HockeyStick, finally updated with modern trees, collapses

Discussion in 'Science' started by Hoosier8, Dec 7, 2014.

  1. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    HockeyStick, finally updated with modern trees, collapses

    I have been saying this ever since the hockey stick became popular with politicians. You cannot tack on the temperature record to proxies and have any idea what is actually happening.

     
  2. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's right, one misrepresented paper destroys the dozens of hockey sticks that have nothing at all to do with tree rings.

    It's just standard CultOfMcIntyre nonsense, that is. Fools the rubes, of course.
     
  3. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Dozens? LOL Facts, so difficult for true believers. When you use the same data and technique of Michael Mann you come up with the same nonsense. Even the latest hockey stick has been debunked by the creator of it (and also the error they made).
     
  4. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Good news for Mark Steyn in Mann's defamation suit.
     
  5. Poor Debater

    Poor Debater New Member

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    It has been known for decades, and widely discussed in dendrochronology literature, that the correlation between temperature and tree ring density sharply declined in the mid 20th century, probably due to air pollution.

    In other words: nothing new here at all. And nothing that MBH didn't already know about and account for.
     
  6. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In other words, explain away the difference to prefer the meme. 'Probably' isn't any kind of scientific proof. Actually, Mann knew about it but hid it, that is why he cherry picked the end date of 1980.
     
  7. Panzerkampfwagen

    Panzerkampfwagen New Member

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    Probability IS what the lay person refers to as scientific proof.
     
  8. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I just wish that climatology was in the realm of hard science. While there is some good knowledge in that field, there are so much that is not known, due to the complexity of the interrelationships, and when they try to use their limited knowledge and make models, the models fail to live up to the predictions. So, they fudge and adjust the models so as to appear they know what they are doing. And of course, they really don't. So it depends then upon a consensus, based upon a tremendous limitation in knowledge, and the gov't gives huge grants, billions of dollars to keep the consensus in place. For if someone strays from the herd......no soup for you!!!! (channeling the Soup Nazi on Seinfeld)

    The entire system has been corrupted by money, grants, no different from politics, with about the same credibility.
     
  9. contrails

    contrails Active Member

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    Except as McIntyre knows, Salzer et al 2014 shows the two treeline sites in their study diverge in the late 20th century (figure 5). He also knows that the study only looked at trees in a part of northern California. Hardly a proxy for global temperatures.

    Secondly, McIntyre tries to discredit the Mann hockey stick by presenting data after 1980 when Mann-Bradley 1998 only goes up to 1950. Fortunately, we don't need temperature reconstructions to know what the global temperature trend has been over the last 60 years.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The last 60 years, cooling for 10 years then warming now now warming.for 18.
     
  11. contrails

    contrails Active Member

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    And yet global temperature today is 0.5 °C above where it was in 1950 where Mann's reconstruction ends. Looks like the hockey stick still lives.
     
  12. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Only in the minds of the truly uninformed.
     
  13. contrails

    contrails Active Member

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    Even RSS says as much, despite its cooling bias.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yep, no warming for 18+ years now. Thanks for proving that.
     
  15. contrails

    contrails Active Member

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    No, thank you for proving my point.
     
  16. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It has been determined that UAH has a warming bias and will be adjusted to look more like RSS which conforms more to good surface temperature records away from urban areas.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ice sheets and glaciers have been melting for tens of thousands of years and sea levels have risen…and will continue to rise until the start of the next ice age because we are in an interglacial where the temperature point is above the level it needs to keep glaciers stable or growing.
     
  17. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Man creates the glacial periods, and he also creates the interglacial period, with its warming. Once the warming is over, and the earth starts cycling again into a glacial period, man will have created that as well. Except by then, we will understand that regardless of humans, the earth cycles. I know, it will be hard for egos to take, given we think so highly or unhighly of ourselves, but we may as well accept it.
     
  18. Poor Debater

    Poor Debater New Member

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    If it's not warming, what's causing the sea level to rise?

    [​IMG]


    Is it magic? Does the ocean have a political agenda? Is the librul media bribing the ocean with promises of a steady job? Has the ocean succumbed to the Al Gore hoax?

    We're just waiting (and waiting ... and waiting ...) for the official explanation from Denierstan ...
     
  19. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You seem to forget that an interglacial means that the temperature rises high enough to melt glaciers. The sea level has raised since the beginning of the Holocene with a few variations like when it was higher than today during the Byzantine era and will continue to rise until the next glacial period. Right now it has slowed which the record shows. You want to stop changes from happening? Become God.
     
  20. Poor Debater

    Poor Debater New Member

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    Rising temperatures. Right. So you earlier claim about temperatures not rising is false.
     
  21. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    These hysterical global warming folks, want the temps to remain the same, and if they don't, they will blame humanity. They are stuck in this paradigm. For the earth should be warming regardless if man was here or not. And it is, or so they say.

    I think the hysterics are a human phenomena. You saw it with UFOs at one time, with 2012, and you see it with the fundamentalist Christians who are waiting for Christ to return and kill all the evil doers.
     
  22. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Temperatures are not rising, it is still warm enough, as it has been throughout the Holocene, to melt glaciers and raise sea levels. They will not go down until the next glacial period.
     
  23. Windigo

    Windigo Banned

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    I'm at a loss of your post being a deliberate lie or just ignorant. You have been involved enough to know what the issue here is. We need to know how the proxies relate to temperature to determine how reliable the proxies are. Since temperature has increased but proxies have gone down, ring growth has slowed, we can say that tree rings are not very good proxies. The hockey stick is bogus because we can have no confidence in its ability to represent past temperature.
     
  24. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  25. contrails

    contrails Active Member

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    Meanwhile, people who actually study tree rings like Briffa (2004), D'Arrigo (2007), and Wilmking (2008) show that these proxies are very accurate from the 1880's to the 1960's, and the recent divergence can be explained by anthropogenic environmental changes.
     

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