Iraq mess and ISIL

Discussion in 'Warfare / Military' started by KGB agent, Jul 11, 2014.

  1. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    As you know, there was a recent outbreak of islamic terrorism in Iraq. I am going to post news about the development of the situation there.


    Well, this one seem to be very serious development:

    http://www.nbcnews.com/#/storyline/...-play-down-threat-uranium-stolen-isis-n152926

    Also it is clear they won't be able to assemble an A-bomb from this material, it still might be used for dirty bomb.




    Another one: Iraqi elite 9-th division column was destroyed by ISIS:

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    The absence of hits and other traces of fighting may mean the crews were carved out while sleeping at night or they have just deserted. That is a lot of vehicles captured.
     
  2. AlpinLuke

    AlpinLuke Well-Known Member

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    That uranium is not enriched so that it cannot be used to obtain a critical mass for a nuclear explosion [it's a quantity of about 40kg].

    Can it be used as toxin? Yes, but probably it's more useful as reserve of value. A gr of uranium can values 100$ on the legal market, I guess that they could sell that uranium on the black market also at 250$ - 300$ / gr = other 12,000,000US$ for the cause ...
     
  3. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Assuming there is a black market for uranium in the first place. I mean, who would need i more than ISIS as a weapon? Nobody. Who is going to use it in peaceful activities despite likely to have unrestricted access to legal market? Nobody.
     
  4. AlpinLuke

    AlpinLuke Well-Known Member

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    If you say so ...
     
  5. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    It would be useful for a dirty bomb or merely polluting a municipal water supply, but I agree the better bet is to just sell it. At this point, it seems they need more conventional weapons and troops then tools for terrorism.
     
  6. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    It is all well and good them having or being able to create a dirty bomb, but how are they going to move it anywhere? This is always the issue the bomb is the easy part getting it to where you want it is much harder.

    On another note the US should have gone in hard 4 months ago when the Sunni forces backed by ISIS took that city where 4 American contractors were murder, their car set on fire and their burned bodies hung from a bridge by Al Qaeda forces in Iraq. I think we all know which city I am talking about, I still remember watching the attack online when I was 12 and not being able to sleep for a week. Anyway the US should have moved forces to support Iraq then and asked UN peacekeepers be sent to the Syria-Iraq border. This shouldn't have gone the way it has and the US should have not supported the Syria freedom fighters against Assad, they should have stayed out of it and allowed Russia, Iran, Turkey and Saudi to sort it out. It's hard to know what is going to happen now if the Kurds leave Iraq it will be a repeat of the Shia-Sunni Iran-Saudi proxy war, just without 100,000 US troops to keep it undercontrol. As for Syria this is even harder Assad is holding his own and still the most powerful leader in the area however he can't do what would be needed against ISIS, that could endup being the Kurds who want to gain territory. Turkey is now starting to shift its position in Syria aswell away from Saudi to Assad staying in power, but under their control rather than Iran. The Turks are on the move geopolitically and their isn't alot Iran, Saudi, Israel or Egypt can do about it.
     
  7. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Kurds are already de-facto independent. Peshmerga, however, doesn't look ambitious at fighting ISIS, while goverment forces are unwilling/unable to do that.
    Also, I doubt ISIS is going to push at shia-populated areas. So far it was so easy to them because they were capturing Sunni-populated territory, where they do have some support. Country itself is very likely to fall apart into three parts.

    And about glorious American fighting with terrorists:

    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/n...le-for-delay-in-concluding-f-16-aircraft-deal

    When it comes to actual help to fight actual terrorists US wilingness to do it suddenly dissapears.
     
  8. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    Peshmerga isn't very good, but it is large and willing to fight. Which can't be said of the Iraqi army. The Kurds are walking a thine rope between Turkey, the Iraqi government, ISIS and Sunni groups, they can't afford to be to agressive at this stage, they are doing what they can against ISIS in area's they can ethnically control. The question isn't can ISIS push into Shia area's the question is can Iraqi Shia forces push into Sunni territory and if they do will Saudi and the Gulf states start supplying ISIS over their border with Iraq. That isn't happening now, but it could and if it did the fight would really be on. This is why Americans who want Iran to move in and support the Iraqi Shia government are so stupid if Iran does the Saudi's will supply the ISIS and other Sunni forces, so it causes greater problems. Even if you make Shia Iraq and Sunni Iraq independent it doesn't come close to solving the problem as they will be proxy's for Saudi and Iran in 5 seconds after their creation unless they join together in an alliance with each other and the Kurds. So we are back to the same problem. The problem of where Iraq is between the 3 major Middle east powers, a perfect strategic creation of Winston Churchill I can't tell you how very proud I am that Britain created this mess even if they Americans take the credit for it.

