Germany is cutting solar-power subsidies because they are expensive and inefficient

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Professor Peabody, Feb 20, 2012.

  1. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    If solar works, it doesn't need government subsidies.

    If solar doesn't work government subsidies are a waste of taxpayer money.
     
  2. Silhouette

    Silhouette New Member

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    Likewise:

    If nuclear works, it doesn't need government subsidies.

    If BigOil works, they don't need government subsidies [in the form of tax loopholes].

    This thread fails to mention that the "solar" being spoken about is solar photovoltaics and not solar thermal steam, which is on the rise and new facilities are being rapidly built worldwide. Germany builds many of the components for this boon-business..
     
  3. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Germany does build components for that boon-doggle business, but what does that have to do with anything? Please post and article from a reliable news source showing a vigorous "solar thermal" program replacing photovoltaic.

    Here's where Germany is going.....

    Sorry Silhouette, solar thermal is simply breathing it's last gasps or a novelty power source.
     
  4. Windigo

    Windigo Banned

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    Not for you it isn't. Look at the residential load. Your residential only make a portion of that. Your load will be the highest at night when your solar panels aren't producing.

    Your graph is also inaccurate. Too much aggregation. The maximum load that the power company sees depends on the time of year. In the winter it is in the morning. In the summer its early evening.
     
  5. Windigo

    Windigo Banned

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    How is the grid archaic??? Have you discovered the holy grail of energy technology and invented cheep and efficient storage. I applaud you because you are going to be a very rich man.
     
  6. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    forgot to take your medication?

    Perhaps take it and make some more sense?
     
  7. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    As I already pointed out nobody says 100% solar.

    If you have better graphs give them.
     
  8. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Originally Posted by Bluesguy View Post
    No don't enter subsides, subsides don't lower the cost, they merely make someone else pay part of the cost.

    No it's not more complicated than that, subsidies do not lower the cost of something they shift part of the cost to someone else. So when you calcualte whether solar power is cost effective don't enter the subsidy, calculate it on the actual cost.


    No you don't your just desperate to shift the discussion to what you assert I think.

    Tell you what, I will tell you what I think and you tell me what you think and we will discuss what each other thinks, else if you are going to just make up what I think and debate that, I'll just sit on sidelines and watch.

    You probably don't realize that peak power from solar is limited to the 2.5 hours either side on noon on average. You probably don't realize that residential usage begins to ramp up in the mid-late after noon as people start getting home and before as programmed thermostats start heating and cooling to comfort levels. The as people get home and start washing clothes, cooking food, turning on lights, turning on the big screens, firing up the computers and game systems and then take hot showers.

    And do you support and promote electric cars? Do you make the argument that since they will be charged at night they won't cause additional load on the grid?

    Where does all that power come from at night?

    It's not quick response plants you need which are designed for short period additional powers of about 10%. It's a maximum peak load capable plant that also has to provide power during cloudy days. And that means when the solar is producing it is sitting there losing money. And when the solar is not producing IT is sitting there losing money.

    That's the problem, it can't. It requires a full blown backup system, not just a 30% over capacity. A FULL BLOWN BACKUP. That is expensive and who wants to invest in plant that is only going to operate occasionally and even when it does no where near it's capacity? That's bad business.


    Up to one percent with some of the newer thinners losing 5% in just the first few months and then 1% a year. But even at .7% that's 20% by the end of the life.

    In America, and in the South it cost me almost $3000 a year to insure my home and get wind coverage, how solar panels will get damaged. And at that I have a $5000 deductible. Add $40,000 in solar panels on my roof and the insurance cost would wipe out any savings even if they operated at max efficiency and never needed a dollar worths of maintenance.

    And I bet it's prorated warranty so they they have covered their cost for any replacement long before then. The fact is solar panels and their electronics and frames and glass and gaskets and wiring are exposed to the elements. And they generate heat which degrades them and their components. So to assert they will be maintenance free is a stretch.


    Not when you run all the numbers, the payoff just gets further out.

    You should see some of the limbs I pulled off my roof this morning. You should hear my house getting hit with flying debris during a tropical storm or hurricane. My roof is made up of asphalt and rocks and it has to be repaired during it's life time. My venting and gaskets have to be replaces about every 5 years. Eves had to be inspected and repaired where water has caused any damage. They aren't under your roof they are ON your roof.
     
  9. James Cessna

    James Cessna New Member

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    In most cities solar power energy sources only work 40% of the time. They don’t work at night and they don’t work during cloudy, overcast conditions.

    This makes their ROI (return on investment) unreasonably very small.

    This is why all the solar energy companies are now declaring bankruptcy and going out of business!

    If Obama knew anything at all about finance and economics, he would have realized this and not invested any of the U.S. taxpayer’s money in these failed projects.

