Greece in last ditch scramble to avoid default

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by DonGlock26, Mar 8, 2012.

  1. DonGlock26

    DonGlock26 New Member Past Donor

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    Greece in last ditch scramble to avoid default


    Greek politicians rounded on their own pension providers in a nail-biting scramble that secured the biggest bond restructuring in history. But it was still unlikely to be enough to avoid default.


    Officials in Athens estimated that between 75pc and 80pc of private creditors had accepted the €206bn (£173bn) bond swap shortly before the 8pm GMT deadline. The level is enough for the deal to go through, but only if the government uses its controversial Collective Action Clauses (CACs).
    Ratings agencies have warned they will declare a default if Greece activates the CACs, which allow the government to impose the deal on the remaining bondholders. The CACs will be used if the take up falls below the desired 95pc level but above the required 66pc.
    The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) is poised to convene again to decide if the vast restructuring amounts to a "credit event" that should trigger billions of euros of credit default insurance.
    Athens said the figures would be revealed at 6am GMT tomorrow. The 17 eurozone finance ministers have scheduled a conference call at lunchtime to review the deal. They will meet on Monday to decide if Greece's €130bn bail-out funds can now be released.
    With the bondholder acceptance level too close to call today, Evangelos Venizelos led the charge against a group of rebel Greek investors. The Greek finance minister said it was an embarrassment that six out of 15 state-controlled pension schemes - including one that serviced his own ministry - were with-holding their support hours before the deadline. "When pension funds in other countries that invested in Greek bonds are taking a haircut, how can our own funds refuse to join in?" he said.


    Others refused too. Delta Lloyds, the Dutch insurer with €71m of Greek bonds, said it would not vote for a deal that would be imposed on some investors.
    Still, as the number of acceptances inched up, stockmarkets across Europe rose by around 2pc each. Most traders expected the CACs to be activated but were relieved that an orderly default was secure after eight months of wrangling. Some were still optimistic that 95pc of bondholders would accept the deal, pushing it through without a hitch. "Bondholders would be mad not to accept the offer," said one. "The alternative is getting nothing."
    The deal, in which creditors swapped their bonds for new ones worth a quarter of the value, is designed to wipe more than €100bn of Greek government debt by 2020. Its completion is also a key condition of Greece's international paymasters - they will not release the €130bn bail-out funds without it. Greece needs the cash to repay a €14.5bn bond due on March 20.
    Critics argue that, even with the bondholder agreement, the bail-out measures are inadequate. Raoul Ruparel of Open Europe said: "The package still offers little hope of making debt sustainable in Greece and puts taxpayers at the risk of greater losses under, what looks to be, an inevitable Greek default."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-in-last-ditch-scramble-to-avoid-default.html


    The EU isn't out of trouble yet. If anything, the game of kicking the can is reaching its exciting climax. Then, there are the rest of the PIGS of the EU waiting in the wings for their turns. I think the EU could still cause a global recession, and the welfare state i.e. progressive ideology will be the root cause.


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  2. DonGlock26

    DonGlock26 New Member Past Donor

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    Legal skull-duggery in Greece may doom Portugal

    Europe has ring-fenced Greece's debt crisis for now but its escalating recourse to legal legerdemain has shattered the trust of global bond markets and may ultimately expose Portugal, Spain, and Italy to greater danger.



    "The rule of law has been treated with contempt," said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities. "This will lead to litigation for the next ten years. It has become a massive impediment for long-term investors, and people will now be very wary about Portugal."
    At the start of the crisis EU leaders declared it unthinkable that any eurozone state should require debt relief, let alone default. Each pledge was breached, and the haircut imposed on banks, insurers, and pension funds ratcheted up to 75pc.
    Last month the European Central Bank exercised its droit du seigneur, exempting itself from loses on Greek bonds. The instant effect was to concentrate more loss on other bondholders. "This has set a major precedent," said Marchel Alexandrivich from Jefferies Fixed Income. "It does not matter how often the EU authorities repeat that Greece is a 'one-off' case, nobody in the markets believes them."
    The ECB holds €220bn (£185bn) of Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Spanish, and Italian bonds. Its handling of Greece implicitly subordinates private creditors in each country. All have slipped a notch down the pecking order.
    The Greek parliament's retroactive law last month to insert collective action clauses (CACs) into its bonds to coerce creditor hold-outs has added a fresh twist. These CAC's are likely to be activated over coming days. Use of retroactive laws to change contracts is anathema in credit markets.


