Climate Change Could Happen Slower for the Next Decade, Study Says

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by longknife, Aug 23, 2014.

  1. longknife

    longknife New Member

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  2. PeakProphet

    PeakProphet Active Member

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    I always become squirrelly when people use the word "unprecedented"...it tends to indicate a myopic perspective, as it does in this article. Temperatures are certainly only unprecedented if you don't include all those centuries of warmer temperatures we've had before.

    The article appears to be part of the backpedaling that is expected in the face of the reality of recent non-temperature change. In the flavor of "the ocean ate my warming". Pretty standard stuff really.
     
  3. livefree

    livefree Banned

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    LOLOL.....grasping at straws again....

    You say: "It's getting warmer and ice sheets are melting which is going to cause the oceans to rise and drown seaside cities. Or …..?"

    Or what? There is nothing in the article you cited that in any way says or implies that the Earth is not getting warmer or that the ice sheets aren't melting or that the sea level isn't rising or that seaside cities aren't in danger.....so what is the your imaginary alternative indicated by your question "or....?"??? The article talks about a study indicating that a heat exchange cycle in the Atlantic Ocean that moves warmer and colder water around may continue to slow the rise of surface air temperatures for a few more years before the heat starts returning to the surface. The article states:
    The study, published in the journal Science, explained the temporary slowdown in rising temperatures as a potential consequence of the end of a 30-year current cycle in the Atlantic Ocean that pushes heat into the ocean. “In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans,” the study says. Despite this brief respite, the study says temperatures will begin to rise more quickly after the cycle is complete.

    So, yeah, the Earth is continuing to warm, the heat has just been temporarily going more into heating the oceans than into raising the near-surface air temperatures as a result of some ocean heat transfer cycles. And yeah, the ice sheets and glaciers are still melting, the sea levels are rising and all of the world's coastal cities and infrastructure are still severely endangered by that rise in sea levels. The research you cited changes none of that.
     
  4. Elmer Fudd

    Elmer Fudd New Member

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    LOL......isn't it funny that these "scientists" bought and paid for by the liberal media and politicians, always come up with a new study to explain why last years predictions of doom and gloom didn't happen. Then next year, when it doesn't happen again, yet another "study" explains it away and confidently declares that this time FOR SURE, the doom is upon us, unless of course, we send in $$$ and raise taxes, then the world will be saved.

    I have given more than one talk to students and professional societies going over the doomsday predictions of the 90's and 2000's and how we are all supposed to be underwater and the polar bears extinct 5 years ago. Its always good for a light-hearted chuckle at the end of a long symposium.

    Here in Alabama they can't get the weekend weather right, but the EPA wants us to believe they can predict the world's temperature 50 years forward within a tenth of a degree.......hilarious, only liberals..........
     
  5. longknife

    longknife New Member

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    Thank you. :clapping:
     
  6. livefree

    livefree Banned

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    LOLOL.....just more fraudulent denier cult delusions and crackpot conspiracy theories....same old BS...

    The fact is that almost all of the developments that climate scientists have predicted would happen, are happening, often even faster that they had expected.

    GLOBALLY.....

    * Sixteen years ago 1998 became the hottest year on record by a considerable margin.

    * All of the hottest years on record have occurred since 1998.

    * The coldest years since 1998 are still hotter than all of the hottest years before 1998.


    * Currently 2010 is tied with 2005 as the hottest year on record, in records going back to the 1800s.

    * 2013 was the fourth hottest year on record.

    * The last decade was the hottest decade on record, as was the decade before that and the decade before that, in turn.

    * This last November 2013 was the hottest November on record globally.

    * This last April 2014 was tied with April 2010 as the hottest April on record globally.

    * This last May was the hottest May on record globally.

    * This last June was the hottest June on record globally.

    * This last June was the 352nd consecutive month (29 years) with global average temperatures higher than the average temperature for that month, averaged over the entire twentieth century.

    * The Arctic ice cap is still rapidly melting away.

    * Large areas northern permafrost are still rapidly melting.

    * Greenland and Antarctica are still losing ice mass at increasing rates.

    * The large majority of mountain glaciers are still rapidly melting and disappearing.

    * Sea levels are still rising at an accelerating rate.


    GLOBALLY....this is the actual temperature record.....

    [​IMG]
    Global temperature (annual values) in the data from NASA GISS (orange) and from Cowtan & Way (blue), i.e. HadCRUT4 with interpolated data gaps.
    One can clearly see the extreme year 1998, which (thanks to the record-El Niño) stands out above the long-term trend like no other year. But even taking this outlier year as starting point, the linear trend 1998-2013 in all four data sets is positive. Also clearly visible is 2010 as the warmest year since records began, and the minima in the years 2008 and 2011/2012. But just like the peaks are getting higher, these minima are less and less deep.

