Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Overcrowding in the ministry flats too, I’ve heard. People in ministry flats are often from a disadvantaged sector.

 

In which case you know more than I do because it was almost 2 decades ago that I was last there and only for a weekend stopover so I did not see much of it at all.

 

I will keep her in my thoughts, Ad!

 

Actual deaths over normal expected deaths (based upon prior data) is running about 23% higher than the reported Covid deaths in the USA.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

That means that the current 134k deaths is probably only 80% of those who have died as a result of the Pandemic.

 

So my PA at 95K is on track to be another 100K State, but you'll continue to be stunned at Philadelphia's relative success. It's more like mini spots are appearing across the rest of the State instead. Of the 799 new cases, only 91 came from Philadelphia. I don't need to tell you that means that the other 708 cases came elsewhere. Alleghany(204) once again was a key contributor.

 

HERE the analysis for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

Reminder: New 7-day rolling average system in effect, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

During the run of the day on 2020-07-007 and early on 2020-07-008 there were some other important analysis:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-006, posted 2020-07-007, 12:55 GMT +2, #10959.
Large case-jump in Cameroun, posted 2020-07-007, 13:38 GMT +2, #10961.
Cases on the rise in the Middle-East, posted 2020-07-007, 21:28 GMT +2, #10993.
South Africa reports more than +10,000 C19 cases, posted 2020-07-008, 00:08 GMT +2 #11012.
New death estimate for the USA on CNN matches my extrapolation, posted 2020-07-008, 00:22 GMT +2, #11013.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter will have changed totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Tuesday, 2020-07-007 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

֍* 11,942,118 *֍
+209,122 new C19 cases over the day before, 2nd highest total to-date.
There are now 136 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
On 2020-07-008, the world will go over 12 million total COVID-19 cases, in record-time.
There have now been 545,655 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,518 of them were on this day.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +194,909 new C19 cases and +4,638 deaths per day.
1,332 Brazilian, 993 US-American, 480 Mexican & 479 Indian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

The last 15 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day and twice the week before, the world went more than +200,000 new daily cases, a phenomenon I expect will happen again in this week. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +100,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past, +175,000 cases or more per day (see: rolling average) is the norm right now and soon enough, +200,000 per day will the norm. You can see that the rolling 1-day average of +194,909 is already far closer to +200,000 than to +175,000.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on this Tuesday is in line with the last 2 Tuesdays before.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

The countries at the bottom, highlighted in green, have caught my interest as potential "future upperdecks" countries.

136-68-21-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 136 nations in the "thousand club".

Of those 136, 68 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

21 of those 68 nations are at at 100,000 or more

Of those 21, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil.

India, which surpassed Russia 2 days before, is already more than +49,000 cases ahead of Russia. Life comes at you fast.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

74-24-4​

74 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 73.

Of those 70, 24 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 23.

Of those 23, 4 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brasil, India, and for the second time now, South Africa. The day before, it was 3.

There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly. But there are also signs that the Middle-East may become a true hotspot for COVID-19.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

85-38-18-11-1​

There are now 85 nations with 100 total deaths or more.

Of those 85, 38 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, with Guatemala having crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-007.

**NEW:** Of those 38, 18 have over +5,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 18, there are now 11 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 11, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 133,972 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 24.55% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 24.71%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 66,868 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average is: +879.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

You can see the top 11 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.

11 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 9 the day before). 5 of those 11 countries are from the Americas. .

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

30 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece and of them, 5 have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, India and the UK. The UK kind of slipped over the 10,000,000-line without much ado. Uhm, sorry....

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here.

The USA has now performed 38.9 million tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 21.5 million tests (200,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has now performed 4.3 million such tests for days now.

Facit: on 2020-07-006, the world landed at 11.94 million total C19 cases, only 5 days after breaking over the 11 million mark. Today, 2020-07-008, the world will go over 12 million C19 cases, and relatively early in the day, I suspect, by 16:00 GMT +2 (10:00 EDT) at the latest.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. The huge increase in total cases will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise again, probably within the next 11-19 days. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. We've seen this pattern happen before.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average. Also, the USA is now being analyzed in 57 Units instead of 50 states.

