Hi,I am new to the forum,I come from HongKong ,I always analysis political events and strategy taken by some nations . As,I want to broaden the poiltical understanding and eye-scoping of people who are interested in politices especailly for someone who get ineterst on China I will here to post my old analytical text.It deeply and detailly discusses the Sino-US relationship from 90s century. As it talks much or even relays on Chinese side,it may not be objective so I post it on the asia board It is a very long passage and require a lot of patient and time to gain a comprehensive understanding for my text as it is relatively informative and comprehensive.If u guys seem not be interested on my very first post or the topic u think it is irrelevant or boring or something else..just responds and replies to me.I will determine whether to post my passage or just abandon my first thread ...
At 90s,its so urgent for Chinese Primer ZhuYoungJi's reform.Before August 3, 1986,China had no such a term called bankrupt, even if the input and profit are out of proportion, also cannot go bankrupt.all the deficit and debts should be taken by the country.By giving data,the system ofcommissariat loss maixmum 2400 billion,which was just excluded the another system.But why enterprises of the public ownership could suffer such a great loss?For many reasons,as the mechanism was not flexible,resulted that they couldn't compete with the foreign and private enterprises,the management corruption,worker have no enthusiasm and sense of responisibility Also,the leaking of the production process also issued,for example,there were some grain merchants fooled the grain state-owned enterprise in the grain weight and quality.Then what is the concept of two hundred and forty billion,in 1999 ,Chinese revenue was 11444 billion,which was equivalent to 21% of the revenue,what is more,the more personnel than work available,unclear responsibilities, continued to make losses.The development of the management of state-owned enterprises couldn't keep up with the times, not only couldn't make profit for the country,but the huge deficit,even the government needed to spend taxpayers' money to subsidize them On the international perspective,at that time the USA was grappling on Russia,once it finished,the Chinese will be back trouble,1998 Asian financial storm to Hongkong,which acted with a hidden motive,if China couldn't timely reform,accumulated a certain strength,eliminated some hidden danger,the consequence will be disastrous.On the internal perspective,It was the first generation of only children started or are about to enter the University, when their parents are middle-aged, while still in the prime of life, the practice of reform, can make full use of demographic dividend of construction.Looking back, the reform of this period of time and the accession of China to the WTO had a logical relation.Whether it was housing, medical care reform, or the restructuring of state-owned enterprises, synergism or depletion of members,they were all for the accession to the WTO,the preparatory work for the competition of the another countries,put down the burden to travel forward ,for example ,The expansion of university enrollment, is to provide sufficient high-quality talent resources.Or if China slows down the pace of reform, so China's accession to the WTO, it was pushed back. But the time of labor growth is not pushed back, it doesn't wait for anyone,if so,Imagine that this generation of only child couples,they have tosupport their parents of at least 4 and their children,and so makes that the parents don not have enough accumulation,such as do not have their own housing, the lack of adequate pension, only rely on their children. How could this generation to win in the global competition Finally,the USA allowed the accession of China with other intentions.If China developed slowly or just accumulated less strength ,how the government needs to do while facing Wenchuan earthquake, Taiwan problem , South Asia crisis such complex situations.Someone may say that Bin Laden leaded the peace and developing opportunities of China for ten years,actually its just a joke,it totally treats the USA strategist silly,attacking Afghanistan and Iraq is a pincer movement, once defeated the Iran,theencirclement of China will closed up,Americans once completely in control of the Middle East oil,it just equivalent to control China's industrialization and urbanization development of energy demand, China is on the neck. Now the Chinese to the United States to attack Iran is calm, because of China's development, they have a lot of oil reserves.it can be said that their reserves to support the three to five years is not a problem.But if the USA attacks Iran,his income can support three to five years? I'm afraid not. Europe ,Russia will allow the United States to peacefully share of Iran's oil resources? Moreover China now is the largest real exports, and export products irreplaceable (because of the high quality and low price,how if the oil price raised?China can reduce the scale of construction, improve the export product price to pass out the inflation,the USA now is the economic downturn, it also can not afford the inflation. But those small countries who export processing also cannot afford the oil price raising,which will cause the bankruptcy of the enterprises and further made the industrial capacity concentrated to China.If the US at that time striked while the iron was hot,it beated Iran,it would bring a great strategic passive to China,so the prmeir Zhu was facing very much difficulties,not only internal problems,but the foreign agressioin,its no the problem of if the reform should be taken anymore,but if the reform could keep up with the social development and the evolution of the situation in the world.Reform requires not only accuracy, but also to pursuit speed, If its slow, it will pay the price of blood, or even beyond redemption.
