How likely is a brokered convention?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by pjohns, Feb 5, 2012.

  1. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    With his win in Nevada Saturday night, Mitt Romney has now racked up three victories in five contests--all of them by large margins. It is increasingly looking like he will enter the GOP convention, in August, with a plurality of delegates.

    But will it be an absolute majority?

    Many GOP contests have switched from a winner-take-all format to proportional representation in 2012. This, of course, makes it more difficult for any one candidate to rack up a clear majority.

    And what if Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul both decline to release their delegates, in the spirit of party unity--Gingrich, out of a visceral dislike for Romney (which appears to be mutual); and Paul, out of a sense of ideological purity--and no candidate achieves a majority on the first ballot? Or the second ballot? Or even the third ballot?

    Every four years, there is some speculation as regarding the possibility of a brokered convention. But given the recent change, away from a winner-take-all format in many states, it seems to me like a fairly serious possibility.

    What do others think?
     
  2. General Fear

    General Fear New Member

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    Wait for Super Tuesday. There are a lot of delegates available Super Tuesday.

    Will the bible belt vote for a Mormon? When so many born again Christians believe that the Mormon religion is an occult? And Newt is from the South. If Newt and the rest of the candidates can't stop Romney on Super Tuesday, it's over.
     
  3. MnBillyBoy

    MnBillyBoy New Member

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    The real question is Can newt win away from the south and away from those born again Christians ?
    Can newt win the west ?
    The North ?
    The N.E. ?
    The far S.w ?

    Is that born again mentality " the most important factor " when your candidate self destructs ?
    When he looks and sounds like a loser..complainer..and a hollow shell of a positive politician for the future.
    Does he portray that winning edge to win in every state ?
    Giving newt those 5 states wont win the White House.
    Obama will carry every other state.
     
  4. CoolWalker

    CoolWalker New Member

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    This convention will probably be hot...very hot. Gingrich is an "in-fighter" and not the most gracious of losers. Paul, well, he's Paul...Santorum...no need to really talk there. We could all be surprised with a last minute dark Horse...that is not impossible.
     
  5. MnBillyBoy

    MnBillyBoy New Member

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    Who did the other dark horse..white Knight endorse so far ?
    Jeb Bush wasn't needed for a large Romney win in Florida..MOMENT LOST
    Palin endorsed newt in Florida.

    Perry and the others endorsed newt.

    You're running out of time and magical moments.
    The OBAMA magic shows that relying on HOPE isnt that good for our Nations economy.
    It didn't work well for Dems..and it wont for Republicans either.
    You cant out hope and out spend democrats.

    Time is not on our side.
     
  6. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    Well, I reside in the South. And I can declare, with a great deal of certitude, that the above comments are steeped in a most unkind (and inaccurate) stereotype of southerners.

    More specifically, they appear to be rooted in the (erroneous) belief that southerners are more likely than other Americans to be bigots of one sort of another : religious bigots, racial bigots, gender bigots (i.e. misogynists)--etc., ad nauseum.

    Frankly, I find this stereotype (like all other stereotypes) rather offensive...
     
  7. hoytmonger

    hoytmonger New Member

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    Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee... it's already been decided.

    Ron Paul will come in second.

    Newt Gingrich isn't even on the ballot in several states and Santorum is last, his delegates will likely go to Romney.
     
  8. CoolWalker

    CoolWalker New Member

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    I'm not saying it will occur, but it could end up being a "Oops I coulda' had a V-8 moment" and someone swoops in to take the lead, but it is very hard to tell. Unfortunately I haven't had the time in the past decade to stay involved in Party politics...perhaps when the economy gets back on its feet I will have the time again, but for now it is work, work, work.
     
  9. Phoebe Bump

    Phoebe Bump New Member

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    On the other hand, your boy Newt seems to be employing all the bigotry he thinks he can get away with. I don't care much for Mitt, but that "Massachusetts Moderate" label Newt pinned on him is designed to call out all that good ol' southern bigotry.
     
  10. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    For openers, I just voted, a few days ago, by absentee ballot, in the Tennessee primary; and my vote did not go to Newt Gingrich.

    Nonetheless, it does seem fair to inquire: What "bigotry," precisely, has Newt (supposedly) been guilty of employing?

    And your evidence that "good ol' southern bigotry," in 2012, is more widely in evidence than, say, Midwestern bigotry, or New England bigotry, would be...well, what, exactly?
     

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