Sea Level Rise From Global Warming

Climatologists have warned of significant increases in the oceans sea level due to global warming (regardless of cause). They've also stated that the primary cause isn't the melting of land ice but instead is caused by the Thermal Coefficient of Expansion of sea water. Like virtually everything when something gets warmer it expands and sea water is no different.

I'm no climatologist but I'm a pretty good mathematician so all I needed was enough information to run the calculations.

When I investigated the thermal coefficient of expansion of sea water it turned out to average about 0.06659% per degree of Celsius increase between 0C and 20C. The ocean averages about 15,000 feet in depth so a 1C increase in the mean ocean temperature results in almost a 1000 foot increase in the sea level (i.e. 15000ft x 1.0666 = 15,999ft).

I knew that the thermal expansion of the ocean would be significant but the actual results of the calculation is startling. No wonder that the climatologists are expressing serious concerns about global warming.

 

Yawn.......

More Al Gore / Chicken Little, the Sky is falling tripe.

Genetic altered foods pose a much greater danger and will end up killing more people than Global warming.

 

Your math is off by a factor of 100.

0.06659% means you multiply by 0.0006659 (1% = .01)

so ... 15,000ft x 0.0006659 would equal 9.9885ft

 

WHY is that tripe? Do you have anything to add beyond snark?

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WHY is that tripe? Do you have anything to add beyond snark?

 

How long will it take to heat the entire ocean mass by 1 deg C ?? What are the mechanisms involved in this heating process ?? How much heat will be needed ??

 

But only the top ~ 700 feet is involved in any meaningful circulation and convection process. That brings it down to ~ 6 inches. The sea level rise measured today is ~ 1 foot per century and using a climate sensitivity to CO2 of ~ 1 deg C the sea level rise would be ~ 1 foot higher in 2100. No big deal.

 

What is this conclusion ^^ based on ?? There is absolutely no evidence of any harm done to any human being by genetically modified foods. The senseless hysteria and precautionary principle banning of GM foods by the European elites has resulted in great economic harm and human suffering in third world countries.

 

Not sure why you directed this response to me.

 

Your post considered a temperature rise of the entire 15,000 ft depth by 1 deg C. But you were probably just pointing out the math error. So my comment really should go the the OP. Apologies.

 

No worries

I'd be happy to take up the conversation if you like though (since it seems the mathematician (heh) has abandoned the thread).

 

Were that true, Florida would be close to a thousand feet under the sea. NY City long ago would have vanished. Los Angeles gone to the sea. San Francisco near me long since a goner.

Funny how I don't see sea rise here.

 

Actually I was in error as referring to it as a percent because it was the expansion factor that isn't a percentage. I would have had to move the decimal point to turn it into a percentage (i.e. 6.659%) and I didn't do that. I noticed that after the fact but couldn't edit my post. My mistake.

 

It is true that most of the circulation and convection process is limited to the upper 700 feet but there have still been significant increases in deep ocean measurements by scientists in recent years so the heat does work it's way deeper into the ocean over time. We're talking small fractions of a degree in warming in the deep oceans but it is taking place as the heat absorption moves slowly down into the deeper waters.

 

How long depends upon how easily the oceans can radiate heat back into space. The only variable in planet temperature is due to infrared radiation which is blocked by greenhouse gases like water vapor, CO2, methane, etc. that reduce the infrared radiation of Earth's temperatures into outer space. Relatively speaking the oceans are cold compared to the surface land surface and tropospheric temperatures and don't radiate much heat into space.

Solar heat drives the increased ocean temperatures.

It takes a metric butt-load of BTU's to heat the ocean but there's basically a constant 420 btu's of solar energy per foot square per hour at 93 million miles. To remain at a constant temperature the Earth must radiate that much energy back into space. The oceans absorbs not just the direct solar energy but also cool the atmosphere that absorbs some of the heat as well. In any event it takes one btu of energy to heat one pound of water one degree and there's one hell-of-a-lot of pounds of water in the ocean.