CH2 The commissariat strategy analysis of China As the 90's of last century, China's grain harvest, storage has become a problem.Premier Zhu in response to this situation has taken two measures, one is to expand the construction of grain storage,Two is the implementation of returning farmland to forest and return grazing land to grassland,reducing the grain planting area.As China and the USA were in WTO negotiation,Americans see Chinese intend to reduce the grain planting area,they deduced that The development of urbanization and industrialization process will take up a lot of land. At the same time, this development will bring a lot of food industry demand for wheat. The wheat yield in China at that time is not enough to supply the needs of China after entering wto. For lack of demand,China had to import, while the United States is a famous manufacturer and exporter of wheat. American opportunity came.As Kissinger once said, "the master of the oil, the master of all countries; in charge of food, you have all the people; the money, have the whole world!"It implies the importance of the food problem.Based on these factors, and other factors, the United States produced a judgment: Chinese entry into the WTO is feasible, The food problem of Chinese lifeline is holding in the Americans' hands,its no way to worry that China can overcome the USA's subdue And then,Chinese entered WTO.Although the above situation appeared in China , the American expectation failed,The basic data of Chinese agriculture American is certainly know, coupled with the American satellite overhead China,its logically speaking that Americans should not make such a serious error of judgment.So why??Its the issue of the commissariat encouragement policy adopted by the 4 th generation leaders, they 1)exempted the agriclutural tax 2)established the minimum grain price purchase system and grain reserving system 3)subsidized farming,such as seed subsidy,machinery purchase subsidy I believed that the USA could deduce the measurement taken by the Chinese when doing WTO assessment as these measures are mature initiatives of many countries in the world ,and USA is an agricultural producer,it should have a similar experience.But America when evaluating similar measures, could not think of these measures in combination, will have such a huge impact on wheat production at the time of China.Generally speaking, American believes that even if the China takes similar measures.its still not enough to supply the demand of wheat after Chinese into wto. That is to say, Chinese still need a lot of American wheat imports.How the United States is wrong? Do you know the main reason for restricting the wheat yield of CHina??Mainly because of the underdeveloped productive forces, farmers don't have enough time to harvest the wheat,also form the conflict of rice planting, so farmers have seldom planted wheat.But at the beginning of this century, the government began to subsidize agricultural machinery, combine harvester began to appear in large numbers in the fields.With the combine harvester harvesting wheat,it requires less number of procedures, comparing with the artificial harvest,it saves time and labor.Because of the popularization and application of the combine harvester that led to soaring wheat planting area and total yield of Chinese.However, if the government adopted the same policy in 8-90 century,its not work ,at that time even farmers know a combine harvester, will not consider to use it.The level of social development is not the same,the farmer now will not be reluctant to spend money Because the party at the critical moment of agricultural productivity change of China, has launched a targeted initiatives, which made Chinese wheat production capacity has been improved. Why Americans put China's accession to the WTO, it judges that after China's accession to the WTO, as it seizes the lifeblood of China's food problems (of course more than that considered), its sure to subdue China.But then, after China's WTO accession, Americans expectation did not appear, it is not just earn less money such simple, the most thing important is the strategic goal of the United States did not reach.
