"Brxit" - Will Britain's citizens decide to leave the EU in June?

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by mihapiha, Feb 20, 2016.

  1. mihapiha

    mihapiha Active Member

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    Hello everyone.

    A thing I considered inevitable finally happened with Cameron announcing a referendum to let British citizens decide whether they wish to leave the EU. Consequences for both the EU and Britain economically and geopolitically are obviously bad, a thing most likely beneficial to Russia.

    The British people were never sold on the idea of the EU, having avoided Schengen Area, Euro, and pretty much everything else which would unite former rivals from centuries ago, into a peaceful unity on the world stage. Brits are paying per capita less into the EU than most other western countries, but were also the most vocal with complains, and at the same time unwilling to propose legislation. Britain's government has been disappointing at best in its representation in Brussels.

    Discuss the "Brexit" as you may in this topic. Wether you wish to discuss if the people will approve of the "secession" or not, or whether the consequences are good or bad for either side. However personally, I would think that the attitude is a result of primarily English living on Islands without being forced to negotiate with other peoples who could meaningfully oppose them. Continental Europeans went through enough wars and conflicts and are more willing to negotiate some treaty beneficial to all sides however compromising on both sides as well.

    In the long run I believe that the UK will leave the EU and that especially the EU will be a big winner, because they will finally be able to unite the countries properly and hopefully create a EU modeled much on the US. France and Germany being the two big boys in town left, will face little opposition without the UK in moving projects along.

    Living in three countries, I'm, needless to say, an avid supporter of a EU government and the whole concept moving along. The British government as well as the people have been disappointing at best when it came to any EU issue and tended to work in a way which would resemble the "splendid isolation" from the 19th century. I think neither politicians nor people wish to realize that in the 21th century the geopolitical enemies of the UK are no longer France and Germany, but the US, Russia, India and China.
     
    Gaius_Marius likes this.
  2. reallybigjohnson

    reallybigjohnson Banned

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    The EU is done for. The second they allowed third rate countries like Greece into the mix they doomed themselves to failure. If they had just stuck with the hard working, industrious northern European countries and left out the lazy asshats in Spain, Greece, Italy and so on it might have worked but since they included them it was train wreck waiting to happen. Britain is better of to cut their losses and get out before it really goes to (*)(*)(*)(*). Germany needs to stop giving out loans to these losers as well. Let them sink on their own.
     
  3. Sixteen String Jack

    Sixteen String Jack New Member

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    I'm not too bothered if we OUTers don't win the referendum on 23rd June (just 122 days from now). Because, even if the British people vote to remain, it's only merely delaying a Brexit, not stopping one entirely.

    This is because a vote to remain would be dangerous for Britain. Should the British people vote to remain in the EU on 23rd June, the EU will come down heavily on Britain. The EU will punish Britain for having the audacity to let her people decide democratically whether or not she should remain in the EU. It will be like the headmaster caning a naughty schoolchild. Therefore, this will inevitably result in increased euroscepticism in Britain and turn many of those who voted to remain in the EU in this referendum into hardened eurosceptics. Yet again people will flock to Ukip - Ukip could get a massive boost if the British people vote to remain in the EU just as SNP got a massive boost after they lost the Scottish independence referendum - and Ukip will, once again, put pressure on the government to hold a SECOND referendum. And, after the way Britain was punished by the EU after holding the first referendum, this time the British people will vote to leave.

    So that's why I tell the europhiles not to rejoice too much should they win the referendum on 23rd June. A vote to remain in the EU will not spell the end of the campaign to get Britain out of the EU. Far from it. I'd expect another referendum within five years.
     
  4. Fugazi

    Fugazi New Member Past Donor

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    The highlighted part is simply wrong.

    In 2011 the UK paid in a total of 25.1 billion Euro, and received a rebate of 3.6 billion Euro, that is a net contribution of 21.5 billion Euro which still places the UK as the fourth highest contributor of the 28 nations. On a per capita basis the UK contribute is only less than 6 other member nations - Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Belgium.
     
  5. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There will a big PR push to stay in I imagine, similar to the Scottish Independence vote.
     
