Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    First, I would like to say that I am literally living in the middle of a huge flashpoint for the virus, in North-Rhein Westfalia in Germany. These are very strange times for us all. The COVID-19 catastrophe that is unfurling before our very eyes is changing my life, the life of my family, my friends, my associates, my acquaintances. It is horror pure right now.

    For those who might want access to more than one tracking source, here some links, some of which you may be aware, some of which may be new to you.

    First, perhaps a little less known, but actually the most accurate and up to date of all:

    Worldmeters - Corona Virus

    This link is the better known link (the two sites collaborate with each other):

    John Hopkins Corona tracking site

    Coronavirus numbers by state (this is an online excel table)

    Berliner Morgenpost interactive map and tracking data - for Germany, Europe and the World

    It should be said that a great many people are working their tail-ends off to make sure that the world knows exactly what is going on and where it is happening. These people have no political agenda and are there to help fight this scourge in the way that they can, namely, crunching the numbers and making sure that they get it right. A number of these people are schooled in issues like epidemics and look for key factors that may or may not indicate that a wave of sickness is going to happen, and more than that, it possible, where it is going to happen.

    Just to get a feel for this, I started tracking the numbers, using Worldmeters, starting on February 27, 2020, HERE on Twitter. On February 27th, Germany had just jumped from 2 confirmed infections to 17.

    Here is where we were worldwide on February 27, 2020, at 04:10 EDT (09:10 GMT +0):

    ERxat7wWoAAsM6U.png

    Mathematically, 2,808 deaths out of 82,411 confirmed infections = a mortality rate of 3.41%. Now, some claim that that rate may be far lower, that we don't know all of the real cases of infections, and I agree wholeheartedly with those people. Only, you can't make a statistic out of imaginary or invisible data. That really would be "fake news". One can only honestly work with what is actual, confirmed fact. And 32,970 cases were classified as recovered out of 82,411 = 40.01% recovery rate.

    So, remember that number: 82,411

    Here the stats from the last hours, 03/14/2020, 19:03 EDT or 23:03 GMT +0, 16 days later:

    2020-03-014 Corona 28.png

    Currently at 156,086 confirmed infections, tomorrow, at day 17 in my tracking, the number of confirmed cases will surely have doubled since I started tracking. This is absolutely horrifying. If you extrapolate that doubling every 16-17 days outward, then this is what the future looks like:

    Day 1 (02/27/2020): 82,411
    Day 17-18 (03/15/2020): 164,822 (assuming a perfect doubling, that number will be higher tomorrow)
    Day 35-36 (04/01/2020): 329,644
    Day 53 (04/18/2020): 659,288
    Day 70 (05/05/2020): 1,318,576
    Day 87 (05/22/2020): 2,637,152
    Day 104: (06/08/2020): 5,274,304
    Day 121: (06/23/2020): 10,548,608
    Day 138: (07/10/2020): 21,097,216
    Day 155: (07/27/2020): 42,194,432
    Day 172: (08/13/2020): 84,388,864
    Day 199: (08/30/2020): 168,777,728

    So, assuming that the tide does not ebb as the weather starts to get warm, and also assuming that the curve doesn't suddenly, horrifyingly exponentially pick-up and suddenly go much faster than this, and assuming a cure is not suddenly found (and any of these three scenarios could indeed happen, I am hoping for the last one), then with simple mathematical doubling, if conditions do not change, we will very likely have 170 million infected people across the planet shortly before Labor Day 2020. 3.6% of 170 million = circa 6 million deaths.

    So, that is not there to scare anyone. It is there to show that even the most modest growth of the infection numbers - if we don't curb the infection right here and here now - points to a huge amount of people getting the COVID-19 virus, which leave most of us alive, but which will kill a percentage of us. And another percentage of us will survive the disease but have suffered so much irreversable internal damage to key organs so that quality of life can no longer be assured.