    I also find the 3 state Iraq idea stupid because their is more than 3 ethnic and religious groups in Iraq. The only answer is an external power be it Britain or the US, a strongman controlling Iraq for the external power or you have to totally redraw the map of the region along the lines of religion, language, environment and ethnic grounds. So do anyone want to do what is needed? No they don't Bush wasn't, Blair wasn't and no dumb leftwing plonker is now.
     
  9. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    The corruption built into Shi'ite society guarantees their armies will be unpaid, poorly led, out of fuel and ammunition and they will desert at the drop of a hat.


    Like the Israelis said: The shoddiest soldiers on the planet.
     
  10. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Was it the same Israelis, who got their asses kicked in Lebanon 2006? Or that was another type of them? Or another type of Shias?


    Personally I doubt Iraqi forces can succeed in pushing to ISIS-control territory. In the first post you can see their "effectieness" in combat and those troops were from elite mechanized division. They were supposed to be the best from the best. Reality differs. Well, Iraq was going to be Iran's proxy anyway, so what we see might be exactly a proxy war between Iran(Iraqi goverment) and Saudi Arabia(Kurds and ISIS). This time, however, Saudi Wahhabia is going to be a winner.



    Meanwhile in the news:
    A suicide bomber blew himself up at a Kurdish Peshmerga checkpoint in Kirkuk, killing up to 28 people and wounding 30.

    Tommorow there is going to be a second session of Iraqi parlament. So anything can be expected, starting from official independence of Kurdistand and ending with coup against Maliki. Shall see.
     
  11. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    Kicked Israeli asses in 2006? What kind of fairy-tale world do you live in?

    The only difference in 2006 and other wars was the Hezzies inflicted a couple dozen more casualties before the Israelis figured out what they were doing and countered it. The Israelis took all their objectives.

    The Hezzies burrowed like the NVA did at Cu Chi (and other places) in Vietnam. The Israelis got some advice form the US and made the burrows into deathtraps. Usually this involved shooting some propane (heavier than air so it pools up at the bottom of the hole) and following it with an incendiary grenade. The propane explodes. Those not killed by the explosion are killed by the carbon monoxide generated by the explosion. Then a tunnel rat (with a respirator) goes down and recovers anything worth capturing. Then ANFO explosions collapse the tunnels.

    A great deal more Hezzies died in those tunnels than sraelis outside then. About 20:1.


    Why do you post fairy tales?
     
  12. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    It is called real world. I know you might not be familiar with it since you are still searching for rust on Kuznetsof for....remind me how many months?

    Oh...you say they took all their objectives. Remind me which were those objectives. Because all they have "accomplished" was taking heavy casualties and inflicting no serious damage to Hesbolla whatsoever.

    According to who? Your imagination or constantly lying Israel? Because Israeli casualties are 121 dead and 400 wounded, while Hesbolla admits 250 of it's people dead. It is 1:2 ratio, if you are not good at math. Horrificly high rate of losses for Israel, taking into account their complete supermacy in heavy weapons and airforce.

    Even using Israeli "data", you won't have anything higher that 1:6.

    Rhetorical questions are nice.
     
  13. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    The Kuznetsov is a little hard to get pictures of since she has been in Russian drydock since last fall. Actually the "rustbucket" in question is the Chinese Liaoning (ex-Soviet Varyag). After two weeks of sea trial Liaoning/Varyag was put into drydock in March and (according to the Chinese) will be there until December.

    Both the Kuznetsov and Liaoning/Varyag are what sailors call "yard queens."


    Anything made of ferrous alloys will tend to rust. The old USS Coral Sea was notorious for exterior rust. So much so that sailors nicknamed her "The African Queen" after the rustbucket in the movie. Unlike the Kuznetsov and Liaoning/Varyag, the old Coral Sea maintained a 10 and 2 operational tempo throughout her career. 10 months deployed, 2 months in port per year.
     
  14. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    Reuters, AP, al-jazzero.



    Taxcutter says:
    The Hezzies lost 250 scumbags in ONE RATHOLE. Israeli casualties were 121 for the whole campaign.


    At Iwo Jima, the IJA ( far superior army to the Hezzies, better trained, better led and well-supplied) held out against the US Marines for a few weeks but the Marines killed the IJA in that legendary fortress at a 3:1 clip.
     
