With both coalitions set to come in at around the 71 seat mark (if things stay much as they are), SF will hold the balance of power. Fine Gael will try it on with Labour, but the numbers wont be there.

Then Fianna Fail will try it on with Rabitte; this is the big test. Can Labour go in with a Fianna Fail with Bertie still their leader? Return the arch crook and buddy to every crook and crony (CJ, Ray, Liam) that Dublin Fianna Fail elites ever produced? The Man who made Royston Brady?

I think not.

But Fianna Fail will present it as if its up to Labour to save the Republic from having Sinn Fein in government - if you dont come in with us you are forcing us to assume power on the back of the Provos!

There is a long way to go, but watch that scenario play itself out....and poor Pat, hungry for Ministerial portfolio, but with party members still smarting from the ten year electoral banishment that was a result of their last decision to sup with the devil....a lot of hand-wringing and, 'ah well, the electorate have spoken, and this seems to be what they want' standard justifications.

Interesting times.

Did any of you see Royston on the Late Late last night? I watched it with a cousin and we were wetting ourselves laughing - this man is hilarious. A pure 'school of Bertie' political product; the seeming-down-to-earthness, the master of the stream of unconsciousness of sentences that never quite get to their end or establish anything as having actually been said.

He mentioned 'what me Da always used to say' about four times, that he was chatting about me brother over tea with me Mum, that the 50,000 debt accrued was more 'on the 100,000 side, but the suits in Fianna Fail, once it went over 75,000, told him if he just would stop talking about it it would go away, "and it did"! Wonderful FF political economics there.

Shafting his brother he drew attention to the fact that he had never seen 8 month old daughter; what if there was something horrible like what happened out in Portugal, or if someone was very sick in hospital, sure, I would love if he came round, but, he made his own decisions and I respect that, but, sure, isnt life too short, and as me Da used to always say....." and off he would go again.

The quote of the night was this, "I wouldnt even hire meself, if I was me!"

The man is a genius. My new Irish political hero - he represents something essentially true in Irish politics, the shameless sham.

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"A man's work is nothing but this slow trek to rediscover, through the detours of art, those two or three great and simple images in whose presence his heart first opened."

Royston was hilarious. Remember, he was about to become an MEP for Bublin. I know peopel who were ready to vote against him (that was before the wheels came off his campaign). He had a ton of posters up. One word slogans that promised nothing: Drive! I forget the other but he wasn't promising anything.

He sure shafted bertie & FF last night with his "tellin it like it is" attitude. I wonder if he spent a lot of time in the presence of a Dublin taxi driver???????


Pity Kenny didn't let him spill his guts the way Gaybo let Flynn spill his guts . There were times when Kenny should have let Royston go off on an even bigger tangent.

What do you expect. Royston aint that bright. Back the last time all he had to do was stay public and not go into hiding. He was telling the truth after all.
Then again he is a dub.

And your right about regional lines, here in Carlow/Kilkenny Carlow people we vote for Carlow candidates rather than across party lines.
Hence that mad hatter Green Mary White standing a good chance of getting in.
Best case is two of the five are carlow so i'd still prefer her over the kilkenny candidates.

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"Better to die on you feet than live on your knees" - Emilio Zapata

The Third Way:

Clinton introduced it, Blair improved it and Bertie Ahern perfected it.

Anyone going to vote for Bertie because CLinton, Blair & George Mitchell said that Bertie was a really great guy?

Rabbitte's blasting McDowell out of the water early in the campaign has to be the quote of the period: "Again last night Michael McDowell wrestled with his conscience and Michael McDowell won."

He was the clear winner of last night's debate. The 'menopausal Paris Hilton' was a bit staged, I felt, but at least he wasnt over-excited (Sargent), stuck in bland generalisations (Adams), or a picture of a puce-faced, schoolboy-petulance (McDowell).

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"A man's work is nothing but this slow trek to rediscover, through the detours of art, those two or three great and simple images in whose presence his heart first opened."

Eoghan harris was in fine form on the Late late.

But my son tells me Dunphy made him look ridiculous. This is not difficult - which aspect of his wildly inflated self-importance was he ranting on last night?; the 'how I masterminded campaign strategies that were earth-moving in the effects' (which he didnt); or how all my Michael Collins film-scripts were ignored in the run up to the Neeson film because there is a conspiracy of rabid green-arsed nationalists who wont allow truth to be spoken'; or, 'Trots in the canteen of RTE have been holding me back in my career, and Anne Harris as well, for about twenty years. We are obviously two of the most important and interesting people on the planet and they determonedly refuse to recognise this because they are bitter, unreconstructed, Stalinist journos.'

Oh yes, and the appeals to the 'common man in the country is basically an American neo-conservative, if only we would look into his heart' (strangely reminiscent of Dev, whom he hates)....

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"A man's work is nothing but this slow trek to rediscover, through the detours of art, those two or three great and simple images in whose presence his heart first opened."

you got it in one. Harris was just ranting about the elitist Dubin 4 media. he didn't contribute much else to the discussion. He's good at stringing singular arguments into lengthy discussions.

Harris was spurting his usual horsemanure about the Dublin media elite imposing an impoossible puritanism on the campaign. . nothing new from Eoghan there. he went to explain that he'd be voting for bertie because the media is dictaing the campaign, blah blah blah... of course he'll spend the next 5 years going n about how bad the Fianna Failers are.

Takes a neo-con to know one. Wasn't eoghan die hard commie in his younger days?

Dunphy just reminded everyone of the corruption. I think he said that he'd be voting for the greens. Dunphy mentioned the gormley-mcdowell confrontation during the week , he liked the fact that Gormely stood up to the lies that mcdowell was saying about Gormley.

Pity no one reminded Eoghan of his attempt to turn the Fine Gael ard fhies into "Tops of the towns"

Fianna Fail are up in the most recent polls... is it going to be another five years of the same? (well, not quite the same, as the PD influence isnt likely to be there)....or is this just another of those flattering 'closing-polls' to which FF seem to be subject (they were put at five percentage points above their actual election performance last time round)...

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"A man's work is nothing but this slow trek to rediscover, through the detours of art, those two or three great and simple images in whose presence his heart first opened."

Well fantastic Harris is endorsing us.

As to the polls, as i said earlier national polls aren't worth the paper there printed on. Were not the US or Brits with first past the post, proportional representation means the marginal seats are won on transfers on 3rd and 4th preference votes which aren't adequately reflected in the polls.
Were a regionalised electorate in many areas, for example in Carlow/Kilkenny people vote across party lines to ensure the candidate from the county wins. Many other areas are the same.

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"Better to die on you feet than live on your knees" - Emilio Zapata