Who's behind Trump's big polling deficit? Two key groups defecting to Biden

"Today is no different than four years ago."

- And that is why Trump is losing.

 

I saw this article that discusses the expected effectiveness of the first wave of vaccines. The TL;DR is that most experts do not think these first wave of vaccines will act like MMR vaccines wherein you will take a shot and it will likely create a nearly complete immunity for several years. Instead, they expect the first wave of vaccines to like some of the current influenza vaccines where it might not even make you immunized to the virus, but it will make the virus much less likely to severely damage/kill you.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccine-what-to-expect-ab575615-a294-4127-ace3-fb0be3468085.html

 

Yes. Which is fine. It's quite enough for me, if I get a vaccine, catch the SARS-CoV-2 but do not develop the severe and damaging effects of the infection.

If the vaccine is strongly likely to make of me one of the mild/asymptomatic 80% of the people who catch this, rather than the 20% who develop severe illness, need to be hospitalized, and either don't come out of it (as in, they die) or come out of it maimed (as in, with brain, liver, kidney, heart, and lung permanent damage and/or strokes) I'm more than happy enough.

 

Been thinking about this more. I, personally, would have preferred for Trump to lead by example.

For instance, why did it take so long for him to wear a mask? Were there not enough supplies for everyone so it was being stalled? I don't know the reason it took him so long to wear a mask in public, but it was confusing to hear him say that he does wear them off camera because he didn't want to give ammunition to the media. Did he wear them off camera or just say that to stop the questions?

It was also surprising for him to randomly announce that he was taking Hydroxychloroquine as a prophylaxis. Did he not say these things earlier because there aren't enough supplies for everyone? Why make something like that seem like an afterthought especially if it is a promising solution to part of the problem? If true, how many lives could have been saved with this basic information?

I'm not trying to imply an ill intent on his part, but he has to (or should) know that he is looked to lead the people of this country and what he does and says has a significant impact. It's simply not the time to be sarcastic (his own admission) or obtuse.

 

Good questions

Outside of the FACT that Trump is a COMPLETE MORON (and NOT any Kind of "LEADER"), the answers seem rather self-evident.

 

Way different from four years ago! Obama is not President and, frosting on the cake, Hillary never will be!

 

Because he didn't need to in most cases, those around him are tested constantly as is he. And mask use is STILL disputed.

It was not random, when it was first discovered it had some therapeutic benefit he discussed and then was widely criticized for doing so.

 

Again, I am not speaking about Trump, the man; but, Trump the USA leader. We all watched him hold press conferences almost daily for a while and he (and others) were clearly not socially distancing, some were shaking people's hands and the media was seated side by side. Regardless of the reasons, he did not exemplify social distancing or mask wearing for the American public (and there was not really any explanation as to why the rules didn't apply to them).

Maybe "random" was the wrong word. I saw it when he first said it and it just felt like it was a kind of "shrug" thing for him. Again, if he's heard good things about the drug and knew the front line workers were taking it and "it can't do any harm", why did he wait weeks to say anything? Why wasn't it being mass produced to get out to the public as quickly as possible?

Again, as I've written previously, I understand he faced backlash and still does over his words and actions, but that's part of the job of being a leader in a free country. Everyone won't like your decisions, but you have an obligation to make sound, strong and decisive actions that actually lead your country through crises.

 

I believe the direct quote was "I don't kid", but the meaning is the same

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/23/trump-joking-slowing-coronavirus-testing-335459

Here's an interesting short article I tend to believe about Biden 2020

https://www.yahoo.com/news/texas-never-going-happen-biden-160914127.html

1. Ensure the Super CORE 3 (MI, WI, PA) - that's likely good enough for the W. I think we could be there now.
2. Then go after the next 3 (AZ, NC, FL) - that will ensure Trump basically has to leave without a temper tantrum
3. In October, hit Georgia hard, for Biden and the 2 Senate races.
4. Cornyn is still pretty safe and Trump will carry Texas by 3-4 pts, but by 2028, Texas will be Virginia and Lean Dem in every election

 

I am too and he and his surrounding people are monitored and tested and they are now wearing mask and no I don't think his wearing a mask would have lowered by any dramatic number.