  15. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Back on the rustbucket front…the Indians also have an unreliable Soviet-made aircraft carrier. The INS Vikramaditya (ex-Admiral Gorshkov) like the Liaoning, spends most of her time in drydock.

    The Kuznetsov, Liaoning/Varyag, Vikramaditya/Admiral Gorshkov, and the old USS Coral Sea share the same size (about 45,000 tons displacement), but the African Queen maintained a high degree of readiness where the crews of those other ships (to coin Nelson’s observation of the French fleet) drink a lot of port. The Coral Sea was fitted with steam catapults and operated front-line jet combat aircraft throughout her 42 year career. You can’t say that for the old Soviet rustbuckets.

    Looks to me like the Russians and Ukrainians unloaded some useless junk on the Chinese/Indians for Nimitz-class prices.


    Let's not even go into those three old Kilo-class submarines the Russians snookered the Iranians into buying. They never leave port and they never submerge. With good reason, I suspect.
     
  16. KGB agent

    KGB agent Well-Known Member

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    Links?



    Nope, you have it wrong. Hesbolla lost total 250 fighters per whole campain. A miserable failure by Israel. Israel is only good at killing unarmed kids these days. When they face resistance they have their asses kicked.
    So? How is that relevant?

    Oh, wow, no pics since 1991.

    Can you stop failing in each sentence? It returned to the port only 14th May 2014.
    Oh, sure, the first Chinese carrier have no reason to be at dock. Ever. Unlike those two US carriers which are waiting refuel...for how long now?
    Again, baseless assumption.

    Does it? It only entered service in November 2013. Hardly enough time has passed so you can judje about it without being accused of being butthurt/having agenda.
    Oh, wow, incompetence hits again. Both Varyag and Kuznetsow are 65 000 tons displacement.
    They both seem to be happy with their purchases. I wonder why nobody bought Nimits? Because they knew unreliable American junk is going to spend half of it's service time in port for "repairs"?

    Prooflinks? Nah, forget it, that is too complicated task for you.
     
  17. MeatyMeat

    MeatyMeat New Member

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    The United States has never offered any Nimitz class for sale, nor would it. LOL thats just a silly thought.
     
  18. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    The French did offer the Clemenceau - a small CATOBAR carrier for sale.

    No takers.
     
  19. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Well actually it is the Sunni that has more Corruption within their ranks than the Shia......as they are considered more Moderate.

    As a matter of fact last week.....the Sunni VP told the US not to interfere in their Civil War.
     
  20. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    Maybe. Maybe not.

    But corruption plays a big part in the utterly disgraceful performance of Iraqi Shia forces in the face of somewhat less disgraceful ISIL. Too often Iraqi army units are not supplied (hard to fight without fuel and ammunition) because the crooks in the logistics chain sell off the ammunition and fuel for their own gain.
     
  21. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    I wont disagree with you as the Shia have always been more tribal and stick to their Militia's......but the Sunni from there and all other ME countries are more corrupt than any other Arabs. Its their so called belief in Capitalism.

    Why do you think the Saud made it a point to get rid of Gadhafi......even worked for the Same goal as the MB backed by Qatar. Plus plays on the Sectarian Divide.

    Moreover it was the Iraqi's that left their position on the Saudi Border allowing the Saud to place 30k there. Right in what is considered. No man's land.

    This while the Iranians have 10 divisions on the Border with a straight shot into Baghdad.
     
  22. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    All that is fine but the main reason the Shi'ite Iraqi force suck so bad (whipped by a force that is losing to Assad in Syria) is that the corruption in their own organization (supplies being sold to enrich supply officers and their own officers nabbing their paychecks) disarms and demoralizes the troops.

    I'm sure the Saudis, Syrians and Iranians also steal from their troops - it is endemic in southwest Asia (except Israel) - just not as much. Being out of beans, bullets nand ammunition causes armies to perform poorly.
     
  23. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Well, Right now they have the Largest force in Iraq.....over 100k Strong. They are keeping ISIL away from Samarra and dropping any Bombs on that Holy ground.

    As if the Terrorists do.....it will be a repeat of 2006 with the Sectarian Divide opening up and then will spill over to their surrounding countries.

    In Syria it is a bit different with Assad having to take on......ISIL and then the Western back MB Rebels.
     
  24. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    A large force without ammunition, fuel and other supplies is just a bunch of dudes sitting around waiting to surrender. They can't fight and they can't get away. Heads will roll.
     
  25. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Well, the Shia have weapons and Iran will always make sure they do. They just need to take out these Terrorists. Anything else can be left for the people of Iraq to decide who will rule over them.
     

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