Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Sensing that this could possibly be a good moment for some humor, let's talk about proper usage of the English language. Imma gonna leave this right here (and then run and hide!):



Is it not amazing what lack of punctuation can do to an innocent sentence?

 

Another day in the 9's.

And right on time here come the increased deaths.

 

So there's an uptick everywhere, even the noreaster States are growing in cases now. This is certainly concerning.

 

HERE the analysis for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

Reminder: New 7-day rolling average system in effect, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

During the run of the day on 2020-07-009 there were some other important analysis:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-008, posted 2020-07-009, 10:18 GMT +2, #11041.
Extrapolations: top 4 countries (next million mark), posted 2020-07-009, 12:45 GMT +2, #11042.
+221,863 cases in exactly 24 hours, since 12 million mark, posted 2020-07-009, 16:52 GMT +2, #11045.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter will have changed totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-07-009 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

֍** 12,379,259 **֍
A record-breaking +223,657 new C19 cases over the day before, highest total to-date.
This was the 3rd straight day of +200,000 or more daily cases.
There are 184 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases, 138 of them with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 556,609 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,417 of them were on this day.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +200,691 new C19 cases and +4,767 deaths per day.
1,199 Brazilian, 960 US-American, 782 Mexican, 479 Indian & 221 Iranian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The last 17 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day and within those days, five times (non-consecutively) more than +200,000 new daily cases, a trend that I expect will continue. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +150,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past, +180,000 cases or more per day (see: rolling average) is the norm right now and soon enough, +200,000 per day will the norm. You can see that the rolling 7-day average of +200,961 is already over +200,000. Now it remains to be seen if it stays there. I suspect that our world will be in the +185,000 to +225,000 zone for a while.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on this Thursday surpassed all 4 Thursdays before. The daily deaths 7-day rolling average has been rising nominally every day since 2020-07-002.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +450 C19 cases and above):
​

138-69-37-21-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 138 nations in the "thousand club", with Montenegro and Uganda having crossed the 1,000-line on 2020-07-009.

Of those 138, 69 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

Of those 69 nations, 37 are now in the "50,000 club".

21 of those 37 nations are at at 100,000 or more

Of those 21, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil.

India, which surpassed Russia 4 days before, is already just under +88,000 cases ahead of Russia. Life comes at you fast. That being said, Russia now has 707,301 total C19 cases, no small change, indeed. Therefore, yesterday, I extrapolated when the USA, Brasil, India and Russia will likely cross over the next available "million" line. The link is at the top of this analysis, but here again that link:

Extrapolations: top 4 countries (next million mark), posted 2020-07-009, 12:45 GMT +2, #11042.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

74-41-24-4​

74 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 75.

41 countries had +500 or more cases. The day before, it was 38.

24 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 24.

And finally, 4 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brasil, India & South Africa. The day before, it was 3. This is the third time that South Africa has gone over the +10,000-line, non-consecutively, but this time, with +13,674, it is now far enough above +10,000 that shortly, it will be staying above that line for a good, long time, I predict. @Derideo_Te

The USA went over +60,000 new C19 cases for the second day in a row, far outstripping any other nation on Earth, including Brasil, which last month often surpassed the USA in daily cases and still surpasses the USA in daily deaths.

There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly. But there are also signs that the Middle-East may become a true hotspot for COVID-19.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

87-38-18-11-1​

There are now 87 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Bahrain crossing over the 100-line on 2020-07-009. The day before, there were 86.

Of those 87, 38 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 38, 18 have over +5,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 18, there are now 11 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 11, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 135,822 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 24.40% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 24.47%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 69,254 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average is: +857.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

You can see the top 11 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.

11 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 6 of those 11 countries are from the Americas. .

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

30 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece and of them, 5 have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK and India.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here.

The USA has now performed 40.2 million tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 22.1 million tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has now performed 4.5 million such tests. The positivity rate in Brasil, assuming they are being truthful in reporting the number of tests performed, is very high: 39.36%.

