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Originally Posted by billycotton";p="
Jon,let me say I agree with most of what you saywith the exception of what share of the vote we might get.
You are right when you say it is in our interests to reform the voting system,but I don't think their is much chance of this happening for odvious reasons,namely it suits the big 2.
I thought that your party had some kind of agreament with labour to look at bringing in P R , or has Blair backtracked on this?
Looking again at our prospects,I think a lot will depend on us winning some euro seats this will then give the party the finance to kick on and make inroads into the mainstream.
As for the tory party ,yes they have a ageing membership but while they continue to have the backing of big buisness they will continue to be a major player in this country.
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Seriously, your hopes are too high. Think about it for a moment (I'm referring to the General Elections). Let me point out a few things:
There is a far larger ethnic minority percentage in the South-East where there are a huge number of seats - due to London's high population. You think that they're going to vote for you? Little or no chance, therefore the only realistic seat in London you could ever win would be Millwall If you don't win a large number of seats in the South East then you have no chance of winning an election. As I've said earlier, I think we may well see the first BNP MP next year - most likely in somewhere like Oldham. We saw it with Le Pen in France though, as soon as an extreme party has the chance to gain power, the people will move behind the moderate candidate - this goes back to what I said about people turning to the moderate alternative before the extreme one. You may gain a share of the vote, but unless you gain seats that is irrelevant. I reckon you may gain 1-2% next year nationwide.
Secondly, yes Blair did backtrack on PR. He made a pact with Ashdown in 1997 where we would join in a coalition Government if he only had a small majority. In return he would start electoral reform. Well we all know what happened, Labour got a huge majority, Blair set up he Jenkins Commission, it came back with AV+ and Blair has not come back to Electoral Reform since.
Thirdly on the Tories, most of those businessmen are either near retirement age or slowly realising that supporting Labour is the only way they are going to gain any favours due to the state the Tories are in.