CH3 Encirclement and counter-encirclement of the game In the early 90,the USSR monster collapsed,which brought mixed impact to China,the joy is that it greatly reduced geopolitical pressures in northern China,resluted in too much benefits.But there are also worries,as the saying goes, there are a big mountain as the sky is falling down, after the Soviet Union collapsed, the pressure of ideology then focused on China. Americans to clean up after the former Soviet Union, will spearhead the fight to the Chinese. This is obivous.98 years, originated in Southeast Asia,the financial crisis blowed up in HongKong.Fortunately, Premier Zhu's economic reform had played a success, with bare strength to withstand the economic and foreign exchange reserves. HongKong, under the support of China,hardly won the battle and stablized the situation,although it won tragically,but it also exposed China has become the most important opponent of the USA.We know what is the lifeblood of American , the dollar standard system,the USA could collect the seigniorage of other countries,and even create the economic and financial crisis to shear the country.But now American couldn't shear Hongkong . In the eyes of American, won't China be the American mortal malady? The collapse of the Soviet Union, get a huge geopolitical benefits from not only USA and Chinese, and also europeans. No rolling steel torrent of Soviet threat, Europeans felt no need for the US military protection and bearing the American economic exploitation so the euro emerged as the times require. The emergence of the euro dirctly acted on the USA's cheese,certainly not for the United States would like to see.In January 1, 1999, the euro was officially launched. And in the same year in March 24th, the US led NATO to launch air strikes on Southern Alliance, the outbreak of war in Kosovo. Kosovo war not only gave a heavy blow to the Confederacy, also to the euro. the euro falled all the way down, in May 8, 1999, NATO missile, "mistaken bombing" of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia, killing 3 Chinese journalists , causing people injured and destruction, making the event a rare world diplomatic history.The United States "mistaken bombing" ulteriorly motived, one is to let ordinary people in China think the government was weak, and then cause Strife,two is to make the arise of the Chinese millitary hardliners beacause of the humiliation to make China embark on the old Soviet style road of millitary backup,attempt to use the arms race to take down china.However,due to the appropiate respond of the Chinese leadership,it didn't lead to the hosility of the Chinese to the government ,but the great indignation of the worldwide Chinese to the USA.At the time of the America, Russia has basically no threat to the USA,also same for the beginning of the European monetary integration,the only scourge of the USA is China.Although America with superior political economic and military strength, but for China,its the dog bites with a hedgehog,nowhere to bite,Political persuasion or color revolution will not work, the 80's of the last century has already been engaged in China,it already had a lesson,The use of economic and financial offensive also didn't work,its economy was still very closed,Hongkong financial battle 98 years has shown that, in the closed condition, the external big financial crisis was also difficult to contribute the devastating effect. A military strike is not feasible, if the Chinese cornered, China once soared to initiate..the result is obivous If you are at the time of the Americans, you are responsible for strategic planning and implementation of a Chinese attack, what would you do?The United States to deal with China, with economic and financial means, because China was still closed,it was difficult to play a role.How if its open??the way yet comes.Of course, China is an independent country, only the United States can not always make it follow its lead especially a matter of economic security and national security,to make China be most willing to,the USA had to show the temptation which Chinese can not refuse What is the Chinese dreaming??There were 3 things.One is the right to host the Olympic games..Two is the accession to the WTO.Due to Accession to the WTO, Chinese can actively participate in the international economic system, to make full use of international market and resources, with their labor numerous advantages,to make up the short board of resources and capital, technology, management.Three is the host of the World Expo. the accession to the WTO to promote reform and opening up, is the established policy of china. It is to say that as soon as the right of host the United States gives to China, and China's entry into WTO opportunity, you don't chase the opening of China, China will because of their own needs and spontaneous opening.Once it opened ,the American opportunity came.However,it should be followed as far as possible in accordance with the American will, as possible to expand the scope and extent of the Chinese open field, the convenience of their own strength, permeability.We review the Chinese WTO road during the period of 1999 April, due to Premier Zhu's visit, China and the United States signed the Sino US agricultural cooperation agreement. And because of the American satisfactory American issued a joint statement on the Chinese accession to the world trade organization commitment "we firmly support the Chinese joined