Austrian Economist, Robert Murphy on the Debt Ceiling

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by DA60, Jul 21, 2011.

  1. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    I don't mind Austrian's and I do understand what they are talking about. I say extreme stuff on this site just because it seems everyone is extreme in their beliefs, so it just seems the norm. I'm open to any opinion as long as it can be debated openly with out arrogance and stubbornness applied to it. But on this site, Libertarian's seem to me stuck in their own train of thought regardless of what anyone says.

    The reason Austrian economics is not taught in mainstream academia is because it can not be applied to the present day global economy. It is more of a philosophy. You guys compare unsophisticated economies to an incredibly complex economy. We have boom and busts now simply because of how technologically advanced our economy is, not because of the Fed or the Govt. If you think that with out the Fed, with out central planning, with out regulation, that the markets could regulate themselves in our incredibly sophisticated economy than you are out of your mind.

    Things people can do today to manipulate markets were impossible 100 years ago. The computer and the financial markets has completely changed how economies work. There's just absolutely no place for Austrian economics in the real world. Which is why it isn't. America and the rest of the world does things for a reason. There isn't some massive conspiracy to destroy the universe by educated economists.
     
  2. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    And your unbiased evidence of this is...?
     
  3. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    First off it's impossible to have an objective comparison between current day central planning economies and Austrian based economies, simply because there isn't a single Austrian based economy that exists unless you dig deep in to some third world countries. So as unbiased evidence of the success of our current economic system... I guess per capita GDP is a good start.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    And could you now show me the GDP chart of America under an Austrian School style economy during that time?

    Because without it...there is absolutely no way to factually say that Keynesian economics works better during that time frame.

    Plus, you should be aware that every major country in the world was either destroyed and/or broke after ww2 (except America). Thusly the United States had a monumental advantage for close to a generation on all other major countries during that time.
    It would have been virtually impossible not to have succeeded under that advantage.


    In fact, your original statement: 'If you think that with out the Fed, with out central planning, with out regulation, that the markets could regulate themselves in our incredibly sophisticated economy than you are out of your mind.'

    is COMPLETELY impossible to prove.

    And you should have known that before you typed it.
     
  5. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    Of course there is no way to prove it because there is no sample size for Austrian economic based economies in the last century. Just like there is no way to prove what you are saying works. I at least can show a graph of reality, whereas you can't show me anything except links to some kook blog sites of people talking about how bad our current system is.

    All you guys do is critique the current system, yet you don't listen to any critiques of the alternative. There is a reason why you guys are not considered mainstream. Just like in the world of science, creationists are not seen as mainstream when it comes to evolution. So you can be part of the crazy minority that no one will ever listen to, or you can try to understand what the majority is saying.
     
  6. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    The 'crazy minority' like Schiff, Faber, Rogers...that accurately predicted (to varying extents) the housing collapse and economic collapse that followed.

    Have you seen the minutes released from the Fed meetings before the housing bust?

    Guys like Bernanke and Geithner did not have a clue what was coming. It's on the record.

    The two most powerful government economists presently in America had virtually no idea of the severity of the housing collapse as it began to unfold.

    http://www.politicalforum.com/econo...w-relatively-soft-landing-housing-2006-a.html


    And it is obvious why governments prefer Keynesian, big government spending to Austrian School, small government, fiscal frugality.

    Bigger governments means more money, more buraeucratic jobs and more power.

    Austrian School means less of all of the above.

    No wonder Washington loves Keynes.
     
  7. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    They predicted the housing bust. Please tell me what else they have predicted right. Because everything Peter Schiff said would happen after the housing collapse did the complete opposite. So he was actually wrong on more things than he was right. So please tell me everything they have said that was right other than the housing collapse. Thanks!
     
  8. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Everything?

    Lol.

    I don't even begin to have the time. Waaaaay too many to list.

    Just listen to Schiff's radio show and Marc Faber's and Jim Roger's blogs (they are both on twitter). They post almost daily.

    http://www.schiffradio.com/


    The bottom line is...these guys saw the obvious housing bust coming and the Keynesian government big shots missed it.

    In fact, a TON of Keynesian economists missed it.

    Almost all of them apparently.

    The largest, most obvious (that it was going to happen) economic collapse in America in half a century and almost every Keynesian big shot missed it.

