Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

We knew years ago that this is where we were headed. That's why we put in place the pandemic response group in the NSC, helped form WHO, began a directory of sources of materials known to be needed in case of pandemic, worked on plans for best use of the President's Defense Production Act to fullfill needs, and other such acts to prepare America for coming pandemic.

We worked with China to build the Wuhan lab and work together on finding and studying how viruses move into the human population. They found someting like 10,000 varients of SARS that are carried by bats - with the SARS at the root of COVID19 being the second to cross to humans and cause notable affect.


Unfortunately, Trump has destroyed or attacked each of these. He had removed the last US communicable disease expert from China shortly before COVID emerged!

EVERY expert in related fields says this will happen over and over again, and not just from China. MERS if the same deal, only from the ME. And, Africa is a known source.


We're not just Fing up THIS pandemic. We're doing NOTHING to be prepared for the next one.

 

How are these diseases transferring from animal to human? It seems to me these labs are doing more harm than good, if we're basically extracting these viruses to study them instead of just leaving them in the animals. And what about those wet markets? I think this is mother nature's way of telling us to treat life, all life with preciousness and care.

 

DOUBLE

 

Yes - all good questions.

These are the problems that Wuhan, which we helped create and staff, has been working on.

Wuhan has done extensive work in looking for SARS varients and tracking down histories. They have located other SARS varients crossing to humans that didn't cause pandemic, because they were cases involving remote miners getting SARS from cave bats. They have idetified something like 2,000 SARS varients being carried by bats, with the one causing COVID19 being one of the few that has crossed to humans.

Anyway, the potential for future pandemics of the same kind is pretty clearly high.

We need to have our scientists working with Chinese experts like we were in the past, before Trump terminated US participation. We would have known about this pandemic earlier. We would have ensured that there was no delay in China's government being informed, like there was. And, we need to be figuring out how viruses cross to humans with an eye to slowing or stopping that from happening.

What really scares me is Trump's tweet of 2 days ago where he said that every time he thinks about this he hates China even more!!!

China is our ALLY in this. Working with them in China is seriously important. China thinks so, too. They don't like pandemic any more than we do.

 

South Africa has reported +10,853 daily C19 cases. This means that for the first time ever, 4 nations on Earth are reporting cases in +5-digits (+10,000 or far more): USA, Brasil, India and now, South Africa. I mentioned in this morning's worldwide analysis that South Africa was closing in on the +10,000 mark in daily C19 cases.

BTW, the population of South Africa is circa 59.3 million.

The population of the US State of Florida is: 21.9 million. And Florida, a state, reported 605 more daily cases today than the entire nation of South Africa.

Food for thought.

 

In what is a continuation of this weird new trend, while the cases are going up, the deaths have freaking plummeted across the entire country. Only 238 deaths in the US as I write this.

 

Weekend counts are always lower. Either it's due to reporting or folks have the good manners to not die on the weekends. With a holiday weekend we may see lower deaths until Tuesday.

 

I just wanted to touch on this. While it's no doubt the preferred position to take (for Dr Hakim), it's unlikely to be true. The !ndonesian Govt is notorious for paternalistic bombardment of public health and 'behaviour' expectations. I've lived there, and can absolutely vouch for it. This is a country which takes no chances, given their lack of resources. If your village is way off grid - no internet, no telephones, no newspapers etc .. they'll drive trucks around bellowing rules and information from a megaphone. No one escapes what the Govt wants you to know.

The problem is NOT lack of information. It's cultural disregard for science and medical advice.

 

My pals in high medical places stated, with absolute conviction and decades of expertise, back in March that this must be considered a dress rehearsal for an inevitable future of much worse viruses. If we don't learn how to shut down hard and fast NOW, we'll be ****ed next time. Every nation must have solid lock-down protocols, adequate PPE, and understand well ahead of time how they'll keep everyone fed and housed. These will be crucial responsibilities for all future leaders, and will likely become key campaigning points.

Maybe a consortium of First Movers could be the new UN, predicated on the reality of human concerns into the future. Careful but insistent shepherds for those nations still unable to figure out that wishful thinking isn't good science.

The times, they are a'changing.

 

That is exceedingly good news, but there is no guarantee that the number of deaths, over time, will stay this low.

