Breakup of the EU.

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by william walker, Feb 5, 2015.

  1. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    I am very interested in geopolitics and I know rather a lot about geopolitics.

    I believe the EU will break apart within 5 years. This is because German exports are overwhelming the rest of Europe, EU regulations and the Euro currency mean no one within the EU can compete with Germany. However the issue that will cause the breakup of the EU isn't Greece, Spain, Portugal or South Italy in their depression. What will cause the breakup of the EU will be nations like Northern Italy, France, Holland nation which have been paying to bailout the Southern European nations but get none of their exported benefits Germany is getting. These nations will as their economic situation gets worse and the German economy weakens for demographic and dynamism reason be forced to break apart the EU.

    The EU breaking apart doesn't mean an end to the Euro or some kind of free trade area. It means the end of the Europe project, it means some nations will leave the free trade area and the Euro. Within 5 years UKIP will no longer matter, immigration will fall, regulation will be cut and we shall be free of the EU forever more. The only question is do we leave the EU now and get ahead of the break up or do we wait until the economic and political realities force Britain to leave the EU.
     
  2. MaxxMurxx

    MaxxMurxx New Member

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    The question "do we leave the EU" depends on who is "we".
     
  3. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    We is Britain.
     
  4. forestntrees

    forestntrees New Member Past Donor

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    EU works fine when there is money and happiness to be shared.
    But now, there are only debts and misery.
    The problem facing EU is not much difference with the Soviets or Yugoslavia. Nationalism and right wing are on the rise.

    Like what the Greek Finance minister said. Austerity is hurting a proud people. That message is spreading beyond Greek border.
    The last straw is when EU finally realise that the Greek debts will never be repaid. Not with economic deflation and a bankrupt Greece.
     
  5. CircleBird

    CircleBird Banned

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    I think Russia is currently operating on basically this same assumption. They feel they are getting ahead in the geopolitical game my that will result, but they are also helping to ensure the breakup comes about.

    A proxy war with Russia is going to crumble the economic system of the EU, and Russia is setting itself up at as the opposition to Germany in the dichotomy that will emerge as a result of the EU's collapse. Just look no further than Russia demanding war reparations from Germany to confirm this.
     
  6. Sixteen String Jack

    Sixteen String Jack New Member

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    Ukip aren't going anywhere, especially if the Labour Party, who are so opposed to giving the British people a referendum on independence from the EUSSR, wins the election in May.

    We're in the era of four-party politics in Britain now and Ukip will not rest until Britain is out of the EUSSR.
     
  7. lunecat

    lunecat Active Member

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    Breakup of the EU


    Yes please!
     
  8. J0NAH

    J0NAH Banned

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    Breaking up from eu? It wouldn't impact us at all. It would hurt the capitalists here though which can only be a good thing
     
  9. lunecat

    lunecat Active Member

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    It would benefit us in the UK.
     
  10. Sixteen String Jack

    Sixteen String Jack New Member

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    The breakup of the EU will be a good thing for all of the countries which are currently members of it, despite what the Europhile BBC's absurd new apocalyptic drama - The Great European Disaster Movie - which stars Victor Meldrew's enemy Angus Deayton, would have you believe.

    According to that, the breakup of the EU will lead to looting in Rome; fierce fighting in Vienna as the "unstoppable" march of Isis continues, with an Isis army now just outside the city; a state of emergency in France; and, somehow, Berlin airport being out of action.

    I've not watched it so I'm not too sure if there will be a plague of locusts and the murder of all first-born sons, but I'm sure it'll tell us that they will also be the catastrophes we'll all face in the event of the EU breaking up.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...reak-condemned-scaremongering-propaganda.html
     
  11. Steady Pie

    Steady Pie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hopefully it happens before this post is sent to the server.

    The EU is the worse thing to happen to Europe since Hitler.
     
  12. Fallen

    Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Maybe this is why Ukraine is so important to United states.If the EU collapses,Ukraine would Serve as a buffer to keep russia away.


    If EU were to collapse and Russia has Ukraine,..there would be nothign stopping russia from doing a complete take over. Russia might even try to partner up with germany to try to seize the who EU with lots of great promises.

    WWW 3 at this point.idia and China who is part of brics after helping russia invade would shut down the middle east.

    At this point America is isolated,by themselves and with virtually no allies.

    They are trying to avoid this. So the EU I fear will go as long as the US is willing to support it.
     
  13. Europe2050

    Europe2050 New Member

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    Hitler brought autocracy, war and millions of dead to Europe - the EU brought democracy, peace and better way of living to those who had survived the dark first half of the 20.th century.

    Although a lot of things in Eu don't work ideal (but do they in US, RF or China?) it is the best thing that could have happened to Europe after WW2.
    EU meant/enabled:
    - end of German-French enemyship,
    - end of minotity problems f.e. in Südtirol
    - end if fascism in Portugal and Spain
    - Integration of middle east european nations
    - building an economical room and currency strong enought to compare with US and China.
    - helping south- and middle east european economies to built up.
    But the EU is not a shop, where you can pic benefits without giving something back - a lesson, GB seems not to have learnt since 1973.

    But the model doesn't seem to be so bad.
    Would else the whole middle east European countries have had such a hurry in the '90s to join?
    Wouldn't Ukraine, Georgia and Moldowa join EU if they could today?
    And what about thousands of african people spending their whole money and possibly their lives to get there?

    Without EU we would still have 19th century situation in Europe with hatred, economical seperation and nationalism.
     
  14. Steady Pie

    Steady Pie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The solution of the state is always to collectivize the problem and crush decentralized political bodies: local governments, states, nations.
     
  15. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    I was within your post until you started talking about Russia and China invading the middle east. The rest of what you said is rubbish.

