Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Nevada so far with another huge day(+831 cases). While that's nothing compared to Florida's 10K. I don't think "opening up" too early, or the mask situation is the cause for this. Both Carolina's added 1K in cases today, Maryland/Virginia with +327/+489 respectfully.

An actual analysis of this new crop of cases is crucial, and I don't think it's as simple as closing down bars.

 

We aren't getting leadership on COVID from this administration. In fact, we're getting the message that we should refuse to follow recommendations of medical science from ALL sources.

So, I don't know what the heck you think that last sentence means.

Challenging authority isn't worth spit if all it means is refusing to listen to medial science - while accepting the partisan ravings of leadership that has made in crystal clear that he knows NOTHING about this particular type of medical problem.

Science requires skpeticism. However, simply rejecting the most thoroughly informed direction we have is NOT skepticism. Skepticism requires actual serious investigation that could lead to an accepted advance in understanding.

 

I don't see any basis for those opinions of yours.

You seem to be suggesting that the CDC, our pandemic research institutions (such as that of Fauci), WHO, Europe, China, etc., are wrong about the importance of wearing masks and social distncing.

What information do you have that all these groups are wrong?

 

Correlation=causation. It would be one thing if this were simply happening in the "open too early" States, but the uptick is happening across several sectors of our country. That means that applying a simplistic reason for the rise in cases, is a fool's errand. We need a deep analysis of this situation, ideally coming from the hospitals, etc that are testing these new patients and finding a common thread in this new batch.

 

OK, I'll pick up your argument where you left off. There are no "open too early" states and "didn't open too early" states. You know why? Because the borders to states only exist on paper as far as the virus is concerned and people can pretty much travel wherever they want. So, partying it up at a packed bar in Arizona and then getting in the car and visiting relatives in, say, Reno, Nevada means that the virus can spread and RE-spread anywhere. The Germans call this a "Teufelskreis". @gnoib

So, Bro, let's get back to the basics, and they are really very simple: any activity where a lot of people gather together (bars, beaches, sporting events, gyms, restaurants on the inside, etc) are going to give the virus to spread by being shed from one single asymptomatic person to who helluva lot of other people. It can just as easily happen again in New York State or in Utah.

Add to that events where people raise their voices, say, in bars and at sporting events, and the amount of aerosols that find their way into another person's past increases exponentially. So, forget thinking of states. That's quatsch. Think of behaviors. Even large groups could effectively meet, with enough physical distance, good quality masks, washing of hands, etc.

It's not where we are, geographically, socially, politically, religiously or sexually. It's what we do.

 

The fact that there are increasing cases in particular locations does NOT invalidate the recommendations of medical science.

There absolutely ARE those who are analyzing why these increases have happened.

There are no reports that would suggest that medical science is mistaken about how to limit the spread.

Your statements simply are not supported by findings of actual investigation.

 

That is just more election cycle Fake News.

In fact, Trump has followed the advise of "experts" like Fauci and Birx.

 

I've just met a friend who has a very close friend who is a nurse. Two months ago this nurse contracted the virus (confirmed). It was very mild and she "recovered" completely after a week and went back to work a week later and felt 100% fit and healthy. She now has the virus again and suffering much worse symptoms currently recovering at home. It's too early to say if she may need hospital treatment. Hmm, did the immunity cease?

 

Let's see her chart.

 

Spewed my coffee.

 

Its all about behavior patterns and re-openings.
If one looks at the pictures, people went to bars, night clubs and so in a pre-c19 fashion, same for beaches.

This not a surprise, the explosion of the new case figures.

 

Now did that friend meet her nurse friend during that proximity of time, because if so there's a possibility that you might've been exposed to the virus. How long ago did you meet and/or did you feel any symptoms?

 

Its my circle and I thought I had a good disguise.
Let me introduce myself.......................

The problem is failed openings and the behavior of the people.

The states with very moderate figures have very slow and careful openings.
Colorado is a example.

 

I don't know if she met face to face with her nurse friend.

 

INDIA
​

True to my word, I have now created an excel-table for the COVID-19 statistics for INDIA (see: my sig-file), going all the way back to 2020-02-027 (my start date).
The "India" tab is the 5th tab from the left, color-highlighted in yellow:





Here the complete table until this time today. Afterward, just a few short notes:






On 2020-02-027, India had all of 3 COVID-19 cases. On 2020-06-027, exactly four months later, India ended the day with 529,577 cases.