There was one important interim report on 2020-07-007 pertinent to my homeland:
New death estimate on CNN for the USA matches my extrapolation, posted 2020-07-008, 00:22 GMT +2, #11013.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter will have changed totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of or into the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Tuesday, 2020-07-007 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

***3,097,084*** (25.93% of worldwide total)
+56,251 new COVID-19 cases, 3nd highest daily total to-date. (26.90% of worldwide new cases)
In a row: 16 days of +30,000 or more / 13 days of +40,000 or more.
Fifth instance of +50,000 or more, but not in a row.
There are now 133,972 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (24.55% of worldwide total deaths).
993 of them were recorded on this day (18.00% of worldwide daily deaths).
Two states reported more than +100 deaths for the first time in a long time, a bad sign.
Rolling 7 day average = 52,747 new infections & 550 deaths per day.
1,354,863 people have recovered, 1,608,249 are still sick, 15,371 of them are in critical condition.
The recovered statistic is improving: margin = -8.18% vs. active cases (was: -8.49%).​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

It's going to be quite a week in the USA, to put it mildly. We just STARTED the week on Monday with the highest daily case-load ever, and that on a Monday after a holiday weekend. On Tuesday, we just saw the 3nd highest case load until now, and +10,000 more than the Tuesday before. You can see that the rolling average already shows more than +52,000 cases a day, which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in slightly less than 20 days each time, if we maintain the current rate.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on 2020-07-007, +993, reflects an UPTICK in Tuesday deaths in the USA over 2 and three weeks ago but is LESS than the Tuesday directly before. The real concern (and I have been writing this for more than a week now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 2-3 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA. Why 2-3 weeks? Because daily deaths are a lagging indicator.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:
​

57: 56-47-42-17-9​

56 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 50 of those 56 Units are US States. However, at 334 and the only Unit under the 1,000-line, the Pacific Territories may take a while to get there.

**NEW**: 47 out of 57 UNITS have over 5,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 42 of those 47 Units are US States. I've opened up +5,000 as a rubrik since every Unit in the nation except one has cleared the +1,000 mark.

42 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. 39 of those 42 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and the US Military. Puerto Rico and Idaho are probably up next to cross over the 10,000-line.

Of those 42, 17 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 17 of them are states. Indiana, Connecticut and South Carolina are all less than 4,000 cases from the 50,000-line and all approaching it at varying speeds.

Of those 17, 9 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases, with Georgia having crossed over the 100,000-line on 2020-07-007.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:

​

57: 56-41-9​

56 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 50 of those 55 being states. The only non-state to not report new cases: the US Military.

41 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 38 of those 41 Units were states. The non-states were: Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs and Federal Prisons.

9 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases (the day before, it was 10), 9 of those 9 being states. This time, with just over +9,000 cases, Texas led the day, followed by California, Florida and Arizona. The shocker on the list is the state of Missouri, which just appeared on this list for the very first time.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 43-25-2​

43 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 41 of them are US States. The 2 non-states: Veteran Affairs, Atlantic Territories

Of those 43, 25 reported deaths in double digits or more, from +11 to +118. 24 of those of those 25 Units are US States. The non-state: veterans affairs.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 2 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths: California and Arizona. This is the first time in a long time that two states have reported +100 or more daily deaths. A harbinger of things to come? Wait and see.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 45-25-2
​

45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 98, 95, 94, and 84 total deaths respectively, South Dakota, West Virginia, Idaho and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 45, 25 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 969 deaths, Rhode Island is inching up toward the +1,000-death line, it will likely happen within July, 2020.

Of those 25 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 133,972 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of COLUMBIA, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 1,877 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us just a little more than 2.5 days ahead of the projection. This value is higher than the corresponding number from the corresponding Tuesday in June, shortly after the extrapolation began (2020-06-009, 1,653 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation at that time).

-Stat

 

As we know there have been significant INCREASES in New Cases in FL, TX and AZ and as a result bars have subsequently been closed again.

On the 4th of July the UK decided to reopen their pubs.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/england-pubs-reopening-police-gbr-intl/index.html

Let's keep an eye on New Cases in the UK for the next month and see what happens.

 

LOL!!!

 

In Bagdad???