 

No worries at all. Thanks for coming back to the thread.

 

I'd lost track of the thread. As noted I'm not claiming that I know the climatology but I was aware of the fact that the climatologists were warning of significant sea level increases that couldn't be accounted for by melting land-ice. I'd read where they stated that the increases were based upon the thermal expansion of the ocean so I wanted to find out the details on why it would expand so much. That was the focus of my investigation. As noted it doesn't take very much at all to raise the oceans by 100 feet which is devastating in it's own right. I'm also aware of deep ocean temperature increases that have been recently measured and that reflects the real mass of the ocean. They're only small fractions of a degree but that's all it really takes for the ocean to expand significantly resulting in the flooding of significant land with dense populations.

So I ran the math just to see how much of a problem it could be.

 

So it would be thousands of years ?? Hundreds of years ?? The Fahrenheit temp scale is used in the definition of a British Thermal Unit.

The energy content of the oceans is ~ 1000 times the energy content of the atmosphere.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/06/energy-content-the-heat-is-on-atmosphere-vs-ocean/

 

While it could be thousands of years, and typically is, it all really depends upon how good of a thermal blanket the troposphere is in keeping absorbed heat in the ocean. The more greenhouse gases the less heat is radiated from the ocean back into space.

You're correct that the ocean (a liquid) absorbs a lot more heat than the troposphere (a gas) which is why referring to changes in the troposphere are virtually meaningless. All of the climate change "denier" claims I've read relate to tropospheric temperatures and not the ocean or land (a solid that absorbs the most heat energy) temperatures. For example between about 1998-2014 the tropospheric temperatures remained relatively constant but the ocean temperatures increased significantly. In short, while the atmosphere wasn't heating the oceans were and the oceans absorb a lot more energy so even a very small increase represents a significant change in the "mean Earth" temperature.

Yes, a BTU relates to one degree change in Fahrenheit but we can obviously convert that into Celsius. It also related to a specific temperature rise of one degree (e.g. from 68F to 69F) but I've forgotten the details. It's not the same for all temperatures. For example it takes far more than 1 BTU to raise the temperature of water from a solid state at 32F to a liquid state at 33F. Once again I forgot the details but it takes something like 10 BTU's just to make the conversion from a solid state to a liquid state for water.

 

What is the source of that ridiculous claim ??

All the alarmist claims are based on the upper estimates of the atmospheric climate sensitivity to CO2 of the general circulation models. Now you are claiming that the heating of the oceans is the most important factor ?? How much is this significant increase in the average temperature of the oceans ?? How is that measured ?? How many instruments and at what depths are these instruments located ?? What is the accuracy of these instruments ?? How many cubic miles of ocean water is represented by each instrument ??

 

The oceans haven't increased by 1C (yet) but recent measurements reflect a fractional increase in both surface and deep sea temperatures and that's alarming because it doesn't take a 1C increase to flood much of Florida. A 0.1C increase would flood the costal areas of Florida and many other places as well. New Orleans would also be gone because we couldn't build dikes high enough to keep it from flooding. Many costal cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle would also suffer flooding to a significant degree.

 

The ocean study temperature data collection and information has been released in numerous scientific journals. Do a little internet searching and you'll find dozens of studies that have been published in recent years.

 

I am close to San Francisco and by gosh, I am still not alarmed.

When I see Democrats acting as if the problem exists, I will then think over getting alarmed.

They are not yet there.

 

So you have nothing.

 

Pretty sure any intelligent person could read Shiva's post and find the information. You need help?

 

Maybe you can answer these questions ??

All the alarmist claims are based on the upper estimates of the atmospheric climate sensitivity to CO2 of the general circulation models. Now you are claiming that the heating of the oceans is the most important factor ?? How much is this significant increase in the average temperature of the oceans ?? How is that measured ?? How many instruments and at what depths are these instruments located ?? What is the accuracy of these instruments ?? How many cubic miles of ocean water is represented by each instrument ??