Another Military History "What-if?" For You

Discussion in 'Warfare / Military' started by Taxcutter, Jul 23, 2014.

  1. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    What would the course of World War Two have been if the British government had accepted Hitler's peace overtures in late June 1940? This is before the Battle of Britain began.

    This is not even implausible. Britain was looking at a long war against a continental power they had not capability of getting at. their army, although the men were largely saved at Dunkirk was just a bunch of dudes with bolt-action rifles. The jury was still out on the RAF in June 1940 (that changed historically). Hitler (unable to get at Britain) was offereing them "boots on the ground" peace with no reparations or penalties. Parliament could have fired Churchill. They had done it before and they distinctly didn't like Churchill. Halifax would have made peace.

    Big delta. Without the RAF in Greece, Hitler doesn't waste six weeks of campaign season wandering around in the Balkans but strikes the USSR in the first week of May 1941. With six more weeks of good weather does the Wehrmacht take Moscow?

    Not tangled up with Hitler, Britain can reinforce Singapore/Malaya. Japan doesn't see so much western weakness and maybe attacks the Soviets instead. By the summer of 1942 the Soviet garrison east of Irkutsk would be minimal. Japan could ignore the US and nab a massive chunk of Maritime Siberia. If they could reach the Kultuk Gorge, the Soviets would never be able to dislodge them.
     
  2. Imnotreallyhere

    Imnotreallyhere Well-Known Member Donor

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    Given that I think the main European action of WWII was between the Germans and the Soviets, I think the major effect would have been to lengthen the war. But not by much, maybe six months at the outside. Then with the atomic bomb the Axis still loses.
     
  3. Germania

    Germania Member

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    If this happened in 40' as the British War Cabinet actually considered, this would mean obviously Britains out of the equation. This gives Nazi Germany a reason to be able to concentrate forces for an attack on Russia, which they would successfully complete. It'll be such a large area to govern they'll likely give eastern areas to Japan. Germany will not declare war on the UK again, so their territory will not expand into the Middle East. They'll complete their extermenation of the jews, and probabily feel liberated to than invade Sweden and possibly Portugal and Spain. The treaty with Britain will allow Germany to do what they want in Europe at will, while Britain will probabily eventually become Nazi Germany's wife as there engulfed by Nazi Germany, and will hand over jews and such. Europe become's a Nazi state.

    Japan will still attack the US, and Japan will go to war. Germany and Italy do so as well. Japan will leave Australia (probabily) and India therefore alone as they're friends with Germany. Japan will still lose ground as they're facing a United States that's now defensive (Can't go to Europe without the UK) , and so can concentrate on the Pacfic. Nazi Germany (Can't invade the US with their very weak navy) and Japan enter a long, low scale war that eventually ends in a cease-fire, peace treaty, or American invasion.
     
  4. RiaRaeb

    RiaRaeb Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    As you have said it was a very real possibility. With the British out the war and Russia under attack how would Stalin have responded? As it was Stalin thought he was about to be replaced, would the Russians had turned to Zhukov as their leader or would it just have disintegrated into a leaderless rable. And with the Japanese looking to attack the Siberian regiments could not have be released and surely the Battle of Moscow would of been lost.
    But I would like to add another question, that of Hitler himself. How long would he have been able to stay as leader, historians believe that he was suffering from Parkinsons for some considerable time. Who would of replaced him in the Third Reich.
     
  5. Germania

    Germania Member

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    "their army, although the men were largely saved at Dunkirk was just a bunch of dudes with bolt-action rifles."

    Hitler later complained in his last days at the fuher bunker about his mistake in allowing the British to retreat. He may actually of stupidly allowed them to escape out of kindness. It is known he ordered forces to stop their drive on Dunkirk two days beforehand

    "Balkans but strikes the USSR in the first week of May 1941. With six more weeks of good weather does the Wehrmacht take Moscow?"

    He was supposed to strike earlier in May but logistics delayed it. Had he done so with winter clothing, yes. Had he done it first week in May, probabily. They were stopped at the suburbs, and remember Berlin took like a single week. Also, with all of their men at Hitler's disposal, probabily.

    "Not tangled up with Hitler, Britain can reinforce Singapore/Malaya. Japan doesn't see so much western weakness and maybe attacks the Soviets instead."

    Britain and Germany would have a "honeymoon" period for a few years, so it is very doubtful Japan would of attacked British colonies, at their own risk and the alliances. Germany would be the leading global power by a margin, so Japan would have a lot to lose in aggravating the Germans.
     
  6. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    I'll comment on the wider aspects later, but I do agree that overall Germany (undistracted by a viable second front) defeats the USSR and at minimum effects regime change and exacts a territorial price. I doubt even Hitler thinks he can conquer every square meter.

    Hitler has no reason to invade Sweden. By 1940, Sweden has been in Germany's economic orbit for eighty years. any number of swedes joined the Waffen SS.

    Spain is an ungovernable wreck and Portugal has nothing but location.

    As part of the final peace with France, Germany may establish a German enclave at the tip of the Britanny peninsula. Maybe the last fifty kilometers.
    Germany fortifies and establishes air and naval bases there plus occupies Iceland (a Danish colony in 1940). this rerverses the geographic advantage that Britain long enjoyed over Germany, putting air and naval bases athwart Britain's import sea lanes, ensuring continued British neutrality during a go at Stalin.

    Greenland is useless as are the Dutch and French Caribbean holdings. The Germans 'sell" all those holdings to the US for a token sum and thus keep the Monroe Doctrine off their backs and the US remains on the sidelines.
     
  7. Questerr

    Questerr Banned

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    Siberia in 1940 didn't have oil. There is no scenario in which the Japanese don't go after the Dutch East Indies and therefore also the Philippines and Malaya.
     
