This graph is what to expect in the Market. If you get in, stay in. I have been in about 40 years and also rode this crash out. Click image for larger display
Hi, I use astrology as well as tech analysis to try and figure out where the whole thing is going to go! I just set up a web site and have June's astrological forecast up. I you're interested in reading it check out http://www.seizingwallstreet.com. It's still under construction. Hope to have it fully up and running by the end of summer. Thanks for reading and good luck.
I'll just leave the small amount i have in, and invest more as it continues to fall. Got to love when the stocks go "on sale". I get most of my financial advice from an early retirement/lifestyle blog.
You do realize that the chart does not represent a true depiction of the market right? You see when companies like WorldCom and Washington Mutual go down and take the money of investors with them, they are removed from their respective index and replaced with a successful company, which then contributes to the "gain" in the index. Of course that does not put any of the lost money back into the accounts of the people who got creamed. The sobering truth is the average investor has earned about 2.5% since 1994. Statistically that means about half have shown some gain, and half have shown some loss. Not exactly exciting returns for a 20 year period. Especially when you look at the extraordinary support the market has been given by QE at the cost of 85 billion per month, which by the way is ending in October, and action commonly referred to as the Fed taking away the punch bowl and often accompanied by market crashes.
Well, that's a true, but bankrupcy is not the only way a company exits the S&P 500: link. The article says that buying and holding the S&P 500 in 1957 would have outperformed the actual S&P 500. Where did you get this information from? This claims that the geometric average yield has been 9,2% and 6,7% inflation adjusted.
Well people can argue yield all they want, but I can tell you that all the years I have been in the Market I have made a ton of money. I say conservative mutual funds do pay off. But when you get in you got to stay in, ignore the ups and downs. You want to stay in for your life time.
853. A trap in stock market (9/3/2014) The core plot is to set up a trap to capture the international capital. That trap is the US stock market. Watch the chart. Dow jones index now is at its historical peak – above 17,000. Dow Jones index chart Although people feel nothing good in “economy recovery” – good pay jobs continue to loss; homeowners rate is the lowest in 19 years; more people dependent on welfare; yet the media give you another picture. They say unemployment rate drops to nearly 6% although most of the new jobs are part time ones. They say GDP jumps 4.2% in 2nd quarter because they control the national data collection and outsiders hardly know the truth if they cooked the data. Even the negative 1st quarter GDP -2.1% didn’t influence the US stock market because they are making up a trap. To drive the money into that trap, the Feds created war crisis in Asia (mainly by encouraging Japan, Vietnam and Philippine to have a territory dispute with China) and In Europe (by create a civil war in Ukraine) and in Mid-East (ISIL is the puppet of CIA) Once the international capital found the prospect of economy of Europe and Asia are dim, they have to turn to the US market. A large amount of money will invest in stock market. Then at certain level, a big case (e.g. a terror attack) will happen and US stock market will have a big fall to lock that lump of money up for a period. Meanwhile, you will see the media beat the drum to propaganda how US economy going prosperous. Here is a little news to justify planned collapse of the stock market and says the crash will be a big one.
854. Talks between China and US (9/10/2014) On May 2, China has deployed an oil drill platform in controversial South China Sea. That caused a fierce standoff between China and Vietnam. There even was a riot took place in Vietnam. Two months later there was a dramatic turnaround. China suddenly removed that oil rig, one month earlier than it previous announced. Withdrawal of rig was welcomed by Hanoi and Washington. Obviously, it was the result of the talks between officials of China and US. I believe a secret deal has been reached in the talk. That’s why I allege the Feds would create murder cases in September. See #849 and #852. 855. China got a permission to war on Japan (9/14/2014) Was China soft in its territory dispute with Vietnam? Not really. I said John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew visited China on July 8. A secret deal has reached in their meeting. I alleged China has been granted a permission by US to hit the Japan. China wouldn’t start a war with Japan because there is an military agreement between Japan and America. But US would remain as a bystander this time. Of course, China won’t engage wars in two fronts at same time. So it suddenly withdrew its oil rig from South China Sea. (announced on July 15) The development next convinced me China is ready for a war with Japan in East China Sea. The big topic on a Chinese newspaper “World Journal” on July 26 made it very clear - “The sword points to Japan”. Be noticed on this news: 1. The disruption on civil flights starts on July 13. Five days after secret meeting. 2. It’s a large scale military force movement started abruptly. It took more than a week as far as July 21. 3. It’s a preparation for a big military action on East China Sea started on July 27. Why did US persuade China to abandon the conflict in South China Sea but turn onto East China Sea? As I have already told. US has set up a big trap in its stock market. (see #853) It’s waiting for the money escaped from war fields of Asia and Europe. Compare Vietnam with Japan, which market has more money to withdraw?