    Obama is a failure when it comes to his foolish economic policies.

    Too bad he has to take our national economy down with him!
     
  10. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    What you of course fail to realise is , that the shift is meant to foreign consumers OR/AND lessen to reliance on foreign imports .


    less oil and gas imports is GOOD for a country. MORE exports is GOOD for a country and that is what this is designed to do. Develop those industrys INSIDE germany .


    Already gave statistics for both

    And for the 10th time, solar is meant to take part of the energy needs not all.


    AS if every power plant works at 100% capacity.

    A power suplly is always designed to deliver at peak and always is mostly NOT delivering that. They arent "loosing" money thats just how it has to be designed in a modern world.

    As for solar it just takes up part of that.

    Is that loosing money? Not really if you factor in everything surrounding it.




    EOL means 32 years to you? If those panels provide for 32 years of solar power they repayed themseleves several times back without any subsidy.

    And yes cheaper panels might loose more. But lets not forget this is max guaranteed plenty of test out there show they loose less. Making it not really an issue.



    hey thats your problem not mine or any germans.

    The topic is germany in case you dont realise it and again, there is no extra insurance costs.


    Depends on wich brands, better offer full warranty. It also depends on local laws in germany itself to wich I am not really familiar.

    BS

    I gave the numbers, if you claim the costs exceeds the benefits in germany do give those costs.


    There are suprsingly little tropical storms in germany. Anything ripping of those panels usualy rips of your roof as well(as they are attached to it).

    More excuses, with the subsidy it was great and very safe investment, even if germany get rid of them completly its still quite a safe investment.
     
  11. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    11the time: nobody (but people who dont like them) propose to replace ALL power plants with solar .


    Not really, I already gave the numbers they are quite profitable. What you are "forgetting" is a gas/oil/coal power plant needs its resources to work, solar panels dont.



    All? Funny

    http://www.renewablepowernews.com/archives/2897

    Thats just the USA.

    If the companies disapear in the USA, no doubt elsewhere it will be picked up, another indutrie lost to foreign companys, way to go.
     
  12. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Specious, it doesn't change the fact that the actual cost includes the subsidy.


    And they have been addressed, peak residential is after the sun is low or not at all, commerial goes outside the peak sun hours.

    And for the 11th time that means you have to have a full blown system to take over when the solar cannot produce, is losing money.

    They work at 100% of demand which means they are designed for about 130% of demand that allows for short term peaks and maintenance downtime. The fact is with a solar system you have to able to provide that 100% of demand when it is at night or during daytime when there is not enough sunlight. That means having TWO systems and that is highly inefficient. Power plants are designed to run 24/7 to return the investments made to build them, when they sit idle they do not make any money to payback that investment.

    They are running at 20% capacity and making money. They aren't sitting there idle making money.

    How much of it?

    Yes losing money when it is not producing. There is STILL overhead to pay for and the loans and bonds that were issued to build them STILL have to be paid off.


    No about 20.

    Those aren't cheaper.

    One of the areas in the US that is tauted for solar IS the South because of the longer daylight hours and closer to the equator. Well one tropical storm or hurricane can wipe them out.
    So not such thing as violent storms, tornadoes or hail in Germany? No one insures their homes and roofs in Germany?

    Nope, the cost are never made up.
     
  13. Margot

    Margot Account closed, not banned

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    Check google images for solar applications all over Houston. They predate Obama.
     
  14. Windigo

    Windigo Banned

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    Why??? The base resource isn't gas, or sun, or wind. Its money. Why spend money on expensive inefficient energy like solar when you can spend it on efficient conventional gas and coal generation? We aren't exactly talking about foreign oil here.

    Its only through AGW theory that you can justify this waste of money. And even then you are losing because its becoming more and more clear that the inefficient backup needed for solar and wind emits more CO2 than you offset. You'd be better off running conventional combined cycle units than the inefficient backups.

    You cannot justify this waste both financially or environmentally.
     
  15. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    No its not, a gass power plant also costs money AND needs gas its entire operating life, the more power you want to more it costs.

    Not so with solar/wind and others.

    And how many oil do you think GERMANY has?

    The issue is investing in an industry to get a profitable return on it.



    AGW? Probably clilmate change you reference?

    I culdnt care less about that and so do most politicians.

    The numbers financially are here above, challenge them if you want.

    environmentally : provide a source that agrees with you: current german power plants who are worse of environmentally then solar panels over the life span of those panels.
     
  16. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    No the subsidy is for german consumers, any export abroad are unsubsidized.

    Its like most US weapon programs. It foreign export are designed to lessen the burden of defense on the USA itself.

    Doesnt matter, as I said solar is not meant to replace all or even the mayority of energy needs .

