Brexit England and Scotland Polls

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by alexa, Apr 14, 2016.

  1. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    These polls are from April 6th. It needs to be seen if they will change after what the IMF said but the situation now is that England is neck in neck as to stay and leave but stay is way ahead in Scotland

    England ICM

    YouGov
     
  2. unbiased institute

    unbiased institute Member

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    I don't have much faith in polls particularly when they typically use small numbers of participants and its internet based as well too.
    Also I think that the UK overall tends to make their mind up towards the end
     
  3. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Here James Kelly gives a poll of polls and telephone polling although there are less of them does give a different picture

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/new-eu-referendum-polls-from-icm-and.html

    Polls though are all we have got and the reality that leaving is in no way as wanted in Scotland as in England has been known for some time - indeed I heard it was one of the reasons Germany was not in favour of Scottish Independence - hoping that Scotland could keep the UK in. Seemed a bit wild at the time but I can now see that is a possibility. I just do not know what the response would be from English Nationalists.
     
  4. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    OK, I have not been keeping up with this having made up my mind very near the beginning, but here is a totally different plan which could result in a very different orientation and result.

    Leave, remain, or abstain.

    Cameron himself apparently believes his biggest concern is that too many people will abstain. Working people see themselves with two choices - either stay with Cameron's deal or leave with Boris Johnson. I will let Bella say it

    read the rest of the idea here
     
  5. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So what? You could pick out all sorts of different subgroups who would have noticeably different balance of opinion to the population as a whole. That’s a factor in why we’re having a vote in the first place.
     
  6. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So what is that I suspect it would make a difference to a lot of people and while I accept that to you England being 80% of the UK anyone not English is a sub group but this is not true. It has already been suggested there may be another indyref if Scotland votes to stay in and England votes to move out and the belief is that Scotland and Northern Ireland will vote to stay in. Now going on from this I saw a couple of headlines to other articles while I was investigating something else today - something like if Scotland kept England in the UK which is one of the possibilities then England would demand that Scotland go for Independence. That was what motivated me to open the thread and that very definitely could become an issue. If Scotland marginally keeps the UK in Europe then you have not been following English Nationalism if you do not know there will be a lot of people extremely angry and ....

    However I think the Bella article I put in offers another interesting angle and one which began in Glasgow and Dundee, which appears to go by how Corbyn is acting and seems to coincide with how I would hope the EU could grow and change to be working for her people.

    cont'd http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2016/04/13/scotland-remains-and-england-abstains/

    see also http://diem25.org/
     
  7. unbiased institute

    unbiased institute Member

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    Again its still a small group hence I don't have much faith.
    I don't think English nationalism is the motivation for the Brexit.
     
  8. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They are normal poll size. Mu point there was replying to your previous point that they were internet polls to show there is a difference between internet and telephone polls - though if the last UK general election was anything to go by people tend to lie on telephone polls if they are embarrassed by their choices.

    Obviously not the only motivation but it is the main one which has been sold or more to the point they would be the people who would be likely to respond as I said. English Nationalism has had a big surge since the Scottish indyref. Please tell me what you believe the motivation for Brexit is.
     
  9. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I’m sure it’ll be spun that way by the media and various politicos with their own vested interests (especially if the result is a boring clear “Remain”). I don’t think it actually matters much in the real world though.

    Not what I said. English and Scottish are both sub-groups (if it helps, I’m technically neither). So are the Welsh, Northern Irish, Londoners, Highlanders, urbanites, business-owners, students, pensioners, public-servants… any group you care to define is likely to have a different balance of views on the EU, some of them as significantly different to that for Scotland, maybe even more so.

    I don’t think there is an especially wide-spread feeling for that south of the border and I don’t think the EU referendum result would make a significant difference beyond maybe strengthening the feeling of those who already think that way – enough for a bit of a moan down the pub, not to actually do anything about it. Again, there may well be spin to try to generate that impression, particularly from pro-Independence Scots who are seeking any excuse to go back on the “one in a lifetime” idea, but I don’t think it would reflect reality on the ground.

    Which goes to show that differences such as rich/poor, employee/employer and urban/rural are more significant that English/Scottish and the spin generated by those wishing to take advantage of the latter image could risk overshadowing the reality behind the others.
     
  10. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I really do not know what you are replying to here which leads me to believe you are playing games.
    well stop playing games. Scotland and England are different countries and it has nothing to do with ethnicity in Scotland. Scotland is not a subgroup of the United Kingdom it is one of the countries. (I by the way am not a nationalist but you mentioning ethnicity describes a big difference between Scottish and English Nationalists. Scottish is inclusive, English not so - an example, Scottish Nationalism does not increase hatred of Muslims, English does.)

    No you are wrong there. The Welsh and Northern Irish are but all the other categories are not countries.
    Yes I thought all your answers were just to have a dig.
    You are pretending you have no knowledge of English Nationalism. Do not expect another answer from me. I do not answer dishonest posters.
    Which goes to show that you are an arrogant rude person assuming things about me and believing they are right and not being honest about the situation in England as well as having no interest in discussing but just an interest to inflame.
     