    This might not matter too much if Greece were really a "one-off" case but markets are afraid that Portugal will tip into the same downward spiral as austerity starts to bite.
    Citigroup expects the economy to contract by 5.7pc this year, warning that bondholders may face a 50pc haircut by the end of the year. Portugal's €78bn loan package from the EU-IMF Troika is already large enough to crowd out private creditors, reducing them to ever more junior status.
    EU leaders said last June that "Greece is unique" and promises that haircuts would "not be replicated in Portugal". They have since pledged that the EU's new bail-out (ESM) fund will not have protected status.
    Portugal has been praised by the International Monetary Fund for grasping the nettle of reform, but the IMF's own figures show that public debt may reach 118pc of GDP next year. The debts of state-owned bodies add another 10pc.
    Combined public and private debt is 360pc of GDP, 100 percentage points above Greece. This is a huge burden on a shrinking economic base. Its current account deficit was still 8pc of GDP last year, much like Greece. Both countries are overvalued by 20pc on a real effective exchange rate, though Portugal has barely begun to cut unit labour costs.
    Dimitris Drakopoulos from Nomura said Portugal relied on "fiscal engineering" last year to massage deficit figures, raiding 3.5pc of GDP from private pension funds.
    Matters will come to a head soon. The IMF must decide by September whether Portugal needs more money and debt relief. If Portugal now spirals into a Grecian vortex, large haircuts loom. This time EU leaders will have to accept that their own taxpayers will suffer losses - avoided until now - or violate their pledge.
    Bondholders are not waiting to learn whether Europe will keep its word this time. There has been no rally in Portuguese debt since the ECB flooded banks with €1 trillion. Ten-year yields are stuck at 13.2pc. Return to market access is a distant dream.
    The risk for Europe is that investors will charge a "political risk" premium to invest in any EMU country subject to EU legal whim. The greater risk is that Euroland's crisis rumbles on as fiscal contraction in Italy and Spain plays havoc with debt dynamics, and reforms come much to late to close the North-South trade gap.
    Europe's handling of Greece has guaranteed that global funds will rush for Club Med exits at the first sign of trouble. The next spasm of the debt crisis will that much dangerous if it ever comes. As the saying goes: Hell hath no fury like an abused bondholder.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...kull-duggery-in-Greece-may-doom-Portugal.html
     
  3. BringDownMugabe

    BringDownMugabe Well-Known Member

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    Do the Scandinavian countries practice this "progressive ideology" as well?
     
  4. DonGlock26

    DonGlock26 New Member Past Donor

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    Why yes, I'll show you:


    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTWbY5PNnJU"]Muslims attack swedish artist Lars Vilks and clashes with police - Sweden 11 May 2010 - YouTube[/ame]


    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfYAhQ4I4Uk"]Violent muslim riots in Rosengård, Malmö, Sweden, December 2008 - YouTube[/ame]


    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlG75wb7lLw&feature=fvwrel"]Welcome to Sweden of Today. - YouTube[/ame]


    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIrcNL9PfUU&feature=related"]The Islamisation of sweden - YouTube[/ame]

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QgBHUoGapI"]Firemen and Police in Sweden attacked by muslims - YouTube[/ame]
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  5. DonGlock26

    DonGlock26 New Member Past Donor

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    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_rHFKRwv5Y"]Oslo: ALL Assault-Rapes commited by Non-Western Men - YouTube[/ame]


    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Omd8PN5ezN8&feature=related"]Muslim behavior in Oslo, Norway - YouTube[/ame]


    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4ZllIoagsQ&feature=related"]Norwegian Muslims want beheading for failing to observe the fast inIslamic schools - YouTube[/ame]


    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtWizNB7z7o"]CCTV footage of the Islamic bombing Terrorist Attack in Sweden -Stockholm - YouTube[/ame]


    Ne Nuntium Necare



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  6. Speeders R Murderers

    Speeders R Murderers Banned

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    I've been hearing for two years that greece would default next week.
     
  7. BringDownMugabe

    BringDownMugabe Well-Known Member

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    Hey Don,

    Nice YouTube videos. I prefer statistics however.
    Source

    Source

    Based upon statistics, it seems like the "progressive ideology" is the way to go.
     
  8. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    Greece overrun by migrants...
    :omg:
    UNHCR: Greece Overwhelmed by Migrants
    October 16, 2015 — The U.N. refugee agency is warning that Greece cannot cope with the flood of refugees and migrants landing on its shores because it lacks proper reception facilities to register and screen them.
    See also:

    Objects left on the beach by migrants on Lesbos
    Oct 16,`15 -- The migrants arrive by the hundreds on the beaches of the Greek island of Lesbos. And in their eagerness to move on, they leave behind belongings they carried on their backs.
     
  9. northwinds

    northwinds Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Just bring in a couple more hundreds of thousands of refugees with nothing but a shirt on their back.......they will immediately demand food, shelter and clothing.........along with a weekly stipend. That should cure a country on the brink of economic collapse........at least that's what a liberal would tell you.....��
     
  10. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    Migration Can Slow, But Not Reverse Europe’s Demographic Crisis...
    :confusion:
    UN Report: Int’l. Migration Can Slow, But Not Reverse Europe’s Demographic Crisis
    January 14, 2016 | International migration can slow, but not reverse Europe’s looming demographic crisis, according to a December report by the United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
     

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