    And certainly hurting efforts to curb the spread of the disease is the obvious fact that both Turkey and Russia are blatantly lying about the number of infections. There is no way in hell that Turkey, a land not far from Iran (which is suffering heavily from the Corona-Virus outbreak) has so incredibly few Corona-cases. Turkey, a country of over 100 million people, is claiming only 6 COVID-19 infections. That is bullshit. Russia, a nation with 144.5 million people, is claiming only 59 COVID-19 infections. That is also bullshit. And then there's the problem with the lack of adequate numbers of COVID-19 tests for the USA. With 327 million residents, 220 million of whom are adults 28 or older, the USA needs at least 200 million tests between now and Labor Day. The good sign is that China (lockdown without end) and South Korea (extremely creative, out-of-the box thinking) both appear to be getting the spread of the virus under control, whereas in Europe, the advance of the virus has just gone nuts. And South America has yet to really report what is going on. S. America is squarely behind the 8-ball right now.

    I will remind that a deadly virus knows no political boundaries, no geographical boundaries no political affiliations, no creeds, no genders, no races, no sexualities, no righteousness, no criminalities. It only looks for a host to infect, in this case, human beings. Anyone who tries to attach politics to this is being, imo, an utter fool.

    From the same site that posted the world numbers, here a breakdown by the nations with the highest numbers of infected:

    2020-03-014 Corona 28a.png

    For the second day in a row, Italy has posted a record number of horrifying deaths. Yesterday, it was 250, today it is 175. Those 435 deaths account for 7.3% of all deaths since the Coronavirus was identified. I will post a great deal about Italy on Sunday.

    Now, to illustrate how awfully fast the virus can spread, regardless how many precautions people take, here are three graphics from the Berliner Morgenpost concerning GERMANY, from 02/25, 03/10 and 03/14:
    2020-03-014 Corona 29 Morgenpost 02-26 16 Fälle.png 2020-03-014 Corona 29 Morgenpost 03-10 1565 Fälle.png 2020-03-014 Corona 29 Morgenpost 03-14 4525 Fälle.png


    On 02/25/2020, there were 16 Corona infections and 0 deaths in Germany.
    On 03/10/2020 (14 days later), there were 1,565 infections and 2 deaths..
    Just four days later, on 03/14/2020, there are 4,525 and 8 deaths (I am reading in the German press that a 9th death has just occured)
    That's a 283-fold jump in reported infections in 18 days, and an almost 3-fold jump in just the last four days. That is, frankly, terrifying.
    One thing that is separating Germany from most all other nations is the extremely low number of deaths. That being said, only 46 cases have been cleared as totally recovered, so there are a lot of sick people in Germany right now.

    Now, the maps above show the infections per Province, with the size of the red circle showing the intensity of the infections.

    Here is a map of Germany by "Landkreis" (essentially, by county), as of today:

    2020-03-014 Corona 28 Deutsche Landkreise.png

    Red = confirmed cases
    Yellow = especially hard hit region. That one county is "Heinsberg", where the first community spread was reported in Germany.

    Here, as an animated .gif, a good illustration of the spead of the disease from 02/27 to 03/12 (will surely be updated soon):

    COVID-19_spread_in_Germany_(as_of_12_March_2020).gif


    What is happening in Germany is very, very likely to happen in the USA as well. Within just 16 days there have been reported and confirmed infections in almost every county in Germany. Within one month it can be that all (circa) 3,200 US counties will also have infections.

    People need to understand that once enough people are infected, it's practically impossible to avoid infection.

    I would like to make a point that people are not talking about yet, but it has occured to me that the lion's share of infections in Germany, in NRW, are happening in the industrial regions of the province, called the "Ruhrgebiet". And in North Italy, where the Virus is killing people like crazy in Lombardy and in Piemont, to a lesser degree in Veneto and Trentino, this is all the major industrial zone of Italy, especially Lombardi. In Spain, the Virus has hit hardest in Madrid but also in Catalonia, which is the industrial engine of that country, considered one of the 4 major industrial engines of Europe: Lombardy in Italy, Catalonia in Spain, Baden-Württemberg and Nord-Rhein-Westfalen in Germany and Rhone-Alpes in France (right across from Piemont in Italy), also Grand-Etes (right across from North-Rhein-Westfalia in Germany). Speaking of France, virtually every county (Departement) in that country is reporting the disease:

    2020-03-014 Corona 28d - Frankreich.png


    If in the future we do find a link between the disease and industrial regions, then keep an eye on the industrial "Midwest" of the USA (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, parts of Minnesota, parts of Kentucky)

    On Sunday, I will write a great deal about Italy and COVID-19, but as you can see, Europe has a massive problem and the USA is at best 14 days away from the same kind of scenario.