    (source: RealClimate)






    And once again you demonstrate how extremely little you understand about either meteorology or climatology.

    If we can’t predict weather two weeks ahead, how can we predict climate fifty years from now?
    ClimateCentral
    Published: Nov 7th, 2009
    Climate refers to the average environmental conditions in a particular place over time, usually over a 30-year span. Weather describes the actual conditions at a given time, day-to-day, and even hour-to-hour. There are plenty of other familiar situations where the same sort of difference applies. For example, we know the average lifespan of people born in the US, but individuals live a lot longer or a lot shorter than the average, depending on their diets, lifestyles, genetics, and other factors. The difference between average conditions and actual conditions is why weather reports include two numbers — the normal, or average, high for the day, which is climate; and the actual high for the day, which is weather, or at least one aspect of weather. The reason it’s so hard to predict the weather very far in advance is because weather is incredibly complex and dynamic. Factors like today’s temperature, humidity, prevailing winds, and local geography all have an influence on tomorrow’s weather. What happens tomorrow determines what will happen the next day, and so on. Even the tiniest unknown factor in today’s weather, say the humidity over a patch of forest, increases the uncertainty of making tomorrow’s forecast. The situation makes the forecasts for next week even less certain, and forecasting even further into the future becomes increasingly more challenging.

    Climate is very different. While climate is also an exceedingly complex system, we aren’t looking at local, day-to-day details, but rather focusing on the average conditions for a region over time. And those change much more slowly. Nobody can tell you what the temperature will be on August 10, 2020, in New York City, but it’s very likely to be a lot warmer than on February 10, 2020, because New York City’s climate is hot in summer and cold in winter. The city also happens to have a fair amount of both rain and snow. The climate in San Diego, California, is warm, but not hot most of the year, with relatively little rain and essentially no snow. Buffalo, New York, is very cold in winter and gets a huge amount of snow. And so on. You instinctively know the climate where you live because it doesn’t change a lot from year to year. There are many factors that determine climate, including the Earth’s orbit around the Sun and the Sun’s brightness. Climate is also governed by changes in ice sheets, in ocean currents, and in the gases that make up the atmosphere. Climate scientists continue to use Earth observations and models to improve their understanding of these forces. They now have decades of environmental data and model experience to know in a general way what’s likely to happen if one of those factors changes. As a consequence, it is possible to project with some confidence — while acknowledging the uncertainties — what the climate will be like 50 years in the future based on general trends; on computer models that capture, though not perfectly, the dynamics of the climate system; and on our scientific insights into past climate conditions. The dark blue band (all years) and the light blue line show how rarely the actual temperature hits the average.
     
  7. Elmer Fudd

    Elmer Fudd New Member

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    Same old story....repeat it over and over and the masses will believe.

    Well, the masses are tired of doomsday that never comes. I could post a list here just as long of failed doomsday predictions. Millions of greenies out there, just about every random event is "predicted"....

    So the world is giving a hoo-hum to the tired old church of global warming...when are you going to find a new obsession?
     
    longknife and (deleted member) like this.
  8. livefree

    livefree Banned

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    More delusional nonsense from a hard core reality denier. The majority of people in the world accept the reality of AGW. Of course, things must look very different when your head is firmly jammed into the denier cult echo chamber and the real world is invisible to you.
     
  9. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Isn't that the 30th hypothesis now for the lack of warming?
     
  10. livefree

    livefree Banned

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    There has been no "lack of warming" - that's a denier cult myth.

    Perhaps you missed this because you keep your eyes shut to any actual evidence for AGW, so here you go again....

    GLOBALLY.....

    * Sixteen years ago 1998 became the hottest year on record by a considerable margin.

    * All of the hottest years on record have occurred since 1998.

    * The coldest years since 1998 are still hotter than all of the hottest years before 1998.


    * Currently 2010 is tied with 2005 as the hottest year on record, in records going back to the 1800s.

    * 2013 was the fourth hottest year on record.

    * The last decade was the hottest decade on record, as was the decade before that and the decade before that, in turn.

    * This last November 2013 was the hottest November on record globally.

    * This last April 2014 was tied with April 2010 as the hottest April on record globally.

    * This last May was the hottest May on record globally.

    * This last June was the hottest June on record globally.

    * This last June was the 352nd consecutive month (29 years) with global average temperatures higher than the average temperature for that month, averaged over the entire twentieth century.

    * The Arctic ice cap is still rapidly melting away.

    * Large areas northern permafrost are still rapidly melting.

    * Greenland and Antarctica are still losing ice mass at increasing rates.

    * The large majority of mountain glaciers are still rapidly melting and disappearing.

    * Sea levels are still rising at an accelerating rate.


    GLOBALLY....this is the actual temperature record.....