Facit: on 2020-07-009, the world landed just under 12.4 million total C19 cases, jumping from 12 to 12.4 million cases in all of TWO days.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. The huge increase in total cases will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise substantially, probably within the next 9-17 days. I'm already seeing evidence of a nominal average rise in worldwide deaths, it's been happening since 2020-07-002, one week ago.

-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average. Also, the USA is now being analyzed in 57 Units instead of 50 states.

There was one important interim analysis on 2020-07-009 pertinent to the USA:
Extrapolations: top 4 countries (next million mark), posted 2020-07-009, 12:45 GMT +2, #11042.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter adjusted totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of or into the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-07-009 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):
STAYING OVER +60,000 new C19 cases - THE NEW NORMAL?

***3,219,999*** (26.01% of worldwide total)
+61,067 new COVID-19 cases, the 2nd highest daily total to-date. (27.30% of worldwide new cases)
In a row: 15 days of +40,000 or more, 4 days of +50,000 or more, 2 days of +60,000 or more
There are now 135,822 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (24.40% of worldwide total deaths).
960 of them were recorded on this day (17.72% of worldwide daily deaths).
Four states reported more than +100 deaths, up from 2 states apiece the two days before.
Rolling 7 day average = 54,687 new infections & 620 deaths per day.
1,426,428 people have recovered, 1,657,749 are still sick, 15,645 of them are in critical condition.
The recovered statistic is improving: margin = -7.18% vs. active cases (was: -7.55%).​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

It's really quite a week in the USA, to put it mildly. We STARTED the week on Monday with the highest daily case-load at that time, and that on a Monday after a holiday weekend. Both Monday an Tuesday saw more than +50,000 new C19 cases, apiece. On Wednesday, we blew past the +60,000 barrier and on Thursday, likewise. You can see that the rolling average already shows more than +54,600 cases a day, which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in slightly less than 18.5 days each time, if we maintain the current rate. It appears that both Wednesday and Thursday were the peak days this week, with just ever so slightly less cases on Thursday but unfortunately, more deaths.

What remains to be seen is whether Friday of this week will be a blowout day or if the tide will recede somewhat - this phenomenon has varied somewhat from week to week.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on this day, +960, reflects an UPTICK in Thursday deaths in the USA over 3 of the last 4 Thursdays.

The real concern (and I have been writing this for almost two weeks now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 1.5-2.5 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA. Why 2-3 weeks? Because daily deaths are a lagging indicator. We are already seeing nominal evidence of this right now, but it's not held long enough to classify it as a trend.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:
​

57: 56-47-42-17-9​

56 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 50 of those 56 Units are US States. However, at 340 and the only Unit under the 1,000-line, the Pacific Territories may take a while to get there.

47 out of 57 UNITS have over 5,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 42 of those 47 Units are US States. I've opened up +5,000 as a rubrik since every Unit in the nation except one has cleared the +1,000 mark.

42 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. 39 of those 42 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and the US Military. Idaho and Puerto Rico are probably up next to cross over the 10,000-line.

Of those 42, 17 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 17 of them are states. Alabama and Indiana are very likely to cross the 50,000-line today, 2020-07-010.

Of those 17, 9 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. At 97,634 cases, Pennsylvania is next up to cross over the line.

Note: I adjusted the zoom-in rate down from 63% to 60%, allowing me to get more information on each graphic. Since I am pretty much ignoring the cruise ships until they finally change their stats, I can now get in all 57 units into 2 screenshots instead of 1.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:

​

57: 55-42-12​

55 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 50 of those 55 being states.

42 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 39 of those 42 Units were states. The non-states were: Veterans Affairs, Puerto Rico and Federal Prisons.

12 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases (the day before, it was 11), all 12 of them being states. This time, with a record-setting +11,394 cases for that state, Texas led the day, followed by Florida, California, Arizona and Georgia. Ohio is back on the 1,000 list, for the 4th time in less than two weeks. And another midwestern state, Illinois, which already should have had the first wave behind it, has appeared on the +1,000-list, not a good sign at all.

