Electoral model: Trump has at least an 87% chance of winning

In other words, totally ignore the polls. Actions speak louder than words. ('ll bet certain posters will go totally nuts over this. They'll trot out their electoral college charts and predictions and tout the “scientific reliability” of polls.)


Here’s what Norpoth wrote a few days ago at the Hill:


To start with something basic, opinion polls are really about “opinions,” not actions. At their best, they can tell us how people feel about political issues and personalities. Do voters, for instance, like or dislike candidates such as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?


Yet having an opinion and acting on it are two different things. Barely 6 in 10 voting-age American citizens turn out for presidential elections. Ascertaining the opinions of 100 citizens is just a start. Now you have to determine which 60 of them actually take the time to mark a ballot. They are the “likely voters.” They are the only ones that count. But to find them is no easy chore.


It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty. So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through. Miscalculations of which respondents will turn out to vote can easily screw up a poll prediction, so would it be sure thing if we just dealt with actual voters?


Saw His Mightiness Jeraldo on Fox&Friends this morning saying something like: If Trump wins, it'll be the biggest upset in political history.” Oh how I'can't wait to see his face the morning of November 9.


More w/links @ http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...-clintons-winning-but-our-polling-methods-are

 

Lmfao!!! You guys are funny. There's a greater chance Hillary gets 400 electoral votes than the perv Donald winning.

 

Geraldo is old enough to recall when Reagan beat out Jimmy Carter after months of saturation bombing by the Mainstream Media of the day for the benefit of hapless Jimmy Carter. If one listened to the Dem controlled media of the day then one KNEW that there was no point in any Right of Center voter even going to the voting booths and then . . . Reagan won in a landslide.

It's the same thing now. We just got finished with the MSM saturation bombing Trump over sex and then falsely declaring Hillary a winner of each presidential debate. The MSM is trying like hell to convince all Right of Center voters that there's no point in even showing up to vote. The reality is that Hillary is in the process of going down in flames.

 

There is a greater chance that Hillary can run the mile in under 10 seconds than Trump winning.

 

Just a refresher of what you speak of....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsDe-8cOSYY

 

Notice in that ancient news segment that one cannot tell if the presenters are leftists, Right of Center, or politically neutral? I mean we KNOW that Brokow is a lefty, but back then it was not obvious. Nowadays it's always instantly obvious what political loyalties a 'journalist' possesses.

 

Electoral model: Trump has at least an 87% chance of losing

had to fix the title.

 

It slipped a bit.

FiveThirtyEight.com has Clinton's chances of winning at 86%.

FiveThirtyEightis often credited as being the most reliable polling source.

 

I like how the Clinton worshipers call Trump a perv. If he gets elected and gets a bj in the oval office on public time with an underling, they will say, it's just sex.

 

The article doesn't state that Trump has a 87% chance of winning.

 

Don't deflect. Just because slick Willy was a perv doesn't mean it's acceptable to support a known perv. Own your perv candidate and admit you don't care that he's a disgusting old ass perv.

 

If I gotta pick between a perv and a crook, I'll take the perv.

 

Nowhere in the article is Trump's chances of winning stated anywhere, let alone 87% chance of winning...

 

Okay, make your childish comment. Let's get down to the facts.

We have PROOF that Bill Clinton raped women and that Hillary threatened them if they continued with their claims. We KNOW he made repeated trips to an island owned and operated by a pedophile filled with numbers of underage girls who are there for the sole purpose of providing sex for his guests.

We have unfounded allegations conveniently brought forward against a man who never had one single complaint in 30 years! Not one.

Okay, lets put one other allegation to rest - that just because Trump said he'd date his daughter, that makes him a pedophile. Get over it. Throughout time, fathers have expressed their admiration for their daughters. "She's a real knockout." "Smartest girl I know." "She takes after her mother."

I have a granddaughter who graduated third in her class. She has an amazing physique and is one very attractive young woman. She is the first in her entire family to attend university and is maxing some very difficult classes on her way to a degree in civil engineering. I would be more than proud to go on a "date" with her to have her on my arm and show her off to the world. Only someone with a warped mind like you Leftists would ever take that for anything but pride in her and her accomplishments.

You people are sick!

 

^Obviously, very few people care about ancient accusations against Bill Clinton.

As far as the OP?

It would take a miracle for Trump to get over 200 EV.

 

I agree with Michelle Obama. If Hillary can't run her own house, she can't run the White House.

 

Trump is both a perv and a crook.

 

I hope the Trump Cult does not turn violent against decent Americans on November 9.

Perhaps, they might be encouraged to remain in their fantasy land.

 

Outside of the expected and obligatory murder/suicides in the hills, and a bunch of gun freaks who make things difficult for police (in the immediate aftermath)--President-Elect Hillary will proceed with business as usual.

 

The only problem with this is that it is a big old statistical lie. Way before election day, already in August, Reagan was already very far ahead of Carter in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Pennsylvania. He was already within 4 points of Carter in Arkansas, then a +30 D state. So, I know that the Right loves to romanticize the 1980 election as a come-from-behind thing, but in reality, it was not. The Carter team knew all along that it was on the losing side. And all of this data was published daily in what you call the MSM. So, please, do go educate yourself. It's not just one poll - it's the sum and aggregate of many. And you know, education keeps people from repeating worthless lies that have long been debunked, over and over and over again...

 

With their beer-can arm firmly planted on the armrest of their living room Quarterback chair, snoozing away after seeing Hillary easily sail above 350 EV, waiting to collect the next unemployment check so that they can (*)(*)(*)(*)(*) and moan about how the left is ruining the country and so....

- - - Updated - - -

And then we will be back to the 1992 slogan "Hilllary can't bake, Hillary can't bake!"

 

Absolutely.

Carter's loss was a foregone conclusion for months before the Nov. 1980 election.

As far as this year goes, a person would have to be delusional to think that anything other than a Clinton NPV margin well in excess of 5% and an EV of over 320 isn't ALREADY a done deal.

 

Meanwhile back in the real world, Reuters has Clinton winning well over 300 EVs currently.

In other news, the Log Cabin Republicans have refused to endorse Trump, Democrats have a 61% chance of taking control of the Senate and races in Utah, Arizona and Georgia have tightened. Even deep red Texas is in play with Clinton only a few points behind!

Have a nice next 17 days, cons!

 

Personally, I think it would be a miracle for Trump to break 200 EV.

The Senate is looking better by the day, especially with recent polling in NH and Nevada.

 

And although Iowa and Ohio are currently tending toward Trump, it is very, very close. Those two may very well fall for Clinton as well.

I am looking forward to election night reporting where the networks will be unable to call Utah for any candidate right away at 10 PM EDT.