India went over the 100-case mark on Sunday, 2020-03-015, over the 1,000-case mark on Sunday, 2020-03-029 (exactly two weeks later), over the 10,000-case mark on Monday, 2020-04-013 (2 weeks and 1 day later) and then over the 100,000-mark on Monday, 2020-05-018 (exactly 5 weeks later).

The first death in India was reported on Thursday, 2020-03-012, shortly before I opened this thread.
India hit the 1,000 death mark on Tuesday, 2020-04-028 (a little more than 6 weeks later).
India went over the 10,000 death mark on Tuesday, 2020-06-016 (exactly 6 weeks later).

Until now, 2020-06-027 was the largest daily case haul for India: +20,131. Today, right now, India is at +19,619 and one more adjustment in the figures is likely. India will likely go over the + figure from the day before.

Easy, back of the envelope math: an average of +20,000 new cases per day = +100,000 new cases every five days. Let's assume that India lands at exactly 550,000 total cases today. That means's that it still has 450,000 cases to go before it hits the million mark. 450,000 / 20,000 = 22.5 days. So, on or about 2020-07-020, India will probably go over the million mark.

At the same time, Russia is currently at 634,437, but growing only around +7,100 cases per day. Russia is 365,563 cases away from the million mark.
365,563 / 7,100 = 51,5 days until Russia breaks over the million mark.

So, right now, India is behind Russia and at rank 4, but in the next 8-9 days, India is very likely to surpass Russia's total (right around 703,000-704,000, I suspect) and assume rank 3 for a good long time, unless of course China suddenly releases eye-popping numbers based on the 91.4 million tests they have now conducted.

-Stat

 

Ok, but there are patterns to what people do.

FL is hit hard, because of what FL does. They can not blame it on some other state.

 

Sure. There are patterns of behavior.

 

There is nothing that Fauci and CDC have communicated concerning COVID that T hasn't directly opposed

 

More Fake News.
Trump did stop flights from China while the "experts" were still insisting that the Wuhan Virus posed a minimal threat to North America, but most people now know that this was a good decision.

 

Yes, but then he announced cancelling flights from Europe in the second week of March. This caused thousands of Americans in Europe to board the next plane home. These people were not screened before departure nor upon arrival. The tv news showed the results. Thousands of people jam-packed like sardines for hours in baggage claim areas.

This was a very bad move and was likely what seeded much of the country as these people went to their home towns.

 

No he didn't. Over 300,000 people traveled between China and US after 1st Feb

 

What speaks to the seriousness of the virus are objective metrics like the overall case fatality rate, which the CDC estimates to be around 0.26%. That means 99.74% of people infected by the virus survive. And for those who do not survive, the large majority of them were probably going to die within months anyway. These are just cold, hard facts based on all the best available data. There is simply no escaping the fact that this virus is only an "epidemic" inside nursing homes. And there is simply no escaping the fact that nursing homes are where people go to live out the last months of their life. When a very old person dies, it's sad. But it's not tragic. And there was a time, not that long ago, where everyone in society understood and accepted that. There is nothing particularly noteworthy about old people dying. Trust me, it's going to happen to all of us eventually. The difference is that when it's time for me to die, I won't insist on holding the rest of the world hostage, putting their lives on pause indefinitely, because of some selfish and futile desire to extend my life for a few more weeks or months.

Simply not true.





Once again, the media and government are lying to everyone. And I am surprised at how readily you believe their lies given your admirable skepticism in the past. What happened? Did you suddenly forget that the media and the government are gigantic liars who lie constantly?

Being 65 and older, in and of itself, is not a serious risk factor. Being 75 or older, and having severe underlying health problems, are serious risk factors. But for that demographic, their mere existence is a serious risk factor. It seems that over the past few months, society has forgotten that death is inevitable. And that the older you get, the closer you are to death. Apparently, pointing this fact out makes you a bad person.

Concerts, sporting events and other social activities are what make life worth living. You seem only to be concerned with preserving mere biological life. But humans are social animals who derive meaning and happiness from socialization. It's also necessary to their health and mental well-being. More importantly, there is no reason to believe that suspending large scale socialization does anything to protect the most vulnerable members of society. The people most likely to die from COVID are not attending concerts and sporting events, they're bed-ridden inside nursing homes. Ruining society for the rest of us does virtually nothing to protect them.

 

No, it's just basic biology. Virtually all viruses are seasonal in nature. There is zero reason to believe this virus is any exception to that.

 

It takes people 2 or 3 weeks to die. It will start up in about a week.