 

Do you have information suggesting it is a bigger deal than they are claiming?

 

Holiday weekend.

 

People really want to live. Deaths follow cases by about 14 days. So the deaths you see are from our best point. They are about to start back up.

 

You know how we mark generations with these nicknames(X, Y, Z, etc)? That's to keep track of the generations of births, and I think doing the same for the coronavirus would be beneficial to getting a better gauge of the virus's impact.

So for example: June 15th infections should be considered resolved on July 6th or so(That would be precisely 3 weeks.) July 1st infections will be seen on July 22nd.

 

Yes. Everything takes 2 or 3 weeks. You open bars and see the results start in 3 weeks. Cases go up and deaths follow by 3 weeks. It's one of the reasons we keep making mistakes. To much of a hurry to see something happen.

 

Actually most deaths follow more like 4 to 6 weeks post new infection. Only the most frail/elderly succumb within 14 days.

 

I'm not sure what you are hoping to measure here. Patients coming off vents (for example) take more time that that. One of the problems hosptitals face is that they can not dump these patients on the street, and when longer term care facilities fill, hospital beds don't empty.

 

Not too sure, however, apparently, looks like their new swine flu appears to be seemingly innocuous, and may conceivably be under control.[/QUOTE]

 

I'm hoping to be able to sufficiently categorize certain groups of infections, timed with a resolution of their cases. We should be able to get a better read on the virus's progression(and our ability to fight it) by getting an understanding of the results of each group of cases.

In other words, July 3rd and July 4th should be it's own separate groups of cases, and viewed accordingly.

 

Sweden is showing that their strategy was correct except that they did not protect nursing and assisted living facilities enough but certainly did not force those facilities to accept patients with active covid infections as did the moron in chief of New York state. Their deaths per day is ~ 10% of what it was at the peak in April which is indicative of herd immunity. And their economy and education systems barely felt any negative affects. The US lockdown was a total mistake. What we are seeing in the US right now is an expected and beneficial increase in positive tests among younger people who have nothing to fear from Covid. The average positive test age has dropped from ~ 65 in April to ~ 35 now.

 

Sweden's response to this virus is multiple orders worse, both economically and in terms of infection/deaths from the virus, as compared against its closest geographical neighbors (Finland and Norway).

And they are still nowhere near herd immunity based on the latest data that I saw.

 

From an article in tagesschau.de today, re July 4th celebrations in the US,

"99 Prozent aller Fälle seien komplett harmlos, so der Präsident."

Is Trump right?

 

HERE the analysis for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

Reminder: New 7-day rolling average system in effect, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

During the run of the day on 2020-07-004 there were some other important analysis:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-003, posted 2020-07-004, 11:48 GMT +2, #10857.
Russia goes over 10,000 total C19 deaths, posted 2020-07-004, 12:31 GMT +2, #10863.
Florida reports +11,458 new C19 cases, posted 2020-07-004, 19:11 GMT +2, #10780.
Comparing last Saturday (10 million) to this one, posted 2020-07-004, 20:25 GMT +2, #10875.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter will have changed totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Saturday, 2020-07-004 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

֍* 11,372,202 *֍
+189,626 new C19 cases over the day before.
South Africa joins the other top nations as 4th nation with over +10,000 new C19 cases.
USA and Brasil did not set new +cases records, but India and South Africa most definitely did.
There are now 132 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
On 2020-07-005, India will surpass Russia in total cases and become rank 3 worldwide.
There have now been 532,684 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,455 of them were on this day.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +185,298 new C19 cases and +4,606 deaths per day.
1,111 Brazilian, 654 Mexican, 610 Indian & 217 US-American deaths were recorded on this day.
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

The entire month of June saw +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 38 out of the last 39 days, save 2020-05-031. The last 12 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day and twice this week already the world has seen more than +200,000 new daily cases. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +100,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past, +160,000 cases per day is the norm right now and soon enough, +200,000 per day is going to become the norm.

