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Thread: Jim Rogers: U.S. to plunge into recession in 2013

  1. Default Jim Rogers: U.S. to plunge into recession in 2013



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    I am not surprised. Besides what Jim Rogers said, the tax cuts will expire in 2013. Which means a wet blanket will land over the US economy. Then there is the problem with Europe. They are still in trouble over there.

    For sure, the economy is at the edge of a knife.

  3. #3

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    Jim Rogers predicts a new recession in 2012

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...n-in-2012.html

    US may face fresh recession in 2011-12 worse than before: Jim Rogers

    http://articles.economictimes.indiat...rs-commodities

    March 2010: Another recession coming, says Jim Rogers

    http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...ys-jim-rogers/

    So what else is new?
    Last edited by Iriemon; Apr 25 2012 at 03:36 PM.

  4. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Iriemon View Post
    Jim Rogers predicts a new recession in 2012

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...n-in-2012.html

    US may face fresh recession in 2011-12 worse than before: Jim Rogers

    http://articles.economictimes.indiat...rs-commodities

    March 2010: Another recession coming, says Jim Rogers

    http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...ys-jim-rogers/

    So what else is new?
    If you had actually read/watched those links (or were as familiar with him as I am), you would see that no where does Jim Rogers state that there will be a recession 'by such and such a date'.

    That is not his style.

    He merely states that there are traditionally recessions in America every 4 to 6 years since America began and that she is due for another one around 2012 since that would be within the 4 to 6 year window since the last one.

    I appreciate that economic laypersons like you seem to have a difficult time differentiating between someone saying that something is 'historically due around a certain time' and saying something 'will definitely happen at a certain time'.

    But fortunately, investors like me can...not that I am an expert in any sense of the word.


    Finally, Jim Rogers has said time and again that he is none too good at timing trends exactly (I am paraphrasing).
    That is (I assume) why he refrains from setting dates for predictions. He just quotes historical trends and relates them to today.


    BTW - did you see the bottom of the screen of the video on your third link at the 2:52 mark where it said he was bullish on silver?

    That was March, 2010 - when silver was at about $17.

    He stopped being bullish around early 2011 - when it was close to $40-45.

    And even if you missed his bearish warning - today it is over $30.

    A 76% return on his advice in two years.

    http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html


    Have a nice day.
    Last edited by DA60; Apr 25 2012 at 04:20 PM.

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    I will be going back to Danmark. Several danish and swedish people I know have already left because of unemployment problems.

    I fear someday soon the whole world will turn into a third world hell hole, and there will be nowhere left to escape to. At the rate things are going, even Russia might start to look like an attractive place to move to.

  6. #6

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    Jim Rogers is a little confused. We are in a recession already - have been since late 2007. If the recession ended technically, it certainly didn't end economically.

  7. Default

    I agree -- when did the recession we are already in end? It seems like things have only gotten worse. I mean look around.. What has gotten better? The government may be trying to make things seem better, but IMO, they're not. One crucial thing in determining a good or bad economy is the unemployment rate -- to state the obvious. But, what some are forgetting is the government statistics on the US unemployment rate IS A LIE! An exaggeration; a misleading piece of false hope for Americans (especially ones that are in denial about where the US is heading at this rate) -- whatever you want to call it. The official "Unemployment" benefits lasts for one year. This means that as years go by, more and more people get kicked off the benefit, furthermore damaging the already broken US economy, but at least it gives America false hope for an improving economy. Half the people on my block are unemployed but not on the unemployment benefits program that the Feds use to determine the amount of unemployed people. So if you see the unemployment rate down on the news, just assume that only now are more US citizens either looking for jobs again or seeking additional government support. I could name dozens that are going back to school just for grants. Many also use the economic crash of '29 as another way of coping. I hear it all the time; "Well, it was way worse back then and we came out of it, so why can't we now?" -- but back then the Fed's collected statistical data through the US Census based on how many people claimed they had were unemployed -- NOT by how many people were on a program that lasts one year. Just goes to show how the US government has slowly lost it's ethics and morals. My thought is, why would the Feds mislead this country unless the economy was worse than any of us could think? The only reason they would have to mislead us into believing our economy isn't as bad as it really is is to keep the people from rioting and freaking out over the possibility of the US fall. It's just a theory that makes sense in my mind. It could be false though. Who know's. Predictions of where the US economy is heading have now turned into a guessing game; a matter of opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by fmw View Post
    Jim Rogers is a little confused. We are in a recession already - have been since late 2007. If the recession ended technically, it certainly didn't end economically.
    Last edited by tbudwiser; May 09 2012 at 08:00 PM.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Anders Hoveland View Post
    I will be going back to Danmark. Several danish and swedish people I know have already left because of unemployment problems.

