How Far Will Russia Go?

Discussion in 'Warfare / Military' started by Watchdog, Mar 17, 2014.

  1. Watchdog

    Watchdog Newly Registered

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    Will Russia be satisfied with annexing Crimea? Will they continue on and try to annex part of or the whole Ukraine? Will they go even further and attack a NATO member, risking getting The EU and the U.S. involved militarily?
     
  2. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    Like all tyrants, Putin will push until somebody stops him. My guess is that he wants to restore the 1914 boundaries of the Russian Empire by January 2017. Look out Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Finland.

    The only way Russia doesn't gobble up all of Poland and the Baltic states is if Germany re-arms (quickly!) and takes over the old provinces of Prussia and Silesia.
     
  3. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    Very funny indeed. Putin is a tyrant however that isn't very important, he has limits within Russia and will not take action unless the outcome is favourible because he still has to win elections. So the question isn't what Putin wants, but what can Russia do to restore the 1914 Russian Empire. The answer is not a lot NATO would destroy their armed forces even after their restructuring and improvements. Their economy is to small and will be counter balanced by the EU and later Turkey. Politically nobody want to be part of Russia and wouldn't vote for it like Crimea, however I am sure some area's would but not enough to make it an option. So the only option left to Russia is the Orthodox Christian Church as the basis for their expansion support by a more capable Russian armed force and stable economy. I see in the future as happened before a huge long and hard battle between Turkey and Russia for control over this region with the Europeans supporting which ever side is weaker. Short term Russia has been defeated in Ukraine, we will have to see if this victory holds for the EU or will the Ukrainian nationalists take power and look for their strategic out, which is Turkey. What the Russians want is what they have always wanted a base in the Mediterranean to bypass the Bosphorus like East Thrace and Constantinople restoring the center of their faith. So people need to stop looking for Russian moves west, they aren't interested in invading Catholic or Protestant parts of Europe, all their moves so far have been against Turkey. However they would like a buffer between themselves Germany, Poland and Sweden.
     
  4. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    Do you really think German re-armament is a good thing, the Polish will be browning themselves at the prospect of an agressive looking Russia and a re-arming Germany, the Dutch, French, Danish wouldn't be happy about it either with the German domination of the EU economy. I can't say the UK or US wouldn't welcome it, but we aren't in the firing line if Germany changes course. Just like Japan.

    The best outcome would be the Germans adding a division or two and increasing combat aircraft to 350 orso. So they can better defend against Russian agression into Poland. While improving their naval forces with 10 submarines instead of 6, more missile boats and ASW frigates to help out Poland and Sweden. Much of the German and Danish stuff seems to be more about the North Sea, than the Batlic. They should let the UK, Norway, Holland and France worry about that.
     
  5. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    Two salient facts.

    1. The US is by default going isolationist. The Army was recently cut by a third and and of the surviving 32 brigades only ten are deemed combat-ready. The Air Force is rapidly downsizing as 1970s vintage planes' airframes fatigue out. These aircraft are not being replaced by newer aircraft. The Navy has two aircraft carriers alongside indefinitely due to delays in getting them refueled. Just as well, for their designated escorts - Ticonderoga-class cruisers and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are being taken out of service due to metal fatigue. Like the aircraft, this is not an indication of bad design but non-ferrous alloys tend to fatigue out faster than the steel hulls used in aircraft carriers and submarines. the crusiers and destroyers are all thirty years old or more. Speaking of submarines, the 688(I) class boats are exhausting their nuclear fuel. For nuclear subs that is generally the extent of their service lives and the scrap yard beckons. These boats are not being replaced at the rate they are being tied up,. The US armed forces are demoralized and are hemmorhaging JOs and senior NCOs. Leadership at the top is maybe the worst since after the Civil War. The flag officer corps has been purged and replaced on the basis of political correctness. Precious combat experience is walking out the door. Bottom line: A less capable US military/naval force cannot continue to support an activist foreign policy. The US has to "turtle up" into a neo-isolationist posture for at least the next three years. Europe is on their own.

    2. NATO (less the US) has shown itself to be a toothless dog. In the 1990s they could not handle an aggressive Serbia until US firepower was brought to bear. More recently the performance of NATO (less the US) was shown to be disgraceful in the Libyan affair. NATO could not handle Libya until US forces came into play. If NATO cannot handle second and third rate clients, it is too much to ask of them to resist the Russian bear. The EU could cut its imports of natural gas some, but decades of turning away from coal and the recent Fukushima hysteria has left Europe as a whole with few options. The US theoretically could fill the void with LNG from fracked shale, but the US EPA sits on permit applications for LNG export facilities and looks to do so indefinitely. Thus any embargo of Russian gas to put economic pressure on Putin just generates a lot of cold, out-of-work Europeans.

    Yeah, Russia has a lot of strategic problems and they will eventually bring about a reprise of the collapse of the USSR but not in the near three year time frame. During that time frame, Putin can distract the Russian people by expanding to the old Tsarist boundaries and maybe beyond. Many Russians were distressed by the loss of face after the collapse of the USSR. Putin has given them a bubble of national pride once again. Thjat pride will exact a long-term price but right now it doesn't matter. Russia is not as strong as the mid-1980s USSR, but NATO has dropped off much more. For all practical purposes, there is nothing to stop Putin and he has a lot of reasons to press his case right now.
     
  6. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    I think we have gone over US and European NATO problems so no need to go over it again. Needless to say in general I agree. However you didn't really mention Turkey in all this, they have the second or third best army in NATO aswell as a good air force. What are your views on Turkey vs Russia in the next couple of decades?
     