  6. PreteenCommunist

    PreteenCommunist Active Member

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    The polls at the moment seem to be indicating that "Leave" has a very narrow lead over "Remain." But given the unexpected results of the GE last year, I'm taking British polls with a pinch of salt. Especially because when you're actually in that polling station and you're staring at a blank piece of ballot paper, it's (apparently) very hard to vote for something too radical. The vote will probably be to remain, but UKIP will be boosted, and it's a lose/lose situation anyway. The entire referendum is a stupid, fruitless diversion.

    As for my personal opinion, I'm not eligible to vote, but I would vote to remain simply because it would make it much easier for me to go to the university in which I want to study (ETH Zürich).
     
  7. Fugazi

    Fugazi New Member Past Donor

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    So then your reason to vote to stay is purely based on your own personal desires and not what is best for the country as a whole?
     
  8. PreteenCommunist

    PreteenCommunist Active Member

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    Well the country doesn't have some unified set of interests, but since the workers are f*cked whether we stay or leave, yes.
     
  9. Fugazi

    Fugazi New Member Past Donor

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    Do you not consider that a little bit shallow, placing your own desires above what is best for the country as a whole (BTW that includes staying in just as much as leaving)

    Even if it were my desire to remain because it made things a little easier for me I would still vote out if it meant the country would benefit as a whole, and vice-versa.
     
  10. Fugazi

    Fugazi New Member Past Donor

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    I'd be interested to see how leaving the EU would affect your choice of university.
     
  11. PreteenCommunist

    PreteenCommunist Active Member

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    Did you read my reply? I said the country doesn't have a unified set of interests and the workers (my decisions are bound up with my class interests and the interests of workers' liberation) are screwed over anyway, and that's why I'm voting based on personal interest.

    EU citizens have massive benefits when applying to Swiss, Norwegian or EU universities regarding cost, ease and requirements of application, even likelihood of selection.
     
  12. mihapiha

    mihapiha Active Member

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    Can you provide a source for that information. The information I found claims that the UK paid 11.34 Billion into the EU in 2014
    http://ec.europa.eu/budget/figures/interactive/index_en.cfm

    devided with UK's 64.1 million inhabitants, it's roughly 177 Euro contribution per inhabitant. France, a country not in your list pays 296 Euro per resident, Italy 240 Euro, Denmark 394 Euro and Spain 213 Euro. I'm not even going to calculate Luxembourg, etc.

    The only "Western-European" country I found paying less is Portugal with 156 Euro per resident.

    Based on the list I have the UK ranks around 12th in terms of contributions out of the EU15 ( Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom) I'd consider western. So I feel my statement is still right... But feel free to prove to me how the UK is paying more than 7 of the countries listed. That would make my statement certainly untrue.
     
  13. Fugazi

    Fugazi New Member Past Donor

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    I have it bookmarked on my main system and will provide it when I get home .... probably not till tomorrow though, apologise for not including it in my original response.
     
  14. reallybigjohnson

    reallybigjohnson Banned

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    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8036097.stm#start

    This shows payments/population. If you look at the net contribution tab you will see that the UK is up their with high contributions as well.

    Until the EU kicks out the PIGS it will never work. The EU should have started with the northern European countries and then only allowed the southern European and Mediterranean countries to join AFTER they had reformed their economies and showed consistent growth and employment and reduced welfare dependencies. Instead they just decided to glob everyone good and bad together with no real central authority to manage the entire mess.

    Greece, Spain, Italy and so on are dragging the rest of the EU down with them in flames and its in the UKs interest to get out before the ship sinks.
     
  15. mihapiha

    mihapiha Active Member

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    That is a news article from 2007. Why is that more accurate than the official budget figures I found from the European commission from 2014? And on another note why is Net contribution the figure which proves that my statement of

    is inaccurate? If you don't compare per capita, this entire debate makes no sense. Britain has over 64 million inhabitants while Holland has 16.8 million. You cannot compare the contributions equally without looking at per capita, otherwise in the EU the Germans (because there's over 80 million of them) is ahead in pretty much every list.

    This statement is up for debate. Maybe the average Brit does pay more than the average Austrian, Spanish or Italian citizen, but that is not true according to the information I have heard.
     