    BS, again EVERY energy system EVERY country has in the world doesnt run at 100% they are ALWAYS designed to be able to handle peak demand and are ALWAYS having parts to even large parts doing nothing or as you put it: "loose money"

    Again I gave the numbers on the economy side for consumers of solar panels, wether or not they could do more is irrelevant. thats like not buying a car because you dont use it 100% of the time.


    Currently germany has around 4% if I am not mistaken.


    Again I already gave the calculations without any subsidies and they clearly show profit, for the 10th time: why dont you say wich costs in germany extra.


    Then 0.7% max loss (wich would be abnormal as this would put them on the brink of being replaced under warrenty)

    20 years would put the example I gave at a minimum of 85% or a non issue this will not gravely affect the income you get from them.

    The initial price is lower so yes cheaper .


    This topic is about germany I know you have lost the argument a long time ago and now want to change the debate and find some excuses to still want to bash solar panels, but there are very few trpocial storms in gemrnay or very few storms in germany that rips of roofs .

    As in most european countrys they are insured with the rest of the house without any extra costs .


    tornadoes are very rare in europe certainly ones powerfull enough to damage roofs. Panels are designed to withstand hail or violent storms.

    And yes houses are insured but as I already said this is just included in the coverage .

    Well then do give those costs, funny how you keep saying that but never give 1 example.
     
  17. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Except you have to have that gas power plant sitting next to it for when the sun don't shine and the wind ain't blowing. That's like building a restaurant to serve breakfast and then next it build another to serve lunch instead of using the same one for both.

    And to do that you can't have it sitting their idle most of the time.
     
  18. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    It doesn't matter what or where, subsidies to NOT eliminate the cost.
    Doesn't matter it still means you have to have a full blown system capable of producing peak demand plus.


    What don't you understand about a gas or an oil or a coal NOT having to have a duplicate back up system. They can be designed for 130% capacity and run 24/7, you don't have to build in 260% capacity because half you system won't be running most of the time. With a solar you have to have that. You can have a solar plant that will produce 130% but it won't do it 24/7 so you STILL have to have the gas or oil or coal or nuclear that can.


    Specious, you can only figure the true cost with the subsidies included.

    Prorated warranty, they can lose much more and the company won't lose money. Just like your 40,000 tire warrany, go in with 35,000 on they and you get pennys.

    Your understanding of the cost, both initial and operating, is misguided.
     
  19. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    They arent meant to do that .

    What they do cause is make the industry atractive to germans and abroad, as I said creating production and export in germany.



    You always need this so this doesnt matter. The difference is less gas/oil imports wich does matter as they are all brought from outside


    [quote
    What don't you understand about a gas or an oil or a coal NOT having to have a duplicate back up system. They can be designed for 130% capacity and run 24/7, you don't have to build in 260% capacity because half you system won't be running most of the time. With a solar you have to have that. You can have a solar plant that will produce 130% but it won't do it 24/7 so you STILL have to have the gas or oil or coal or nuclear that can.
    [/quote]
    BS, you went from 100% solar to 50% solar NOBODY proposes 50% solar . So this is more excuses you are looking. Solar now provides several % this reduces the needs on other plants and more important lessens imports of oil and gas .


    I specificly stated WITHOUT subsidies . The issue was are they now viable without subsidies, I gave the calculations .

    With subsidies the argument becomes very complex as you woul have to take all the subsidies, all the economic growth it gave and deduct ever export or lessened import .

    No the panels get replaced .

    Then give the numbers, you keep saying this without any argument is calculation to back it up. Give specefic numbers for germany.
     
  20. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Doesn't matter what they are meant to do, they are still part of the cost.
    No you don't, if I am running a coal fired plant I can build to 130% demand. I don't have to have another full blown system capable of the same sitting on the sidelines because the coal fired can run 24/7. With solar or wind you HAVE to have that duplicate capacity.

    No I am at 100%, why have a system that can only produce a fraction of the power meaning you still have duplicate capacity sitting there doing nothing.

    No just take the direct subsidies.

    I just scanned a few warranties and they are replacement with used panels or residual value (prorated) at the manufacturers discretion. Or a monetary equivalent to the power loss again at the manufacturers discretion.
     
  21. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    No, you fail to understand how it works, production isnt subsidized .

    No, because we arent talking about some small unpredictable system its quite predictable and you can plan towards it. less oil/gas/coal consumption means less imports and ultimatly saves money.

    Then you are still at complete BS nobody proposes 100% solar

    And then what?