 

TWELVE MILLION CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES WORLDWIDE​

So, again, this happened on 2020-07-003 at 09:37 GMT +2 / 03:37 EDT:



In this morning's worldwide analysis for 2020-07-007, I wrote the following:

And this just happened on 2020-07-008, between 16:43-16:47 GMT +2 / between 10:43-10:47 EDT:







So, we went from 11 million to 12 million COVID-19 cases in 5 days, 7 hours and 10 minutes. Yeah, I was off by 47 minutes.... dock my pay!!!

Here the excel table:



That is of course, not the final total for today. I suspect we will once again go over +200,000 cases and land at 12,144,000 or so....

-Stat

 

Oh, oh.
Another up day in the US. We are working up to 10% positives. That would be 1000 dead a day range.

LA has the potential to be another New York.

And of course Houston.

Of course, as pointed out at the task force presser, Arizona has flattened out. Unfortunately it's at 25% positives.

Florida...

And Georgia. The original early bird.


Happiness is being done with quarantine.

 

Your test was negative, I presume?

 

HERE the analysis for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

Reminder: New 7-day rolling average system in effect, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

During the run of the day on 2020-07-008 there were some other important analysis:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-007, posted 2020-07-008, 10:51 GMT +2, #11032.
The world goes over 12 million C19 cases, posted 2020-07-008, 16:55 GMT +2 , #11036.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter will have changed totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-07-008 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

֍** 12,155,602 **֍
+213,484 new C19 cases over the day before, 2nd highest total to-date.
There are 180 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases, 136 of them with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases.
On 2020-07-008, the world went over 12 million total COVID-19 cases, in record-time.
Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brasil, 2nd worst hotspot in the world, has tested positive for COVID-19.
There have now been 551,192 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,537 of them were on this day.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +194,357 new C19 cases and +4,733 deaths per day.
1,187 Brazilian, 895 Mexican, 890 US-American, 491 Indian & 181 Peruvian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The last 16 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day and twice the week before and the world has now seen more than +200,000 new daily cases 4 times, a number I expect will continue. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +100,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past, +175,000 cases or more per day (see: rolling average) is the norm right now and soon enough, +200,000 per day will the norm. You can see that the rolling 1-day average of +194,357 is already far closer to +200,000 than to +175,000.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on this Wednesday surpassed all 4 Wednesdays before.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

136-69-37-21-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are 136 nations in the "thousand club".

Of those 136, 69 nations are now in the "10,000 club", with Sudan having crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-008.

*NEW*: of those 69 nations, 37 are now in the "50,000 club".

21 of those 37 nations are at at 100,000 or more

Of those 21, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil.

India, which surpassed Russia 3 days before, is already more than +68,000 cases ahead of Russia. Life comes at you fast. That being said, Russia just crossed over 700,000 total C19 cases, no small change, indeed.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

75-38-24-4​

75 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 74.

*NEW*: of those 75 nations, 38 had +500 or more cases.

Of those 38, 24 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 24.

Of those 24, 3 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brasil& India. The day before, it was 3.

There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly. But there are also signs that the Middle-East may become a true hotspot for COVID-19.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

86-38-18-11-1​

There are now 86 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Kyrgyzstan crossing over the 100-line on 2020-07-008.

Of those 85, 38 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 38, 18 have over +5,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 18, there are now 11 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 11, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 134,862 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 24.47% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 24.55%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 68,055 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average is: +1,049.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

You can see the top 11 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.

11 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 6 of those 11 countries are from the Americas. .

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

30 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece and of them, 5 have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, India and the UK.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here.

The USA has now performed 39.5 million tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 21.8 million tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has now performed 4.4 million such tests for days now. It should also be noted that the President of Brasil, Jair Messias Bolsonaro, announced on 2020-07-008 that he has tested positive for COVID-19.

Facit: on 2020-07-008, the world landed at 12.16 million total C19 cases, jumping from 11 to 12 million cases in only 5 days, 7 hours and 10 minutes.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. The huge increase in total cases will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise again, probably within the next 10-18 days. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. We've seen this pattern happen before.


-Stat

 

What happened in Tulsa, OK almost 3 weeks ago?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-tulsa-rally-covid-19-surge_n_5f063886c5b67a80bc024826

How much more EVIDENCE is needed before the message sinks in as to what causes the virus to spread?