    Yeah...they REALLY know their stuff...not.
     
  9. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    So the only evidence you have of Austrian economics being more efficient than Keynesian economics is the recent housing bust? LOL!!!!

    And what's funny is this doesn't even have to deal with macroeconomics which Keynes focused more on. You guys predicted a bust in a single market! Great job, you guys obviously understand how the world works, lol!!

    You should see what Schiff said would happen after the housing bust. Everything he said would happen did the complete opposite. So being wrong on lots of things doesn't matter as long as you were right about 1 thing. Great philosophy!!
     
  10. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    So you are saying that every single thing Peter Schiff said would happen after the housing bust did the COMPLETE OPPOSITE?

    Come on man...if you are going to continue to make these illogical, exaggerated statements, people are going to eventually stop taking you seriously.

    I sincerely suggest you learn exactitude.


    Listen to his radio show or go to YouTube and listen to his spots.

    Sure he makes mistakes. And he says a lot of right things as well.

    Personally, I trust Faber and Rogers more.

    Schiff sells gold/silver so naturally there is a biased there.


    Bye for now.
     
  11. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    Lol! So since they said one thing right and you continue to make these silly, exaggerated statements, people are going to eventually stop taking you seriously. Oh wait... they already have, hahaha. You are in the minority in the world of economics, yet you seem like you have it all figured out.

    Schiff's main financial strategy after the housing collapse was to short the dollar. His theory was that people would scramble out of the dollar causing hyperinflation. He has predicted hyperinflation every year since 2007.

    His other theory was that people would park their money in foreign equity markets getting out of America. What happened? Foreign equity markets collapsed harder than America and people started funneling money back in to American Govt debt.

    The dollar actually became stronger after the crisis because people scrambled to get dollars by liquidating their assets. This was the complete opposite of what Schiff said would happen.

    His theory was that everyone would do what they could to get rid of their dollars and get away from America... when everyone did the complete opposite. People started saving USD like crazy and the world started parking their USD in Govt debt like never before causing yields on treasuries to be so low that they might even be outpaced by inflation.

    And the reason he got this wrong is because Austrian's have a fundamental misunderstanding of macroeconomics. So good job on getting one thing right!! You guys will go down in history as the smartest economic theory that no one in the entire world uses.
     
  12. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Well, you are, as usual, wildly exaggerating.

    But that's for you two to debate. I suggest you call in to his radio show and give him a piece of your mind. Let us know when you do will you, as his radio shows are available for podcast?


    Btw - Schiff has pushed gold and silver more then anything else well before the crash.

    Care to compare how gold/silver have done since mid '07 compared to Spyders? Or the DOW? Or the CAC? Or the TSX?...


    Let me know when you have some new and accurate information to bring to this discussion.

    I have better things to do then to get in childish back-and-forths with Keynesians who indulge in inexactitudes and over-emotional (apparently) responses.


    Have a nice day.
     
  13. freakonature

    freakonature Well-Known Member

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    The dollar actually became stronger, aye? This post seems about par for the course for you.
     
  14. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    I really would strongly suggest that you stop responding... You are making a fool of yourself.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I would like to add that for the record, I DO NOT agree 100% with what Peter Schiff says.

    He is arrogant and does get a bit carried away with doomsday scenarios.

    Plus, he sells primarily gold/silver and foreign stocks...so there is an obvious bias there.

    But his general assertions about the crash, the economy, the housing market, the government, fiat currencies, the future of precious metals and the general direction of Keynesian-based economies has been almost spot on, IMO.


    And, as always, I AM NO EXPERT.
     
  16. AbsoluteVoluntarist

    AbsoluteVoluntarist New Member

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    One of the most fundamental errors in modern academia is the idea that "social sciences" can be treated like natural scientists. You cannot test human societies and human economies. You cannot change one variable to an economy and quantify effects against a control. You cannot subject it to the "rigors of the scientific method." Thus, you must base your understanding on deductive logic, upon which, by the way, even the scientific method of the natural sciences is based.
     
  17. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Are you going to answer him or not?
     
  18. AbsoluteVoluntarist

    AbsoluteVoluntarist New Member

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    Hmm...looks like you just hit upon why Austrians are skeptical of attempting to use the scientific method to study something it's impossible to do experiments on.

