Assad may be overconfident... I don't know how he can put the genie back in the bottle with 7-8 million Syrian refugees and Syria in shambles. I will post the rest of the article from the NYT..... http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/23/world/middleeast/bashar-al-assad-syria-russia-west.html?_r=0 BEIRUT, Lebanon One admirer of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria compared him to Charles de Gaulle, the French leader stubborn and confident enough to defy a more powerful ally, the United States, even after its decisive help against Nazi Germany. His critics offer another analogy: the fable of the scorpion that persuades a frog to carry it across the river, then stings it, drowning both. Russia, having rescued Mr. Assad with its air force, is the frog. Now it is swimming for a political settlement to the Syrian war, hoping to cement its renewed status as a global power but given Mr. Assads history, he may very well sink the negotiations and explain, as several diplomats put it, that making deals is not in his nature. Ever since President Vladimir V. Putins surprise announcement last week that Russia was scaling back its aerial bombing campaign in Syria, speculation has swirled about whether Mr. Putins next move is to force Mr. Assad to make a substantive political compromise to end the war. But while Mr. Assads dependence on Russias military, money and political influence has only grown during Mr. Putins six-month aerial assault in Syria, the campaign has also bolstered Mr. Assads confidence and ambitions as it has shored up Syrian government forces. Putin apparently thinks Syria needs Russia more than the other way around, said David W. Lesch, an Assad biographer and professor at Trinity University in San Antonio. But Assad and his inner circle probably arrogantly think it is quite the reverse. Mr. Assad inherited the presidency in 2000 from his father, who governed for 30 years. He relies on a small, cohesive ruling coterie, mostly members of his family and security officials. While Mr. Putins withdrawal appeared to take Syrian officials briefly by surprise, they quickly told diplomats that Russian support was undiminished and dismissed any notion that they were under pressure. Bushra Khalil, a Lebanese lawyer who has longstanding contacts with Syrian government insiders and has met several times in recent weeks with senior officials, including the interior minister and a powerful intelligence chief, Ali Mamlouk, described their mood as buoyant. Mr. Assads advisers believe not only that he has passed the risky period and will remain the president of Syria, she said in a recent interview, but also that his ability to stand up to the whole world will make him more prominent than ever as a leader in the region. They insist that Russia is steadfast, she added, but they also hold an insurance card: their even closer relationship with Iran and their ability to juggle two very different allies. They are like a man with two wives, said Ms. Khalil, best known for defending Saddam Hussein in his war crimes trial in Iraq. There is something you like in each one. Ms. Khalil, who compared Mr. Assad to de Gaulle, is a longtime supporter of his, with a flair for flamboyant statements, and her meetings with officials were not about the war but about a court case involving a son of Muammar el-Qaddafi, the deposed Libyan dictator. But her description of the inner circles mood and modus operandi was echoed by many others, both supporters and detractors, who have met with Mr. Assad or his advisers and allies in recent months. They include scholars, humanitarian officials, Syrian associates, diplomats and officials with the pro-government alliance that includes Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. Most of them spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to preserve their access to government officials or to avoid reprisals. Over and over again in separate interviews, these people described a leadership that is expert in playing allies off one another; often refuses compromise, even when the chips appear to be down; and, if forced to make deals, delays and complicates them, playing for time until Mr. Assads situation improves. Mr. Putin seems bent on capping a triumphant return to the world stage by presiding over a political solution for Syria, hand in hand with the United States. Several diplomats said that Russia defined victory as a negotiated solution that would leave Mr. Assad in power showing that Western aspirations for regime change had failed but that Mr. Putin might back a deal that would ease the Syrian leader out later or diminish his power. While Iran appears more attached to keeping Mr. Assad in power, it is becoming clear that without Russian air power, Iranian support is not enough to help Syrian government forces advance, despite thousands of ground troops from Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militias. So Mr. Assad most likely realizes that he has to engage in some kind of political process, at least to satisfy Mr. Putin, said Mr. Lesch, the biographer, who regularly visited Mr. Assad from 2004 to 2009 and has met with high-level Syrian government officials and opposition members since the civil war started in 2011. But the Syrian government could drag out and complicate the process, Mr. Lesch said, and say no 49 times until saying yes on the 50th. He added that Mr. Assad probably figures he can game the system in a way that preserves the existing core in power. Another problem, analysts say, is that Mr. Assad and his father before him deliberately created a system dependent on a single leader, without strong institutions or deputies. Some believe it is so brittle that even the slightest compromise is likely to bring it down the assessment that led Mr. Assad to crack down on protesters rather than accede to political changes in the first place. Mr. Assad has proved to be the ultimate survivor. He has held on through five years of upheaval, beginning with political protests that seemed to have the momentum of a widespread Arab revolt and American support, and devolving into a proxy war that has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced half of Syrias population. His opponents, domestic and international, have time and again underestimated not just Mr. Assads readiness to use violence to preserve his authority, but also the staying power of his inner circle and core loyalist forces. Mohammad al-Shaar, the interior minister, sleeps in a paper-stacked office, still working long hours despite three attempts on his life a poisoning and two bombs, one of which damaged his right hand said Ms. Khalil, a longtime friend.