I've decided to focus in on the top 2 states by county, because you may be very surprised to see what some of the top counties are:



Hidalgo County is one of the southernmost counties in the nation and has no large cities (it's largest city: 130,000). It is a border county to Mexico and 90% Latino. A lot of very poor people live in Hidalgo county.



Notice how high Duval County is on the list. That is where Jacksonville is, where the RNC is planning to hold its convention.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 45-21-4​

45 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 43 of them are US States. The 2 non-states: DC and Veteran Affairs.

21 of 57 Units reported deaths in double digits or more, from +10 to +137. 20 of those of those 21 Units are US States. The non-state: Veterans Affairs.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 4 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths: California, Florida, New Jersey and Texas. This is the third day in a row and since a very long time that at least two states have reported +100 or more daily deaths. 464 (48.33%) of this day's 960 reported deaths came from these four states. This is not a good sign and hard evidence that deaths (which are always a lagging factor to case loads) are on the rise. The numbers as indisputable.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 47-25-8-2
​

47 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths, with South Dakota and Idaho having crossed over the 100-line on 2020-07-009. 43 of those 47 Units are US States. At 95 and 85 total deaths respectively, West Virginia, and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker. The 4 non-states with over 100 deaths: DC, Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs and the Navajo Nation.

25 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 974 and 905 deaths, respectively, Rhode Island and South Carolina are approaching +1,000-death line and will likely cross over it within the month of July, 2020.

*NEW:* 8 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +5,000 COVID-19 deaths. All 8 of them are states.

Out of all 57 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

COVID-19 in the USA, by top 31 of 57 UNITS, total tests performed:​

9 states have now performed over 1,000,000 COVID-19 tests.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 135,822 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of WEST VALLEY CITY, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 2,327 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us over 3 days ahead of the projection. This value is higher than the corresponding number from the corresponding Tuesday in June, shortly after the extrapolation began (2020-06-011, 2,139 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation at that time).

-Stat

 

Is there an easy way for you to see trends in some of the states that aren't in the news like say Tennessee?
It would be interesting to see if there are others on their way to an outbreak.

 

In a continuation of the development where I live, we have +396 cases....NONE in my native Philadelphia. Also, it's pouring cats and dogs outside, and honestly, the rain is a pretty fitting sentiment for the situation we humans are in.

 

With 45 minutes left in my day, 2 hours and 45 minutes left in WorldOMeter's day and with 6 hours and 45 minutes left in the day on the East Coast of the USA, the USA has already reported more than 57,000 C19 cases. Normally when I go to bed shortly before midnight and check the various figures, the USA numbers jump between +8,000-10,000 while I was sleeping. So, there is a good chance that we hit at least +65,000 new C19 cases in the USA today. More under the screenshot:



Also, we have a record number of 14 states (up until now) plus the US military reporting more than +1,000 daily cases, making for 15 total units. California and Texas usually report at least twice per day, so the current numbers for both of those dreadnaught states are sure to increase again today. Georgia has reported a record-breaking number for that state: +4,484. Nevada has appeared on the +1,000-list for the first time.

There are currently 6 states left to report COVID-19 numbers today: CO, NE, NM, ID, NH and HI. The good news is that until now, no state has reported daily deaths in 3-digit figures. Wait and see what happens.

So, no let-up this Friday. It sure looks as if today will be the heaviest day of the week and also the 3rd time in a row with over +60,000 fresh C19 infections, when all is said and done.

-Stat

 

Can you please explain to me what rain is ?

 

Just quit with that sleeping nonsense and the numbers will not increase.

Simple solution

 

Grööööööööööööööööhl......

 

Uh, it's where moisture forms in the sky, and it builds up to such a degree it can't hold it anymore and the moisture(now turned into water) falls down on us human peasants.

 

Stuff falling from the sky in Melbourne.

 

We are still waiting for our monsoons. But I don't want to think about it because we are headed for 114 this weekend.

 

Here’s an eye-opening stat;

Number of Covid19 related hospitalizations (U.S.)