Consider this: On Saturday, 2020-06-027 at 20:11 GMT +2 (my time in Germany), we broke over the 10-million barrier. Between that Saturday and exactly 7 days later, to the minute, on Saturday, 2020-07-004 at 20:11 GMT +2 (my time in Germany), we added almost 1.3 million new C19 cases. IN. SEVEN. DAYS.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on this Saturday was one par with the two Saturdays before, but more than 3 and 4 Saturdays ago. It appears that we reached the death-toll-peak this week on Tuesday, 2020-06-030 (+5,658 deaths).

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +300 C19 cases and above):
​

The countries highlighted in green are potential future upperdecks countries that have caught my attention, at least for now.
The 2 countries at the top, highlighted in cheerleader pink, represent an important ranking shift that will happen today, 2020-07-005.

132-67-20-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 132 nations in the "thousand club", with Cyprus having crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-004.

Of those 132, 67 nations are currently in the "10,000 club".

20 of those 67 nations are at at 100,000 or more. Very likely by the end of this week, Quatar (currently at 99,183) will also cross over the 100,000 line.

Of those 20, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil.

Concerning ranks 3 and 4: Russia currently has 674,515 C19 cases, but India, with 673,904, is now only -611 cases away from Russia (the day before, it was -17,994, so India closed the distance by 17,383 on just one day) and now growing more than three times as many daily C19 cases as Russia. On 2020-06-028, 7 days ago, I opened an excel-tab for India in my calculations and did an analysis here: Excel-table for and 1st analysis of INDIA, posted 2020-06-028, 21:54 GMT +2, #10616. In the analysis, I predicted that within 8-10 days, India would surpass Russia in the overall rankings.

So, 7 of those 8-10 days have come and gone and it really looks as if India will indeed surpass Russia today, 2020-07-005 (which will be day no 8 ), exactly within my prediction. A litle more than one month ago, On 2020-06-002, Russia was 216,550 cases ahead of India. A lot can change in one month's time. India will very likely go over 1,000,000 C19 cases by the end of July, 2020.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

73-25-4​

73 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 82.

Of those 73, 25 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was a record-setting 27. Guatemala is in the +1,000 category for the second time and Israel for the 3rd time in a row. It appears that Israel is developing a serious COVID-19 problem.

Of those 25, for the first time ever, 4 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brazil, India and South Africa. Yesterday, I wrote:

Now we can wait and see if this is a one-time thing or if it will become a trend.

There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

85-37-10-1​

There are now 85 nations with 100 total deaths or more.

Of those 85, 37 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 37, there are now 10 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 10, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 132,318 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 24.83% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 24.96%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 64,365 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average is: +958.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



You can see the top 10 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.

There is a discrepancy in the total new deaths in the USA: worldometer says +254, my excel table says +217, which means that +37 deaths were added to the death total on 2020-07-003 or earlier. That has no influence on the grand total, just the way the daily + numbers are calculated.

10 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 12 the day before). 6 of those 10 countries are from the Americas.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 30 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. The USA has now performed 37.0 million tests (200,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 20.5 million tests (no change). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 3.3 million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-07-004, the world landed at 11.37 million total C19 cases.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. It is still logistical and not exponential, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. The problem is the huge increase in total cases, which will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise again, probably within the next 14-22 days. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. We've seen this pattern happen before.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average. Also, the USA is now being analyzed in 57 Units instead of 50 states.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter will have changed totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Saturday, 2020-07-004 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):
AN INDEPENDENCE DAY LIKE NO OTHER



**2,935,770**
+45,182 new C19 cases, 5th highest daily total
In a row: 13 days of +30,000 or more / 10 days of +40,000 or more / +50,000 streak is broken
Florida reports a record-crushing +11,458 new C19 infections on this day, would have been rank 4 worldwide.
There are now 132,318 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
217 of those deaths were recorded on this day, the smallest total since 2020-03-024!
Rolling 7 day average = 48,462 new infections & 595 deaths per day
1,260,405 people have recovered, 1,543,047 are still sick, of them, 16,017 in critical condition.
The recovered statistic is static: margin = -9.63% vs. active cases (was: -9.65%)​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The numbers speak volumes. The days of maybe +20,000 to +25,000 new C19 cases per day are gone. We are already now between +45,000 to +55,000 becoming the norm. This is a massive uptick, and it happened more quickly than people may think. Take a look for yourself at the rolling 7-day average and compare 2020-07-004 with the last weekly average, from last Sunday. Right now, we are averaging circa +48,461 cases per day. Why at least +45,000? Because there are now 9-12 dreadnaught states that are all reporting well over +1,000 fresh C19 infections every day, with no reduction in sight. Even on our slowest day, which should be on Sunday, we are very unlikely to go under +45,000 daily cases.

