IDF v Hezbollah: The Rematch Summer 2015?

Discussion in 'Middle East' started by georgephillip, May 31, 2015.

  1. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In addition to the Syrian killing fields stoking the embers of 2006, it's being suggested in some places Israel will launch another incursion into Lebanon this summer as a way of derailing the US-Iran nuclear agreement; both antagonists have learned the appropriate lessons since their last round, and each has the potential to inflict misery on the other in new ways and dimensions.

    "Hezbollah's strategic situation has also changed following its commitment of significant forces to Syria, with an estimated 5,000 personnel serving there at any one time. On the one hand, this situation may dilute Hezbollah's interest in serious conflict with Israel, since it limits the number of forces the group could bring to bear.

    "On the other hand, Hezbollah does not appear to have committed the kinds of forces (rocket/missile and antitank) that would be most useful against Israel, and it has gained operational experience in Syria that could make it more effective in a ground war. Moreover, the group could attempt to exploit its new situation by operating through Syrian territory on Israel's Golan front.

    "The Israel Defense forces have improved their capabilities dramatically since 2006 as well, including enhanced intelligence and strike firepower (air and artillery) that increase their ability to locate and hit targets.

    "They have also enhanced their ground maneuver capabilities by deploying more advanced and capable tanks and armored personnel carriers (the Merkava IV and Namer, respectively) and equipping key armored units with the Trophy self-protection system, which can intercept antitank munitions.

    "Since 2006, IDF ground training has emphasized operations against Hezbollah, though it is unclear how much of this has been done for reserve units."

    http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/a-war-like-no-other-israel-vs.-hezbollah-in-2015
     
  2. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    Why don't they just leave Lebanon alone?
     
  3. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There's a theory Lebanon was slated for the same fate in 2006 as Iraq suffered in 2003. Hezbollah threw up a speed bump to that particular part of the New Middle East but it's back in play in Syria.
    http://www.denverpost.com/nationworld/ci_4180464
    "Washington - President Bush said Monday that Hezbollah guerillas suffered a defeat at the hands of Israel in their monthlong Mideast war.

    "There's going to be a new power in the south of Lebanon," Bush said.

    "The president also said the war was part of a broader struggle between freedom and terror and "we can only imagine how much more dangerous this conflict would be if Iran had the nuclear weapon it seeks." Bush said Iran and Syria were the primary sponsors of Hezbollah guerrillas who captured two Israeli soldiers, igniting the battle with Israel. More than 900 people were killed in the fighting, and there was massive destruction in southern Lebanon."

    Maybe Wesley Clark said it all in March 2003?

    "In Clark's book, Winning Modern Wars, published in 2003, he describes his conversation with a military officer in the Pentagon shortly after 9/11 regarding a plan to attack seven Middle Eastern countries in five years: "As I went back through the Pentagon in November 2001, one of the senior military staff officers had time for a chat. Yes, we were still on track for going against Iraq, he said. But there was more. This was being discussed as part of a five-year campaign plan, he said, and there were a total of seven countries, beginning with Iraq, then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and finishing off Iran." [146"
     
  4. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    Clark is a grandstanding ass IMO..

    Hezbollah did keep Israel from taking the rivers of Lebanon, but I think if they would chill out.... Israel could be forced into some sort of reconciliation and stop their flying into Lebanese airspace.
     
  5. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Clark is a grandstanding ass who probably hasn't completely given up on becoming president. I think the current plans for the New Middle East began with the US invasion/occupation/destruction of Iraq to be quickly followed by Israeli occupation of Lebanon up to the Litani river. It may be only coincidence, but there is an Israeli plan from the mid-80s that seems to predict the terror the US has unleashed across the Middle East since 2003.

    "22
    The Western front, which on the surface appears more problematic, is in fact less complicated than the
    Eastern front, in which most of the events that make the headlines have been taking place recently.

    "Lebanon's total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precendent for the entire Arab world
    including Egypt, Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is already following that track. The
    dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unqiue areas such as in Lebanon, is
    Israel's primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power
    of those states serves as the primary short term target.

    "Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a
    Shi'ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus
    hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and
    certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan.

    "This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and
    security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today."

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/pdf/The%20Zionist%20Plan%20for%20the%20Middle%20East.pdf
     
  6. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    Yep... the Israelis have always had grandiose dreams of taking parts of Egypt, Lebanon and Syria........ goes back to the first Zionist Congress in Basil , Suisse circa 1900.
     