  11. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I’m talking about categories rather than countries. The original survey was comparing two categories of people – those who live in Scotland compared to those who live in England (which is technically distinct from Scottish and English, though will obviously correlate in general).

    Of course I have knowledge of English nationalism (and the generic racists who abuse that label, many of whom are really British nationalists anyway). I still think that the element of it that promotes Scottish independence from an English nationalist motive remains relatively small and insignificant and any distinct difference in the compared EU Referendum votes isn’t going to make any major difference to that. I’ve certainly see nothing to support the idea it would have any great impact.

    That was never my intention and I’m sorry if you got that impression but having gone back to reread my earlier posts I honestly can’t see anything rude or presumptive. I’d respectfully suggest that if anything you’re assuming intentions and meanings of my posts that simply aren’t there.
     
  12. unbiased institute

    unbiased institute Member

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    Then neither of these polls are of any real value
    I don't agree with that point of view.
    I believe that the main motivations are economic and political in that many Brits see the EU as a means of constraint and of course there is the issue of border control as well.
     
  13. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They may and they may not. The source I gave is a good source as he always goes into the pluses and minuses of the format used. You I think are just saying polls mean nothing to you. Fair enough but more often than not they do tell something particularly when looked at in detail as Kelly does.
    You do not believe that Brexit comes from a feeling of English Nationalism. Then you ought to look at the history of the movement towards it. You do not believe that Englsih Nationalism rose during Indyref, then you need to look at what was going on during Indyref because there was an enormous amount of Jockophobia going on then something which continued into the 2015 General Election when the Tories put up posters in most English towns of the one time leader of the SNP stealing out of their pockets, despite the reality that the SNP was not even standing in their towns. This was felt by some to be Jockophobia degenerating into the kind of tactics used which used to be used against Jews. We saw English people being interviewed about how they were going to vote and saying they were going to vote to keep the Scot's out.

    When the Indyref result came out, the first thing which Cameron did was not to try and unite the countries but to play to the English Nationalists by promising EVEL - something which led to a lot of No voters wanting to change their vote. You will find below that there tends to be a close symmetry between support for EVEL and BREXIT.

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/22...campaign=New Campaign&utm_term=*Editors Picks

    and
    You would be hard put to find a different sway. English Nationalism tends to hide behind British Nationalism

    Obviously for people who have been brought into this and suddenly need to think about it, economics will be one of the main things they think about but these people I doubt needed a Brexit to begin with.

    There is also a Far Left view in England who believe in Brexit from what I have read they believe that they cannot have socialism in Europe because it cannot change from neo liberalism and capitalism and arguing about the lack of democracy in the EU as well as finding the terms which Cameron accepted completely unacceptable. I have seen it argued these people are also Nationalist but I do not have any idea as to whether that is true. It would I think show a slight over confidence on a country which has voted ever more to the right for the past 30 years. However some of their arguments I agree with. The settlement was for the socially right English Nationalists concentrating first on immigrants - something which most on the left would have a different view on. Another of the whoopee terms was to reduce human rights and workers rights. I do accept that the deal which Cameron came out with is not one which would appeal to anyone left of centre. Hence what Britain is getting on the Brexit deal is a Right argument to stay in and a Right argument to leave, very much why the Bella argument is a good one that what may well happen is that a lot of the English workers, those who have not moved socially to the right and who are not far left may abstain as their really is nothing on offer except 'keeping England English'.

    All these arguments against the EU are now being discussed with DiEM 25 who hope to be able to transform the EU into a democratic organisation and fear the impending Brexit will result in a domino effect causing a disintegration of the EU and the formation of many ethnic nationalist states.


    well apart from what I have said above the only addition politically is English Nationalism.

    No, this is not something seen in Scotland at all. It is important to realise that as quotes I gave you above say this is English thinking indeed English Nationalist thinking. I think part of the confusion probably comes from the reality that as I said before both the remain and leave are led by the English Right Wing. Now Labour under Corbyn is also voting to stay in but things like migrants and ending workers rights are clearly not going to be his reason and they are what are on offer. I understand he has been speaking today but have not heard yet what he has said. It was noted at the beginning that it was going to be very hard to argue the remain part given it's premise is basically anti migrant and removing workers and human rights. However I know at least the largest UK Union has recognised that despite all the problems the EU currently has it is safer to stay in than move out for the well being of their workers.

    Regarding border controls -we already are not in Schengen and if we are to be able to make a deal with the EU outside the EU, then I would imagine that just like everyone else outside the EU we will need to allow the free flow of workers. On most things we will simply lose our say, though of course if Britain goes for Brexit and it follows that this leads to a disintegration of the EU then god only knows what will happen.
     
  14. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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  15. unbiased institute

    unbiased institute Member

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    They cannot be useful because of the small size of the participants in the polls. There really isn't any logical reason that could be provided which would make them useful.