Mar 17.......325
Apr 15........59,539
Jun 15........27,748
Jul 10..........51,544
Jul 15 estimate......over 60,000

Source; covidtracking.com

WHY?

Trump’s Rationale; “Because we’ve significantly increased testing”

 

Huuuuuuummm, I’m wondering what Trump’s “Baghdad Bobs” will be stressing next week?

Note; Baghdad Bob was Saddam Hussein’s Information Minister/Press Secretary, and the day U.S. Troops were storming Baghdad, he reported; U.S. Soldiers were mass-suiciding outside the city.

 

That is a interesting concept.
Does the rain damage human peasants ?
Do they dissolve.
Its just such a strange idea that water falls out of the sky ?

Fake News ???????????

 

100s and what ever for the next weeks.
At the present 7% humidity and 102 right now, might roll my sleeves up tomorrow, if it goes over 105.

 

Meteorites ?

Git under that table, please

 

Monsoons, we have had no monsoons since 5 years. El Nino years, we are now in La Nina, my be it changes.

 

Ok, we need some humor.
Maks are called in Germany, Schnutten Pulli, or in English, Kisser Sweater.

Put your Schnutten Pulli on.

 

Better day today as far as nation wide.

Yuge number of tests. 825,000.


Mayor of Atlanta is trying a shutdown.

 

HERE the analysis for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

Reminder: New 7-day rolling average system in effect, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

During the run of the day on 2020-07-010 there were some other important analysis:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-009, posted 2020-07-010, 12:32 GMT +2, #11055.
USA likely to go over +65,000 new cases today, posted 2020-07-010, 23:27 GMT +2, #11058.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter changed totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-07-010 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

֍** 12,616,579 **֍
A record-breaking +237,320 new C19 cases over the day before, highest total to-date.
This was the 4th straight day of +200,000 or more daily cases.
The USA breaks the +70,000 barrier, far above the over nations.
There are 182 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases, 138 of them with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 562,039 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,430 of them were on this day.
Brasil went over 70,000 total deaths on this day.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +204,858 new C19 cases and +4,804 deaths per day.
1,270 Brazilian, 849 US-American, 730 Mexican, 521 Indian & 211 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The last 18 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day and within those days, 6 days brought (non-consecutively) more than +200,000 new daily cases, a trend that I expect will continue. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +170,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past, +190,000 cases or more per day (see: rolling average) is the norm right now and soon enough, +210,000 per day will the norm. You can see that the rolling 7-day average of +204,848 is already over +200,000. Now it remains to be seen if it stays there. I suspect that our world will be in the +185,000 to +225,000 zone for a while. Very curious to see how the "slow" days of Saturday and Sunday ending this week are going to go...

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on this Friday surpassed 3 of the 4 Fridays before before. The daily deaths 7-day rolling average has been rising nominally every day since 2020-07-002.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +450 C19 cases and above):
​

138-69-37-21-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 138 nations in the "thousand club".

Of those 138, 69 nations are now in the "10,000 club". Kenya, Australia, Kyrgyzstan and El Salvador are up next to cross the 10,000-line.

Of those 69 nations, 37 are now in the "50,000 club".

21 of those 37 nations are at at 100,000 or more. At 94,060 and growing well over +2,000 cases per day, Argentina is up next to cross over the 100,000-line.

Of those 21, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil.

India, which surpassed Russia in the total number of COVID-19 cases 5 days ago, is already just under +108,700 cases ahead of Russia. Life comes at you fast. That being said, Russia now has over 713,000 total C19 cases, no small change, indeed. Therefore, two days ago, I extrapolated when the USA, Brasil, India and Russia will likely cross over the next available "million" line. The link is at the top of this analysis, but here again that link:

Extrapolations: top 4 countries (next million mark), posted 2020-07-009, 12:45 GMT +2, #11042.

India is exceeding the extrapolation, having set a (for that country) record-breaking +27,761 new cases on 2020-07-010. This means that India will cross over 1 million C19 cases earlier than I first thought. Brasil, on the other hand, is pretty much on schedule to break over the next million barrier. And the USA? The way things are getting out of control there, I probably should not have even attempted an extrapolation....