He didn't panic and even at that the left was claiming he was being hysterical. Look it's easy to monday morning quarterback and play they "well if they had just done this or that and another life would have been saved". I think they took and are taken the prudent and pragmatic measures as those measures prove to cost and life effective. Remember when they were trying to determine who absolutely had to work and let's keep everyone else at home, you know essential workers, and how Trump was attacked for that? "HOW DARE YOU say some workers are more essential to other workers HOW DARE YOU insult non-essential workers"

Go here are read for yourself the sound, strong and decisive actions they took then get back to me and tell me if you still believe they were not taking sound, strong and decisive actions, they were not all sitting around with their thumbs up the arse's.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/...s-decisive-actions-to-combat-the-coronavirus/

 

I can only assume the President and those close to him are tested very, very often. That's simply not practical or probable (and may even be impossible) for the average citizen. Yes, it makes sense for him not to wear a mask if he is being monitored and taking prophylaxis medication, but that's NOT the case for his citizens. By the time he said anything about taking hydroxychloroquine, he had been taking it for a couple weeks. Again, this information was not made readily available and the medications are not widely available to the AVERAGE citizen.

I am not trying to armchair quarterback. I was answering a question posed about how things might have been improved and have already stated that I don't have the perfect solution. I just WONDER how things could have happened differently so we weren't all sitting here some seven months later unsure about anything within the economy, schools re-opening, individual financial crises, etc. We clearly cannot stay closed forever but we cannot, feasibly or reasonably, rush to slap a quick fix in the hopes there is not more fallout.

Doesn't he have a responsibility to tell us how he can help us, as individuals, as quickly and safely as possible? Of course the rules and protocols are different for him, but it's his job to address the nation in what is best for us given whatever information is pertinent to our needs, not his privileges.

P.S. I started reading the linked information and will delve into it more and respond later. Thanks for posting the link.

 

OK. I read most of it.

1. I do not expect that site to be balanced reporting because it's not independent.

2. I didn't say the administration was doing nothing to resolve the issues. I am just not sure if it happened fast enough and we'll never know since none of have a time machine to go back and start over.

My main concern is and has always been, where do we go from here and how do we do that with the fewest amount of deaths while re-opening the country? I am not on either side of the political spectrum at this point and I don't believe this should be politicized. Just as we were able to come together and work through 9/11, we should be able to unite in professional courtesy to combat the crisis. It's no longer an "us vs. them" equation. It's ALL of us.

 

Uhh... you guys win a LOT more polls than you do elections. Biden's a defective candidate. He is either going to flop in the debates or run from the debates. If he runs from the debates he loses the Mid West. America is not going to vote for a guy who is too scared to debate Trump.

A vote for Biden is a vote for more lawless violence.

Fox reported, "At least 34 people were shot including 10 who were killed during another bloody weekend in New York City.

 

Kindly REFRAIN from PROJECTING your own issues onto others.

Sad!

 

Biden's confused and in his basement.

​

 

Facts prove otherwise. From my original source;

So yes, they are definitely cutting corners because they completely BYPASSED phase 2 trials and are using FEWER than the required MINIMUM for a regular vaccine and CONSIDERABLY too few for a rare event vaccine.

IOW's we do NOT have sufficient data to rule out these possibilities.

Since there have NOT been any phase 2 trials there could DEFINITELY still be bad vaccines that have been RUSHED into phase 3 so that argument is null and void.

We are talking about a ONCE in a CENTURY event and while I give credit to those who are working hard to produce these vaccines I know enough about TESTING to be certain that when it is RUSHED as this is that means that there are DEFINITELY going to be negative CONSEQUENCES as a result.

The difference between doing it NOW and doing it RIGHT is vast and the history of medicine is rife with FALSE "cures" that turned out to do more harm than good.

I have ZERO trust in the REASONS behind cutting corners because we already KNOW that they are driven by GREED and POLITICS. That combination ALWAYS ends up HARMING We the People.

So no, I won't be lining up for any of these early vaccines that have NOT undergone the proper protocols and that is not because I am opposed to vaccinations. I support the concept and if they were being done properly I would be in line for one but what is happening NOW is BAD medicine that amounts to MALPRACTICE in my opinion.

 

Did you miss this part of my post? You did quote it, including this phrase, so no excuse for missing it:

"This is not to say that things can't go wrong in phase 3 or post-marketing phase."