    However the first part about America fearing a Russian-German alliance that is correct. Also that the US wants to pin the Russians back as much as possible, this is correct. Also that if the EU breaks apart and German's have economic problem they could resort to military actions, this is correct. The key player in all this is Germany if they react badly they will cause problems. If they accept they have lost their largest market and now have to compete with the rest of Europe then things will be better. However the Russians will still have to be confronted along the buffer states and pushed back. Poland, Romania, Bulgaria will be the main parts of this.
     
  16. william walker

    william walker New Member

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    This is utter rubbish. The EU didn't exist until 1992 and the Maastricht treaty was enforced. Before then it was simply a free trade zone, with nothing political involved.

    Until then after WW2 and throughout the Cold it was the Americans and NATO which brought security, peace and economic growth to western Europe. Please give the Americans the credit and indeed the Russians for keeping the peace in Europe, rather starting WW3.

    There hasn't been any French and Germany issues because of the Americans and Russians, Germany being split. It has nothing to do the EU. Since 1992 Germany and France have had a good relationship because both were growing and both were about the same size with about the same power. Now Germany is once again in a dominate position in the relationship, the French now fear the German's as they did before WW1 and WW2, indeed the Franco-Prussian war. The difference is that now Germany already has a market to exports its goods and access to channel ports. This is obviously great for Germany, but terrible for France and now the French economy is worsening they have to make a choice will they accept the massive economic problems or will they leave the EU with the possibility that Germany will go to war to protect its market and access to channel ports. Now unlike before in the Franco-Prussian war, WW1 and WW2 the German's have issues. They have bad demographics, they have a weak military and they are losing their technological dynamism. Within the next 5 years the French will see they have nothing to fear from Germany if they break apart the EU, the German's can force them through military means to remain. So the French will leave, so will the Italians, Spanish, UK, Sweden and Poland. The EU political project will be over.

    Fascism in Spain and Portugal ended in the 1970's, nothing to do with the EU.
     
  17. Fallen

    Fallen Well-Known Member

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    How is this rubbish? How many Allies does America has in midle east? How many enemies? You will find that there are way more enemies? China and india would hove much do gain by obtaining some land. With EU collapsed, and America virtually by it self; it would be easy for them to partner up with Muslims to take over middle east.

    Not only to obtain resources and land but also to further isolate united states.because after Europe falls to russia, best believe it would mean war.

    If united statea had time to strengthen their foothold there then it would make thing more difficult.

    This is why it's benifitial for China and India to aquire middle east with the help of middle east.
     
  18. Europe2050

    Europe2050 New Member

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    The EU didn't start out of nothing in 1992. Birth of EU was in 1957 with the Roman treaties. What happened in the following 58 years was growing cooperation. But before 1992 the EG was already a political construct and a cooperation, that additonal to the 6 foundation members until now 22 states have joined freely.
    And it was indeed the wish to join this "Club" of peaceful and wealthy nations that made Portugal and Spain throwing away fascism in 1975 and Greece too. It was the clear statement of the EU not to accept quarrels with neighbors, that made the middle-eastern europe countries (f.e. Poland) not discussing pre-war borders one anouther (f.e. with Lithuania and Ukraine).
    The EU guaranted peace and common understanding in the continent, that had suffered so much from two wars.
    Indeed the US did very much for the external security, that Europe could never have done on it's own.
    To the USSR I have no credits. After having a big part on freeing the continent from Fascist Germany they inprissioned not only their quarter of Germany (what might have been o.k.) but also a lot of innocent nations who were victims of WW2 too.
     
  19. lunecat

    lunecat Active Member

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    Yes & No

    Hitler did bring death to Europe.

    The EU did NOT bring peace to the continent!

    If any credit should go to peace in Europe, it should go to the US, NATO, & the atomic bomb. The EEC & EU has brought nothing but misery, discourse & poverty to many in Europe.
     
  20. Europe2050

    Europe2050 New Member

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    Yes, the US brought Security and Peace to Europe and still does.
    But the US couldn't enforce peace and cooperation between these nations. It's the system EU that avoids comflicts between members and if they exist, solve them without war.
     
  21. clarisse150

    clarisse150 Member

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    EU can't work : there's too many countries in EU, now; too differents by the culture and wealth, even if all of them had a good economy, it will fail. When a group is to big, you can't manage it. It may have been better whith less countries, it'll be easier to get a common goal.
    No one even know if Europeans countries have to get more and more close together or if they have to stay separate... How can an Union where no one know where we have to go can walk? It's stupid.

    I also think that EU will perish; or, it will be reformed very very hardely. But as EU don't interest anyone, I don't know who will make it change, and, if someone like that appear, you will necessarly find a country, among those 28, to desagree and make EU still in this bad way...
     
  22. RealTravis

    RealTravis New Member

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    The EU won't break apart. It's far too valuable.
     
  23. A Southerner

    A Southerner New Member

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    Just wondering, what is its value?
     
  24. lunecat

    lunecat Active Member

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    No, I shall still have to disagree, the EEC / EU can not get ANY credit for peace within Europe. The EU has brought more strife than agreements. Peace between the European Countries can better be credited to Hitler, WWII, the Atomic bomb & fear of Soviet expansion, than it can be to the EU.


    Just because the EU has existed at the same time as peace has existed doesn't mean one has caused the other.

    The break-up of the EU would not lead to war in Europe. Unless more Wagner music was played in the bier cellar of Munich.
     
  25. Steady Pie

    Steady Pie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I sure (*)(*)(*)(*)ing hope so. The EU is the antithesis of both liberty and federalism.

    Preferably, sovereignty should lie with states, provinces, or cantons (or better yet, the individual!). But under absolutely no circumstances should to be centralized beyond the nation state.
     

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