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average. Also, the USA is now being analyzed in 57 Units instead of 50 states.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter adjusted totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of or into the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-07-008 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):
BREAKING THE +60,000 BARRIER

***3,158,932*** (25.99% of worldwide total)
+61,848 new COVID-19 cases, by far the highest daily total to-date. (28.99% of worldwide new cases)
In a row: 14 days of +40,000 or more.
5th instance of +50,000 or more, but not in a row. 1st instance of +60,000 or more.
There are now 134,864 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (24.47% of worldwide total deaths).
890 of them were recorded on this day (16.07% of worldwide daily deaths).
Two states reported more than +100 deaths for the second time in a row, a bad sign.
Rolling 7 day average = 54,140 new infections & 581 deaths per day.
1,392,679 people have recovered, 1,631,391 are still sick, 15,457 of them are in critical condition.
The recovered statistic is improving: margin = -7.55% vs. active cases (was: -8.18%).​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

It's shaping up to be quite a week in the USA, to put it mildly. We STARTED the week on Monday with the highest daily case-load at that time, and that on a Monday after a holiday weekend. Both Monday an Tuesday saw more than +50,000 new C19 cases, apiece. On Wednesday, we blew past the +60,000 barrier. You can see that the rolling average already shows more than +54,000 cases a day, which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in slightly less than 19 days each time, if we maintain the current rate. What remains to be seen is whether Wednesday, Thursday or even Friday of this week will end up being the peak day for the week - this phenomenon has varied somewhat from week to week.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on this day, +890, reflects an UPTICK in Wednesday deaths in the USA over the last 3 Wednesdays but is LESS than the 4th Wednesday before.

The real concern (and I have been writing this for more than a week now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 1.5-2.5 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA. Why 2-3 weeks? Because daily deaths are a lagging indicator.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:
​

57: 56-47-42-17-9​

56 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 50 of those 56 Units are US States. However, at 341 and the only Unit under the 1,000-line, the Pacific Territories may take a while to get there.

47 out of 57 UNITS have over 5,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 42 of those 47 Units are US States. I've opened up +5,000 as a rubrik since every Unit in the nation except one has cleared the +1,000 mark.

42 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. 39 of those 42 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and the US Military. Puerto Rico and Idaho are probably up next to cross over the 10,000-line.

Of those 42, 17 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 17 of them are states. Indiana, Connecticut and South Carolina are all less than 3,000 cases from the 50,000-line and all approaching it at varying speeds.

Of those 17, 9 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. At just under 97,000 cases, Pennsylvania is next up to cross over the line.

Note: I adjusted the zoom-in rate down from 63% to 60%, allowing me to get more information on each graphic. Since I am pretty much ignoring the cruise ships until they finally change their stats, I can now get in all 57 units into 2 screenshots instead of 1.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:

​

57: 57-41-11​

57 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 50 of those 57 being states.

41 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 38 of those 41 Units were states. The non-states were: Veterans Affairs, US Military and Federal Prisons.

11 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases (the day before, it was 9), all 11 of them being states. This time, with just under +10,200 cases, Texas led the day, followed by Florida, California, Arizona and Georgia. Ohio is back on the 1,000 list, for the 3rd time in less than two week. Hmmmmmm....

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 46-21-2​

46 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 42 of them are US States. The 4 non-states: DC, Veteran Affairs, Atlantic Territories and the Navajo Nations.

21 of 57 Units reported deaths in double digits or more, from +11 to +118. 20 of those of those 21 Units are US States. The non-state: Veterans Affairs.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 2 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths: California and Texas. This is the second time in a row and since a very long time that two states have reported +100 or more daily deaths. A harbinger of things to come? Wait and see.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 45-25-2
​

45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 98, 98, 94, and 84 total deaths respectively, Idaho, South Dakota, West Virginia, and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker.

25 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 971 deaths, Rhode Island is inching up toward the +1,000-death line, it will likely happen within July, 2020.

Out of all 57 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 134,862 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of OLATHE, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 2,067 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us just under 3 days ahead of the projection. This value is higher than the corresponding number from the corresponding Tuesday in June, shortly after the extrapolation began (2020-06-010, 1,935 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation at that time).

