At first glance, it seems like an especially provocative question. But there may be some reason to wonder if it is in the offing. The Russian ruble is down almost 50 percent against the dollar this year. In other words, Russia is now experiencing hyperinflation. Its economy is in shambles. The situation is not too much different than it was in Germany between WWI and WWII; which, of course, gave rise to Adolf Hitler, together with his land grabs. Some people think that Putin will start a was somewhere in the world--probably in the Middle East--in order to create higher oil prices (without which, Russia simply cannot survive). Thoughts?
I agree. Russia is finished if they don't do something. However, if they act illegally, they should be met with heavy force by the UN.
I don't see the similarities. Russia is the biggest country in the world and can easily provide the entire population with pretty much all the essential resources. Whether the Ruble is worth a lot or little makes little difference to the Russian people. Hyperinflation is something else. The current situation is just a bit stupid because Europe actually for the first time in memory are on the same page and disagree with Russia helping Russians or foreign territory. I must say, they'd forget about that little rule of their's if it was them and their citizens would be militarily attacked of their borders.
Russia in my honest opinion will end up destroying Saudi Arabia. It is their last chance at keeping their status as a superpower and is the only way this country will economically survive. The US wants this to happen. They have been gearing for this for years and Russia is finally getting to the point that they are tired of being oppressed by the US and have finally come to terms.
What is your evidence that Russia can (supposedly) "provide the entire population with pretty much all the essential resources"? Russia has already warned that it will lapse into recession in 2015. A part of that is doubtless due to sanctions. But an even larger part of it is probably due to the collapse of the ruble, due to suddenly low oil prices.
And how, exactly, might that have anything to do with Russia's propensity to start a war (which could easily turn into WWIII) in order to compensate for its massive loss of income, due to low oil prices? Or is that just a piece of inflammatory rhetoric on your part, entirely free of any serious thought?
People's emotional responses online to politics and the propaganda is what can start WWIII, because that works like a chain-reaction of emotion. When you take away emotion from hierachy that hierarchy starts to weaken and no WWIII can ever happen (low emotions can't cause a war, high emotions do) Because only one reality exists (nature and survival), that is hierarchy and the people that are part of it, and their emotions that hold that artificial system together (look at North Korea), and the more emotions spread and build up, the stronger an hierarchy gets. Politics is a no-win or lose-lose process, don't put your emotion into politics, because last century was very clear what happens when people put too much emotion in politics. No wonder dictators yelled, because their yelling was emotion, and emotion was how they kept power over the population.
The value of the Ruble has not a big impact for the Russian people. A loaf of bred costs 44 Ruble and if the Ruble falls in value it may go up to 45 or 46, not more, because the loaf of bred is produced in Russia. Imports become extremely expensive, so people purchase local products more which in tern helps their economy. If the value of the Ruble falls therefore doesn't matter more the vast majority of the Russian people. It only is important for the international corporations. The Ruble is falling in value not because the Russian government is printing money on an excessive scale (=hyperinflation), but because outside of Russia the currency is traded less. If Europeans get an embargo on American products, and we no longer can purchase them, because we can't pay them in Dollars, the value of the USD will dramatically fall for us, because you can't buy anything with it. That's what happened to the Ruble. The essential resources are: Food, Water, electricity, heating, gas and oil. Other resources of greater importance for Russia which have to be imported are usually caoutchouc and technology. The Russian people suffer a bit under those sanctions as it is now harder to buy an iPhone and it suddenly became even more expensive, but the basic products you need didn't change prices much. The size and population numbers make it possible for many companies to use solely the Russian market to sell their products. Therefore the vast majority of the products you'd find in a Russian store, are produced in Russia, and their prices didn't change. If you can supply over 140 million people with anything, you're rich. And because Russia moved from communism to capitalism in the early 90s most companies are still local and didn't have time in the past 20 years to establish markets outside of Russia. Most of their exports are not technology or product-based, but resource-based. The gas and oil we consume here in Europe comes from Russia, and I would argue it is hard to find that many products traded internationally which are Russian, especially because other peoples produce Vodka and caviar as well.
Your words seem to indicate that you believe that there is simply no rational reason for Russia to start WWIII--only an "emotion[al]" reason--but if those in the Kremlin find that Russia's economy is rapidly tanking; and if they believe that the only way to revive that economy is to start a war in the Middle East, so as to increase the value of the ruble; it seems quite possible (to me, at least) that they might just consider that a rational option. Where, in your opinion, am I going wrong here?
You are certainly correct in your observation that "it is hard to find that many products traded internationally which are Russian." But your conclusion that the price of a loaf of bread will go up only marginally is suspect. Moreover, your apparent belief that "Food, Water, electricity, heating, gas and oil" are all a person really needs is a jarringly dismal view. Perhaps those represent the basics of life; but most people are not content with just the bare necessities. (And yes, that goes for those of us who do not have--or even desire--"an iPhone.") - - - Updated - - - Again, you have avoided the direct question posed in the OP, in favor of mere rhetoric. Consequently, I can only conclude that you are really not a serious person...
That's why I called "basic of life" resources "essential". I thought the word "essential" explained that fact. While not having an iPhone is an inconvenience, it doesn't create a hyperinflation or bring the Russian economy to its knees. Most countries in the world can't supply their own people with most of these things I mentioned. Britain has to import food, oil and gas. The UK has been unable to provide food for all its people since the 1600s I believe (I forgot the exact year). For them a trading embargo would be catastrophic. That's why Napoleon tried to block them from the European continent during his reign in the early 1800s. The essentials I mentioned mean that a country's economy can sustain the embargo much easier and in a stable fashion. Russia's economy is hardly falling apart as you can see here: http://www.statista.com/statistics/263772/gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-russia/ You are welcome to compare percentage wise the numbers with any western country, because I'm curious if any country in the West rebound as quickly after 2008 as Russia. I would like to point out that I don't "believe" all the things I mentioned, but that I mentioned facts, which you can easily research if you choose to do so. What I believe is though, that we're economically excluding American and European products from the Russian market. There are over 140 million Russians, who have quite a high spending capacity. With our products not getting imported Korean (usually the most brave in term of breaking into new markets), Chinese and Indian products will claim the land the longer the embargo is in place. This embargo after all is bad for us as well, not only for Russia. Russia's GDP per capita is in fact as high as some countries which are members of the EU. Her nominal GDP is in the top 10 of the world.
