Thread: China plans double-digit boost in military spending

Originally Posted by s002wjh

land test hitting a moving target was done sometime ago, i read some article about it. i think it was concrete block moving or something.

china NEVER announce Jxx, it was just rumor from internet. there whole bunch rumors about china military most are false. if you create 1000 rumor, eventually one will become true. goto sino military website, there are also rumor on new SSBN, new stealth, etc etc.

the DF21D was confirm by both chinese and US government. is it at deployment stage, no. does it chinese work on it, and US military belief its workable, yes. Its not something revolutinary like railgun/laser weapon etc. all the component to make it work are there, test it. its diffcult but not impossible.

all modern ballistic missile etc can have mid course correction, it has been done before. an active seeker MMW on DF21D, mach10 can be done, its not the 1st time seeker been put on hypersonic missiles.

the only diffculty is terminal guidance/accuracy and detect/ID/track CVBG in real time. only the former case are related to DF21D, the latter is combination of UAV, OH radar, Satelite, diesel sub etc etc.

my guess is china still has diffculties to make the DF21D accurate enough to hit a moving target. the accuracy has to be within few meters.

so the fact is US military said DF21D is in IOC, chinese general said the prototype is deployed and start testing etc. and yet you argue its impossible. do you know something that US/Chinese don't? of course there is a chance where china couldn't solve the issues or other reason and cancel the project. but i would not say its ridiculous they can't accomplish this task

Your taking your fantasy and chinese propaganda for reality....

Originally Posted by s002wjh

china NEVER announce Jxx, it was just rumor from internet. there whole bunch rumors about china military most are false. if you create 1000 rumor, eventually one will become true. goto sino military website, there are also rumor on new SSBN, new stealth, etc etc.

*facepalm*

http://www.sinodefence.com/airforce/fighter/jxx.asp

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1600141/posts

http://defensetech.org/2010/12/31/j-...s-perspective/

http://www.janes.com/products/janes/...?ID=1065927860

http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,189937,00.html

I am sorry, this is not an "internet rumor". I suggest you reread the first paragraph of that press release again. Here, let me make it easier for you.

The Shenyang Aircraft Company has been selected to head research and development of a new heavyweight fighter for China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), according to a senior source at the China Aviation Industry Corp I (AVIC I).

And who built the airplane? Why, what a surprise. It was Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, a subsidiary of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC).

No, an "internet rumor" is when people claim that Bonsai Kitten is real. Or that A&F are releasing clothing with offensive descriptions. Or that sending a letter to Bill Gates will get you free money. Those are "rumors".

When something for the last 10 years has been this accurate over and over again, it is not a rumor. These are industry professionals, as well as the Chinese government releasing information for many years.

Why is this so hard to comprehend?

And I would love to see a reference to China hitting a moving concrete block. The only reports I have read claim that it has been tested once, and sank a moored ship.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/chinese...-one-test.html

Once again, it hit a ship that was stationary in one place. That it did not have to find. That was not over the horizon from other Chinese assets.

This is not a test. We already know it can do that, no surprise. Now how about a real test?

Oh, and I do not doubt that the DF-21 series of missiles can sink ships. As long as they have nuclear warheads in the ballistics package.

Originally Posted by Mushroom

*facepalm*

http://www.sinodefence.com/airforce/fighter/jxx.asp

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1600141/posts

http://defensetech.org/2010/12/31/j-...s-perspective/

http://www.janes.com/products/janes/...?ID=1065927860

http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,189937,00.html

I am sorry, this is not an "internet rumor". I suggest you reread the first paragraph of that press release again. Here, let me make it easier for you.

The Shenyang Aircraft Company has been selected to head research and development of a new heavyweight fighter for China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), according to a senior source at the China Aviation Industry Corp I (AVIC I).

And who built the airplane? Why, what a surprise. It was Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, a subsidiary of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC).

No, an "internet rumor" is when people claim that Bonsai Kitten is real. Or that A&F are releasing clothing with offensive descriptions. Or that sending a letter to Bill Gates will get you free money. Those are "rumors".