the World Trade Organization in 1999". When we look back on this news, any another feeling?As for the others ,like finance, economic regulation, its obivous.If the strategy is not safe. American could adopt double insurance measures. On the one hand is the use and requirements of China's opening, into the interior China, to bring down the Chinese economy from its inside.On the other hand is to control from outside of necessary resources of Chinese development ,the most important thing is oil. We know that the oil industry has been hailed as a modern blood, regardless of urbanization or industrialization requires a lot of oil. Control of China's oil imports, like controlling the water tap of Chinese development.We know that there are four major channels of Chinese oil imports now, respectively is the Burma sea channel,Central Asia channel,russia channel and the waterway channel China at that time, some channel which did not yet exist, but the United States is not difficult to predict the concrete location and direction ,its feasible to implent targeted deployment While facing the USA sugar coated bullet, by offing the icing,hit the bullet back is a very naive thinking.Have a look at the two sides of the strength contrast, Americans have comprehensive advantages, before ,China could rely on a variety of means to keep the enemy out of the country, and now , for the opening to the outside world,the USA economic and financial forces directly into your heart and did close combat.in the face of overwhelming advantage,without gimmicks,its no way for China to win.The American laid this cheese game,it really seems to be the winner ,one million people inside, there may not be a man saing that Chinese can win.Now ,we have specificly say how China to do. First, you can not rashly accept the Olympic Games ,host of the World Expo, and the WTO opportunities. Especially the accession to the WTO,,if you do not fully prepared for coming into international economic system domaining by the USA or you will like Southeast Asia, finally become an international financial looting objects , which have returned to liberation before thirty years.To prevent this from happening, the state should make full preparation in the political ,economic, military fields and so on. Not only in the field of agriculture, in other parts of the economy have to be ready. For example, the financial sector, banks, we know that when Chinese in 90 of the last century, China banking malpracticed,with extremely serious problem, and the huge non-performing assets. You can't go to meet the challenges of WTO to the banking industry,it will surely suffer .So before the WTO, the separation of policy banking and commercial banking business in the banking sector, it was stripped of bad assets of the banking industry, to strengthen the management, to inject capital to starved banks, to carry out shareholding system reform, the issuance of shares listed (reform until after the entry of WTO). One of the purpose of the reform is not only prevent to become the target of the United States but also to provide financial support for the rapid development of China's economy.There is the reform of state-owned enterprises, this is the most criticized, people are still brooding. Indeed, if the other did not abandon the old state-owned enterprises thinking,if not the implementation of synergism and depletion of numbers of laid-off workers , not to improve the competitiveness of state-owned enterprises, not to put down the burden of traveling light, how do you face the brutal competition in the WTO, and safeguard the economic security?
It's always a good idea to use the Reply With Quote function so that I'm alerted to your post. You analyze the Great Game in terms that are different than the ways I utilize to understand the situation. There are many internal economic contradictions in the economy of China. However, since the end of the Cultural Revolution China has had a series of relatively wise leaders operating within the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party. This started with the leadership of Deng Xiao Ping. The Chinese were smart enough to realize that their abundance of cheap labor could be an asset in the international trading system created by the United States and the rest of the West. China became the manufacturing center of the world. As a result a massive Chinese middle class came into existence and China became relatively wealthy. Economic power always translates into political and military power. Wealth also translated into the creating political legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party from the perspective of the Chinese people. As a result the Chinese Communist Party holds the "Mandate of Heaven" as the concept was understood in traditional Han Chinese culture. America had an opportunity to undermine the rise of China economically, politically, and militarily. But defects in the American political system prevented America from using those defects to undermine China. America didn't know China in the same way China knew America. Do you remember Sun Tzu? Know yourself and your opponent and you need not fear the outcome of a hundred battles. I'll return to continue our conversation within the next twenty four hours. I would like to discuss geopolitics.
thx for replying me,as I orignally want to abandon my thread as it seems no one cares ,the passage I psoted is not my the complete version,maybe I should add more..
