10 years later and the Taoiseach, who likes to act like he's having a few scoops with the lads, is not wearing any clothes.

Enda Kenny looks like he's doing what he should have been doing in 2002.
Labour are just labour

Who is it going to be: Fianna Fail-PDs, Fianna fail-Labour, Fine Gael-Labour-Green. Fianna Fail - Sinn fein, Fine gael-Labour-Independents?

I'd guess Fianna Fail Labour is how the parties will sort themselves out with Biffo as taoiseach.

I think it will be the Fine Gael-Labour-Green Party coalition in power. McDowell has sunk the PDs and Fianna Fail will desperately cast-about for someone (anyone!) to return them to power, but there just wont be enough among Pds, Independents to make the sums word.

I suspect that Fianna Fail will try it on with Sinn Fein, but they will crucially lose the 1 or 2 remaining Pds in doing so.

But lets not underestimate the capacity of Messers (sic) Kenny and Rabitte to get Bertie off the hook by their own inept fumbling.

It IS time for change, all the same.

Here in Donegal South West Pearse Doherty will surprise everyone - many feel that he will be elected, but they underestimate his massive first preferences, which will shock the establishment parties. They are only estimating around 13-15% for him at present; they are way off. He is a nice young fella, actually, but I get on fairly well with them all.

What constituency are you in, and whats happening there?

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"A man's work is nothing but this slow trek to rediscover, through the detours of art, those two or three great and simple images in whose presence his heart first opened."

I'm in the constituency of Dun laoghire.

The mood here is that people want a change. Fiana fail have two strong candidates, Barry Andrews & mary hannifin. It'll be shame if one of them is not elected, but they're the breaks.

Fine gael is running 3 candidates, Regan, Barrett & GAA man Bailey. Thats a good ticket they have here.

PDs Fiona O'Malley (daughter of Des)

Labour are running Eamon Gilmore & someone else.

Greens have Ciaran (mammy owned oil stocks) cuffe

Richard Boyd (I live on millionaires row) barrett

Forget who the Shinners have running here.


FG should really run 2 candidates. 3 candidates will split their vote thus creating the situation where FG/Labour/green/PDs to be competing for transfers. better to get 2 guys to poll well and get the transfers rather than run the risk of being eliminated early on by polling poorly early on.


It looks Bertie will be let off the hook ( £28k in 1993 would have bought a house in Dublin) , gotta wonder why we werereated to that ircus for all of last week. McDowell didn't do bertie any favours by threatening topull out of govt! Can't see the country ever falling for the free-market claptrap . All the talk of payments Sure takes the heat of Fianna fail because they don't have to answer for their non-accomplishments Their slogan "Now the next step" is similar to the 2002 slogan of "A lot done, more to do".

Havn't met any of the candidtaes yet, I do plan to meet them in Dun laoghire over the next 2 weeks. I've got lots of questions for them


There's no strong local-issue that would elect an independent. There's 13 independents, I can see a few more them guys getting in places where the health service is non-existent.

The reason I said that FF-Labour would join a coalition is that FG-Lab-Green wont have enough seats and they'll have to cut a deal with the independents.
FF-Lab will have the numbers.

WHO would Pearse take a seat from? If he's polling 15% then he wont have far to go to get the quota of 25%

The early polls indicated that Pearse would take Dinny McGinley's seat (FG), but I cant see that. Mary Coughlan was shown to have an enormous first preference vote that would take Pat 'the Cope' in on her surplus, but I dont think this will be the way it will pan-out.

Mary will get fewer first preferences than the polls anticipated and Pearse will get many many more. Coughlan and Pat 'the Cope' FF camps are split and transfers could follow a geographic rather than a party consideration. Dinny will hold, in anticipation of a possible 'Minister in waiting role' in the event of a change of government. That leaves the 'Cope' as the logical loser in the whole mix.

All this, of course, is predicated on a whole load of assumptions and 'feelings-in-my-water', etc...

But I generally have a good feel for these things...keeping my antennae out.

Dun Laoighre sounds interesting. I think you are right about the FG strategy being a bit iffy. Andrews and Hannifin are strong and, barring a complete collapse of the Fianna Fail vote, should be safe there.