When something for the last 10 years has been this accurate over and over again, it is not a rumor. These are industry professionals, as well as the Chinese government releasing information for many years.

Why is this so hard to comprehend?

And I would love to see a reference to China hitting a moving concrete block. The only reports I have read claim that it has been tested once, and sank a moored ship.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/chinese...-one-test.html

Once again, it hit a ship that was stationary in one place. That it did not have to find. That was not over the horizon from other Chinese assets.

This is not a test. We already know it can do that, no surprise. Now how about a real test?

Oh, and I do not doubt that the DF-21 series of missiles can sink ships. As long as they have nuclear warheads in the ballistics package.

yes all those site are NOT direct pla/government websites. thats why its call rumor. anyone with little knowledge about china knows almost all aircraft R&D/development occur at Shenyang. the fact is there aren't any official annoucement from chinese government on J20 till we saw it on youtube.

jane/sinodefence and other website also has article about new chinese ssbn, laser weapon, new 52D etc etc, but again its rumor, chinese government never disclose 52D etc. however i won't be surprised if 52D roll out in a few year. there is also rumor of stealth flanker too, maybe true, maybe not.

we are not talking about new revolutionary weapons. all the system needed for DF21D already exist, satelite, UAV, OH radar, MMW seeker, rocket motor, real time processing. if SM3 can hit a ICBM at mach20, is it possible for DF21D to hit a LARGE ship moving at 30knots. there are hypersonic missile that has accuracy of 1-3m, so put a good seeker in DF21D is not impossible. and as i said before we don't have information that US military have, so we dont know the status of DF21D. we do know chinese military said few DF21D was deployed and testing, US official said its in IOC. after 2007 anti-sat test, they certainly don't want a high profile test. US military certain don't want disclose everything about DF21D, other than said it reach IOC.

Originally Posted by s002wjh

we are not talking about new revolutionary weapons. all the system needed for DF21D already exist, satelite, UAV, OH radar, MMW seeker, rocket motor, real time processing. if SM3 can hit a ICBM at mach20, is it possible for DF21D to hit a LARGE ship moving at 30knots. there are hypersonic missile that has accuracy of 1-3m, so put a good seeker in DF21D is not impossible. and as i said before we don't have information that US military have, so we dont know the status of DF21D. we do know chinese military said few DF21D was deployed and testing, US official said its in IOC. after 2007 anti-sat test, they certainly don't want a high profile test. US military certain don't want disclose everything about DF21D, other than said it reach IOC.

No, the support equipment does not exist. The Satellites do not exist yet. The over the horizon radar does not exist yet.

And the "hypersonic missile" is a totally different beast then a ballistic missile. You can't even compare the two.

Originally Posted by Mushroom

No, the support equipment does not exist. The Satellites do not exist yet. The over the horizon radar does not exist yet.

And the "hypersonic missile" is a totally different beast then a ballistic missile. You can't even compare the two.

OMG, china already has OHR, SARs, GPS, UAV, AWAC, Diesel sub etc. the support equipment for ballistic does exist.

yes, hypersonic missile is different than ballistic, but i was refer to similar g-force required to manuver the missile. if ballistic missile has decent mid course correction etc, the terminal manuver at 30km altitude toward carrier ship is possible. if you read my last link, it shows the potetial trajectory of the missile.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-th...on_radar#China
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaogan
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...fYol9cu_RA-ckg

Originally Posted by s002wjh

OMG, china already has OHR, SARs, GPS, UAV, AWAC, Diesel sub etc. the support equipment for ballistic does exist.

Yes, and so does the US. This has existed since the 1950's. Nothing new about that. However, it has largely been discarded because it is simply to "near sighted". Once you go beyong the horizon, things get very "fuzzy", and it becomes usefull only as a kind of "early warning" system. Types, exacy number, and location of the potential targets become impossible to accurately determine.