  16. Jim Nash

    Jim Nash Well-Known Member

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  17. mihapiha

    mihapiha Active Member

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    I don't think you completely understand the benefit of the UK. It is much harder to make UK's people invest more into Vodafone, or any other British company which has virtually covered most of the UK with it's products ands services. It's very hard to make money from the French or Germans, because they have the same services and products, which the produce in their countries, but Poland is a new market. With an investment of 177 Euro or 140 pounds per inhabitant per year in the UK you rebuild a country which gives the UK 39 million new customers, Vodafone cannot find in their own country. To top it off, Poland is not a foreign country according to the EU and British companies have the same rights and use their own people to run this new market.

    If you think that Poland gets more for being in the EU than Britain, than you ought to look at the private market, with British, German and French companies who cannot grow in their own country much, investing billions and buying up anything that could be the competition in 10 years.

    But ok, maybe you do think that 140 pounds per inhabitant per year helps British companies less than 10 to 20% import and export tax on their products in these markets.
     
  18. diamond lil

    diamond lil Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Britain will leave. Personally, I consider the claims made by the Eurosceptics ludicrous.
    David Cameron would have done better to have pointed that out, but he's more interested in saving his arse by appeasing his back benchers than doing anything constructive.
     
  19. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Can you give us an example of a claim which you think is ludicrous?
     
  20. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If that were the case (which I doubt), wouldn’t they wish to punish even more if we actually choose to leave? One of the arguments for leaving is that we’d still be able to trade and reach unilateral political agreements with European countries. If our leaving would cause so much resentment in Europe, wouldn’t they be resistant to supporting that ongoing trade and political friendship?

    As long as UKIP remain a single-issue party, they will have limited influence. A “remain” vote may well bring them some short-term supporters but we’d not close enough to any significant domestic election for them to get the benefit. UKIP will still fail to win seats in the Commons because they have limited appeal on any of the other issues most voters consider even more important than Europe and once the referendum fever has died down, those other issues will come back to the fore.

    That will happen regardless. I suspect that’s why Farage and UKIP were resistant to being seen as the leading force for the “Leave” campaign. They want to be able to distance themselves for a potentially failure and present themselves as the only alternative to actually achieving the result they want. I might even go as far as to suggest that some in UKIP won’t want a “Leave” result because it would remove much of their purpose for existing in the first place.

    I very much doubt it. The actual consequences of either result won’t be apparent for several years for a start and nobody in the mainstream parties would want a repeat of the internal divisions this campaign has created for them. If the result is anything other than a photo-finish, I don’t see any call for a repeat referendum succeeding in the short-to-medium term.
     
  21. diamond lil

    diamond lil Well-Known Member

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    That Britain will have more control of its borders for one.
     
  22. Fugazi

    Fugazi New Member Past Donor

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    http://www.ukipmeps.org/uploads/file/Cost_of_the_EU_25_5_11.pdf
     
  23. Fugazi

    Fugazi New Member Past Donor

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    They cannot, it would violate their own treaties, specifically the The Lisbon Treaty’s Article 50 requires the EU to seek a free trade deal with a member which leaves., and even if they managed to find a way out of Article 50 both parties would be bound by the World Trade Organization’s ‘most favoured nation’ (MFN) tariffs paid by other developed countries. This would prevent the imposition of punitive tariffs by the EU following the UK’s exit. Another point is EU now exempts services and many goods from duties. In 2009 UK charged customs duty of just 1.76% on non-EU imports. This is so low that the EU Common Market is basically redundant as a customs union with tariff walls.

    While this may have been correct at first it is no longer the case, have you even read the UKIP manifesto? - https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.n...l/1429295050/UKIPManifesto2015.pdf?1429295050

    - - - Updated - - -

    Really, why is it a ludicrous claim. please explain.
     
  24. Mircea

    Mircea Well-Known Member

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    Okay.

    What about Foreign Policy issues?
     
  25. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Point taken - just like every other public body in this broken country where bureaucrats rule, the UK Border Agency is dysfunctional. But at least there's a bit more security here than in the Schengen countries?
     

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