    Still havent seen 1 number or argument.

    http://www.siliken.com/products_Guarantee.html


    1. Materials and Manufacturing Process Guarantee.
    Siliken provides a 10-year guarantee covering the materials that constitute the photovoltaic
    module as well as any possible defects in the photovoltaic module due to the manufacturing
    process.
    If during this guarantee period the photovoltaic module should cease to operate properly as a
    result of any defect caused by the materials or by the manufacturing process, Siliken reserves
    the right to opt between repairing the defective module, substituting it with another equivalent
    module or reimbursing the purchase price of the defective photovoltaic module. In the event that
    Siliken decides to repair the module, Siliken will use new components in said repair, with
    substituted components being those used by Siliken in the normal manufacturing process. The
    Materials and Manufacturing process guarantee does not guarantee a specific output power
    level.
    2. Specific Output Power Guarantee.
    Siliken guarantees that the power delivered by its modules, measured in standard test
    conditions 1, will be a
    minimum of:
    In the event that Siliken concludes that its module is not producing the guaranteed percentage
    of minimum output power specified in the table above, Siliken reserves the right to opt between
    repairing the defective module, substituting it with an equivalent Siliken module or providing
    additional components to reach the specified output power, at least to the guaranteed minimum
    percentage. In the event that Siliken decides to repair the module, Siliken will use new
    components ...


    Funny how you never provide any sources .
     
  22. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    No you continue to fail to understand that a subsidy does not lower the cost of something it merely shifts it to someone else.

    My quote:
    No you don't, if I am running a coal fired plant I can build to 130% demand. I don't have to have another full blown system capable of the same sitting on the sidelines because the coal fired can run 24/7. With solar or wind you HAVE to have that duplicate capacity.

    Are you just being obtuse or what. Yes you have to have a full blown system capable of supplying the capacity of the solar system sitting there idle except for the cloudy days you need it or at night. With the fossil or nuclear you do NOT have to have that idle capacity.


    Doesn't matter, whatever the capacity you are trying to get from the solar you have to have duplicate redundant capacity to meet 100% of that capacity.

    What happened to the twenty year guaranty you were tauting for the twenty year life. Post a company that gives full purchase price back if they fail at 12 years, 15 years, 20 years.

    And of course the other thing to consider is how many of these companies will be in business 10 years from now, 15 years from now 20 years from now.
     
  23. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    Actually I dont, I never disagreed with this. What YOU fail to relise is the purpose is to shift this abroad.


    Yes you do, you just dont turn of nucear power plants if demand is low, same goes for every other system you always have for the most of the time over capacity solar or no solar .


    Yes it does because that is the only argument you have left .


    You never ead the source did you?

    That was just an example because you claimed they would not offer full guarantee just some small amount after a couple of years .

    2. Specific Output Power Guarantee.
    Siliken guarantees that the power delivered by its modules, measured in standard test
    conditions 1, will be a
    minimum of:
    In the event that Siliken concludes that its module is not producing the guaranteed percentage
    of minimum output power specified in the table above, Siliken reserves the right to opt between
    repairing the defective module, substituting it with an equivalent Siliken module or providing
    additional components to reach the specified output power, at least to the guaranteed minimum
    percentage. In the event that Siliken decides to repair the module, Siliken will use new
    components in said repair, with said components being those used by Siliken in its
    manufacturing process.

    Years 11 trough 25 : 80% minimum power value .


    More non arguments as there is a rerason why they give so much guarantee, the panels themselves are very simple.

    And if after a decade 1 of 20-30 panels falls out and there is nobody to give warenty you still have the rest its not as if 1 panels thats worls less then optimum breaks everything.


    Again you still havent provided one credible figure or agument more non arguments simply because you have an irrational hate for solar panels.
     
  24. Glücksritter

    Glücksritter Well-Known Member

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    Of course you will find regions in which you can use solar power more effectively than in Germany, but you oversimplify.

    1. In Germany the region with the most sun hours per year is Usedom, an island in the North East. You can check out this fact via internet if you want. Your assumption and that you can use it most effectively within Germany in the southern region (according to your cards) is not correct. It is important, what you can collect on the ground, not what is absorbed before.

    2. It is about solar electricity, solar electricity does not have anything to do with an energy upgrade for your house, you can produce electricity but it must go into the electric supply network. What you can use directly within your house are heat collectors for warm water, but this is not the same. We talk about the prosuction of electricity which you can sell to your electric power company.

    3. You can use photovotaics more effectively in California, but you won't even get close to the prices for which you can have it via coal. While in Germany it may be ten times more expensive, maybe you can get it eight times more expensive. Consider that to the expensiveness is caused only to some parts by the effectiveness of the solar modules, but also by other factors like the grid and many other factors.
     
  25. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    I don't think any one "hates" solar panels, What I do hate is the thought of crony capitalism and politicians spending my money so they can line their political donors pockets. I say kill all the energy subsidies. Carbon, solar, wind etc and let them fight it out.
     

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