Your source says "we won't know of RARE events until after the vaccine is licensed." Uh, duh. Yep. True. But that's true of ALL VACCINES AND ALL MEDICINES KNOWN TO MEN!!!! Sure, this can happen (like I had already acknowledged in my phrase above), but if we were to be discouraged by this, let's go back to the 19th century and dump in the trash can all modern medicines and vaccines... because they are ALL subject to post-marketing unexpected adverse events. Sometimes very bad... (like thalidomide or the Swine Flu vaccine) but in the overwhelming majority of cases, manageable.

Oh, come on, what is this guy's agenda? Not 30,000, but 38,500??? WTF???

And say, we have a 1 in 10,000 serious reaction. That is actually considered bad, for a vaccine given to millions, potentially billions of people. But what's the alternative???

1 in 10,000 is 0.01%. This virus KILLS 0.65% of infected people, at least. It doesn't get any more serious than KILLING, right? So the disease is 65 times worse than the vaccine. And this, should be put in perspective regarding two other factors: one, 1 in 10,000 bad reactions doesn't mean that the 1 person will die. They may have Guillain-Barré for a few months, then recover. Even with the big fiasco of the 1976 Swine Flu vaccine, only a handful of the patients who got the Guillain-Barré syndrome died. 450 people got it... I think something like 12 or 16 died. Well, the Swine Flu was killing thousands more than that, before the vaccine. So, if it's not just death, then you need to look at how many people get serious complications from COVID-19 even if they don't die: strokes, kidney insufficiency, myocarditis needing pacemakers, liver damage, neurocognitive deficit, severe lung scars with limited lung capacity and permanent shortness of breath, permanent severe chronic fatigue... We're just now beginning to understand all the consequences of this NOVEL and scary endothelial disease called COVID-19. The MOST GENEROUS estimates from emerging data point to at least 5% of people who catch it, including asymptomatic cases, having one of more of these serious and permanent consequences. Unfortunately my own brother is one: had an asymptomatic case of COVID-19 and one week after he tested negative again, had a devastating stroke. The most alarming estimates (I think this number is too high, but just to give you the range) talk about 35% of cases emerging from it with complications.

But let's say, 5%, to be conservative (that's probably a gross underestimation). So add 5% to the 0.65% and you have 565 times worse complications than those of a vaccine that negatively affects 0.01% of recipients.

And then think of the more senior people. The death rate goes up dramatically. Again, if we can save literally millions of lives with the vaccine and we lose 0.01% in the process (although like I said, it should be way fewer than that because even the people with severe reactions don't automatically die), we're still way into the winning lane.

About ADE: true, always a preoccupation, again, valid for many vaccines. But see, these were NOT mRNA vaccines... this guy seems to be misunderstanding (or just being alarmist for whatever political agenda or jealousy or self-promotion) the situation with mRNA vaccines. They attack precisely the S-proteins of the viral corona, which are the entry points for the virus to infect cells. So it's hard to see how they would cause ADE, more typically seen with inactivated or attenuated vaccines.

So this other guy of yours says there is a POTENTIAL risk for ADE... "definitely" a risk for ADE... duh again. Even the flu shot has been described to cause ADE in certain patients. Does it stop us from applying the flu shot to 165 million Americans yearly???

These alarmists, what are they trying to do, stop science? Are they jealous that they weren't the ones who thought of the mRNA route? Don't underestimate the jealousy and back-stabbing in the academic community (I've seen it first hand).

And now, where did you get the notion that these vaccines skipped Phase 2??? Moderna did their phase 2 since May, with 300 younger adults and 300 older adults.

https://investors.modernatx.com/new...tes-enrollment-phase-2-study-its-mrna-vaccine

Whoever is telling you that phase 2 wasn't done is being malicious and in bad faith, because it's simply not true.

Look, be my guest. Don't take it. I hope for your sake you don't catch the real virus and you aren't one of the millions of Americans (estimated to be 55% of the population) who have at least one underlying condition that predisposes to severe cases of COVID-19, because if you are afraid of 1 in 10,000 reactions (which haven't even happened yet, nothing serious so far), and you prefer the real full-blown virus which is at least 565 times more dangerous than that, then, you know, you're playing with your own Russian Roulette, and you're a grown person and we live in a free country so I can't stop you.

Me, I'll pick the 0.01% risk over the 5.65% risk (at least).

 

Then WHERE are the RESULTS?