CH4 The strategic deception and the EP-3 incident There is a need to reduce the threshold of China's accession to the WTO and open as much as possible. The threshold is low, the degree of openness is low, the more beneficial to China's future.To become a favorable one, it must be hidden strength, adopted strategic deception. So the largest unprecendented strategic deception of the history started.Why do you say, first of all because in the past,it maybe feasible for a few or more people be cheated and now China adopted deception throughout the US-led Western elites and ruling groups. The second you hide is not a small thing, but a monster, it has more than one billion people, 9.6 million square kilometers of land, complete industrial system and an independent military force. Just such a monster volume to make people feel not horrible, you're going to make it look like to make the West believe theycan easily win the battle, how difficult it would be. The third is that it is a long time, from those changes, Deng set "keeping a low profile ," and after it started,and lasted more than a decade.Strategic deception was not getting a few more people such as Gordon Chang to write several books like "The Coming Collapse of China" it toatally treats the Western elites as idiots . US-led Western intelligence has not only the data collection system, as well as a huge think tank. You have to make them believe that China can't withstand a single blow In the 90's of last century, the reform of China's state-owned enterprises led to tens of millions of laid-off workers, farmers really hard, really poor rural areas, agriculture is dangerous "also occurred during this period , a huge amount of non-performing assets of the banking industry, management is chaotic. In a word the economy is difficult to see bright colors, basically the whole society is worried: if China's accession to the WTO will be defeated by foreign enterprise,The 93 years of Yinhe incident, the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 96 years, 99 years of the Yugoslav embassy incident, in 2001, the South China Sea collision, let Chinese people feel too timid to the government,I shouldsay that the above mentioned event were not deliberately created by China, but it should say that China's subsequent treatment was too soft.There were something exciting,but they are intended to be kept secret in china. For example, known as the aircraft J10 first flew in 1998, but this decryption is a matter of a few years.For China, whether intentionally or not, the US-led western elites have misjudged the strength of china. We simply assume that if God give Americans the opportunity once again,will the USA planned such a layout??The answer is impossible. Even if the Americans agreed to do so, it will put forward high threshold, greatly increased the difficulty of Chinese win. November 11, 1999 to 15, tough negotiations in Beijing between the Chinese delegation and the delegation of the United States was held.As it became stalled, Premier Zhu personally to resolve their differences and reach an agreement, the negotiations between the United States came to an end.Since then, China with the EU and other WTO members reached agreements In September 17, 2001, the eighteenth meeting of the working group of China's WTO Accession Protocol passed the attachment and China working group report , marking China's accession to the WTO negotiations are over.In November 11, 2001, Qatar, Doha, Chinese signed the protocol of accession to the world trade organization. After a month, China officially became a member of the world trade organization. April 7, 1999, approved by the Chinese Olympic Committee, Beijing formally submit their applications to the International Olympic Committee. July 13, 2001, Beijing won the right to host the 29th Olympic Games. December 1999, at the International Exhibition Bureau 126th plenary meeting, the Chinese government officially announced bid for 2010 World Expo. December 3, 2002, by the International Exhibitions Bureau of the General Assembly vote, China won the right to host the 2010 World Expo. Judging from the time point, the Sino-US Great Game layout was planned by the Chinese 3rd generation,the layout is not only reflected in the domestic aspect,but aslo performed in abroad The last century 90's, Chinese didn't maltreat Russia ,it decided to unite with Russia. on the basis of the beginning of such relationship,they successfully establish the countries'border,also with the former Soviet Central Asian republices ,they established the SCO,it stabilized the situation in North and northwest china.There maybe some people be familiar with the international politices will doubt: in 1986 China began to GATT, the WTO negotiations, and in 1991 Chinese decided to bid for the 2000 Olympic Games,Could it be that China was already so early to begin the Sino-US game layout ?Good question!game, is among the decision-making behavior interaction, each subject according to the cognition of their capability and information, to make a favorable decision.Internal reform, opening to the outside world, is an established policy China, GATT or WTO and the hosting of the Olympic Games , other international event is an open way. However, the beginning of Americans do not give you the opportunity, that is to say they didn't play the game with you. So China's entry into the WTO Road, spent fifteen years of time, even the first bid for the right to host the 2000 Olympic Games didn't succeed.Later, with the evolution of the situation, the Americans changed his mind. We have a look on schedule, in 2001 Chinese not only joined the WTO, and won the right to host the 2008 Olympic games. If we carefully recall, in 2001 there was a shock: 911 event in US,If we look forward to in 2001, the Olympic Games is held in 2008, but in 2008 will be another event which affecting Chinese neural,Taiwan leader election and inauguration. To know that the pro independence Democratic Progressive Party had been in power in Taiwan,then what will happen in 2008,I believe every Chinese can feel the