  7. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    I say if a guy named "Israel" wrote it - it has to be true.

    Protocoles from the leaders of Zionism about vast domination..........sounds familier to me........, where do I sign for peace with such lovely ppl like you ??? I want to hug you and ppl that spread such "truth" as brothers !!!
     
  8. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    What about Jordan ??

    We handle 5 million Arabs so well we just have to increase that number to 50 million Arabs. lovely ppl not capable of lying or harming anyone.
     
  9. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Oded Yinon was apparently a relatively minor cog in the Zionist occupation machine in 1982 when he published his solution to Israel's "Arab Problem"

    "Profile: Oded Yinon
    Oded Yinon was a participant or observer in the following events:

    "February 1982: Article in Israeli Journal Says Israel Should Exploit Internal Tensions of Arab StatesEdit event
    The winter issue of Kivunim, a 'A Journal for Judaism and Zionism,' publishes 'A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties' by Oded Yinon.

    "The paper, published in Hebrew, rejects the idea that Israel should carry through with the Camp David accords and seek peace.

    "Instead, Yinon suggests that the Arab States should be destroyed from within by exploiting their internal religious and ethnic tensions: 'Lebanon’s total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precedent for the entire Arab world including Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and the Arabian peninsula and is already following that track. The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unique areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel’s primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon.' [KIVUNIM, 2/1982]"

    http://www.historycommons.org/entity.jsp?entity=oded_yinon
     
  10. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "The Zionist Plan for
    the Middle East
    Translated and edited by
    Israel Shahak
    "

    Oded Yinon wrote "The Zionist Plan for the Middle East" and Israel Shahak translated the Plan into English.
    Which Jew is your brother?
     
  11. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    Well Chaim Weizmann was furious when Transjordan was created....... Read the contemporaneous writings.. and by 1950 he was approaching Ibn Saud, the US and ARAMCO to take in the rest of the Palestinians... He wanted the US to fund the forcible transfer.....

    Try reading some news articles and essays written from 1945 thru 1952..........
     
  12. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    This one is from Col Peters.

    [​IMG]

    Yinon was with the Israeli Foreign Ministry. Here's his plan.

    [​IMG]

    Crazy and arrogant.
     
  13. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yinon is also difficult to track down if you don't read Hebrew. There are sites available that provide biographical details on him; however, when I typed his name in English into one search box, the results came back in Hebrew. US neocons like Colonel Ralph have certainly picked-up on Yinon's plan, but they seem reluctant to mention its author by name. Obviously, the fall of the USSR gave the Yinon Plan a new lease of life for those who get rich from the mass murder, maiming, and displacement of millions of civilians.
     
  14. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Both are ofc,
    Oded Yinon had no part of Israeli Gov and certainly not a decision maker, ppl write all kinds of stuff, I dont blame him I blame the likes of you that publish it as some kind of offical Gov plan.
     
  15. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Before there was a Jordan, yes the UK suggested part of it for the future Jewish state and that was way before 1945, the Peel commission suggested pop transfer of both Arabs and Jews to create seperate Jewish and Arab states - please dont LIE to say it was a Jewish suggestion

    Of course the Arab suggestion was a forcful transfer of the Jews to the sea - so spare me the fake tolerance my dear.

    Weizmann suggested a transfer of the Arabs to Jordan - which would have been the best solution and you will witness the day that Jordan will give some of its land to the Palestinians which will prove again he was right.
     
  16. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    He is just a reporter for (*)(*)(*)(*) sake........a reporter than wrote a book.

    My question stands, how exactly will Israel control 50 million more hostile Arabs ? I'm asking you because you seem taken by this "plan" so you should also have an answer if it makes sense to you.
     
  17. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I never claimed Yinon's document was any official government plan; at the time it was published, the Soviet Union would have prevented its implementation. Much has changed since 1982, and it's difficult to look at what is happening in Iraq and Syria today without seeing the resemblance to what Oded Yinon envisioned as Israel's salvation thirty-plus years ago.
     
  18. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If the New Middle East comes into existence, warring sub-state factions from Lebanon to Iraq will be controlled by Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, possibly assisted by a "Free" Kurdistan garrisoned with NATO troops. The resulting chaos apparently makes dollars and sense for those getting rich from the Long War. It sounds like another huge mistake in the Middle East to me.
     