This is what I mean when talking about OTH "resolution". Remember, we are talking a ballistic missile. If your calculations are even 100 meters off, you missed the target. And OTH horizon is typically off my several miles.

This is a good description from Wikipedia actually:

The resolution of any radar depends on the width of the beam and the range to the target. For example a radar with a 1/2 degree beamwidth and a target at 120 km (75 mi) range will show the target as 1 km (0.62 mi) wide. Because of the long ranges at which OTH radars are used, the resolution is typically measured in tens of kilometres. This makes the backscatter system almost useless for target engagement, although this sort of accuracy is more than adequate for the early warning role. In order to achieve a beamwidth of 1/2 degree at HF, an antenna array several kilometres long is required.

Now look and understand what that is saying. OTH radar is not very accurate. It is good for saying "Look, there are some aircraft and ships heading for us!" However, it is not very accurate. This is why it was used in Early Warning systems. Accuracy there was not required, just warning that something was coming in.

Even conventional radar is often skewed. From my experience not 1 km, but I work with real time guided missiles, so I will take their word for it. But these are not aimed by anything but the missile itself. They do not actually take directions from the radar itself, but home in on the reflection of the beam reflected by the target. So it does not matter if the location by the radar is off, it is not taking directions from it. But this is very different technology from what the DF-21D uses. And OTH is off by tens of kilometers. With OTH, they would see exactly where the carrier is, it would not deviate from it's course, they would fire, and it would hit nothing but a bunch of fish miles away.

When trying to hit a target as small as a carrier, there is absolutely no way that weapon would do any damage at all to the carrier, unless it was carrying a nuke.

Yes, they have AWAC, nobody denies that either. And all of the other things you talk about. None of which has a single thing to do with the DF-21D (except maybe the GPS, which is not fully operational yet).

BeiDou (one of the 2 PRC GPS systems) is only in operation over China, and a few other areas in the Western Pacific. Only 4 birds were ever launched, and the program was scrapped before comming anywhere even close to "global". And the birds were never launched anwhere even close to their expectations (program started in 2000, Asia covered by 2012, global by 20202). However, this has been scrapped now, and is being replaced by BeiDou-2, also known as COMPASS. They claim to have all of the satellites launched this year for this system, and to be fully operational globally before the end of the year.

Yea, don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen. Remember this, and let's come back in December and talk about this again, shall we? I bet you dollars to doughnuts that this absolutely never happens. And remember, this is a critical part of this system so they claim.

Look, you have to learn to do some critical thinking, and look at things logically. You mention a slew of various and random technologies. Most of which they bought/stole from Russia and the US. And none of them really has a single thing to do with the DF-21D.

Guiding a ballistic missile is nothing like guiding a cruise missile (regardless if it is hypersonic or not). Having OTH radar is not the same thing as having OTH radar that can get the extreme resoultions that would be required from hundreds of miles away.

UAVs, submarines (and by the way, they have nuclear boats also, not just diesel), all these things are great. But what good are they for a DF-21D? Nothing, they have nothing to do with it.

Yea, I have heard speculations about this in the past. They use UAVs and subs and other aircraft to try and steer the warhead in. Only problem is that the surviveability of such a vessel is even shorter then that of the carrier. Such would require a bi-directional connection, and that is not instant to set up. The minute the locater vessel started to communicate, all hell on earth would open up on them. And they can either continue to broadcast (even if it could get through the storm of EMI that would open up within dozens of miles of the carrier) they will be shot down or sunk.

Sorry, but you how long have you had Sinophillia? Because you keep bringing these things up over and over and over again, without ever seeming to critically look at everything involved. You seem to embrace anything they bring up, no matter what reality is. You bring up their own claims (OTH radar, new satellites, etc) without actually researching what those bits of technology really are, or how they work.

Kinda reminds me of the .com boom. Invest in us, we are the wave of the future! Petfood.com, toys.com, groceries.com, PointCast.com, tons and tons of hype of the wave of the future.

