Labor will win election 2016

No, it's not a brave call, it just makes sense. I think everyone bar the rusted ons knew that an Abbott relected government was never going to happen. They were a government full of broken promises that made Gillards supposed broken promise pale in comparison. They were simply projecting themselves without need for magnification of their claims of incompetence and dysfunction of the labor government. Turnbull is the only sensible choice to lead the coalition in the midst of this to stave off a landslide loss, due to a government who had never found their way. The decision has proven effective in stemming the blood loss but not enough to save the party from potential demise. Shorten has looked the goods with sensible policy announcements without promising the world and is obviously growing in popularity. It always takes time for an electorate to warm to an opposition leader but the difference between Shorten and Abbott comparisons needs no explanation. Abbott demonstrated his foolishness in opposition with indications from the right that it would not transition with him in government. In actual fact his foolishness became worse and could only be explained as stupidity. All ministers under the Abbott government were completely out of their depth bar Bishop who showed consumate professionalism. Now Shorten in comparison is demonstrating sensible and methodical leadership in opposition that is in complete contrast to the chicanery of Abbott who was overly desperate for the big job at any cost to his party in the future and cost to the Australian people. The outcome of his prime ministership was inevitable early in his term.
Turnbull had a prime opportunity to turn the negative sentiment around but now Shorten has the ears of the electorate, now the battle for government has become a hard slog for Turnbull. By proscrastinating and constantly having to look over his shoulder it has allowed Shorten to take a firm foothold. The coalition may use the same old boring and well worn out attacks on the unions to gain an advantage but not sure it will work in the current climate of corporate corruption. The other issue is Abbott....he is seemingly dormant now but if Turnbull looks half a chance, the wrecking ball with personal ambition will take care of things.

 

Either way, we will be fukked again.
Nothing has changed, nothing will change, as only change can bring us ahead.....
I have given up and lost all hope,
cheers mate

 

Anything is possible... it's Australian politics!
But understand, it looks more clear cut the more one is biased, simply because when one wants it to happen they start to delude themselves away from reality and construct their own version of reality that fits their belief. I don't think that classifies as politics any more, when one side fights with the other like its a footy match, but that is the way it goes with the media as it is.

 

I'm a bit more optimistic than the overall doom and gloom of Australian politics. I think I've come to the real conclusion though that the only party to take us through current times of economic uncertainty and social change is the labor party. On reflection they always have been. The most significant changes to Australia came about by progressive governments. They were visionaries right up to the NBN until Abbott and Turnbull stuffed the project, along with carbon pricing, until Abbott stuffed it. Can't forget about superannuation until Howard stuffed it. The snowy mountain scheme was a success, with calls that it was too expensive with attempts by conservatives to stuff it. The Libs aim to simply keep themselves in jobs and protect petty social changes with no economic vision. The greens are full of ideas and seem a little too gung-ho without consideration of impacts. It's time once again for a labor party to lead for an extended period of time to allow Australia to move forward. Give the coalition a term in government every 9-12 years to keep labor in check or until the liberals start to make some serious changes like breaking away from their ultra conservative partners.

 

It's called being real.

 

I like your thinking/thoughts and honesty, but Labor isn't much different from the Liberals.
I will vote for the Greens.
Both Labor and Libs are favoring the Adani's Carmichael Coal Mine, that's it for me....
Cheers

 

The point was that is what delusional people think, and the more sure you are the greater is your being influenced by delusion most likely - especially since the election has not even been officially called yet.... I'm not saying the ALP wont win. They don't need the majority of votes as the ALP aligns with the bottom feeding minors and independents, so anything is possible.

I think the problem for the left is quite a few of the wavy younger folk who fell for the Rudd spin have now seen enough of the reality to realize the ALP is full of scat 90% of the time and use the 'fog of politics' to fling it on the LNP. Switched on folk get tired of empty popularism so popular with the left - especially when it burdens our economy with so much debt and lost investment due to ALP posturing. I'm curious to see if Turnbull falls for it, but luckily he is business savy enough to not need to - unlike the Union's bullys running the ALP.

 

I don't think everyone will get every wish that delights everyone. It's just not possible. There are too many interests to cater for everyone, however, the party that caters for the majority and the majority of issues should be our government. People are swindled by the nobility class despite the fact that they themselves do not fit into this bracket. Peasants are voting for the liberals who represent nobility(I'm sure a few will chuffed by this idea, but it would a case of the ugly step sister trying to squeeze her big hoof in the glass slipper), which doesn't make much sense at all. Yeah labor has their issues but not to the extent of the divide that stretches from the peasant class to the distant liberal economic and social ideal. If the people can help realign the liberal party further to the centre, you'll probably find that the greens would gain more traction. I'm loath to become like America and certainly don't want to follow their social and economic structures. The AT's of the world are delusional about their place in society and want to be that ugly step sister with the size 14 hoof trying to fit in the size 5 petite glass slipper. Now that's delusion!

