So during the regional elections in France which is a run off election (multiple candidates run in the first round, top two go on to the next round to face off (unless a candidate scores a clear majority in the first round), the National Front which shares many values with Trump came out in front in 6 of the 12 regions of France. This was absolutley historic and unprecedented. In the second round however, the NF lost ALL of it's run off races, and had 0 regions to show for it's name when all was said and done. Now this is a very tentative analogy, as this result was due mostly to a lot of horse trading (various parties dropping out to endorse the more traditional Socialist and Republicain parties) but it did get me to wondering if there might not be something similar happening here. Passionate electors might get Trump in the first round (primaries), they certainly will vote for him in the second round, and many more republicans will come on board for the presidential race, but will there be a big traditional republican bloc that would normally vote for whoever was nominated as their standard bearer who might stay home? (obviously not switch parties, but just not vote). I know that most of the dem candidates that my party has put up were not necessarily my first choices, but I always ended up voting for whoever "we" selected. However, I am not sure that I would vote if my party had put up a candidate I saw as totally flawed (say John Edwards) against a "reasonabl" opponent (say Mitt Romney). Will all republican moderates hold their noses and vote Trump, or will many stay home. Perhaps Hillary does not qualify as a "reasonable" opponent to these same moderate republicans, pushing them to go ahead and pull the lever for Trump. Any thoughts? cheers
I could be wrong, but I think if it turns out to be a Clinton vs. Trump Election, Hillary will win by a landslide.
thats kind of what i expect to happen - i think for now, hes going to do well, he might even with the primary, not sure - but i think ultimately, when the sleepy casual voters show up, i think his dirt will start coming out and he wont be able to keep it up - right now, i think hes got passionate base that is really mad at the direction the country is going in that he is getting excited, but i expect it to subside - the betting odds having hillary at even money at trump as a large underdog make sense to me
That is absurd, at best it will be a close election and she edges him out. Landslide? In this electoral map?