  7. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    I still think NATO means something. I think those former East Bloc nations that Putin is lusting for won't be touched if they are full NATO members. I realize our current national leadership is a bit feckless but would Putin really think we would abrogate our NATO treaty obligation if he tried to militarily move on a NATO member? Take Estonia. Putin can bluster all he wants, but I don't think he would try to pull a Crimea and scoot troops across the border. That would be a full activation of NATO, and particularly the US. Putin isn't King Joffrey. He can't do everything he wants. There are forces and institutions in Russia that would not want to risk a war with NATO over territory that Russia, with it's declining population, can't use.


    Maybe I'm wrong and Putin really is that reckless and Obama is really that weak, but I find it hard to believe that Putin would want to take that kind of chance.
     
  8. SFJEFF

    SFJEFF New Member

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    To me it is rather simple.

    The United States is not going to war over Ukraine- we have obligations to, and we have no specific world interest other than just confronting Russia.

    A NATO country is a different issue. Regardless of whether the U.S. or NATO is really ready, history shows that defense alliances do tend to lead to war. Americans have been mambers of NATO for virtually everyone's entire lives- and understand the need to fulfill our obligations to defend member nations.

    Russia invades Poland and there will be war between Russia and NATO. Whether or not Putin will risk that I don't know.
     
  9. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    I know the Polish fear Russia however Putin must know that it is bad for his country to border Germany, so I don't think he wants it. Poland is a buffer all be it pro-West and growing. The same goes for Finland, the Russians were also invaded by Sweden. The Russian want to Baltic states to secure their toe hold in the Baltic and defend against Polish and Swedish aggression in the future. They don't want the old Russian Empire of 1914 or the Soviet Union of 1941, people say they do but it hasn't worked out for them trying to expand into territory which isn't culturally Russian. So they could have a short drive from Belarus to Kaliningrad through the Baltic states cut them off and take the Batlic states. What could NATO do about it?
     
  10. xAWACr

    xAWACr Member

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    I don't think Putin will go into Ukraine. I just don't see anything there valuable enough to put it in the 'benefit' column of the cost/benefit table. But I don't claim to be an authority on the Russian mind either. He absolutely won't mess with any NATO states.
     
  11. Domat

    Domat New Member

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    Ends here.
     
  12. Strasser

    Strasser Banned

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    Obama certainly appears weak re foreign policy to a personality type like Putin.

    Re the bolded: history also shows defense agreements put a lid on more conflicts than they cause, and they also shut down and destroy imperialist ambitions of the likes of Kaisers, Hitlers, Khrushchevs, and all the other wannabees.

    There are a number of issues that are important not only the U.S. government but several others, and they are serious ones, and they have to do with whether Putin can keep an agreement of any kind.

    http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2014/03/ukraine-and-the-west-a-international-legal-primer/

    http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2014/03/ukraine-and-the-west-a-international-legal-primer/
     
  13. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Actually, this is not far from the truth.

    However, I think a strong response by NATO will make him stop.

    Do not expect Russia to give up their territorial gains over the last 20 years however. Like any expanding empire, they will not stop unless somebody makes them stop. And some idiots are amazingly quick to forgive Russia for what they do, and insist that nothing can be done about it.

    I read about the same type of people in history class in the past. And I expect appeasement to work as well this time as it did last time.

    And meanwhile, nobody thinks of the nations that are attacked and forced to comply to Russia's demands.
     
  14. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    I don't think NATO is capable of a strong response, and won't be before 2017, earliest.

    Til then, Putin runs wild. And maybe China as well. Only their own inertia inhibits them in 2014.
     
  15. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    It doesn't need a military response, Russia wants Ukraine under Russian influence so it can control it and make sure is doesn't hurt the Russian economy. Russia wants Ukraine to join the Eurasian Union. If we want to stop Russia all we need to do is econmically support Ukraine. This is why I think the UK should remove the 11 billion of loan guarantees to Ireland and give it to Ukraine, using £10 billion of Russian money as the loan through the UK loan guarantees. The UK could remove the EU threat from Russia and improve relations with Russia as a strategic balance against France and Germany controlling the EU. Russia has had a very bad defeat over Ukraine, but political it looks strong over Ukraine. In the end the main block to Russian power isn't European NATO, but Turkey and the UK as it was before.
     
  16. tkolter

    tkolter Well-Known Member

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    I can fix this, rearm Ukraine with nukes say 20 nuclear tipped cruise missiles and systems to defend them from air or land strikes and hand them to the government there with the launch codes. If invaded they can respond hitting back.
     
  17. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    Seriously?
     
  18. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    I reckon this will depend on a number of factors, one of them being the desires of the people in Ukraine.

    I don't take all of this paranoid talk about evil Putin and world conquest at all seriously. I can scarcely believe how fantastical people are getting about this, how blatantly full of it our government and their shill media are, and how much our people are just lapping it all up.
     
  19. axialturban

    axialturban Well-Known Member

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    Putin is just using up the last of the Soviet-era Nationalists to try and get as much turf as he can (through their sacrifice), if he can revitalize a modern Nationalism then he'll take that too, but that is less likely to become entrenched in younger generations unless serious ground conflict sets in. I don't think Putin would allow direct conflict with NATO forces, assuming he knows he cannot control things to that granularity. He is just one of those prick's who starts a fight and then sits back and watches everyone beat their brains out and picks the spoils at the end. You'd think people these days (pro-Russian nationalists) would be smarter then to be used so easily as cannon-fodder for a dictatorial dream.

    As a result NATO needs to speed up military support in the region IMO. The 600 on exercise is a start, but they will need boots in the Ukraine under some UN effort excluding Russian forces.
     
  20. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Do not expect anything from the UN.

    Russia has veto power in the security council, and they are the only body that could authorize such.
     

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