 

Clearly projecting the conservatives again. Interesting that Turnbull is wanting to increase our debt even further. I give him marks for stepping out of the foolish shadow of Abbott who lied about the impacts of debt that he gave himself absolutely no room to move on it. Strangely the idiot continued to double the debt in 2 years despite promising he would bring it under control. Abbott knew full well that debt is good dependant on where it is spent. He certainly didn't give us any nation building projects that would provide returns for the future. Good to see Turnbull has a plan, but he sat in agreeance with Abbott on just about all issues, despite the negative impact on Australia"s economy, which makes him also a liar. They just can't be trusted! Labor had us 5 steps forward under Gillard but have in 2 years taken 10 steps back under Abbott and now Turnbull.

 

Um, we're living with the debt amount and rate that the ALP hitched us. There is no way in hell an economy can quickly turn around the trajectory the ALP put our debt on. Not to mention we are still living with their budget decisions, like the submarine project which was launched and announced by Rudd. It's these ALP decisions which are increasing the debt, but yea obviously once debt is increasing it's hard to wind it back and still try and grow an economy. Thanks for the mess Rudd/Gillard. So... still waiting for a reason not to vote LNP, because the spin from the left is vacuous goop so far, worth only the humour from their delusion. #vote1waleedaly #not

 

I think you may be right, I'm definitely voting labor... I can't stand the liberals both State and Federal in my area and I met the lady running for labor the other day, she's new, really nice and very intelligent, no contest. As for Turnbull, he had his chance and didn't overly impress.

 

Turnbull, in thrall to the Billy Tea Party crowd (not my phrase, read it here or somewhere else online but I like it) trogs of the Liberal Party (please note the Nats are already in trog phase), has blown their chances. I'm pretty sure I was never keen on him but some of the soft-headed so-called "progressives" (Libs with a social conscience in all probability) were all over him. Now not so much. Now the disillusionment has set in. Sensible people (unlike me) who tend to think about their vote are drifting away from Turnbull due to the trogs and they may well go to Shorten. I hope they do. I'm totally biased though.

But as far as actions go, the Turnbull government is about as ineffectual as the Abbott government. They are hopelessly incompetent. Forget ideologies, this mob are just plain bloody useless and that's going to weigh against them at the election. Absenting a total mind(*)(*)(*)(*) from Labor I think they're going to win.

 

You're still getting it wrong AT. While ever there is a contraction in the economy the worst thing that can happen is standing by watching it all unfold without intervention. The effects of the Great Depression are written in black and white. Debt is not bad unless of course in Americas case you are bailing out the very establishments who helped cause it......the banks. Hey, there are winners out there feasting on the pain of others, especially in Americas case. Gillard and Rudd provided a stimulus that propped up employment and maintained a steady flow of money through their fiscal policy. Without this debt our unemployment rate and thus productivity would have been absolutely shot to pieces. Infrastructure investment allows for returns in recovery periods but provides a stimulus in contracting periods. Who knows when the economy will boom again, but one thing for certain is that AUSTRALIA's economy is linked to the worlds economy but with slight variation. There is certainly too much doom and gloom about the Australian economy, which was being created by the right nut jobs in the coalition arrangement. Their whole premise for this is just individual selfish egotistical motivations for power and control without care for the damage it does.

Turnbull is following the path of the labor party regarding stimulus through infrastructure building. A sure signs he is sticking his fingers up at Abbott who again played politics over such a serious issue. Once the world economy bounces the system will be set in place to allow us to recoup on these investments.

 

I was half hopeful of Turnbull Scarlet, but lost me completely over time. Yes, and he obviously totally ignored your efforts bringing attention to the RSRT.

 

If the Liberals lose it would be first time since WW2 that a party has only had one term. All what it requires is that Turnball makes a few more silly mistakes and he is finished. This will not be too hard. Only issue is that Labor is not much better.

 

I was definitely hopeful of Turnbull. But he is just one of those self preservating polititians with absolutely no cojones. I suppose he is starting to become irritatingly dull to many people. The true colours of this party and their ineptness is coming to the fore for the blinded or hypnotised by the Abbott slogans. I hope Shorten stares down the liberals over the introduction of an ETS scheme of sorts to reduce our emissions. He will bloody win by a landslide on the back of it. I say this because people on the whole want to address this issue.

 

I'm still predicting an LNP win. There is a reason Federal Governments rarely lose after 1 term - the last one was during the Great Depression. The 'sophomore effect' is an observed phenomenon where people are reluctant to throw out newly elected MPs. It doesn't always work, but it helps. Probably what kept Howard from a spanking in '98 & allowed Gillard to survive in 2010. The fact that the LNP has a big margin also helps. Requires a larger uniform swing.

That said, this lot are in serious strife. Turnbull has lost his mojo. He is second guessing himself. He could have gone to a poll last year, but he didn't. He should have more effectively confronted the far right in his party, but he hasn't. he could have done something to shut down the virtual civil war in the NSW branch, but he can't or won't. He could have laid out some sort of vision as to why he wanted to be PM & what he wanted to do, but no joy there. As a result he finds himself struggling to to look Prime Ministerial. The subs decision has probably shored up SA, and the budget may help to steady the ship, so it isn't over yet.

