Domino Theory in the 21st Century

Horhey · Apr 9, 2014

The threat of the domino effect pertains to US control of "vital" strategic and natural resources within it's dependencies such as in Venezuela before Chavez. So for example, during the U.S. terrorist wars in Central America, Thomas O. Enders, an Assistant Secretary of State, warned a House subcommittee:

Associated Press: State Department Official Links 'Domino Theory' to El Salvador

New York Times: STRUGGLE IN SALVADOR PINCHES WASHINGTON'S 'VIETNAM NERVE'

If after Nicaragua, El Salvador is captured by a violent minority,...how long would it be before major strategic interests - the Panama Canal, sea lanes, oil supplies, were at risk? The struggle would go on, but on battlefields where the stakes would be much higher. We cannot permit that.
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In a 2004 report forecasting U.S. hegemony in Latin America, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, an advisory group to the CIA, National Security Council (NSC) and Pentagon made up of military and academic national security experts, warned that U.S. corporate and power interests would be threatened by "a wave of anti-imperialistic governments" and "radical, politically revolutionary movements" which would have "a demonstration or contagion effect [which] could cause spillover into other nations.":

National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2020 Project

Latin America 2020: Discussing Long-Term Scenarios

Three low-likelihood scenarios would substantially change the political, economic and social perspectives of the region: large scale emergence of revolutionary indigenism, Brazilian financial collapse, and a wave of “anti-imperialistic” governments in the region.

A. Radical, politically revolutionary indigenous movements in several countries of the region could eventually converge with some non-indigenous but radicalized movements—such as the Brazilian “landless,” the Paraguayan and Ecuadorian peasants, and the Argentine “picketers.” Radicalized indigenous groups already exist in a number of the Latin American countries. In this scenario, by 2020 the groups will have grown exponentially and obtained the majority adherence of indigenous peoples in their countries, and a “demonstration” or “contagion” effect could cause spillover into other nations.

The resulting indigenous irredentism would include rejection of western political and economic order maintained by Latin Americans of European origin, causing a deep social fracture that could lead to armed insurgency, repressive responses by counter-insurgent governments, social violence and even political and territorial balkanization.

A turbulent scenario such as this would drive away capital, investment and the market dynamic itself for a long time. Likewise, regional heterogeneity would deepen among the countries that suffered the advance of ethno-political irredentism (for instance, the Andean Region or Guatemala) and countries with majority European population (for instance, the Southern Cone)

Considering the above-mentioned scenarios of recurring governance crises affecting most of the region, this less likely scenario would add to
the fragile conditions the emergence of radical left-leaning or nationalist governments in Brazil (resulting from a hypothetical financial crash) and Mexico, triggering a “contagion effect” on the other countries. This continental “anti-imperialistic” scenario would entail sub-scenarios of international isolation, impoverishment and capital flight plus conflicts and ungovernance on a regional level.
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twed · Apr 9, 2014

oh, bs, before we gave up anything that was worth a damn, we'd use battlefield neutron nukes.

Horhey · Apr 10, 2014

twed said: ↑

oh, bs, before we gave up anything that was worth a damn, we'd use battlefield neutron nukes.
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And then the world would be "mobilized against you as a butcher" as National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger warned Nixon as he was advocating dropping a nuclear bomb on North Vietnam:

National Security Archive: Nixon White House Considered Nuclear Options Against North Vietnam, Declassified Documents Reveal

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Domino Theory in the 21st Century

Horhey Well-Known Member

twed Banned

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