856. The war plan in Europe and Asia (9/21/2014) 5/2/2014 China deployed an oil rig in South China Sea. It started a violent dispute with Vietnam because the area is a controversial territory. 7/8 – 7/9 State Secretary John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew visited China to hold a meeting there. I alleged a secret deal has been made between US and China. This was an important timing point. The war plot in Europe and Asia began after that meeting. 7/15 China abruptly announced the remove of its oil rig from disputed area. One month earlier than its previous plan. 7/13 – 7/21(7/25?) Unusual disruption of civil flights in Shanghai international airport and other East China area. News said it was caused by military exercises. 7/17 MH17 of Malaysia Airline was shot down in Ukraine war area. 7/27 Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced that military exercises will be conducted off China’s South East coast in the East China Sea from July 29 to August 15 7/27 China military also announced that PLA holds 3-month long exercises August: Ukraine government force started a large scale attack on East Ukrainian rebel area but suffered a big loss. August: Chinese military drilled over East China Sea. You can see the key timing point is 7/8 and 7/9. After the secret deal of sino-America, two potential war fields in Asia and Europe started their war procedure. In mid-July, Chinese military had a big movement to gather its force in at East China in the name of military exercise where the potential enemies are Japan and Taiwan. In mid-July West media also started a large propaganda war on the downing of Malaysia airplane – a preparation to justify the expansion of Ukrainian war. The designated war over East China Sea doesn’t happen because it connected to the core plan of the Feds – the elimination of Kat Sung. China plays a role in that plan.
I hope you are right - I have most of my money in index funds. My main worry is that while I expect to become richer, I don't expect the real returns of 6%+ per year we had in the past will continue primarily because of technological slow down and other factors.
I once saw my funds lose 25% and then lose another 15% the next year but I rode it out. Took about 2 years to get my principal back. That's four years of no gains, but today I'm doing fine because I stayed in. I had several friends who got out at that time and lost their shirt. The history of the Market shows it goes up and down, but it has always, and I mean always, trended up. Those who understand this, will make money, those who get in and out, trying to make a fast buck, will always lose. The Market is not for everyone, just those who can stand the downturns -- and those generations who keep their wealth in the Market. You want to be wealthy -- do what the wealthy do.
If you have any knowledge of the long wave or Kondratiev waves you would know that you just happened to live in a sweet spot of much longer cycle that also has a nasty downside. To say what you did out of sheer lucky timing is advisable for people who are now faced with a different season in the long wave is poor advise.
Wrong... had you been invested in the market in the 1920's chances are you would have died before ever recouping your losses depending on your age. That is providing you had anything left to be invested in. How well will you be set if the next correction takes 60% out of the markets value, and does not recover for 50 years?
Prepare for the deflationary cycle that is inevitable when mass amounts of debt is defaulted on. Do your homework, and learn how and why markets and economies go through cycles that are directly linked to demographics. It is impossible to figure out where you want to go, if you do not even know where you are.