USA will not hit 3 million total C19 cases today, Sunday, 2020-07-005 but we will on Monday, 2020-07-006. Do you see the red arrow in the screenshot from 2020-06-005 to 2020-07-004. We travelled just a hair's breath away from 1,000,000 new C19 cases in the USA alone in one month's time. It took us more than 40 days to get from 1,000,000 to 2,000,000, from 2020-04-027 to 2020-06-007. Once we hit a steady average of +50,000 cases per day, then we will be travelling 1,000,000 new cases every 20 days, or 3,000,000 every two month.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on 2020-07-004, technically +217, is definitely down and is the smallest daily death count since 2020-03-024. Hallelujah. This is EXCEEDINGLY good news, but the real concern (and I have been writing this for more than a week now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 2.5-3.5 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:
​

57: 55-41-17-7​

55 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 49 of those 53 Units are US States. At 999 C19 cases, Hawaii, the only state in the Union to be under +1,000, will probably cross over this line in the next days, possibly even on 2020-07-005. However, at 311, the pacific Territories may take a considerably longer time to get there. Once those two cross over the line, then quite literally every Unit of the USA will be at +1,000 (or considerably more)

41 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. 38 of those 41 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and the US Military. Currently at 9,930 cases, Oregon is up next, perhaps even as early as today, 2020-07-005.

Of those 41, 17 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases, with Tennessee having crossed over the 50,000-line on Independence Day. All 17 of them are states.

Of those 17, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 7 of them are states. Pennsylvania is now just under 94,000 cases and slowly making its way toward the 100,000 line. The fact that Pennsylvania is reporting so few new cases in relation to other states is a very good sign and more evidence that the hotspots in Pennsylvania have died down. It should be noted that Florida has climbed from 100,000 to just under 200,000 cases in a very, very short time. Florida is advancing in cases far faster than at least 200 nations on Earth.

New daily cases:

​

57: 48-35-8​

48 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 44 of those 48 being states. The non-states with new reported cases: DC, the atlantic territories, Veterans Affairs and Federal Prisons.

35 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 33 of those 35 Units were states. The non-states were: atlantic Territories and Veterans Affairs. There are a number of states who tend to not publish such numbers at the weekend and then wait until Monday to send a somewhat larger number.

8 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases (the day before, it was 12), all 8 of them being states. There was a huge disparity between Florida, which set a statewide and nationwide record of +11,458 new C19 cases, and Texas, with less than half of that, at +5,382. Just three weeks ago, +5,382 was a horrifying number and now it looks, frankly, tame compared to what is happening in Florida. 6 of the 8 states at +1,000 or above are from the Deep South. The other 2 are from the West/Southwest.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same. The actual total is lower: +217, because worldometer added +37 deaths into the past. Either way, this low death toll is really the direction in which we want to head on the way to ZERO deaths.

57: 33-9-0​

33 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 29 of them are US States. The 4 non-states: DC, atlantic Territories, Veteran Affairs and Federal Prisons.

Of those 46, 9 reported deaths in double digits or more, from +10 to +27. 19 of those 20 Units are US States. The non-state: Veterans Affairs

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 45-25-2
​

45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 97, 94, 93, and 80 total deaths respectively, South Dakota, West Virginia, Idaho and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 45, 25 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 960 deaths, Rhode Island is inching up toward the +1,000-death line, it will likely happen within July, 2020. That being said, both South Carolina and Tennessee are experiencing more daily deaths than Rhode Island and may actually get there first.

Of those 25 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

​

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FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 132,318 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of WACO, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen. Right now, even with exceedingly few deaths in 2020-07-004, we are 2,323 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us just a little more than 3 days ahead of the projection.

-Stat

 

Things are not going well in Iran, which has reported +2,560 new cases (for a while, Iran had disappeared from the +1,000 list) and +163 deaths on 2020-07-005.

As a matter of fact, things seem to be moving faster in most all of the middle East.