I have toyed with this previously, and, found it to be rather remedial, yet i could not find the right combination of factors to take into accounts. basically, the theory goes that if there is pressure or stress on the people, the people react, or leaders, come that. So, if there is [x] people in a country, and a certain percentage of them are in poverty, [y], that percentage will be stressed until they protest, then revolt and steal and rob the country. If it is a right that is being fought for [1a], there is exposure from media for 'these rights' , reminding the people of these [c], and the more people begin to wonder about them [b + c], drawing them into a voice for the situation or liberty, and slowly bringing in more protesters [1a] and international pressure [d]. I hope you can see there is a formula to these events occurring, yet i think we need someone well versed in statistics with the facts and figures too to find a way forward, as well a psychologist and marketing person to measure the social developments.
So, with the factors that go into events, let's look at some major ones? if there is an event, it is due to certain gatherings of people. the most influential factors i find are religion and political policies and the media. with that in mind we move on to population dynamics - how many people live in poverty affects the religious aspects more, as, people in poverty will be more submissive, because they grew up in poverty. that being obvious they desperately seek to get out of poverty, but have long been promised this by each administration that comes to power, seeing the ruling elite as only serving major tax payers, of course. If the levels of poverty are so great that nearly everyone is looking for a way out, then leaders rise to take control of the poor. these leaders seldom cooperate from area to area, so when the politicos meet with the leaders and unite them, then there is a growing factor of 'upcoming revolt.' this alone can lead to a state where there are so many dissenters that the country becomes impossible to manage. if this was to happen, then the leaders will likely meet to discuss things, avoiding a civil war, of course. the easiest way to predict this is to look for the media to see where politicos are 'gathering people.' With religion, another easy way to win people over, the poor come to believe in something with their spare time. when they wander the streets and sit around talking, having no excessive media to occupy them, they will talk about all sorts of ideas, and then obviously one of these is religion, yes? this is where they try to debate each other as to what they and others should do, ultimately, as regards their culture and lifestyles. if a politico or church leader was to have a message that everyone agrees with, then they may 'rise to power.' this could mean the conversion of religious people to a cult or something, and this 'cult' could, if large enough, destabilize the country on many levels. this of course only requires a strong message or interpretation of the texts that defies the leaders, as it would set god against man, in the eyes of the many. With the media, the message, like with the poor people, could be anything. if the message is strong enough, it could lead to unrest and rebellion on many levels with the people dissenting on the leaders and so forth. this is usually something that attracts either conservatives or progressives to a march, where they get angrier and like to feel one of the collective, like to see others with them and saying the same things they are saying. this makes, people feel powerful, in other words, and they enjoy complaining, as most people do, in a group, with the same message and bearing in mind that the grass is always greener on the other side. If any one of these three factors reaches the right levels, then there is an 'event.' this is usually as small as a policy shift or legal reprisal, or as big as a civil war or a leader resigning. this in fact is the only way 'things change.' - - - Updated - - - So, with the factors that go into events, let's look at some major ones? if there is an event, it is due to certain gatherings of people. the most influential factors i find are religion and political policies and the media. with that in mind we move on to population dynamics - how many people live in poverty affects the religious aspects more, as, people in poverty will be more submissive, because they grew up in poverty. that being obvious they desperately seek to get out of poverty, but have long been promised this by each administration that comes to power, seeing the ruling elite as only serving major tax payers, of course. If the levels of poverty are so great that nearly everyone is looking for a way out, then leaders rise to take control of the poor. these leaders seldom cooperate from area to area, so when the politicos meet with the leaders and unite them, then there is a growing factor of 'upcoming revolt.' this alone can lead to a state where there are so many dissenters that the country becomes impossible to manage. if this was to happen, then the leaders will likely meet to discuss things, avoiding a civil war, of course. the easiest way to predict this is to look for the media to see where politicos are 'gathering people.' With religion, another easy way to win people over, the poor come to believe in something with their spare time. when they wander the streets and sit around talking, having no excessive media to occupy them, they will talk about all sorts of ideas, and then obviously one of these is religion, yes? this is where they try to debate each other as to what they and others should do, ultimately, as regards their culture and lifestyles. if a politico or church leader was to have a message that everyone agrees with, then they may 'rise to power.' this could mean the conversion of religious people to a cult or something, and this 'cult' could, if large enough, destabilize the country on many levels. this of course only requires a strong message or interpretation of the texts that defies the leaders, as it would set god against man, in the eyes of the many. With the media, the message, like with the poor people, could be anything. if the message is strong enough, it could lead to unrest and rebellion on many levels with the people dissenting on the leaders and so forth. this is usually something that attracts either conservatives or progressives to a march, where they get angrier and like to feel one of the collective, like to see others with them and saying the same things they are saying. this makes, people feel powerful, in other words, and they enjoy complaining, as most people do, in a group, with the same message and bearing in mind that the grass is always greener on the other side. If any one of these three factors reaches the right levels, then there is an 'event.' this is usually as small as a policy shift or legal reprisal, or as big as a civil war or a leader resigning. this in fact is the only way 'things change.'