    GDP is a poor statistic because it includes wasteful government spending along with actual economic production, not discerning between wasteful growth and growth that is actually the best investment of resources in terms of improving standard of living.

    Furthermore, you cannot say that the economic production we have had is because of government meddling or in spite of it and that it wouldn't have grown even more had the market been freer.

    Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it looks like this graph is weighted against other fiat currencies, which could be inflating even faster than the dollar. You seem to claim this hasn't translated into price inflation, yet we've seen higher prices for medical care, tuition, food, and gas (currently the highest ever for this time year!). According to Shadowstats, price inflation is over 10% using the 1980 method of calculation. Due to the extreme growth of the monetary supply over the past several years, this is likely to get much worse, though we can't predict the precise timing of that.

    Owning precious metals is an inflation hedge. If you bought $20 of gold in 1912, your descendants would have something like $1500 worth of gold. If you kept the $20, they'd still have...$20. I doubt many holders of gold are kicking themselves about anything.
     
  19. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    So what is not a "poor" statistic?

    Either can you. However I can show you what happens when they use my theory.

    Lol, Shadowstats is a bunch of idiots. They do not do their own inflation calculation. They simply make up some arbitrary number and say based on what they believe the changes to CPI were, inflation should be at "x" amount right now. Bunch of voodoo math which I'm sure you believe.

    Wait a second. I thought prices going up was a bad thing? So inflation of gold is the only good kind of inflation?
     
  20. AbsoluteVoluntarist

    AbsoluteVoluntarist New Member

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    Ones measuring standard of living I'd consider a bit more relevant, though statistics are always dubious. I accept that standard of living has gone up over the years. But it was despite the state, not because of the state.

    This is like someone in 1800 saying, "You can't empirically show that anything would improve if we had equal rights for women."

    It's an estimate based on the methods of 1980. The real voodoo is how the government always changed the measuring of the statistics to make itself look better. You can't properly judge how bad the inflation relative to the past is if you keep manipulating the measuring stick.

    Inflation is bad and the inflation of the price of gold proves. It's the smart thing to own gold or other hard assets in an inflationary atmosphere like the one we've been living in for the past 100 years, as opposed to holding it in pieces of paper backed by the promises of politicians.
     
  21. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    And our standard of living is one of the highest in the world. So what is your problem now?

    No it isn't. Equal rights is subjective and you can not quantify it.

    No it isn't. Look at their graph. It is not using 1980 methods. It is using a weighted average based on what they "believe" the inflation rate changed based on 1980 changes. They do not do any calculations themselves, they simply adjust whatever the inflation rate the BLS comes up with based on their own arbitrary number. It is pure voodoo math.

    That's the point of inflation. It's smart to get rid of your dollars and buy assets that inflate in value. Great job!! You should be in the world of finance.
     
  22. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I guess akphidelt2007 won't be answering that question.

    The logical conclusion is because he cannot.

    Noted.
     
  23. thediplomat2.0

    thediplomat2.0 Banned

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    Just to reinforce the claims by Austrian economists, you also had Keynesians such as Nouriel Roubini predicting the crash of the housing bubble, and the economic downturn that would ensue afterwards.
     
  24. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    So your one claim to economic fame is predicting the housing bubble. Amazing!! Congrats, you guys obviously have economics figured out, lol.
     
  25. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    You clearly do not know much about Peter Schiff.

    He called for people to get out of US equities, US real estate and the dollar YEARS before the housing collapse.

    He advocated people go into precious metals (and also offshore equities).

    Let's see how that worked out:

    [​IMG]

    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

    So the dollar has lost over 25% of it's value since the Keynesian ultra low interest rates began.

    And need we even mention how lousy U.S. real estate has done in that time?


    Now let's check how gold and silver have done in comparison to U.S. indexes in the last ten years of massive government spending/debt (government spending has doubled between 2001 and 2012) and artificially low interest rates:

    The DOW has gone up less then 30% in the last ten years...in TOTAL.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/indexes/chart/?q=djia-I

    While gold and silver?

    Have gone up over 480% and over 630%, respectively in that time.



    [​IMG]

    http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html


    [​IMG]

    http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html
     

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