And what happened to all of those also?

Originally Posted by Mushroom

Yes, and so does the US. This has existed since the 1950's. Nothing new about that. However, it has largely been discarded because it is simply to "near sighted". Once you go beyong the horizon, things get very "fuzzy", and it becomes usefull only as a kind of "early warning" system. Types, exacy number, and location of the potential targets become impossible to accurately determine.

This is what I mean when talking about OTH "resolution". Remember, we are talking a ballistic missile. If your calculations are even 100 meters off, you missed the target. And OTH horizon is typically off my several miles.

This is a good description from Wikipedia actually:

The resolution of any radar depends on the width of the beam and the range to the target. For example a radar with a 1/2 degree beamwidth and a target at 120 km (75 mi) range will show the target as 1 km (0.62 mi) wide. Because of the long ranges at which OTH radars are used, the resolution is typically measured in tens of kilometres. This makes the backscatter system almost useless for target engagement, although this sort of accuracy is more than adequate for the early warning role. In order to achieve a beamwidth of 1/2 degree at HF, an antenna array several kilometres long is required.

Now look and understand what that is saying. OTH radar is not very accurate. It is good for saying "Look, there are some aircraft and ships heading for us!" However, it is not very accurate. This is why it was used in Early Warning systems. Accuracy there was not required, just warning that something was coming in.

Even conventional radar is often skewed. From my experience not 1 km, but I work with real time guided missiles, so I will take their word for it. But these are not aimed by anything but the missile itself. They do not actually take directions from the radar itself, but home in on the reflection of the beam reflected by the target. So it does not matter if the location by the radar is off, it is not taking directions from it. But this is very different technology from what the DF-21D uses. And OTH is off by tens of kilometers. With OTH, they would see exactly where the carrier is, it would not deviate from it's course, they would fire, and it would hit nothing but a bunch of fish miles away.

When trying to hit a target as small as a carrier, there is absolutely no way that weapon would do any damage at all to the carrier, unless it was carrying a nuke.

Yes, they have AWAC, nobody denies that either. And all of the other things you talk about. None of which has a single thing to do with the DF-21D (except maybe the GPS, which is not fully operational yet).

BeiDou (one of the 2 PRC GPS systems) is only in operation over China, and a few other areas in the Western Pacific. Only 4 birds were ever launched, and the program was scrapped before comming anywhere even close to "global". And the birds were never launched anwhere even close to their expectations (program started in 2000, Asia covered by 2012, global by 20202). However, this has been scrapped now, and is being replaced by BeiDou-2, also known as COMPASS. They claim to have all of the satellites launched this year for this system, and to be fully operational globally before the end of the year.

Yea, don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen. Remember this, and let's come back in December and talk about this again, shall we? I bet you dollars to doughnuts that this absolutely never happens. And remember, this is a critical part of this system so they claim.

Look, you have to learn to do some critical thinking, and look at things logically. You mention a slew of various and random technologies. Most of which they bought/stole from Russia and the US. And none of them really has a single thing to do with the DF-21D.

Guiding a ballistic missile is nothing like guiding a cruise missile (regardless if it is hypersonic or not). Having OTH radar is not the same thing as having OTH radar that can get the extreme resoultions that would be required from hundreds of miles away.

UAVs, submarines (and by the way, they have nuclear boats also, not just diesel), all these things are great. But what good are they for a DF-21D? Nothing, they have nothing to do with it.

Yea, I have heard speculations about this in the past. They use UAVs and subs and other aircraft to try and steer the warhead in. Only problem is that the surviveability of such a vessel is even shorter then that of the carrier. Such would require a bi-directional connection, and that is not instant to set up. The minute the locater vessel started to communicate, all hell on earth would open up on them. And they can either continue to broadcast (even if it could get through the storm of EMI that would open up within dozens of miles of the carrier) they will be shot down or sunk.