Hannifin a Fianna Fail leader in waiting? Biffo the favourite, but watch her move if Bertie implodes!

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"A man's work is nothing but this slow trek to rediscover, through the detours of art, those two or three great and simple images in whose presence his heart first opened."

That's a very exciting race there. Nothing like 2 candidates from the same party who hate each other (Fine gale are avoiding that scenario here in Dun laoghaire this time). I can see why McGinley & Coughlan would keep their seats. The media will never say that a Shinner is strong in the opinion polls.

I dont know if FG here are still suffering from fallout due to idiot grandson (Liam Cosgrave).

Mary Hannifin is Des hanifin's daughter, I'm sure she'll have her backers in the party if she swoops for party leader Still can't see Bertie remaining on as leader of FF.

Bertie could surprise us all yet, and come back in (as you say) in a previously unimagined coalition (FF and SF?).

But I think tend to think the clock is ticking on his leadership - there is slavering on the front bench in anticipation...

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"A man's work is nothing but this slow trek to rediscover, through the detours of art, those two or three great and simple images in whose presence his heart first opened."

I wouldn't rule out a FF-SF government. If SF pcikup 12 seats that would make it easier for FF to form a govt without having to rely on Independents. FF are up 25 according to an irish Times poll (whatever that means).

The post election deal making will be more enjoyable than the campaign itself.

As a FF member if Bertie turns around and does a deal with SF id be very, very unhappy. Its better for us to be out of power than in with those criminals.
And go Mary Hannafin! (Brian Cowen's a grand man though).

One thing I've noticed is that opinion polls don't really show the whole story, theres simply to much scope in some areas for the transfers to go either way depending on who goes out first.
Worse result be a hung Dail, which could happen with things been so close.

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"Better to die on you feet than live on your knees" - Emilio Zapata

Opinion polls mean F-all in the context of the Irish voting system. Its not a first past the post system and , as you mentioned, the polls don't indicate where the transfers go.

In rural areas the transfers tend to go along geographical lines rather than party lines. Independents took 13 seats last time out, their number will be crucial as to who forms the next government.

With both coalitions set to come in at around the 71 seat mark (if things stay much as they are), SF will hold the balance of power. Fine Gael will try it on with Labour, but the numbers wont be there.

Then Fianna Fail will try it on with Rabitte; this is the big test. Can Labour go in with a Fianna Fail with Bertie still their leader? Return the arch crook and buddy to every crook and crony (CJ, Ray, Liam) that Dublin Fianna Fail elites ever produced? The Man who made Royston Brady?

I think not.

But Fianna Fail will present it as if its up to Labour to save the Republic from having Sinn Fein in government - if you dont come in with us you are forcing us to assume power on the back of the Provos!

There is a long way to go, but watch that scenario play itself out....and poor Pat, hungry for Ministerial portfolio, but with party members still smarting from the ten year electoral banishment that was a result of their last decision to sup with the devil....a lot of hand-wringing and, 'ah well, the electorate have spoken, and this seems to be what they want' standard justifications.

Interesting times.

Did any of you see Royston on the Late Late last night? I watched it with a cousin and we were wetting ourselves laughing - this man is hilarious. A pure 'school of Bertie' political product; the seeming-down-to-earthness, the master of the stream of unconsciousness of sentences that never quite get to their end or establish anything as having actually been said.

He mentioned 'what me Da always used to say' about four times, that he was chatting about me brother over tea with me Mum, that the 50,000 debt accrued was more 'on the 100,000 side, but the suits in Fianna Fail, once it went over 75,000, told him if he just would stop talking about it it would go away, "and it did"! Wonderful FF political economics there.

Shafting his brother he drew attention to the fact that he had never seen 8 month old daughter; what if there was something horrible like what happened out in Portugal, or if someone was very sick in hospital, sure, I would love if he came round, but, he made his own decisions and I respect that, but, sure, isnt life too short, and as me Da used to always say....." and off he would go again.

The quote of the night was this, "I wouldnt even hire meself, if I was me!"

The man is a genius. My new Irish political hero - he represents something essentially true in Irish politics, the shameless sham.

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"A man's work is nothing but this slow trek to rediscover, through the detours of art, those two or three great and simple images in whose presence his heart first opened."