Mr. Assad’s brother-in-law, Asef Shawkat, died in a bombing in 2012 along with three other top security officials; Mr. Assad’s brother Maher was maimed but remained a powerful general. Yet Mr. Assad still holds meetings in his ceremonial palace overlooking Damascus with only minimal visible security, leading several recent visitors to joke that they could have walked in with a gun. Opponents also miscalculated the willingness of a critical mass of ordinary Syrians, including many who dislike Mr. Assad, to remain quiescent for fear of uncertain alternatives. Mr. Assad excels at running the clock. His officials show up at peace talks but essentially refuse to negotiate. They broadly promise humanitarian aid access while denying the vast majority of specific requests. Mr. Assad agreed in 2013, under threat of United States military action, to destroy Syria’s arsenal of chemical weapons, yet conventional attacks on civilian areas, and accusations of chlorine gas use, remain routine. As time passes, the rise of the Islamic State and the refugee crisis spilling into Europe have shifted Western priorities away from Mr. Assad’s ouster. Washington no longer insists he step down at the beginning of a transition. Mr. Assad and his allies believe that the West has concluded it needs him to control Syria’s borders to fight the Islamic State and stem the flow of refugees, said an official with the pro-government alliance. Those who support Mr. Assad are counting, in part, on the fractured nature of the conflict, saying they do not believe Russia will be able to find a set of opposition figures who are both willing to share power with Mr. Assad and are acceptable to all parties. At the same time, Mr. Assad and his circle often test the patience of badly needed allies, according to a Syrian who, while deeply critical of the president, supports the government over the opposition. This Syrian, who speaks often with officials, said the government had tangled with Iran over bills, with Hezbollah over turf and with Russia over military performance. That is nothing new. A diplomat with long experience in the region recounted that in the 1980s, a British diplomat asked the Soviet ambassador about the superpower’s relationship with Mr. Assad’s father, Hafez. “They take everything from us,” the Soviet said, “except advice.” Many Syrian officials, steeped in Arab nationalism and often educated in Moscow, feel comfortable with a secular Russia and its emphasis on preserving state institutions. But many also value a theocratic Iran for its commitment to a long fight in Syria and its confrontational policy toward Israel. Several prominent pro-Assad insiders have also sought to woo the United States. But a Western scholar and former official who met Mr. Assad and his advisers last spring said the Syrians demonstrated unrealistic hopes and had failed to grasp how brutal they appeared to Washington. But Western officials who hoped for a split inside the inner circle were also unrealistic, this scholar said. Russia’s aid has now most likely squelched any fears for their personal fate that could have tempted Mr. Assad’s closest confidants to leave. Mr. Lesch, the biographer, said that some advisers believed some decentralization of authority was needed, but that it remained to be seen “if they can form a critical mass to convince Assad to negotiate seriously.” - - - Updated - - - It won't do for Assad to make Putin look like a fool.