Sorry, but you how long have you had Sinophillia? Because you keep bringing these things up over and over and over again, without ever seeming to critically look at everything involved. You seem to embrace anything they bring up, no matter what reality is. You bring up their own claims (OTH radar, new satellites, etc) without actually researching what those bits of technology really are, or how they work.

Kinda reminds me of the .com boom. Invest in us, we are the wave of the future! Petfood.com, toys.com, groceries.com, PointCast.com, tons and tons of hype of the wave of the future.

And what happened to all of those also?

yes i know how OTH work. my work constanly put me with radar stuff. i was refer to combination of UAV, OTH, diesel sub, and SARS. the conflict between US and china will likely start at south china sea or taiwan. both case china knows the general area they need to search for during the conflict. we are not talking about search the entire pacific, just region of interest. for example if its south china sea, then US CVBG has to get near 1st/2nd island chain. chinese only has to send their UAV, AWAC, SAR image, OTH, SUB to find exact location of CVBG in that area, of course ID carrier might have some diffculties, but not impossible. once this is done, information can be send to ground control for the DF21D, and tracking can be done with combination of AWAC, UAV, and satelite.
DF21D can be lunched with initial position via internal GPS recevier, then update new position using GPS during mid course correction. there are only few mins window to destroy any device thats tracking the CVBG. IR terminal seeker will be almost impossible due to extreme heat/pressure cause by missile passing through atomsphere at mach10+. so likely a MMW seeker will be used, and may have secure datalink update during terminal phase as well.

again all the stuff i mention already exist in PLA inventory, and can be used to search, ID, track CVBG in south china sea. of course its easier if china know the general area to search for, but in the event of china-taiwan conflict, CVBG will be locate withing strike distance of taiwan coast. thus reduce the search grid significantly. Modern SAR can detect ships, and can map entire surface of the earth in a day or so.

heck thats how US and others done to find target of interest and destoryed.

and what technology are you refer to that is copy from russia? russia didn't provide any technology relate to satelite, UAV etc.

Originally Posted by s002wjh

yes i know how OTH work. my work constanly put me with radar stuff. i was refer to combination of UAV, OTH, diesel sub, and SARS. the conflict between US and china will likely start at south china sea or taiwan. both case china knows the general area they need to search for during the conflict. we are not talking about search the entire pacific, just region of interest. for example if its south china sea, then US CVBG has to get near 1st/2nd island chain. chinese only has to send their UAV, AWAC, SAR image, OTH, SUB to find exact location of CVBG in that area, of course ID carrier might have some diffculties, but not impossible. once this is done, information can be send to ground control for the DF21D, and tracking can be done with combination of AWAC, UAV, and satelite.
DF21D can be lunched with initial position via internal GPS recevier, then update new position using GPS during mid course correction. there are only few mins window to destroy any device thats tracking the CVBG. IR terminal seeker will be almost impossible due to extreme heat/pressure cause by missile passing through atomsphere at mach10+. so likely a MMW seeker will be used, and may have secure datalink update during terminal phase as well.

again all the stuff i mention already exist in PLA inventory, and can be used to search, ID, track CVBG in south china sea. of course its easier if china know the general area to search for, but in the event of china-taiwan conflict, CVBG will be locate withing strike distance of taiwan coast. thus reduce the search grid significantly. Modern SAR can detect ships, and can map entire surface of the earth in a day or so.

heck thats how US and others done to find target of interest and destoryed.

and what technology are you refer to that is copy from russia? russia didn't provide any technology relate to satelite, UAV etc.

None of those would survived if they are in effective range. What? Do you think the "made in china" label is some sort of force field that protect them from ASW and AA system that the US possesses.

Again, you're taking your delusion as reality.

Originally Posted by s002wjh

yes i know how OTH work. my work constanly put me with radar stuff. i was refer to combination of UAV, OTH, diesel sub, and SARS. the conflict between US and china will likely start at south china sea or taiwan. both case china knows the general area they need to search for during the conflict. we are not talking about search the entire pacific, just region of interest. for example if its south china sea, then US CVBG has to get near 1st/2nd island chain. chinese only has to send their UAV, AWAC, SAR image, OTH, SUB to find exact location of CVBG in that area, of course ID carrier might have some diffculties, but not impossible. once this is done, information can be send to ground control for the DF21D, and tracking can be done with combination of AWAC, UAV, and satelite.