-Stat

 

KEY-DATES to look for in the future, based on current statistics (simple extrapolation):

2020-07-016 (Brasil set to go over 2 million)
2020-07-018 (India set to go over 1 million)
2020-07-024 (USA set to go over 4 million)
2020-08-023 (Russia set to go over 1 million)​

You can see the complete analyses for the worldwide and USA COVID-19 statistics for 2020-07-008 in the two postings above. Here again the Excel-tables for those two plus Brasil, India & Russia. I've extrapolated the dates when the four nations will hit the next million-mark.

Worldwide:​

USA:​

You can see that from 2020-06-008 (Wednesday) through 2020-07-006 (Tuesday) a time-span of 28 days, the USA has gone from 2 million to 3 million cases. At the current average of +54,140 cases per day: 4,000,000 - 3,158,932 = 841,068. 283,804 / 54,140 = 15.55 days. So, if the USA maintains this tempo, then in 16 days, on 2020-07-024, the USA will go over the 4 million mark.

Brasil:​

You can see that from 2020-06-019 (Friday) through 2020-07-008 (Wednesday) a time-span of 19 days, Brasil has gone from 1 million to 1.7 million cases. At the current average of +37,547 cases per day: 2,000,000 - 1,716,196 = 283,804. 283,804 / 37,547 = 7.56 days. So, if Brasil maintains this tempo, then in 8 days, on 2020-07-016, Brasil will go over the 2 million mark.

India:​

You can see that India has advanced +400,000 C19 cases from 2020-06-012 (Friday) through 2020-07-008 (Wednesday), a time span of 26 days. At the current average of +23,405 (this is likely to rise again, but let's take it as a baseline), then: 1,000,000 - 769,052 = 230,948. 230,948 / 23,405 = 9.88 days.So, if India maintains this tempo, then in 10 days, on 2020-07-018, India will go over the 1 million mark and be the third nation to record more than 1 million C19 infections.

Russia:​

You can see that Russia has advanced +200,000 C19 cases from 2020-06-011 (Thursday) through 2020-07-008, a time span of 27 days. At the current average of +6,627 (this may fall some, but let's take it as a baseline), then: 1,000,000 - 700,792 = 299,208. 299,208 / 6,627 = 45.15 days.So, if Russia maintains this tempo, then in 46 days, on 2020-08-023, Russia will go over the 1 million mark and be the fourth nation to record more than 1 million C19 infections.

I will remind that this is easy, back-of-the-envelope math and is based on the presumption that the current daily new case values remain stabile. But as you can see, in the case of 3 of these 4 dreadnaught nations, the average values have risen, whereas in the case of Russia, the average is slowing down.

Still, this should give us a good ballpark estimate of where these four countries will land next in terms of round 7-digit-numbers. It is entirely possible that both Brasil and India go over the next million marker on the same day.

-Stat

 

People need to read this. Every word of it:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-disorders-in-people-with-mild-covid-symptoms

The neurological side of this may end up being the most horrifying of all. It will take months just to get a good picture of what COVID-19 is doing to the human brain.

 

A tale of two days. 16:47 GMT +2 (10:47 EDT) yesterday:




Aaaaand......16:49 GMT +2 (10:46 EDT) today, exactly 24 hours and 2 minutes later:





That +221,863 cases in exactly 24 hours (and 2 minutes).

 

I didn't get tested. I was already 5 days down the road when I found out, so I just waited the other 9.

 

In the grand scheme of things, this statistic is rather insignificant, but I have been tracking the US Deaths vs EU over a while now. The US passed the EU on a per capita basis way back on May 4th.



But yesterday is the day that the US finally passed the EU in terms of total deaths.

 

Wow! And they have about 100 million more people than we do.

 

Almost 200 million more

 

The US state of Arizona has set a new record and just reported +4,057 new confirmed C19 infections and +75 new deaths.

Things have improved slightly in the US state of Florida, which has reported +8,935 new C19 cases (less than the end of last week, to be sure), but unfortunately, +119 new deaths, way up from +49 deaths yesterday.

The USA has advanced almost +25,000 cases today already (it's 13:20 on the East Coast of the USA), and that is with data from only 20 states plus DC. 30 more states have yet to report in, among them: New York, California, Texas, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio.....