El Paso, TX (More guns than people) is safer than NYC, DC, or Chicago.

Discussion in 'Gun Control' started by Silverhair, Oct 5, 2010.

  1. Silverhair

    Silverhair New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,109
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    El Paso, TX, has a population of about 736,000, and is directly across the border from Cuidad Juarez which had 2,500 murders in 2007. Juarez has Mexico's almost total gun ban. El Paso has the famous Texas lax gun laws such that estimates of the number of guns in the city exceeds the number of people. So since some believe that "More Guns = More Crime" then El Paso should be a bloodbath.

    Surprise! In 2008 there were 23 murders, in 2009 there were about a dozen, and in the first six months of 2010 there was only one (1) murder. ONLY ONE !!!

    Despite the near total gun bans of NYC, DC, and Chicago, they can't compare to that.

    So why haven't all those guns with all of the thousands of Texans in El Paso who are carrying guns on them, been shooting lots and lots of folks. Why haven't those guns been doing criminal stuff?

    http://www.kvia.com/news/24341663/detail.html

    http://reason.com/archives/2009/07/06/the-el-paso-miracle

    I will grant that other causes have helped supress the crime/murder rate. But more guns definately hasn't raised the crime/murder rate.

    Imagine if Chicago had El Paso's murder rate. 736K people and only one murder in six months. I just googled it and Chicago, population 2,748,889 is having an increase in their murder rate for 2010. As of April 27, 2010 Chicago had 113 murders. For the same period in 2009 they had 101.

    Why isn't Daley's gun ban making Chicago safer?

    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0...-in-Chicago-Daley-pushes-for-more-gun-control
     
  2. Beevee

    Beevee Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2009
    Messages:
    13,916
    Likes Received:
    146
    Trophy Points:
    63
    How do you know Texans from El Paso have not been doing just that, but in other states?
     
  3. Silverhair

    Silverhair New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,109
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    You are being silly.
     
  4. Beevee

    Beevee Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2009
    Messages:
    13,916
    Likes Received:
    146
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Then I'm in fine company.
     
  5. Silverhair

    Silverhair New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,109
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Yes, there are several anti-gun regulars who consistantly make silly statements.

    Obviously you don't like having the fact pointed out that El Paso had only one murder in the first half of the year, while Chicago had 113 as of April. Adjusted for population size that would be about 33 murders for Chicago.
     
  6. Beevee

    Beevee Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2009
    Messages:
    13,916
    Likes Received:
    146
    Trophy Points:
    63
    What I suggested was that El Paso criminals were working elsewhere. Can you dispute that?
     
  7. Silverhair

    Silverhair New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,109
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Your suggestion is silly on the face of it. You do not desire a serious discussion.
     
  8. Beevee

    Beevee Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2009
    Messages:
    13,916
    Likes Received:
    146
    Trophy Points:
    63
    My suggestion is either silly or it isn't. Why qualify it with 'on the face of it'?
    It seems to me that you only want a serious discussion if people agree with you.
     
  9. Silverhair

    Silverhair New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,109
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Welcome to my ignore list.
     
  10. cptnwinky

    cptnwinky New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2010
    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Perhaps the criminals from El Paso are going up to Chicago just to kill people. Give me a break. This is the most far flung argument I have ever heard. It takes a giant leap to accept and you'll land on the side of conspiracy if you take it.

    I now have one more reason to have my wife request Fort Bliss when she gets out of Korea. First I heard that it was a beautiful city, then I heard the people were nice, I already knew that I liked Tex-Mex cuisine, now I can be assured my family will be safe.
     
  11. sunnyside

    sunnyside Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2008
    Messages:
    4,573
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    48
    While he isn't explaining himself, Beevee might have a point.

    If I were a criminal I might well be more reluctant to commit crimes in an location where I suspect people will be armed. And might drive a bit further out to commit something like robbery. I might choose to move somewhere else entirely if I wanted to sell drugs.

    Similarly I might go out of my way to go somewhere that the citizens don't have guns.

    I don't know that you'd have people going all the way up form Texas to Chicago. But I bet Chicago draws in trouble.

    That said, I think it's obvious other, greater, factors are in play here. And clearly, at the least, guns are not a primary factor.
     
  12. Silverhair

    Silverhair New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,109
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Take a look at a map and see where El Paso is. It is a looong way from El Paso to anywhere. It is one of the most isolated cities in America. And New Mexico, just to the north, is just as gun-friendly as Texas is.

    I agree that other factors are at work to create the low murder rate. But it should give the "More Guns = More Crime" crowd reason to pause. But they will look past it and tut-tut.
     
  13. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    39,883
    Likes Received:
    2,144
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The empirical evidence into robbery effects are ambiguous. On one side, we have the belief in deterrence effects. On the other, we have guns representing a desirable acquisition and therefore providing a criminal incentive.