A diplomat with long experience in the region recounted that in the 1980s, a British diplomat asked the Soviet ambassador about the superpower’s relationship with Mr. Assad’s father, Hafez. “They take everything from us,” the Soviet said, “except advice.”
Mr. Assad inherited the presidency in 2000 from his father, who governed for 30 years. He relies on a small, cohesive ruling coterie, mostly members of his family and security officials. While Mr. Putin’s withdrawal appeared to take Syrian officials briefly by surprise, they quickly told diplomats that Russian support was undiminished and dismissed any notion that they were under pressure.
Deserves its own thread. DEBKA is a poor source for anything. Might be worth keeping in mind as to the real reason Russia vetoed the UN resolution pertaining to Syria and its solidarity with the Iranian nuclear program... Russia-Syrian-Iranian common defense pact 24 July 2006 : Russia, Iran and Syria have entered a defense pact that is in the process of altering the balance of power in the entire Middle East. Russia’s part in the pact has been kept relatively secret for a long time. But the facts reveal a long steady Russian commitment to the Iranian nuclear program and arms supply to Syria. Quote: A Mossad General shared with me in confidence that he had personally traced the hiring and importation to Iran 283 of the defunct Soviet Union’s top nuclear and missile scientists. This meeting took place in February of 1991. I shared this information with no one until nine months later when it was first made public (although strangely not followed up by the mainstream media). All Russian leaders continued and expanded this agreement to this day, especially our supposed friend, Vladimir Putin. Russia has helped the Iranian nuclear program from its inception. Hundreds of Russian scientists with their families live around the some twenty scattered nuclear related facilities. Russian ‘Spetznaz soldiers’ (special forces) guard all the key nuclear facilities. Iran has had some help on missile development from the North Koreans. But even their missiles are based upon Russian designs. The unmistakable culprit in China, North Korea and Iran’s nuclear development has been the Soviet Union and continued by Russia. The Soviet Union’s motivation for helping China and North Korea was primarily ideological. Russia’s primary reason is hard cash, although now, it is taking on a strategic importance as well. So here are the disturbing hard facts about what is taking place in what can only be viewed as a dangerous anti-western strategy in the form of a Russian-Syrian-Iranian Axis. The first part of this strategy was, as I said above, Russia enabling Iran to produce deliverable nuclear warheads. The second part was the forming of the recent mutual defense pact between Iran and Syria. The foreign ministers of Iran and Syria, Mostafa Najjar and Hassan Turkmani, signed the pact in Tehran on June 15th, 2006. Debka’s intelligence sources unveiled a disturbing clause in the agreement that was reported to President Bush by US Intelligence. This report disclosed: “The clause speaks of more than one battery of upgraded SHEHAB-3 surface-to-surface missiles to be deployed on the 13,000-foot Jabal Ash Shanin ridges towering over central Syria. “The latest Syrian-Iranian exchanges are reported by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence sources as auguring the early dispatch from Tehran of a deputation of officers to take up position at al Qadnus, east of the Syrian port of Tartus, and along the road linking the port to Jabal Ash Shanin. "This team will act as the vanguard of the Iranian missile force to operate the missiles station, will check out the ground and fix its precise location. “Senior intelligence officials warned the US President that this deployment would not just throw the entire Middle East balance of strength out of kilter, but directly menace American bases as far as West and East Europe and the Central Asian republics, including those located on the shores of the oil-rich Caspian Sea.” This puts virtually all of Europe within range of the soon-coming nuclear tipped Iranian missiles — and at the whim of Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Remember him? He is the one who believes Allah has chosen him to fulfill an “end time” Muslim prophecy by starting a world apocalypse in which the long-awaited ‘Mahdi’ (Muslim Messiah) will appear and subject all survivors to Allah. As if this isn’t bad enough news, there is something even more alarming developing within this new axis of evil. Russia is now making moves to protect Syria and its Shehab-3 missile base. This is what DEBKA-News-Weekly reported: “Our sources have observed the Russians dredging the port of TARTUS, Syria’s second most important Mediterranean port, with a view to expanding their logistical supply point there to a fully-equipped naval base, possibly to