Will California and Maine be the first states to legalise SSM by a vote?

Discussion in 'Gay & Lesbian Rights' started by DevilMay, Dec 17, 2011.

  1. DevilMay

    DevilMay Well-Known Member

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    Maine Equality already has the required signatures to put it on the Nov '12 ballot, and polls are showing a majority in the state now support SSM. Let's remember that the last referendum in '09 passed 52-48, meaning a swing of anything over 2% will be sufficient to legalise it in Maine. Add to that the positive advertising campaign already under way and the chances are looking good. What would this mean for the gay rights movement? The anti-marriage crowd always like to remind us that whereever SSM has been put to a popular vote it has been defeated. A victory in Maine would destroy that argument and be a very pivotal point in the fight for marriage equality...

    Then there's California, obviously a very close one there too in '08, with a swing of just over 3% from four years ago needed to restore SSM. Obviously people are holding out for the courts, but if Judge Walker's decision does get turned over by the Ninth Circuit or SCOTUS, there's always a plan B: take it back to the people.
     
  2. Osiris Faction

    Osiris Faction Well-Known Member

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    It would be a great gain for the rights movement to take Maine. I think its a real possibility. As time goes on we see the popular vote going toward same sex marriage. We'll just have to wait and see.

    As for California, I really see Judge Walkers opinion being upheld.
     
  3. Makedde

    Makedde New Member Past Donor

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    If gay marriage gets defeted by such a small margin, then you can be sure that in a few years, when you take it back to the people, the result will likely be the opposite. Gay marriage will be legal in several states, and the people will have voted for it.
     
  4. Perriquine

    Perriquine On hiatus Past Donor

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    And if the other side somehow manages to get it on the ballot to rescind it again?

    This is why it shouldn't be put to a vote - the potential to see-saw back and forth creates unstable and unreliable law. It was upsetting enough when my partner and I lost are very limited, only locally recognized domestic partnership as a result of the 2004 amendment to the Michigan constitution. I can't imagine having full marriage and then having it ripped away from you, being forcibly divorced. Too heartbreaking.
     
  5. Perriquine

    Perriquine On hiatus Past Donor

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    I think Maine is a greater possibility than California. But with organizations like the National Organization for marriage basically thumbing their noses at campaign finance and disclosure laws, you can count on big money being spent to defeat marrigae equality. Since it's a presidential election year, those that are voted on in the November 2012 election are liable to see equality defeated again if there's a high GOP turnout / decreased Democratic turnout, which looks likely to me.

    I don't. It might make it through the 9th Circuit, but it will be dead on arrival at the Supreme Court. They'll either refuse to hear it, dismiss it as presenting no question of federal law for them to interpret, or hold a full trial and then issue a lopsided verdict against marriage equality.

    The court does not necessarily swim with the tide of changing public opinion. It will instead avoid the issue as long as it can, until the matter is far more decisively settled as a matter of state laws reflecting greater permanence in the public's opinion on the matter.
     
  6. marbro

    marbro New Member

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    Maybe Washington state will suprise you

    After seven years of waffling and “vague answers” on the issue, the Roman Catholic Governor, whose stand on homosexual marriage is at odds with her church's teaching, announced on January 4 that “she not only supports allowing gays and lesbians to marry, but will propose legislation to legalize it in Washington state,” reported the Seattle Times.http://www.thenewamerican.com/cultu...te-governor-puts-qgayq-marriage-on-fast-track

    That said I will do what I can to make sure it doesnt pass in my state:sun:
     
  7. DevilMay

    DevilMay Well-Known Member

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    That's the legislative route, not a public vote.

    But Washington State did approve Domestic Partnerships by a popular vote.
     
  8. marbro

    marbro New Member

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    thanks for correcting me.
     
  9. DevilMay

    DevilMay Well-Known Member

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    If Waker's ruling is upheld in the Ninth Circuit and the Supreme Court refuse to hear it, the ruling will be allowed to stand.
     
  10. Perriquine

    Perriquine On hiatus Past Donor

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    Yes, but it would apply only to the states belonging to that circuit, or at least that's my understanding of it.

    I think they're unlikely to simply refuse to hear it. It might sound like an easy out at first glance, but I think it would just leave too many loose ends, such that they would have to figure that another case would end up before them not that far down the road. On the other hand, they may view it as such a hot potato that they'd be content to kick the can down the road a bit.
     
  11. DevilMay

    DevilMay Well-Known Member

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    I think there's a way the Ninth Circuit can make it apply to California only. Not sure the Supreme Court could, though. That's why they may refuse to hear it.
     
  12. Daggdag

    Daggdag Well-Known Member

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    Then we push for a federal ammendment barring the government from having any say in marriage between consenting adults.
     
  13. Perriquine

    Perriquine On hiatus Past Donor

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    Also a possibility. All these different scenarios make it rather hard to predict an outcome.
     
  14. Perriquine

    Perriquine On hiatus Past Donor

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    I can't imagine there ever being enough support in Congress to even get it started.
     

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