risk.First, in 2001,it is no way for not to mention the EP-3 incident: in April 1, 2001, a America Navy EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft excuted mission over the sea in China near Hainan Island, Chinese naval air force sent 2 F-8 fighter II monitor and intercept,a wingman in southeast of Hainan Island Chinese 70 nautical miles (110 km the China) over the exclusive economic zone collided with the US plane,Chinese fighter crashed,pilot Wang Wei wasn't found,after being Chinese confirmed dead, USA plane was landing in Hainan Island Lingshui airport.Although the EP-3 incident had seriously affected the Sino US relations, but it should be an emergency, no conspiracy theory to talk But the collision event enhanced the determination of Americans to solve problems through non traditional way asthe method above mentioning Why do I say. We look at the time of processing. In the April 1 collision incident occurred, April 3, China allowing US diplomats and the crew conducted the first meeting. April 11, China accepted the US letter of apology. The next day ie April 12, 24 crews were allowed to leave the country. April 29 China has decided to send the United States the US EP-3 reconnaissance plane. July 3, the US military has been dismantling EP-3 reconnaissance plane "landing" Russian transport plane leaving for the United States.It is evident from the above that the crews were concerned about the security problems by ordinary Americans, China would soon resolve it and put them back. The equipment is dragged on for nearly a month the aircraft was shipped back after 3months, even ghosts do not believe Chinese was not on the plane. The coming opportunity Chinese can not miss.Such treatment made American can't catch any handle Although the Chinese lost face, but they actually benefited,Americans are flying planes into the sky near China,led the Chinese pilot sacrifice, then,American crews were safely back,the aircraft was also be returned from China , how can American be told to agree that USA confronting with China,China have done so far,Want to use military means to deal with the China??Its not the way.The saying "preserve yourself while facing strong enemy"In the American comprehensive influence, Chinese which can successfully preserve the mainland was already good enough,without the corner of the interest,Take the Diaoyu Islands and the south China sea conflicts as examples,which were the shooting range of the US millitary force,At that time,in addition to Chinese protest, any substantial counter action?No!except disregard and ignorance of China That is to say in 2001 or before, whether it is the South China Sea collision event such emergencies, or the United States intends to "mistaken" Chinese embassy, China will not change policy direction of "keeping a low profile". Under the overall strength of Americans, Chinese apart from converging edge, hiding strength, had no another ways. So the South China Sea and its subsequent processing further strengthen the determination of Americans through unconventional ways to solve China's problems. From this perspective, it is the foreshadow of the 911 events. In June 15th the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" summit meeting held in Shanghai. We know that in September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. New York World Trade Center, the Pentagon location - the Pentagon has been hijacked by terrorists crashing planes Boeing 757,767, resulting in the twin towers collapsed, killing more than 3,000 people dead and missing. "9.11" by the US government called its second time in history, "Pearl Harbor." September 17, after that, "9.11" for six days, the 18th meeting of the WTO Working Party on China passed the China Accession Protocol and accessories, and China Working Group Report, China's WTO accession negotiations marks all over. In November 11, 2001, Qatar, Doha, Chinese signed the protocol of accession to the world trade organization. After a month, China officially became a member of the world trade organization.
OK..I finally know that I was just wasting so much time to do such a meaningless thing of posting a analytical passage while just get the ignorance with the others,it shows that almost no one really cares about my topic,what the hell am I doing for paying such effort and attention to do so???maybe its more sutibale for abandoning and quit the forum without visiting anymore
If China continues to create prosperity for the Chinese people, does not frighten its neighbors through impetuous statements or actions, and builds its military, it has a very real possibility of becoming the dominant power in the first half of this century. There are so many beautiful aspects of Chinese culture that if shared with the world could be inspirational. But there is a risk that the Chinese could be filled with hubris and vanity at their success. If this were to happen the possibilities for the Chinese would be cut short. The Chinese should not gloat at their success, but should assume humility with quiet confidence. I wish the Chinese well, but fear that they will make the same mistakes other great powers have made. America will not pose a serious threat to China because the Americans are divided and coming apart as a people. America's struggles are internal and will remain so for a very long time. China should look at America as an example of what not to do. The only real threat to China in my opinion is nuclear proliferation. I don't think the Chinese Communist Party realizes that there may very well be a day coming when all of its neighbors acquire nuclear weapons. China can postpone that day by having the wisdom to be non-threatening to its neighbors. Western civilization is crumbling through self doubt and a lack of confidence. Russia will suffer demographic decline. So will Japan. But new threats will emerge for China from external sources. Primitive religious zeal coupled with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles may be the greatest threat China faces even though the Chinese don't realize it at this point in time.