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

77-39-24-4​

77 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 74.

39 countries had +500 or more cases. The day before, it was 41.

24 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 24.

And finally, 4 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brasil, India & South Africa. The day before, it was 3. This is the fourth time that South Africa has gone over the +10,000-line, non-consecutively. This time, with +12,348, it is now far enough above +10,000 for two days in a row that shortly, it will be staying above that line for a good, long time, I predict. @Derideo_Te

The USA went over +70,000 new C19 cases for the first time ever, far outstripping any other nation on Earth, including Brasil, which last month often surpassed the USA in daily cases and still surpasses the USA in daily deaths.

There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly. But there are also signs that the Middle-East may become a true hotspot for COVID-19.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

87-38-19-11-1​

There are now 87 nations with 100 total deaths or more.

Of those 87, 38 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 38, 19 have over +5,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, with Pakistan having gone over the 5,000-line on 2020-07-010.

Of those 18, there are now 11 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 11, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 136,671 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 24.32% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 24.40%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 70,524 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average is: +880.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

You can see the top 9 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.

9 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 11 the day before). 5 of those 9 countries are from the Americas. .

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

31 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece and of them, with Indonesia having crossed over the 1,000,000-line on 2020-07-010. 5 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK and India.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here.

The USA has now performed 41.0 million tests (800,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 22.4 million tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has now performed 4.5 million such tests. The positivity rate in Brasil, assuming they are being truthful in reporting the number of tests performed, is very high: 39.36%.

Facit: on 2020-07-010, the world went from just under 12.4 million total C19 cases, jumping over 12.5 and 2.6 milion to land at 12.62 million cases. At this rate, we will go over 13 million C19 cases by the end of day tomorrow, Sunday, 2020-07-012.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. The huge increase in total cases will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise substantially, probably within the next 8-16 days. I'm already seeing evidence of a nominal average rise in worldwide deaths, it's been happening since 2020-07-002, one week ago.

-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average. Also, the USA is now being analyzed in 57 Units instead of 50 states.

There was one important interim analysis on 2020-07-010 pertinent to the USA:
USA likely to go over +65,000 new cases today, posted 2020-07-010, 23:27 GMT +2, #11058. (As you can see from today's analysis, my estimate was too conservative)

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

Important permanent note: sometimes there are discrepancies in the +-values (new cases, new deaths) between my excel table and WorldOMeter. This is always and without exception because WorldOMeter adjusted totals out of the past, usually from one or two days before, after I wrote the analysis. This is happening more often as countries are revising figures more often. Either way, I stick with the + values on my excel table as they are the correct reflection of the numbers as I recorded them. I simply do not have time to be constantly hunting numerical "ghosts" out of or into the past. If the discrepancy is extreme, I will note it briefly.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-07-010 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):
THE USA SHOOTS OVER +70,000 NEW COVID-19 CASES IN ONE SINGLE DAY

***3,291,786*** (26.09% of worldwide total)
+71,787 new COVID-19 cases, the 2nd highest daily total to-date. (30.23% of worldwide new cases)
In a row (+ or more): 16 days of +40,000, 5 days of +50,000, 3 days of +60,000, 1 day of +71,000!
There are now 136,671 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (24.32% of worldwide total deaths).
849 of them were recorded on this day (15.64% of worldwide daily deaths).
2 states reported more than +100 deaths, down from 4 states apiece the day before.
Rolling 7 day average = 57,314 new infections & 653 deaths per day.
1,460,495 people have recovered, 1,694,260 are still sick, 15,797 of them are in critical condition.
The recovered statistic is improving: margin = -7.11% vs. active cases (was: -7.18%).​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

It's really quite a week in the USA, to put it mildly. We STARTED the week on Monday with the highest daily case-load up to that time, and that on a Monday after a holiday weekend. Both Monday an Tuesday saw more than +50,000 new C19 cases, apiece. On Wednesday, we blew past the +60,000 barrier and on Thursday, likewise. However, on Friday, and exceeding my estimates, the USA sailed past +70,000 new C19 cases and now I am starting to wonder if the end is even in sight.