    I fear someday soon the whole world will turn into a third world hell hole, and there will be nowhere left to escape to. At the rate things are going, even Russia might start to look like an attractive place to move to.
    Jim Rogers usually invests in emerging nations where he believes growth is about to take root in a significant way. I'd look to go to those places, if you can stand living in places that aren't up to western standards.
    "The principle that the end justifies the means is, in individualist ethics, regarded as the denial of all morals. In collectivist ethics it becomes necessarily the supreme rule" -- F. A. Hayek.
    "A day, an hour, of virtuous liberty is worth a whole eternity in bondage" -- Joseph Addison's "Cato, A Tragedy" (1713)
    "The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion." - Albert Camus

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by fmw View Post
    Jim Rogers is a little confused. We are in a recession already - have been since late 2007. If the recession ended technically, it certainly didn't end economically.
    You're a little confused because of the common misconception of how a "recession" is defined by the entities that measure it (eg NBER).

    A recession is when the economy is getting worse. A recession ends when the economy stops getting worse. That doesn't mean when the economy has fully recovered. So yes, you can still have high unemployment, a battered economy, and not be in a recession.
    Last edited by Iriemon; May 10 2012 at 06:45 AM.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by tbudwiser View Post
    I agree -- when did the recession we are already in end? It seems like things have only gotten worse. I mean look around.. What has gotten better? The government may be trying to make things seem better, but IMO, they're not.
    Upon what basis do you claim the recession did not end?

    One crucial thing in determining a good or bad economy is the unemployment rate -- to state the obvious. But, what some are forgetting is the government statistics on the US unemployment rate IS A LIE! An exaggeration; a misleading piece of false hope for Americans (especially ones that are in denial about where the US is heading at this rate) -- whatever you want to call it. The official "Unemployment" benefits lasts for one year. This means that as years go by, more and more people get kicked off the benefit, furthermore damaging the already broken US economy, but at least it gives America false hope for an improving economy. Half the people on my block are unemployed but not on the unemployment benefits program that the Feds use to determine the amount of unemployed people.
    Speaking of "A LIE", where did you get your belief that whether people are collecting unemployment benefits has anything to do with the unemployment rate or data.

    I heard this claimed on Fox News, is that where you got your belief and understanding?



    So if you see the unemployment rate down on the news, just assume that only now are more US citizens either looking for jobs again or seeking additional government support. I could name dozens that are going back to school just for grants. Many also use the economic crash of '29 as another way of coping. I hear it all the time; "Well, it was way worse back then and we came out of it, so why can't we now?" -- but back then the Fed's collected statistical data through the US Census based on how many people claimed they had were unemployed -- NOT by how many people were on a program that lasts one year.

    Just goes to show how the US government has slowly lost it's ethics and morals.
    Or maybe it just goes to show how many people have been mislead by erroneous data and distorted information from RW propaganda media?

    If you found out that THE LIE was not the Govt data but your belief about how uenmployment benefits affects unemployment data, and that your source was the LIE, would that change your perspective about what it "just goes to show"?

    My thought is, why would the Feds mislead this country unless the economy was worse than any of us could think? The only reason they would have to mislead us into believing our economy isn't as bad as it really is is to keep the people from rioting and freaking out over the possibility of the US fall. It's just a theory that makes sense in my mind. It could be false though. Who know's. Predictions of where the US economy is heading have now turned into a guessing game; a matter of opinion.
    Did you ever have the thought that maybe it is not the "Feds" who are misleading you, but the sources upone which you get such erroneous beliefs and understandings?

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