Unfortunately a nuclear WWIII is imminent with highly probability and not Putin wish it.USA are practically bankrupt, the debts can be never paid back.Russia has triggered process of kicking out dollar, therefore USA have only two choices: to became bankrupt and cease out to exist or to start WWIII. The True Price of Dollar is nothing, this currency is junk and valueless. http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Currently Muslims are beheading school girls, bombing and killing innocent people on every continent and in almost every country in the world. If that isn't the definition of a World War, I don't know what is. The problem is, the Muslims believe they are at war, but the leaders in the West continue to say we are dealing with workplace violence and lone wolf attacks.
meanwhile the world still loves to buy our bonds, but wouldn't even buy 10% of the bonds Russia offered.
What is "essential" to bare existence is not necessarily the same as what is essential to quality of life. An "iPhone" is hardly emblematic of the good life. I could easily afford an iPhone--if I really wanted one. But I am quite content with my basic, prepaid cell phone. It does everything I need or want; which is to say, it makes phone calls whenever I am away from home (and consequently, away from my landline phones). You may note that even your own graph shows that Russia's economy was slightly smaller in 2014 than in 2013--in other words, it actually contracted--and, as Reuters puts it, "The Russian economy stagnated in November, data published on Wednesday showed, making it even more likely that the ruble's rapid collapse so far this month will push it into recession next year": http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/17/us-russia-crisis-economy-idUSKBN0JV1XO20141217 Or, as NPR puts it: "[T]he pain is real. Russia's Economic Development Ministry said Tuesday that economic growth for 2015, which had been forecast at an anemic 1.2, has been revised downward and the economy is now expected to contract by 0.8 percent next year": http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/...-prices-push-russias-economy-toward-recession
I think you may misunderstand my entire post. While I am talking about a country's economy, it seems you choose to look at what is essential to have a nice quality of life for an individual or your option of purchasing a new phone. The reference I used of the phone was merely to make it more practical. Thankfully your NPR link addresses what I have been talking though all along. A projected recession of 0.8% for the year 2015 is hardly the reason for a countries economy to be crashing. Neither is their economy falling apart. There is no hyperinflation just because the Ruble lost value compared to the Dollar, etc etc. This article mentions the foreign capital issue I talked about and the fact that the Ruble gets weaker because of it. It also mentions that imports become really expensive. The Russian government owes only 11.07% of the countries GDP while most countries owe much more. Germany owes over 80% of its GDP, the USA are over 100% already, Japan is close to 200%. These things actually matter in order to show the resources Russia as a country still has. While the imported phone may be important to you to show whether you get all the "essential" resources you need as an individual, it is hardly important for a country as massive and rich as Russia. These sanctions are just an inconvenient reaction for the Russian government, nothing more. And they can live with them even for a few more years to come, just like the article pointed out. An expected recession of 0.8% for 2015 is not too bad considering. If they start trading with China and export all the oil and gas to their neighbor by the end of the year 2015, things might be different already. It is only a projection, which will not come true for many reasons. But because it was projected, the Russian government prepares for such an event 2015.
Can we have any confidence in any sincerity, fiscal or otherwise, if the right refuses to "prepare" for any major conflict requiring wartime social powers, if they refuse to justify wartime tax rates. It could be a recipe for failure.
The first World War came about because of totalitarian rulers who wanted to expand their country's domination, nationalism, and entangled alliances. From one perspective, nationalism was not necessarily an inherently bad thing, it was the same force that had led to the disintegration of multinational empires in Europe. So in some ways the issue was really that the political order was still in the process of changing, and the nations of europe had not found clearly established boundaries yet. Then the entangled alliances had formed to keep peace and security, but it was really comparable to the threat of mutually assured destruction, and it was just a matter of time before one conflict dragged the whole continent into war. Then industry was rapidly developing and technology was altering the balance of power. The second World War was, in many ways, a continuation of the first one. But it can also be said that growing poverty and widespread unemployment led to the second war. Even before the start of the war, internal conflicts developed within countries, it was these internal conflicts that indirectly grew into a wider conflict. So the lessons to be learned are that, sometimes conflict is simply inevitable in the face of great change in the economic and political structure. But also that small conflicts often create environments for conflict to grow and spread. If I can use an analogy, was like throwing dry wood soaked with petrol into a great pile. Once there is a spark, it quickly spreads fire.
You should read up on "hyperinflation" term. Inflation is an increase of products cost in local currency, expected to be 8% this year in contrast with usual 6%. Consequently, your whining is not based on actual facts.
You seem to be focused upon the "sanctions" as a reason for Russia's recent stagnation. And you are entirely ignoring the huge role that anemic oil prices play in the matter. (I think a barrel of oil is now worth only about $55. At that rate, Russia cannot simply sell its oil to China, in order to emerge from a huge economic hole.)
Perhaps it is really you who should do some research. Former Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin very recently predicted inflation in Russia, in 2015, to be in the 12-15 percent range: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/22/us-russia-crisis-economy-poll-idUSKBN0K01LT20141222
That is true. But I was focused on the OP remember: That causing WW3... That was the main objective I was trying to correct.