I am also from HK, welcome So, are you suggest that the econ of China will go downward? China remained a rather good relationship with USA at late 70s to 80s 1998, Hong Kong bared a serious economic shock for China. China were still not open at that time. and WTO....drove China went to the track of bubble economy. China now is holding an extremely fragile Giant size bubble. now it is using the crazy stock market to support this bubble, and try to use AIIB, new silk road project to make a chance to turn around. China probably can't make it. i do hope so, and when that day comes, we may see the most huge economic down fall in human history.
Nice place. That depends on many factors including the choices made by the Chinese Communist Party. The CCP is just another dynasty. If it makes wise choices the mandate of heaven will be prolonged; but, someday the CCP will lose the mandate of heaven because all things come to an end. China and America had a good relationship when they had a common enemy...the Soviet Union. That relationship continued until June 1989 when the CCP crushed the Tiananmen Square demonstration. Today China and America are major trading partners and geopolitical opponents. There are major distortions in the Chinese economy. But China has an authoritarian political system which will use disinformation and force to maintain the existence of the system. China will survive because of the strength of Han culture and the Chinese people. What will come to an end is the power of the Chinese Communist Party.
China has committed an act of war against the United States and the American people. It has hacked the Office of Personnel Management and stolen all of the data on more than four million current and former govt. employees. This includes the applications for security clearances, and the actual security clearances, for all military and intelligence personnel. This basically means China has a level of insight into American personnel, ways and means that it reduces all American intelligence activities to oversight by the Chinese govt. China will use this information to shut down American intelligence operations, arrest America's spies in China, to blackmail US personnel, and to recruit Americans to spy for China. This is nothing short of an act of war against the United States. But Obama will do nothing.
Elaborate. War is what Obama is tiptoeing towards with his naval and air confrontations with the Chinese in the South China Sea. My post didn't suggest war explicitly or by implication. However, the post does indicate China's contempt for the Obama administration. What do you think Obama should do now that the hacks have been discovered?
China is a civilization held together by unifying principles of race and culture. Chinese culture is so attractive and powerful that even the Yue peoples conquered by the Han have come to think of themselves as Han. China is also a shape shifting polity, at times an empire, and at other times pretending to be a mere nation. America no longer has a unifying principle. Formerly this country was unified by culture and creed as observed by Samuel Huntington. But culture and creed are no longer assimilated by multicultural paternalistas. Without unifying principles the residents of America are merely mutually hostile tribes occupying the same place at the same time. Sort of like the Tamils and Sinhalese of Sri Lanka. America lacks the staying power to remain the hegemon of the Western Pacific. In fact, why should America care about the Western Pacific when the US lacks a southern border? The nations of East Asia and the Western Pacific will either bandwagon with China or they will acquire nuclear weapons. In either event our fight is at home, not on the other side of the planet.
I disagree with pretty much everything in your post. By 2050, India will have surpassed China in all regards and is the lynch key in our far east sphere of influence. China's civilization has been held together by collective poverty. As the per capita income passes through the global $10K mark, China will increasingly be unable to suppress populist demands for freedom and participation by the masses in the halls of power domestically while international pressures on its currency manipulations work against the them abroad. America has never been held together by a uniform culture, private property ownership has held America together in spite of all else. China is about to have its global training wheels removed.
no need for long winded "Analyses" .. the only fact that matters is the Hawks in Washington D.C. would like nothing better than to see China split up into dozens of separate nations, much Europe today, much like what happened to the former Soviet Union. The world has no need for American style "democracy". A two party system that elects people based on how much money they can front is no democracy at all. American political and business leaders have no interest in up lifting the rest of the world. They interested in keeping the rest of the world in poverty so that American corporations can have ample supply of cheap labor.