    May ad-shem be with all of us. We are going to need it.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2020
  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Update:

    I would like to note that just in the time it took for me to write this OP (it took about 2 hours to do it), the number of infected people in the USA has risen from 2,499 to 2,836, a jump of +337 infections in the USA.

    2020-03-014 Corona 28d USA update.png
     
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  3. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for posting. Wow. Sobering Stats.

    If this Virus doesn't abate by the Summer, this situation will last until a vaccine is invented.

    Imagine if this went on for 18 More months.

    This is happening on Trump's Watch.

    The buck stops with Trump.

    Thanks alot, Trump! #MAGA

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Thank you for taking time to put that together.

    The number of U.S. cases spiking this week isn't surprising, since we only got millions of tests distributed during the past 6 days. We'll have to see where it goes from here.

    What is your theory about industrial areas getting hit hardest, or is that just observation and perhaps coincidental?
     
  5. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I can appreciate that. Good luck to us all!
     
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  6. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Thank you stat. I always appreciate your attention to detail and willingness to delve into the minutiae and I think it is very much needed in these trying times.

    You mention the goal that politics play no role, but unfortunately that is being driven by the political leadership in the States. A full 2/3rds of Republicans give that the media coverage is being overhyped where only 31% and 34% of Democrats and Independents, respectively, agree.

    Has the German political leadership fully emphasized the dangers of this virus? Are there are any distinctions of willingness to consider the situation severe, based political alignment, in your country or elsewhere?
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't even call it a theory, just a verifiable observation that is slowing forming into an idea. Yes, more people tend to lie in industrial areas, but those areas are not necesarily the largest cities in a country. NRW in Germany is being hit very hard and yet, in Berlin, the capital city of the BRD since 1999, with 5-6 million people in the city on any given day, there are far fewer cases.

    So, perhaps there is something in industrial zones that attacts the virus. Is just an idea, not a theory, and I cannot back it up scientifically, yet.

    Germany has been on top of this since the beginning. The mental-alarms have been wailing since February and Germany has been preparing for this. I think this is the reason why there are so few dead, at least for now. BTW, I'm an American working in Germany, so it's not my country, I'm just a welcome guest here.

    Gotta say, the German penchant for cleanliness is probably helping here. And people are very willing to go into self-quarantäne, even if it means financial hardship. Police/Fire/Rescue are all working extra shifts, the German train system is considering cancelling all trains in order to slow the virus. Hell, bars are closing even in Cologne, which I would never have considered possible. But fact is, COVID-19 is overall.

    BTW, very nice to hear from you. Hope you are well and prospering.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Yes. Regardless of Party or affiliation, the German political hierarchy is 100% unified on this and more than that, they are more than willing to listen to and follow the advice of top scientists and top medical experts. Chancellor Merkel has degrees in Biology, her background is scientific. This is why she was able to, in a very calm, collected, deadly serious fashion, expain to the German people that the likelihood that up to 70% of the population will be infected and her comment is immediately accepted and taken seriously by Germans and guests like myself living in Germany. No one doubts that her prognostication is a real possiblity and absolutely no one is thinking that she has any political motives. And no one has ever accused Merkel of lying, ever. It's just not who she is.

    As far as the utterly FUBAR politics in the USA at current time, I can only say: the more incompetent the leadership, the more people will die when perhaps they could have been saved. This applies not only nationally, but also at the state level. Most disturbing of all is the appearance that availablity of COVID-19 tests is based on a secret 2-tier system. How else can a complete basketball team be immediately tested as soon as just one player is diagnosed as positive, when there are 100s of thousands of people, normal Americans, whose doctors are screaming that their patients need a test, only to get a clear NO from the CDC? How in the hell is that going to help anyone? I mean, that is just plain old sad.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
  9. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    This virus is just beginning. it can travel through the air and stay alive
    It can stay on items for several days

    it has really only hit the USA in Seattle and NYC
    So far
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
  10. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    it has spiked the most in NYC and Seattle
     
  11. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    Most Americans are fat Slobs , so I believe their mortality rates will be very high
     
  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I don't know how it is being handled in the USA, but even pizza-delivery services in Germany, in this case, an American chain in Germany, are taking precautions because of COVID-19. I'll translate part of this, but here the announcement from Dominos Pizza in Germany:

    Deine Gesundheit & Sicherheit sind uns wichtig!
    Falls der Inhalt unvollständig angezeigt wird, bitte hier die Online-Version ansehen.