    [​IMG]
    Global temperature (annual values) in the data from NASA GISS (orange) and from Cowtan & Way (blue), i.e. HadCRUT4 with interpolated data gaps.
    One can clearly see the extreme year 1998, which (thanks to the record-El Niño) stands out above the long-term trend like no other year. But even taking this outlier year as starting point, the linear trend 1998-2013 in all four data sets is positive. Also clearly visible is 2010 as the warmest year since records began, and the minima in the years 2008 and 2011/2012. But just like the peaks are getting higher, these minima are less and less deep.

    (source: RealClimate)
     
  11. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So yourself a favor and get up to speed.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=glo...g+hiatus&rls=com.yahoo:en-US:official&tbm=nws
     
  12. jc456

    jc456 New Member

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    S0n you need to sync up with the IPCC because that ain't what they say? You all are loony tunes though. What's up Doc?:rock_slayer:

    And you're melting ice cap concern is ludicrous
     
  13. livefree

    livefree Banned

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    LOLOLOLOL.......sooooo hilarious......the VERY FIRST result of that google search is this article:

    We're Stuck With the Global Warming "Hiatus" Myth for Years to Come
    New Republic
    AUGUST 25, 2014
    (excerpts)
    When it’s cold outside, people are less likely to think of climate change as a problem. Conservatives love to take advantage of this. It’s why Senator James Inhofe pokes fun at Al Gore when it’s snowing out and why, these days, all the climate deniers keep saying that the planet stopped warming 17 years ago.

    Scientists take a different view. Looking at a decade or two is cherry-picking the data, they say, because surface temperatures are still hotter than ever. Each decade has been warmer than the one before it, with 13 of the 14 warmest years in recorded history happening in the twenty-first century. And while surface temperatures haven't gotten much warmer, the oceans have. Increasingly, scientists have looked at the ocean's role in absorbing the excess heat—and now an additional study suggests how that process works.

    The study, which appeared Friday in the journal Science, comes from Xianyao Chen of the Ocean University of China and Ka-Kit Tung of the University of Washington. They document the ways that ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean have accelerated, driving trapped heat deep into the water and out of the atmosphere. (Previous research focused on heating in the Pacific and Indian Oceans for the extra heat intake.) The oceans won’t siphon off heat forever, the researchers warn. They expect it's plausable that the “hiatus” in warming surface temperatures will last another decade, after which atmospheric temperatures are likely to rise quickly again. “When the internal variability that is responsible for the current hiatus switches sign, as it inevitably will, another episode of accelerated global warming should ensue," the paper’s authors write.

    In an ideal world, the paper would make climate change deniers take notice. In the real world, it will probably embolden them further. And that’s bound to have political consequences.

    Today, in polls on public views of global warming, usually around two-thirds of respondents say they believe it’s real and the product of human activity. That’s not bad, but a much smaller portion, 38 percent in a different poll, think climate change will harm them personally. Public opinion is shaped largely by extreme weather events, like hot temperatures. (A 2013 study in the journal Climatic Change found a close correlation between temperature extremes of the last three to twelve months and how people feel about climate change.) Hotter than average temperatures are already the new normal, but deniers are just as certain to hijack selective evidence.


    2nd result on page -
    Cause of global warming hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean
    August 21, 2014

    4th result on page -
    NASA Climate Scientist Explains 15-Year ‘Global Warming Hiatus’
    August 6, 2014
    A NASA scientist described a recent “global warming hiatus” that shows Earth’s surface temperatures warming at a slower rate than previous decades – but it is still warming.

    There are four more articles linking the slowdown in the rise of near-surface air temperatures to ocean warming....on a page with only 10 search results...

    Also, on the same page, in addition to the results listed above is this....making 8 out of ten results affirming that the Earth hasn't stopped warming, just more of the excess heat has been going into the oceans over the last decade.

    A perfect example of how global-warming deniers spread falsehoods
    Aug. 11, 2014
     
  14. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You realize there are currently 30 hypothesis for the current hiatus. Now that you have accepted it, which one is correct?
     
  15. livefree

    livefree Banned

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    There is no actual "hiatus". The basic laws of physics combined with the direct satellite measurements of the incoming solar energy versus the amount of energy the Earth is radiating away into space demonstrates conclusively that the Earth has continued to receive more energy from the sun than it has been shedding into space, so the accumulation of heat has continued unabated. The energy has just been going into a different part of the Earth system. The oceans have always been absorbing over 90% of the solar energy the Earth receives but recently scientists have discovered that even more of the excess heat that the elevated levels of CO2 have been retaining has been going into the oceans and moving into even deeper ocean waters too. Even an apparent slowdown in the rate of (just) surface air temperature warming, based on the somewhat incomplete HadCRUT data, turned out to be the result of an underestimation of the speed with which the Arctic is heating up.