You can see that the rolling average already shows more than +57,314 cases a day, which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in slightly less than 17.5 days each time, if we maintain the current rate. Sinice both Wednesday and Thursday were NOT the peak days this week, but rather, Friday, I am very curious to see how much COVID-19 relief we will see at the weekend, if any. Was Friday really the peak for this week, or not? Soon, we will all know the answer to that question.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on this day, +849, reflects an UPTICK in Friday deaths in the USA over the last 4 Fridays and represent the highest number of Friday deaths in the USA since 2020-05-029, six weeks ago.

The real concern (and I have been writing this for almost two weeks now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 1-2 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA. Why 2-3 weeks? Because daily deaths are a lagging indicator. We are already seeing nominal evidence of this right now, but it's not held long enough to classify it as a trend.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:
​

57: 56-47-42-20-9​

56 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 50 of those 56 Units are US States. However, at 342 and the only Unit under the 1,000-line, the Pacific Territories may take a while to get there.

47 out of 57 UNITS have over 5,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 42 of those 47 Units are US States. I've opened up +5,000 as a rubrik since every Unit in the nation except one has cleared the +1,000 mark.

42 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. 39 of those 42 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and the US Military. Idaho and Puerto Rico are probably up next to cross over the 10,000-line.

Of those 42, 20 (all of them states) have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases, with both Alabama and Indiana having crossed over the 50,000 line on 2020-07-010.

Of those 20, 9 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. At 98,574 cases, Pennsylvania is next up to cross over the line.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:

​

57: 57-44-15​

57 of 57 Units reported at least one new case.

44 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 40 of those 45 Units were states. The non-states were: Veterans Affairs, Puerto Rico, Federal Prisons and Navajo Nations.

A record-setting 15 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases (the day before, it was 12), 14 of them being states. The non-state: the US-Military. Two states (FL, TX) recorded over +10,000 new cases, California was slightly under +9,000, Georgia set a state record with +4,484 and both Ohio and Illinois were in the mix again. For the first time I can remember, Nevada joined the +1,000 category. 9 of those 15 Units are from the Deep South.

I cannot stress how depressing it is to see the USA go over the +70,000 barrier and surely, within the next month, we may indeed, as Dr. Fauci warned, see some days with over +100,000 new cases. This will invariably lead to a huge spike in hospitalizations and more importantly, a steep rise in the number of those in critical condition, thus driving the raw death numbers and the death rate back up. This is absolutely NOT the direction in which the USA wants to be going, to say the least.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 43-23-2​

43 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 40 of them are US States. The 3 non-states: Veteran Affairs, US Military and Navajo Nation.

23 of 57 Units reported deaths in double digits or more, from +11 to +104. 22 of those of those 23 Units are US States. The non-state: Veterans Affairs.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 2 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths: Texas and California. This is the fourth day in a row and since a very long time that at least two states have reported +100 or more daily deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 47-25-7-2
​

47 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 43 of those 47 Units are US States. At 95 and 85 total deaths respectively, West Virginia, and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker. The 4 non-states with over 100 deaths: DC, Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs and the Navajo Nation.

25 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 976 and 929 deaths, respectively, Rhode Island and South Carolina are approaching +1,000-death line and will likely cross over it within the month of July, 2020.

7 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +5,000 COVID-19 deaths. All 7 of them are states.

Out of all 57 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 136,671 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between circa 137,000-151,000:




This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of HAMPTON, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 2,426 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us almost exactly 3.5 days ahead of the projection. This value is higher than the corresponding number from the corresponding Tuesday in June, shortly after the extrapolation began (2020-06-012, 2,230 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation at that time).

-Stat

 

So, those were the two big analyses for 2020-07-010. I will be gone for most of the day today (Saturday), will check in on things late tonight.

I wish you all a good, safe, healthy weekend. Let's not forget our humanity during this medical catastrophe.

-Stat