If the far right of the party & disgruntled Abbott supporters start leaking he could be in strife. If any of a number of woefully inadequate ministers says or does something stupid he could be in strife. If someone in Treasury stuffs up the numbers on election promises he could be in strife. Barnaby Joyce. If Bill Shorten continues putting out decent policy, hitting the LNP on 'fairness' & doesn't stumble he could be in strife. The question is going to be - is it better to be a once popular leader whose popularity is on the slide, or an unloved leader who is on the rise? Guess we'll find out soon.

 

sorry about that, there was a hang up at the pub... something about body shots

 

Just could not stay focussed on the task at hand by the sounds of it ! I would never have been distracted by such hedonistic exploits.

 

Nah, I was replying to 'you' complaining about the 'idiot doubling debt in 2 years'. I know debt can be a good thing, but not when pilled on for no real benefit like under the ALP. The bankers love the ALP more then the LNP for this reason, and its why Swan got the best treasurer award.. talk about 'dinner for winners' ie dinner for schmucks if you havent seen it.

As I said, the debt trajectory is the fault of the ALP because they fudged the budget to push spending out past 3 years.

I'm still waiting for specific examples of what exactly the LNP is doing to wastefully rake up debt? We all already know how the ALP did it. But if the left is going to blame the LNP for increasing debt then at least prove they are not projects actually started by the ALP budgets.

Here are two of the big spending ones that get blamed on the LNP when in fact they are more correctly the ALP's;
The F35 decision - Rudd's decision.
The submarine project - Rudd's project.
Geebus, Rudd even based US troops on Australian soil and we didn't hear a peep out of the left. The true left is really dead I think, replaced with protest parties only intent on stealing power for powers sake.

 

Howard committed to the F-35 in 2002. Worse, he actually committed $US 150 million to the development stage and signed a subsequent memorandum committing to purchase. Worse still, as it became clear the F-35 wouldn't be ready remotely close to the promised delivery date he purchased 24 more F-18s at a cost of $A6 billion. Rudd did have the option to walk away, but having spent 5 years & over $A6 billion as a result of Howard's decision it would have been a large expenditure of political capital to do that. It would also have risked even further delay and expense in trying to find an alternative.

The JSF was Howard's baby. Any other interpretation is spin at best and lies at worst.

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2012-2013/JointStrikeFighter

You are only doing marginally better on the Subs. Yes, Rudd pushed for 12 subs in the 2009 White paper, but he didn't sign any agreements with anyone. No money committed. Even the number was not set in stone. That didn't happen until late 2014 - over a year after Rudd lost the election. It is not unusual in defence procurement for the amount of something ordered to change ever after initial agreements are signed (that has happened with the F-35). There is absolutely no reason why it can't be changed before that. In fact, we could change it now - there is still no contract. Rudd didn't commit us to buying a single sub. Turnbull is about to commit us to purchasing 12. That figure could have been changed at any time since the 2013 election.

Turnbull has also chosen a build that will add tens of billions to the project cost for political reasons. Keep in mind this same government killed tens of thousands more jobs in the auto industry ostensibly to save a lot less money that the extra spend on the subs. Rudd didn't make them do that either.

Sorry, you'll have to do a fair bit better than that.

 

Incorrect. Howard signed onto the SDD phase, which was not a commitment to buy but rather joining the program with the option to buy - so that local manufacturers could bid for work contracts on the multinational project. The actual decision to commit and buy the jet occurred during Rudd ALP government, and was their decision.

I know that linked page says we were committed but its incorrect. Considering it was written during the ALP terms that is expected. Here is a link which shows the ALP were still assessing options before the final decision was required;
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:"media/pressrel/G0PP6"

Here is some wording from 2006 press release under LNP;
"‘The Government gave First Pass Approval for the AIR 6000 New Air Combat Capability project last month but Australia will not make an acquisition decision for the JSF until after Second pass, scheduled for late 2008 "
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo...application/pdf#search="media/pressrel/PNSL6"

The more fact checking one does about the ALP the more you'll realize most of their press releases are designed to misrepresent information to persuade everyone else who is not in a position to know the truth, which usually lies in the details. The media has no interest in researching truth because they are more interested in sensationalism, and the ALP abuse information for popularity, so then given most of the media is politically left we end up with the situation where incompetent Union thugs like Gillard and Shorten get lifted up. Rudd was an anomaly because they needed a likeable clown to ensure they didn't sink the anti-Howard anti-workchoices sentiment at the time. Again, its all about power in the ALP.

That is what I said, Rudd launched the project, I used the words it was Rudd's project. You don't screw around industry by starting an acquisition process of this size and then pulling out when other systems are being operated to match that acquisition. Not to mention Rudd made it political. The key here thing is that is was the timing, Rudd announced it and Rudd started it, the LNP was just following on their project. The number is dictated by operational requirements and shouldn't be considered suitable for a political football either.

 

one of the best comments in a long time....
Thanks mate

 

Even though most of it is wrong?

 

Its like arguing the invasion of Iraq did never happen....
We are walking on two different sides in life, you and me.....
In hindsight Rudd and Gillard combined didn't rep up as much debt as is the case with Abbott and Turnbull. But I guess you will deny that as well,
regards