    Global warming since 1997 more than twice as fast as previously estimated, new study shows
     
  16. Battle3

    Battle3 Well-Known Member

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    LOL, no they don't accept AGW, what they do want is a piece of USA wealth transferred to their bank account via "carbon credits" or some green energy charade. Notice that only the US has to make the major sacrifices, everyone else gets a pass.
     
  17. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Notice they pick 97 instead of 98 when the hiatus started. Nice cherry picking.

    LOL, Dana Nuticcelli from Cook's (Un)Skeptical Science and this:

    What would you expect from CAGW advocacy wonks? Like I said before, do yourself a favor and read something other than CAGW advocacy blogs.
     
  18. Lord of Planar

    Lord of Planar New Member

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    But...

    But...

    But...

    They CO2 is causing the warming, and it's rise isn't slowing down...

    - - - Updated - - -

    Please, we don't need you to keep quoting scripture. We've heard it all, already.
     
  19. livefree

    livefree Banned

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    Demented delusional drivel. Wrong on every point. Too pathetic to bother with.
     
  20. livefree

    livefree Banned

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    You obviously have no idea what 'cherry-picking' data even means, even though you do it all the time.

    1997-98 is the time of the strongest El Niño on record when world temperatures spiked way above previously recorded levels. The denier cult propagandists deliberately picked 1998 as the start date for their phony 'flat' temperature trend analysis. That's called 'cherry-picking'!

    There is no 'hiatus'. The Earth, including the atmosphere, the oceans, the land and the ice, have all continued to heat up as a result of the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

    Global warming continues with no slow down
    By: JeffMasters
    March 27, 2013
    One often hears the statement in the media that global warming stopped in 1998, or that there has been no global warming for the past 16 years. Why pick 16 years? Why not some nice round number like 20 years? Or better yet, 30 years, since the climate is generally defined as the average weather experienced over a period of 30 years or longer? Temperatures at Earth's surface undergo natural, decades-long warming and cooling trends, related to the La Niña/El Niño cycle and the 11-year sunspot cycle. The reason one often hears the year 1998 used as a base year to measure global temperature trends is that this is a cherry-picked year. An extraordinarily powerful El Niño event that was the strongest on record brought about a temporary increase in surface ocean temperatures over a vast area of the tropical Pacific that year, helping boost global surface temperatures to the highest levels on record (global temperatures were warmer in both 2005 and 2010, but not by much.) But in the years from 2005 - 2012, La Niña events have been present for at least a portion of every single year, helping keep Earth's surface relatively cool. Thus, if one draws a straight-line fit of global surface temperatures from 1998 to 2012, a climate trend showing little global warming results. If one picks any year prior to 1998, or almost any year after 1998, a global warming trend does result. The choice of 1998 is a deliberate abuse of statistics in an attempt to manipulate people into drawing a false conclusion on global temperature trends.






    LOLOLOL......sooooo clueless....I read and cite the actual scientific research being published in reputable, peer-reviewed science journals and the reports on such research that appear in major newspapers and magazines.....while you parrot the fraudulent propaganda and misinformation, that you get duped with, from fossil fuel industry funded blogs and rightwingnut commentators.

    Do yourself (and everybody else) a favor and read some real science instead of just the fraudulent propaganda the fossil fuel industry tries to push.
     
  21. longknife

    longknife New Member

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    On and on it goes. And, in the end, nobody knows for sure about any of it! :roll:
     
  22. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ah yes, this is another attempt to deny the hiatus. LOL Sorry, the reason there are now 30 different hypothesis for the hiatus is because there is a recognized hiatus.

    Like the most recent one.


    Has Earth's Missing Heat Been Found?
     
  23. reallybigjohnson

    reallybigjohnson Banned

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    People seriously need to quit arguing over global warming. Clearly there is no political will to go nuclear anytime soon and even if we started building right now it would be several decades before we could build enough reactors.

    There are two possibilities. Either AGW is being blown way out of proportion and/or the effects won't be harmful as stated, or AGW is not being exaggerated but there is nothing we can do about it...........NOTHING.

    China passed by the US as the world's number one polluter years ago and India and Mexico have increased their output dramatically in recent decades. Even if the US cut our emmissions to zero it will have minimal if any impact at all. Therefore there is no point in squabbling over it anymore. It is or isn't going to happen and if it does we will have to adapt.
     
  24. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You are on the money. Well said.
     
  25. livefree

    livefree Banned

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    So, so pathetic...equating science with religious "scripture".....you've "heard it all, already" you say, but somehow you've avoided learning anything....you reject the testimony of the world scientific community, not for any sound and rational reasons, but just because you DON'T WANT TO BELIEVE IT for whatever personal ideological or economic or political reasons that are involved in blinding you to the facts....the world has to make some changes to deal with this climate change crisis and those changes probably offend your ideological imperatives, even if the changes are actually necessary for the survival of our civilization and maybe even our species.
     

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