Today I read an interesting article in al-monitor called will Herzog join Netanyahu's government? According to this article Netanyahu offered Isacc Herzog leader of Zionist Union(Labor party and Hatuanu) a package of promises to get Labor to join the government. The package surprised me as it's described as according to this information, "Netanyahu agreed to give Herzog an impressive bundle of ministerial portfolios, including the foreign, justice and defense ministries. The agreement stated that the Zionist Camp would fill the posts in another year and a half, after the current government completes half a term. The transfer of the Defense Ministry at the midway point of the current term was supposed to be explicitly written into the agreement between the two parties so Netanyahu could not renege on his promises, as he is prone to do. The Justice Ministry would go to Shelly Yachimovich, the most powerful woman in the Zionist Camp, while the Foreign Ministry would be handed to Livni. Herzog would head the Defense Ministry. Diplomatic negotiations with the Palestinians would be renewed under Herzog and Livni, with Netanyahu making a commitment to enter into real negotiations, without any guile or games. This would allow for convening a broad regional peace conference, including representatives of the major Sunni states, with which Israel maintains a “quiet alliance” against the common Iranian threat." http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/ori...rzog-elections-new-year-victory-surprise.html The article says that agreement wasn't signed since Herzog faces primaries(it's expected Herzog will try to have primaries next month) soon as a result would have no assurance Labor would stay in government. If Netanyahu is sincere about genuine negotiations with Palestinians than this offer should be considered, Both Herzog and Livni are trusted among PA officials. Understandably if an offer like this was accepted Abbas would still be reluctant to go back to the negotiating table. As Abbas was frustrated with last year's negotiations with Bibi; an antonymous American official which some believe to be Martin Indyk(who was involved during Oslo and camp david talks) blamed the settlements as the biggest issue. In the end Abbas broke off negotiations after Bibi refused these demands "Outlining the borders would be the first topic under discussion. It would be agreed upon within three months. A timeframe would be set for the evacuation of Israelis from sovereign Palestinian territories (Israel had agreed to complete the evacuation of Sinai within three years). Israel will agree to have East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine." (Abbas and Olmert previously agreed on most borders during 2008 talks which included all of settlement blocs except Ariel with agreed upon land swaps to composite, all Israeli neighborhoods in East Jerusalem staying with Israel except Har Homa and the Arab neighborhoods(Olmert wanted to include Arab neighborhood of Silwan and al-tur as part of holy basin with Abbas opposing) of East Jerusalem forming East Jerusalem as capital of Palestinian state, both sides also admit they were months away from a deal). http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/magazine/13Israel-t.html?_r=0 http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4515821,00.html http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-envoy-to-resign-after-blaming-settlements-for-talks-failure/ One potential problem if this deal was agreed upon is that Jewish Home most right wing party in knesset could still be a problem. As mentioned above, the major problem during last year's negotiations was the settlements with Uri Ariel of Jewish home party then ministry of construction sabotaging talks. However the deal does remove Ayalet Shaked(supporter of far right legislation to restrict Supreme Court and NGO) from minister of justice. The minister of construction which does deal with settlements also isn't in Jewish home; it's Yoav Galant who is a member of the more moderate Kulanu party. If after primaries Herzog stays as Labor head and he reached the government under this deal or if Herzog's successor receives a similar a deal and takes it Jewish home would probably leave the gov if Bibi is sincere about restarting sincere negotiations with Livni and Herzog(or successor) in charge of negotiations. This would leave Netanyahu with 64 majority government if Kulanu also doesn't leave. Kulanu is founded by Moshe Kahlon from Likud and is portraying Kulanu as old Likud back in Begin's days when he made peace with Egypt and wasn't against civil liberties as much(until Bibi's 2009 government Likud usually had a better civil rights record than Labor at least in Israel within green lines). If Kulunu did leave this would leave Bibi with a minority of 54 seats, however Yesh Atud with 11 seats could then join the government to prevent it from falling and giving it majority of 65 seats. This assumes the religious parties which include Shas and UTJ in the gov would join Jewish Home in leaving. Shas is less certain since they have been historically less hawkish with some of their members supporting geneva accord and was part of Rabin's 1992 gov, Barak's 1999 gov, and Olmert's gov. I have not liked Bibi as he has not proven to be a good leader rarely if ever making hard choices with many Israelis both left and right have said this. If this offer is genuine with Bibi actually offering to commit to genuine negotiations including a regional peace conference and Herzog(or successor) take this offer, I would have more respect for Bibi, again if offer is genuine. I don't want it to be a repeat of when Kadima under Shaul Mofaz briefly joined gov on the issue of haredi army enlistment(if I remember deal correctly it also did call for negotiations with Palestinians, however haredi army enlistment issue was the main reason they joined) and then leave shortly afterwards due to Bibi reigning on issue of haredi army enlistment. The lack of any movement to solve the conflict with the Palestinians and to end the occupation combined with increased tensions in the West Bank means that a risk of an intifada is very high. If this deal could stop that, it should be considered, if genuine offer, this is probably the most I have seen of Bibi as a leader.