From YOUR source;

Then there is this to consider;

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma...-study-fda-approves-at-home-sample-collection

In essence you are putting your own health and/or life on the line at the Big Pharma Casino where the ONLY winners are the GREED obsessed executives and shareholders.

I am NOT someone who GAMBLES with lives.

 

The results have been communicated to the NIH and will be published in due time. It takes time to publish. You are probably not familiar with the process if you think it's all immediate. There is gathering the whole thing, performing the statistical analysis, writing it up, and submitting for peer review. The peer reviewers take weeks to respond, then it gets to the waiting list of the journal.

Moderna was criticized because they issued a press release about Phase 1. Then they later published Phase 1 results in the very prestigious New England Journal of Medicine. Then, due to all the criticism, they did not release Phase 2 results in a press release. They are getting it ready for a peer-reviewed publication. Meanwhile there is no need to delay phase 3 because insiders' account is that Phase 2 went well, and time is of essence. But Phase 2 results will be published.

You said with all certainty that Phase 2 was skipped and never happened which is NOT true... I prove to you that it's not true... and now you're berating them because the publication hasn't appeared yet. You don't know that it takes months to get a paper to a prestigious peer-reviewed medical journal, huh???

So, damned if they do, damned if they don't, huh?

Next, you are surprised that these PRIVATE companies and their officials are profiting from their outstanding work. FYI, it's called capitalism, and if profit didn't exist, we wouldn't have 98% of medicines known to men. These companies are not charitable organizations.

And you are trying to poke me with some sort of hydroxychloroquine fail? You might want to browse my posting history and read what I said TODAY about hydroxychloroquine.

FYI #2, Moderna has NOTHING to do with hydroxychloroquine, gee!

I'm perfectly aware that an mRNA vaccine has never been approved before. That's how science progresses, with innovation. Nobody had ever been to the moon before, but we placed men there.

And you're impressed because the company has some cautionary words there? LOL, that's their lawyers speaking, to protect the company from possible liability. All companies proceed like that.

And Moderna is not even Big Pharma. They are a small start-up.

Anyway, whatever. Don't take the vaccine.

Don't complain later if you get a bad case of COVID-19. You'll have brought it upon yourself.

 

WTF are you babbling about NOW?

I never posted anything at all about HCQ!

My position that you have FAILED to refute or rebut is that there is a GREED obsessed RUSH that it is effectively throwing safeguards to the wolves in order to make an obscene PROFIT regardless of the RISKS to We the People.

If you want to be part of that PROBLEM that is entirely on YOU!

I do NOT gamble with other people's LIVES but you don't seem to have any problem with that.

Sad!

 

So comey is Russia?

I've heard Russia Russia Russia so many times now its comey?

 

Why do you insist on reminding us that Trump hid in the WH bunker?

 

Prepare yourself....

It was both. Russia's efforts were subtle. Comey was a sledgehammer...

 

It will be a wonderful day when all people can accept that Hillary defeated herself.

I know a guy that still blames his divorce on the lady (sledgehammer) that told his wife that he was banging his sales rep.

 

The first link you posted after "then there is this to consider" was about hydroxychloroquine. Then you edited out immediately and posted the current one. I didn't open either, but I saw the "hydroxychloroquine fails at the VA" link. Don't blame me for your posting mistakes.

Have I failed to refute or rebut your position? I said capitalist private enterprises are for profit and that's fine. The hyperbole of GREED in all caps is yours, not mine.

There aren't any safeguards being thrown to the wolves. Like I said, phase I and Phase II have concluded and Phase III is starting with adequate number of subjects in all three phases, like it's always been done. You got impressed with lawyer language on the company's website and alarmist statements by jealous people who likely have an agenda (which could be various - political, or trying to prop up a competitor, etc).

Me, I go by what the papers say, and Phase I was great, and insider reports from the NIH say that Phase II was great too (we'll see it published in due time).

Nobody is gambling with anybody's life. The Human Trials Phases I, II, and III are progressing as expected. If significant concerns pop up the FDA won't approve the vaccine, but others are hot in the heels, there are already 4 others in phase III trials and I'm confident that if Moderna fails, some other will not. You need to stop listening to hysterical media with a political agenda, yelling that the sky is falling.

Even if an approved vaccine gets a 1 in 10,000 reaction, the issues caused by the disease itself are much worse and much more frequent.

At this point I think we should agree to disagree. Have a nice day, and stay safe!