  8. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    Without the provocations of sneak attack and invasion, I don't think it's clear at all that the British and/or Americans go to war over the DEI. Roosevelt would particularly have to eat mega-crow as he had thundered against European colonization most of his adult life.
     
  9. Questerr

    Questerr Banned

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    Realpolitick says that is utter bull(*)(*)(*)(*).
     
  10. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    Practical logistics say the admirals and generals would STRONGLY caution against attacking Japan without egregious provocation.

    Singapore is more than 12,000 nautical miles form the UK even with the Suez Canal open. The US forces in the PI are a year away from more than token resistance and Manila is a long way from SF via Honolulu. Isolationism was still very strong in the US.

    Realpolitik. What does either the US or UK have to gain by trying (unsuccessfully) to stop the Japanese from taking the DEI? Nothing. Even if they win, they have to give the DEI back to Germany (who occupies Holland).
     
  11. Questerr

    Questerr Banned

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    You mean egregious provocation like going around an embargo on strategic materials laid in place because they invaded a sovereign nation's territory by invading a sovereign nation's territory to seize its strategic materials?

    And they would not give the DEI to Germany since it belongs to the Dutch government in exile.
     
  12. Routist

    Routist New Member

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    You overstate the importance of British involvement in the Second World War. It should be noted that after Dunkirk the British armed forces did not undertake any strategically significant action nor force the diversion of large portions of the Wehrmacht's reserve until the summer of 1943 with the Italian campaign and even then that can be seen as a strategic and operational backwater. On the topic of the battle of Britain it should be noted that while German losses amongst aircraft were indeed high, they were not unsustainable. The Luftwaffe was able to recuperate its losses before the advent of Operation Barbarossa, the same goes for its losses in the Low countries-France campaign. While British performance in the North African theatre justly deserves the lauding it gets it only served as a meagre distraction for the German armed forces and one they never fully committed to as shown by the constant supply problems, lack of equipment and material deficiencies suffered by the Africa corps, not to mention that ultimately only some 20 divisions took part in the campaign.
     
  13. Pro-Consul

    Pro-Consul Banned

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    Japan would need to seriously consider whether it wanted to invade British possessions in the far east.
    This is because Britain doesn't need to worry quite as much about Europe and can move forces to reinforce Singapore and HK if this is allowed to happen then Japan would have to rule out attacking Malaya especially considering how Yamashta was on the verge of withdrawal.
    Strategically both HK and Singapore offer limited advantage to Japan they really have little to gain.

    I think that Japan would continue to focus on China and it's seems like a 50/50 chance that Japan would move against Russia.
    After all Japan's strength lies with it's Navy more than it's Army
     
  14. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    One of the condition of Hitler's peace offer was Britain would repudiate Queen Wilhelmina and her government in exile. If the UK repudiates her, I can't see the US doing any different.
     
  15. Questerr

    Questerr Banned

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    Britain would never accept that condition.

    And why would the US follow the British model even if they did? The Netherlands was a democracy. Are we going to reject a democratic government in favor of a Nazi one?
     
  16. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    Never say never. The UK and Holland have a long tradition of mercantile rivalry. Now, you're right...a Churchill government would never accept it. But a Halifax government might.

    "On such slender pins turn the hinge of fate..."


    Taxcutter says:
    We are not talking about the Netherland proper. We are talking about a COLONY. One that FDR had specifically thundered away against in the 1930s
     
  17. Questerr

    Questerr Banned

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    No, were talking about a democratic government in exile.
     
  18. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    The government in exile and the colonial government of the East Indies were fairly independent of each other. The historical loss of the DEI in 1942 did not affect the government in exile at all
     
  19. Questerr

    Questerr Banned

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    The government in exile is not going to agree to give up the DEI so long as it exists.
     
  20. jdog

    jdog Banned

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    I think things would have worked out very much similar to the way they did anyway due to the different national interests. England would have saved themselves some suffering, and Germany would have ended up part of the Soviet Union but much of the rest of the war would have happened anyway. With Hitler not having to defend the western front he would be able to devote more resources to the eastern front. Without England for a launching point for a European Front the US would have no place to base an invasion. I think Germany and the Soviet Union would have been engaged in a long war which would eventually been won by the Soviets. The US would have had at some point, to curtail Japans expansion into south east Asia would have found some pretext to go to war with Japan. England could have entered the war at the last minute liberating western Europe from Germany.
     
  21. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    If a Halifax government really wants peace (and from the June 1940 perspective, they have really good reasons to do so) Holland would not be the first ally 'perfidious Albion' had sold down the river.

    What Wilhelmina's court has to say is of secondary concern.
     
  22. Questerr

    Questerr Banned

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    So the government of the Netherlands moves to America or a nation in Latin America. Are you arguing that the British would hand people who would probably be imprisoned and murdered over to the Nazis?
     
  23. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    Certainly the Netherlands government in exile would go to western hemisphere somewhere (Wilhelmina didn't get along with FDR any better than she did with Churchill) or maybe even to Batavia. The DEI was the biggest Dutch colony. The condition was to repudiate Wilhelmina, not hand her over.
     
  24. Questerr

    Questerr Banned

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    Even if Britain repudiates the Netherlands government, that does not in any way give them the authority to hand the DEI over to Germany.
     
  25. Taxcutter

    Taxcutter New Member

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    Taxcutter says:
    If Britain repudiates the Netherlands government, they have no standing to say anything to anybody about the DEI.

    The Netherlands government in exile added very little to the war against Hitler. A few pilots and some merchant ships. The Free French and Free Polish contributed several divisions (many of the Free French were African askaris). Even the Jews in "Palestine"contributed an entire infantry brigade.
     

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