serve the Black Sea Fleet warships when they are redeployed from the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol. It is designed to be built up into the permanent base for the fleet led by the RFS Moskva (TG Flag) missile cruiser and the RFS Azov landing ship within the next three years. “February 27, 2006, DEBKA file’s exclusive sources found the MOSKVA and AZOV heading into the Mediterranean on Feb. 5, escorted by a Russian military tug, to take part in the a NATO marine exercise Operation Active Endeavor, which was to practice counter-measures against nuclear and other WMD smugglers. NATO chiefs and American generals in particular, attached great importance to Russia’s participation in the exercise. NATO secretary Jaap de Hoop Scheffer had intended to make the gesture of being the North Atlantic Organization chief to visit a Russian flagship. “The visit was cancelled when it was discovered that the three Russian fleet vessels would be paying an official call at the Syrian port of Latakia. “The arrival of the Russian task force in TARTUS in March marked the opening of the Russian base. Our military experts note that the Missile Cruiser MOSKVA is armed with the weapons, radar and electronic gear of an [aircraft] carrier hunter. “The American intelligence briefing for the US President further disclosed that sophisticated Russian air defense systems are to be installed for the dual purpose of protecting the TARTUS NAVAL BASE and the SHEHAB-3 missile emplacements. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources identify the system as the S-300PMU-2. It will be operated by Russian military crews and not put in Syrian hands. “This air defense system is comparable to the American Patriot, but is more effective. “The version to be deployed in Syria is geared to intercept ballistic missiles. It has the great advantage of being ready to fire five minutes after receiving orders …” This explains why Iran has blatantly defied the world and continued developing nuclear warheads, which are closer to becoming operational than we dare believe. Second, it explains the reason why the Iranian and Syrian defense ministers signed a mutual defense pact last June 15th. Third, it gives the reason for Hezbollah launching a war with Israel when they did. It was to divert the G-8 leaders from seriously debating action about the Iranian nuclear threat. And Vladimir Putin played a masterful game of concealing what his forces are doing. Fourth, it explains why Syria and Iran are unafraid to openly support Hezbollah in their war with Israel and support terrorist that target US troops in Iraq. Russia is in the background guaranteeing their protection. Debka reports that they found data indicating that Russia helped persuade Syrian President Bashir Assad to accept the placement of Iranian missiles on their soil by hinting that “it is part of their own deepening strategic plans for Syria. 1More http://www.hallindseyoracle.com/arti...rticleID=13165
Most people know little to nothing about Syria or Saudi Arabia. The Syrian elite are usually educated in Russia. At the same time, Mr. Assad and his circle often test the patience of badly needed allies, according to a Syrian who, while deeply critical of the president, supports the government over the opposition. This Syrian, who speaks often with officials, said the government had tangled with Iran over bills, with Hezbollah over turf and with Russia over military performance. That is nothing new. A diplomat with long experience in the region recounted that in the 1980s, a British diplomat asked the Soviet ambassador about the superpower’s relationship with Mr. Assad’s father, Hafez. “They take everything from us,” the Soviet said, “except advice.”
Why should he as long as Russia helps the Syrian army to succeed?... Syria's Assad shows no willingess to compromise Fri Apr 8, 2016 -- As the Syria peace talks resume next week, President Bashar al-Assad, backed militarily by Iran and Russia, shows no willingness to compromise, much less step aside to allow a transition Western powers claim is the solution to the conflict.
The problem with a lot,of this is that Assad's position is improving, and his army is holding it's own in areas where it's operating. It can even take on ISIS now, as it did in occupying Palmyra recently. These more abstract, generalized analyses of Assad's hold on power, ignore a more basic, on-the-ground fact. In the west of the country, in Alewite territory, his support is strong. That's a Shiite off-shoot, adding a special interest for Hezbollah and Iran. That area is not going to fold easily or happily under a bunch of Sunni elitests with Euro-American support. Right now, his position has stabilized where he needs it to be stable, and that's all he needs to stay in power for the present.
Alawite refugees in Cairo and Beirut have disavowed Assad and the Assad family.. They have also insisted they are NOT Shia.