    I didn't see that one bit. If anything I found more people were either unconcerned but aware or they preferred the YES vote.
    A jest I'm sure
    Now that really is insulting and a morally poor thing to say.
    Are you serious? Not to mention its ridiculous that your evidence is an opinion piece.
    That's your opinion.
    Its not possible for the EU to be as democratic to same level as what the UK is used to or any other individual state for that matter
    Untrue by any measure.
    Is this some kind of joke? Are you seriously saying that Scots are 100% backing the EU?
    That's pretty derogatory
    That really is far fetched.
     
  16. Colonel K

    Colonel K Well-Known Member

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    Jeremy Corbyn laid out Labour's official stance, and I might be over-summarising to say that it is this: " Europe isn't perfect, and needs work, but it's less bad than the alternative." Which may well catch the mood right now. He really needs to be pushing it all the way to the poll in two months time. The anglophobes would do well not to provoke any "jockophobic" backlash, since every vote will count.
     
  17. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    Scotland is politically divided East to West.
    So you can reasonably expect the Western Scots to vote against the UK and for the EU, and the Eastern Scots to vote for the UK and against the EU. (Statistically speaking of course).
    Pretty much you could divide Scotland into 2 countries (1 in the UK and the other in the EU perhaps) and you'd get a way better political solution for the bulk of them. But you know how these things are, Scottish nationalists don't want independence half as much as they wish to rule Scotland. And British politicians are no different. They seek to rule over more of us, not less.

    In my opinion the bulk of pro EU polling has the same drawback the Scots referendum polling and the UK national election polling had. They poll young people.
    Young people don't vote.

    So we got polling figures skewed towards left wing political parties and Scottish Nationalism that did not manifest into actual votes at the elections.
    I would expect EU referendum to be similarly skewed towards a stay in vote.
    Old people, particularly those who remember war in Europe, tend to want out of the EU and in a big way.

    In my personal life living in the East of England, I have met only one person who supports a remain in the EU vote and pub after pub of people who support leave.
    An ex pat living in Spain. She, (unjustly), will not be eligible to vote in the referendum. Seems stupid that the kind of person who will be most affected by this decision is not allowed a say. But there you go, it was the same for Scots people living elsewhere in the UK too.
     
  18. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Corbyn had to say what he said otherwise he'd have been entirely out of kilter with his 'cabinet', which would have added to his being out of the mainstream over Trident as well, which is the only reason he supports that. The only thing Corbyn's good at is saying what he knows his listeners want to hear. Bit like Cameron when y'think about it? :mrgreen:
     
  19. diamond lil

    diamond lil Well-Known Member

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    That sums it up pretty well:

    Plus he said this:

    He called for an EU minimum wage to prevent "unscrupulous" employers from undercutting wages, and said: "Just imagine what the Tories would do to workers' rights here in Britain if we voted to leave the EU in June.
    "They'd dump rights on equal pay, working time, annual leave, for agency workers, and on maternity pay as fast as they could get away with it. It would be a bonfire of rights that Labour governments secured within the EU.
    "Not only that, it wouldn't be a Labour government negotiating a better settlement for working people with the EU. It would be a Tory government, quite possibly led by Boris Johnson and backed by Nigel Farage, that would negotiate the worst of all worlds: a free market free-for-all shorn of rights and protections."


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36039925


    A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - voted one of Scotland's top 10 political websites.

    Never (!)

    Personally, I think we should put them all in a room together and let them fight it out between them.
     
  20. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That could have been achieved without being part of the farce known as the EU, as could a lot of other social legislation if we'd had our own sovereignty. It was ever so nice of them to let us carry it through though; who said the European Union isn't democratic?!! :mrgreen:
     
  21. diamond lil

    diamond lil Well-Known Member

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    They didn't let us carry them through. Without the EU we'd still be fighting for most of them.
     
  22. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You're a Remain then? No wonder you don't like Nige. [​IMG]
     
  23. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    London Mayor Accuses Barack Obama of Hypocrisy.....

    London Mayor Boris Johnson has accused U.S. President Barack Obama of hypocrisy for supporting those who want Britain to stay in the European Union.

    Speaking just days before the American leader travels to London, Johnson told the BBC there is no way the United States would share sovereignty the way EU membership requires.

    Johnson says that while Obama has the "perfect right to make any intervention he likes," it is "nakedly hypocritical" to lend his weight to the campaign to stay in the EU......snip~

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/london-mayor-accuses-barack-obama-hypocrisy-38444867

    So what do you think, is Johnson Right or not?
     
  24. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The one and only reason Obama doesn't want us to leave is because the loss of our contributions' tranche to NATO means the US will have to pay it. And of course Johnson is right - no American president would dream of giving away to an unelected foreign power your sovereignty and judiciary.
     
  25. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    I think you Brits should show up when the Peep arrives to speak. Then tell him to stay out of your business and to S.T.F.U. Directly to his face.....so he can't miss understand the message.
     

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