    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] DEIN STORE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Here is written that as of now, Dominos is delivering without any body-contact, that a distance of 2 meters (roughly 6 feet) must be kept.

    The most important part is under "Gesundheit und Sicherheit unserer Mitarbeiter"

    "Health and security of our employees".

    In this part, Dominos reminds that it's a business, that they are not health experts, but are willing to accept and follow the rules set forth by the Robert Koch Institute, which is essentially the Geman pendant to our CDC in the USA. They also promise that their employees will confirm before the beginning of their shift that they have not exhibited any signs of the virus. They also indicate that all work surfaces at every Dominos will be cleaned with a hygienic/disinfectant cleaner once an hour and that Disinfectant units (likely a hand gel, I assume) have been installed in every Dominos.

    Dear Mods - I know there is a lot of German in there, but I don't have the time to translate every word. I think most of you will get the idea, or you can feel free to copy some of the text and use Google translator.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Until now, that is very correct. But practically none of the industrial midwest has even been tested.
     
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  14. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    my city of Vegas has banned all buffets at any major hotel
     
  15. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    What scares me the most

    Is the recovery time is terrifying
     
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  16. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    Morbidity rate is insane
     
  17. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Industrial areas tend to have a lot of traffic in and out of them and have large work forces which share lunch rooms and bathroom facilities.
     
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Acutally, since only 47% of cases have been classified as recoveries of some sort but no time frame as been indicated, we cannot even know how long the healing period will be, a factor that will take it's toll in just so many ways.
     
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  19. StillBlue

    StillBlue Well-Known Member

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    A thought occured to me. Germany has a median age of 9 years older than the US but 1/10th the fatality rate. Clearly Germany are getting people care much faster. Perhaps it's your policy of universal insurance?
     
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely, and I fear that it will be worse at the crossing of our nations two most travelled highways: I-70 and I-75, which intersect at the hub in Dayton, OH.
    This is also exactly why Dayton was identified as the flashpoint in the opiod crisis. And those two highways cut a huge swath through: the industrial Midwest.
     
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  21. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    USA excels in speciality doctors !
    For basic general doctors we’re one of the worst in the 1st world
     
  22. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Banned

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    I have seen 4 different general doctors in 4 yrs and all were useless and more like used car salesmen
     
  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Not really sure. At this point right now, I don't think anyone cares. Guaranteed, in Germany, whether you have your Krankenkasse-Karte (Health Insurance card) on your person or not, you will be treated and medical personnel will fight like hell to save your life. I would venture to say that the use of therapeutics earlier is helping.
    That being said, and I also indicated this in the OP, there is only a very small number of people who have been declared as fully recovered, so it is possible that a day will come when a huge number of people die all at once in Germany, a day I hope and pray will not happen.

    But yes, the BRD has uni-health care, but it's not Bernie's vision of Medicare for all. It's a free-will system of a combination of state covered insurance, private insurance, and HMOs that are truly a blend of both. By free-will, I mean that you can decide whether you want a private HMO or if you want to go with a state HMO. There are lots of HMOs that specialize in certain professions, for instance, bakers or bricklayers or musicians or real-estate agents, and through their policies, with very different prices and co-pays for certain injuries, they can keep prices down.

    Based on the generational compact, all are covered and all who can pay in must pay in. It has been in place since the 1880s and is the oldest functioning health care systems in the entire world, also one of the very few things allowed to stay in place after the Hitler-regime was crushed to smithereens in the 1940s.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  24. StillBlue

    StillBlue Well-Known Member

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    Yours is more like the system proposed by former candidate Pete who wanted to let everyone opt in to medicare at low cost or keep their private plans. You however require all to carry insurance of one form or another.
     
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  25. StillBlue

    StillBlue Well-Known Member

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    Yours is more like the system proposed by former candidate Pete who wanted to let everyone opt in to medicare at low cost or keep their private plans. You however require all to carry insurance of one form or another.
     

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