    This thread is nonsense as its a mere variation of the attempt to find spurious relationship. There's nothing necessarily wrong with qualitative research. However, it has to be done correctly. Its easy, for example, to ad-hocly 'pick'n'choose' locations that fit both sides of the debate. That only shows, however, a cretinous disregard for objective research
     
  14. Silverhair

    Silverhair New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,109
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    So why aren't all those guns out murdering people? Don't you claim that "More Guns = More Crime"?
     
  15. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    39,883
    Likes Received:
    2,144
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I claim the hypothesis cannot be rejected. That's a factual summary of the quantitative analysis. Ask yourself a simple question: why doesn't that quantitative analysis consider one place? Why does it involve the study of multiple areas? The answer is in the empirical specification. Differences in characteristics enable us to control for the other factors that impact on crime rates
     
  16. Silverhair

    Silverhair New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,109
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    So why aren't all those guns out shooting people? Yes, there are other factors at play, but that many guns should make themselves felt.

    Why do Chicago, NYC, & DC, which have gun bans have such high, and increasing, rates. Again I grant that other factors are at play, but surely the bans on gun should have some visible effect, shouldn't it?
     
  17. sunnyside

    sunnyside Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2008
    Messages:
    4,573
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    48
    I'm not even sure you and Reiver even disagree in this thread.

    We all agree other factors are in play. And I don't think even Reiver or the others pretend that guns are a primary driver for crime and such. Just that there is some comparatively small but measureable effect behind the other factors. So having a couple cases one way or the other won't bother them.

    And in any case I don't think I've seen him start a thread regarding the efficacy of a gun law.

    Usually his stuff is more on the personal level. Like a study showing owniing guns makes you think your genetalia is larger than it is or something.
     
  18. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    39,883
    Likes Received:
    2,144
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I certainly disagree with his attempt at abusing quantitative and qualitative information. Its a basic no no that is unfortunately too common on this sub-forum! Perhaps if you talk to him about it he'll be more sensible and get on-board with the validity programme?
     
  19. sunnyside

    sunnyside Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2008
    Messages:
    4,573
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    48
    He's not abusing it exactly, he's misunderstanding the position of the anti gunners we have on this site.


    He thinks you feel that guns corresponding to crime is nearly a mathmatical thing. Given a mathmatical equation, a single counterexample is proof that the equation is wrong, and so he's got a counterexample here, and seems to be expecting it to shatter your world.

    Whereas the sort of positions you guys take, as I understand it, is that the increased gun possession would have only a slight impact crime but may increase the incidence of flipping the bird in traffic. Hence one example is meaningless.
     
  20. Silverhair

    Silverhair New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,109
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Not just a counter-example, but an extreme one. If more guns have an upward pressure on crime, especially murder, then a city such as El Paso should show evidence of that trend. Instead we that El Paso is an extreme in the other direction.


    That combines both legall and illegal gun carrying. I freely admit that those who carry illegally are more likely to engage in higher risk behaviors. After all, that is what criminals do.

    But there is a large group of us who have permits and we carry LEGALLY. That group of us who are LEGAL carriers has a much lower rate of convictions than the general public. Therefre it is obvious that the LEGAL carriers are behaving differently than the general public. Reiver denies that such a difference exists, despite have access to a complete record of all conviction statistics for two major states.
     
  21. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    39,883
    Likes Received:
    2,144
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Its a standard attempt to make spurious link. That is abuse and he really shouldn't be doing it. I'll have to blame you as you should have 'educated him up' by now
     
  22. Independent with a voice

    Independent with a voice New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2010
    Messages:
    1,094
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    0
    600,000+ people to? If that's true, then if El Paso's murder rate applied to Chicago, they'd have around ten to fifteen murders per year, instead of over 100. However, I think it's more of a geographic thing. Perhaps, there's just more kinder hearted people (ignoring the racists) down there than in places like Chicago. Not to mention, Chicago's probably one of those towns with higher rates of drug dealing. Even if you consider the other factors, I agree that it's proof that more guns doesn't always mean more murder. They have Mexican gangs/ cartels shooting across the border into their town and El Paso's probably safer than a bunch of the other urban centers.
     
  23. mapleleafer8

    mapleleafer8 New Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2010
    Messages:
    10,349
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Maybe they were dumping the bodies in Juarez...with 2500 murders a year there ain't no way the underfunded and corupt police department there can keep up to and identify all of those bodies
    no way in hell
     
  24. mapleleafer8

    mapleleafer8 New Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2010
    Messages:
    10,349
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    If you watch The Wire you'll see all kinds of devious (*)(*)(*)(*) being pulled by the Police Department to cook up statistics, and that's how it's done in real life
     
  25. losttexan

    losttexan New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2010
    Messages:
    1,709
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    OF COURSE. That makes total sense. I am happy that Florida allows us citizens to protect ourselves also.
     

Share This Page