Torres

    Clint Torres New Member

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    True: it is building to epic proportions, and for it ot pop, the insiders and those in the know will dump it all at one time, and with the day traders and money fund managers watching it like a hawk, they will also jump to dump as fast as they can.

    Because the world spins clockwise, the Asians have the advantage of acting first due to "Time". As a result, since they hold massive amounts of US paper (some estimates go as high as 7 trillion), when they pull out, the ones sill holding investments in mutual funds, municiple investments, retirement investments, bond investments, money manager funds, hedge funds (a variety of funds), and investment banks, will all be holding worthless paper.

    I give it 18 months. All it will take to set off this burst will be the USA screwing around and pushing China to modify their currency. As a result, China's government run investment corporations will say screw you America and pull out faster than electronics can compute.

    So you see, the buble will burst but only if someone acts, and the first to act will make massive amounts of money, leaving the fools who buy into "the USA being a safe place to invest" broke and worthless.
     
  22. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I don't doubt that what you say could happen - my only disagreement is with the time frame.
    I think that West will shoot many more Keynesian bullets before they run out.

    So I think it might take 5 or even ten years to come to past.

    But I hope not.

    Since it is (IMO) destined to happen, then the faster it does then the better for the world in the long run.
     
  23. Clint Torres

    Clint Torres New Member

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    Perhaps you misunderstood, the "Time" is when the Chinese and other close monitors of electronic transactions will start the withdraw of their money in US T-bills and Bonds through vairous forms of investments before the US markets and news media opens on a black monday.

    But the 18 months is when and if they change from democrat to republican president.

    Here is why:

    1) The war engineers are planning another massive occupation in Iran, they have all ready started their propaganda about weapons of mass destruction, and next they will hype the "terror" fear in the public. They are priming for a Republican president. When March 2012 comes, and they announce the republican running mate, it will likely be a man of the defense industry, Maybe even rumsfield. Then will come the pullout of all the money stashed in the huge buble of t-bills and municiples, and bonds. In addition, the industry sectors of Medical, pharmasutical, and technology, and construction industry, will also be hit very hard.

    Then we will see the market crash within 90 to 120 days. Then when the bottom of the crash is made in October or November of 2012, the investors will take all that money they pulled out of bonds and t-bills, and buy into all the republican backed industry stocks: i.e., Defense, Oil, real estate, banking, and insurance. But primarily Defense. Because there will be a lot of money to be made off the US taxpayer when they go to war agian for another 10 years.
     
  24. headhawg7

    headhawg7 Well-Known Member

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    Its quite simple why people believe it to be true....they have been told by the media spin machine...

    If CNBC, FBN, CNN, Fox news, etc...say it is true then it must be true

    If the university professors say it is true then it must be true

    Its a sad state of affairs when people so blindly accept that booms and busts are a natural part of economics and finance. It is only true because we have a currency that is being manipulated by the people who benefit from the manipulation. The banks. The banks through the FED and Federal reserve act perpetuate this scam. It will fail...it has to fail. It may be tomorrow of 10 years from now but the total collapse of the world economic model is coming. First in the eurozone then the dollar. $700 trillion in derivatives and other fancy debt instruments created by the banks and wall street will bring the system down. I wish it wasn't so...but it is.
     
    DA60 and (deleted member) like this.
  25. Clint Torres

    Clint Torres New Member

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    You got that right:

    People believe in anything those fools on cable tell them. Makes for good entertainment. And they must be moving the markets quite will with their manipulation.

    Let's face it, where their is a lot of money built up in the investment maret, there will be someone with a plan to take most of it away before others catch on. Those who follow the media propaganda will be too late and will end up losers as always.

    Now that the jig is up on mortgage backed securities. The greed mongers will go for the treasury sector. YOu can bet when this goes belly up and all the fools lose their retirement and life savings, it will be real news too late. And I'll be sitting on the sidelines waiting for the DOW to hit 5800 to buy back in.

    Stuff happens. Remember, real investors pull out for profit, and buy in when the time is right.
     

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