In a deflationary cycle, assets deflate in value as people sell assets to raise cash in order to pay debt. At the same time money supply is decreased as debts are defaulted on. This means that assets will fall in value, while the value of cash will increase. Preparation for a deflationary cycle means positioning yourself to minimize losses from declining asset values while building cash positions to be able to purchase assets at fire sale prices when prices fall. This means doing your homework so that you logically understand which assets you currently own are at greatest risk, and also which assets you would like to have on your shopping list when prices fall. Have a plan in place when situations change and you will be one of the few who profit, and not one of the many who absorb losses.
What you say makes sense. But there is not a person walking this earth who can predict the future. When the economy looks to be heading in a direction a world event can re-direct that movement in the blink of an eye. We also can't predict world events. Moving money around based on a prediction or an emotion is a good way to insure your money never grows.
You are correct, no one can predict the future and moving money based on prediction or emotion is foolish. However none of that has anything to do with what I am talking about. Understanding economic cycles for an investor is no different than understanding seasons for a farmer. Even though the farmer cannot predict the weather, he still knows that there is a season to plant and a season to harvest. The oldest rule of making money in a market is to buy low and sell high, but few people are willing to put the work into understanding how to do that. Anyone who has been around long enough to have seen a few cycles knows that the warning signs are present before any correction. There were plenty of warning before the dot com crash and plenty of people who were pointing out that fundamentals were being ignored in favor of momentum. The exact same thing is true of the housing crash. The signs were all there, but few people wanted to accept the fact that the party was over. You see greed is an emotion too, and it is the driving decision maker for many when markets become extended. There is little doubt today that the stock market is extended, or that the credit bubble is inflated. And yet there are still people making money as there is in the final days of any bubble, and they will continue to allow their greed to outweigh their reasoning until they are victims of the downturn. Markets are dictated by fear and by greed, for some the circumstances of the recent past and the history of Fed intervention into the markets gives them confidence in the ability of the Fed to control the markets and the economy. The truth is that whatever powers the Fed has to alter the outcome of the marketplace is temporary, and carries with it the consequence of creating a larger problem that it will be powerless to control.
857. Secret deal and stock market (9/25/2014) One phenomenon that China joins US July-October/2014 plot (trap money by war) was that there was an unusual uprising in Chinese stock market after the alleged July 8-9 US-Sino meeting. Taking the advantage of US stock market plot, China government intending to trap its own domestic speculation capital too by pushing up its stock market. In early September, there was such a news in Chinese net: Interpretation: https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/fUER_YXBSOLO8XpuI4Hdowen-seA_vWy_TdAXxcpSnE=438-h207-p-no Shanghai Securities Index Chart The sudden uprising of China stock market synchronized with the military exercises over East China Sea. That military drill will last for three months a timing factor in their secret deal. One payment of the secret deal also relates to the stock market. That is the big debut of Alibaba. The Chinese company got nearly 22 billion from US capital market making it the biggest U.S.-listed IPO in history after the IPO of credit card processing company Visa in 2008. When US is thirst for capital to promote its economy, they gave that big money to China. Rare people know its a payment for the secret deal.
I guess I should learn how to be a better capitalist. I have seen some interesting, virtual trading platforms.
Alibaba crashed?... Will Alibaba crash impact Indian e-comm valuation? Sep 28, 2015, When Alibaba listed on NYSE a year ago, it created history with the highest share sale value, making the Chinese e-commerce giant valued at around $230 billion. A year on, the company might create history again but this time, for the wrong reasons. Its scrip has nosedived close to 40% from its opening price and is now trading at almost $60 mark now. Fuelling the panic is a report by Barron's which predicts the stock price could crash by 50%. So, will Indian e commerce bear the brunt of Alibaba's stock crash?
So how is that buy and hold strategy working for you Skippy? If you have enjoyed the past few months just hang in there and ride this pony to the bottom and you will really have some fun....
Even if the market goes to a downturn, it just means the stocks are on sale for long term investors. Just rebalance your portfolio and invest in things that people have to buy. Also make sure you invest in other things like peer to peer lending, bonds, REITS, silver, etc.