It is not as easy as you think.

Here, let me put it into real-world, maybe that will make it understandable.

You have a gigantic parking lot, that covers from the Mexican Border to Canada. And from the Pacific Coast all the way past the Rocky Mountains. That is even roughly the are that we are talking about.

Now this parking lot is largely flat, so vehicles are largely free to travel along it wherever they want.

Now on this gigantic parking lot, you have a large tractor-trailer truck. You know it is in this area, and it has a bunch of smaller trucks with it.

Now you have to find the truck. OK, you have RADAR, great. And Satellites, wonderful. You still have to find the truck. Oh, and that truck is constantly moving, between 15-40 mph.

And there are other trucks in the area also. Many of them on radar look to be just as large as the truck you are looking for (container ships {especially UCLV} have about the same radar cross-section as a US Carrier). But these all look the same on conventional radar, let alond OTH radar, which is much less accurate, and return much less information.

OK, now you have a bunch of moving trucks, maybe 20 of them give the return you want. How are you going to identify your truck? Well, you have to either send somebody out to find it, or use a satellite to spot it. But that is a really big parking lot, and the trucks are always moving.

Sending somebody out may work, but remember that this truck has a bunch of other smaller trucks that would love to shoot down your aircraft. And this truck can cand out it's own aircraft.

Well, you have the UAV. That's right.

The problem is that your UAV uses radio waves to communicate with you. And the truck and all it's assistant trucks have equipment to locate radio transmissions. They also have equipment that can block radio transmissions.

OK, let's just say you locate your truck anyways. You plot where he is, and where he is going to be when the missile hits (simple calculus). You launch your missile. But suddenly he speeds up and starts to make radical turns.

That's ok, you still have your subcompact car that has been hiding nearby tracking him. He starts to inform you of the new speed and direction of the truck, but since he is now broadcasting a radio signal also, he is now under attack. So he can either remain in place and be destroyed, or turn off the radio and try to hide in a parking lot full of other subcompacts.

And once again, the fact that all of these smaller trucks supporting the big truck have their own missiles that are designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles.

Starting to get even a small clue of how difficult this problem is? The "protection bubble" around your carrier during a time of histilities is normally over 100 miles. And they do not cruise along the shore, but way out to sea. That OTH radar would likely get no feedback. Or it would be lost among the background noise. And on this radar, about 2/3 of the cargo ships in the region would look just like a carrier. Not to mention the super tankers.

Remember, we are after all talking about one of the most highly transited shipping lanes in the world. Everything that goes to and from China, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea goes through that area. That is a lot of shipping. Most of it on POSTPANAMAX, NEWPANAMAX and ULVC ships that on a radar would look just like a Nimitz class carrier.

Any UAV would be dead within minutes of turning on it's radio, the same with a sub. That is if it could cut through the intense amounts of interference from the ECM systems on the carrier and all the rest of the task force.

This would be like trying to watch for an incoming bomber by only watching radar screens from Chicago. And a Tu-160 does not appear significantly different then a 767 on a radar acreen. But here you would have a single Tu-160, surrounded by 40+ 767s and similar aircraft.

Now are you starting to get even an idea at how impossible this is?

You have GPS, great. This does not let it track anything though. The ship turns, speed up or speeds down, and that GPS coordinate is now simply another empty spot in a vast ocean.

And this still has nothing to do with the 6-10+ ships that are protecting the carrier that have missiles capable of shooting down an incoming ballistic missile.

Originally Posted by Mushroom

And this still has nothing to do with the 6-10+ ships that are protecting the carrier that have missiles capable of shooting down an incoming ballistic missile.

And also take out his GPS satellite...