  19. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    Yinon was with the Israeli foreign ministry, wasn't he?

    Have you forgotten that Bibi and Chalabi were crowing to the press BEFORE Bush's attack on Iraq that they would be getting a pipeline from Kirkuk to Haifa?
     
  20. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "The Association of Arab-American University Graduates finds it compelling to inaugurate its new publication series, Special Documents, with Oded Yinon’s article which appeared in Kivunim (Directions), the journal of the Department of Information of the World Zionist Organization. Oded Yinon is an Israeli journalist and was formerly attached to the Foreign Ministry of Israel. To our knowledge, this document is the most explicit, detailed and unambiguous statement to date of the Zionist strategy in the Middle East. Furthermore, it stands as an accurate representation of the 'vision' for the entire Middle East of the presently ruling Zionist regime of Begin, Sharon and Eitan. Its importance, hence, lies not in its historical value but in the nightmare which it presents."
    Maybe we can all agree on the nightmare part?
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/greater-israel-the-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east/5324815
     
  21. Phoebe Bump

    Phoebe Bump New Member

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    l've heard all the way to the Euphrates, if the rabbis are to be believed.
     
  22. georgephillip

    georgephillip Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE 2006?

    "Over the past few years, Israel and Hezbollah have both worked to improve their capabilities for the kind of war they expect to fight. And Syria's civil war has changed the strategic landscape greatly.

    "For its part, Hezbollah has massively expanded the size and range of its rocket and missile inventory. In 2006, it went to war with some 13,000 short- and medium-range rockets, allowing it to strike targets throughout northern Israel. Today it could have over 100,000 rockets and missiles, including a number of long-range systems as well as systems with improved accuracy, allowing it to strike throughout Israel and with increased precision..."

    "The Israel Defense forces have improved their capabilities dramatically since 2006 as well, including enhanced intelligence and strike firepower (air and artillery) that increase their ability to locate and hit targets. They have also enhanced their ground maneuver capabilities by deploying more advanced and capable tanks and armored personnel carriers (the Merkava IV and Namer, respectively) and equipping key armored units with the Trophy self-protection system, which can intercept antitank munitions. Since 2006, IDF ground training has emphasized operations against Hezbollah, though it is unclear how much of this has been done for reserve units.

    "Israel's ability to defend against Hezbollah's short-to-medium-range rocket threat has also been enhanced through deployment of the Iron Dome system, which did not exist in 2006. And its civil defense system has been upgraded and tested in recent conflicts with Hamas."

    According to Israeli intelligence, Hezbollah could fire about 1000 rockets/ day now as compared with the 2006 daily rate of 118; additionally, Hezbollah now has the tools to strike large strategic target like Ben-Gurion airport, for example. On the other side, the IDF would likely carry out a pair of major offensive operations: an air campaign to knockout Hezbollah's rockets and missiles throughout Lebanon, and a deep ground operation with multiple divisions attacking Hezbollah's ground and rocket forces in southern Lebanon.

    http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/a-war-like-no-other-israel-vs.-hezbollah-in-2015
     
  23. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps a few experts out there understand the delicate threads these countries are sewed together, once the dictator is gone old hatred will surface, you can blame the enemies of those dictators but the truth is, if that society is so fragile than it better not have been forcefully unified in the first place. I mean you want to dismantle Israel which is much more unified, why not those countries that are clearly not a real unified ppl ? assuming Jews = Arabs that is.
     
  24. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    Please try to describe such a reality to me - I simply can't envision it, how exactly will Israel "control" Lebanon or Iraq (?)
     
  25. Gilos

    Gilos Well-Known Member

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    lol, yes, part of his career was in Hasbara :) my father is a driver at some Hospital, he works for the Israeli Health ministry, want to read his works ?

    I forgotten how we can make America do whatever we want - except for things we really need, like, I dunno, maybe instead of going to war on the other side of the planet - why not send those marines to Gaza ? or Lebanon? y'know 3000 Km closer to Israel ? or how about declaring Jerusalem is the accepted Capital of Israel, I'm sure both these options would mean a hell of a lot more to Israel and will be much easier than going to war with Iraq. or do you need some Israeli to write it first to make sense to you ?
     

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