Who's behind Trump's big polling deficit? Two key groups defecting to Biden

You mean you have no answer and are running away?

 

I never claimed that he did nothing. I claimed that what he has done is a miserable failure.

And 60% of Americans agree.

 

Who are you to determine if they are clueless?

 

So far. Lies, damn lies and statistics. In the polls Biden clearly has the advantage and it's much more impressive than HRC's at this stage. But remember Trump won 304 to 227 electoral votes, even if Biden does significantly better than HRC it still might not be enough.

 

Absolutely fair. That's why I always include my disclaimer in every thread I make about current polling that "the only day a poll truly matters is election day."

 

Hm, but see, the fast-tracking has been on R&D and production, not in testing. These phase 3 trials (Moderna has just started theirs, and Oxford/AstraZeneca and Sinovac are ongoing since June and early July, respectively) are each enrolling 30,000 volunteers which *is* the standard size for phase 3 so no corners are being cut there.

Beware of language such as 4 out of 45 experienced "significant" adverse events. Significant in medical trial language is not to be understood with the same weight of the word in lay language. Significant merely means that it differed from placebo in a significant way. So, maybe someone experienced 24 hours of fever... and was listed as one of the 4. Maybe someone experienced pain at injection site for a couple of days... and was listed as one of the 4. They weren't dropping dead or getting vital organ damage.

This is not a scam. This is a worldwide effort to get effective vaccines in the market because this virus is way more dangerous than people assume. Oxford started this much before they got any money from the US, and they would have continued to plow ahead if not for us (would likely seek other funding sources).

1 in 10,000 "serious" adverse event is still A LOT better than what the virus itself does to people (about 5.65% of VERY serious events including death, brain damage, kidney failure, strokes, liver damage, etc). And see, "serious" adverse event. The language in Moderna's Phase 1 trial does not suggest anything "serious." But that's what Phase 3 trials are for - we give the medication or vaccine to a much larger cohort that includes older people and less healthy volunteers and we see if there are "serious" events. Like I said in my first scenario, it's perfectly possible that phase 3 trials will fail. But maybe they won't, and if they don't, it's not "rushed" in the sense of safety precautions, because if there was no rush, a phase 3 trial would have the same 30,000 volunteers.

Maybe some of these vaccine *candidates* will fail phase 3 but I'm hopeful that one won't and will deliver a risk/benefit balance that is favorable especially as compared to the alternative (that is, catching the real virus).

 

Nice try!
Hillary Clinton Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Donald Trump, Poll Finds

The former Secretary of State leads Trump by 51% to 39% among registered voters nationwide, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows.

Not quite the end of July poll, but it was late June.

Kind of funny how the libs pick and choose.

 

Who are you to determine they are not? If you met someone and you started talking politics with them and they could not tell you anything about politics, who were their Senators, which party controlled the Congress, what are the three branches of government, how are Supreme Court Justices appointed just to name a few would you encourage them to go and vote? Not encourage them to get better educated politically we both agree we should encourage all citizens to study civics and American history and be aware of the issues and their elected officials. But if it were the morning of the election would you encourage that person to go and cast a vote not even knowing who was running?

 

We have done all that, did it stop ANY cases at all from happening? Trump got attacked for closing the borders, the process of developing test was begun immediately, information as it was developed was released daily, this was an unknown of course there will be conjecture and speculations, Trump almost immediately called on American industry to switch production to needed items, I don't know of anything that was stonewalled please be specific, focus has been on the elderly and those with high risk factors and they held DAILY press briefings perhaps if the press asked more informational questions rather than Trump gotcha questions you would have even more information.

 

I don't care to determine whether any particular voter is properly informed. Yes, I would encourage someone to go vote the morning of the election even if they couldn't tell me anything about politics, which party controlled congress, what are the three branches of government, how the Supreme Court justices are appointed, and whether they could name a Supreme Court justice.

 

Trump ordered testing to be slowed down because it looks bad and creates more cases.

 

Pick and choose? I literally quoted the average of like a dozen polls from this day in 2016 and you are the one who "pick and chose" a single poll from roughly a month prior to try and refute.

That **** is just plain ****ing lazy.

 

The Bezos Washington Post = MSM = Fake News.

 

I already stated that I don't know the answer. I honestly don't, but it scares me that nobody else seems to either. Personally, I stopped watching the daily briefings because of how the MSM and Trump kept at each other. It's no way to behave (on both sides) and it is inappropriate during a national crisis and worldwide pandemic.

 

Well if you don't listen to the briefings and what the government is doing how can you say they aren't doing anything and should be doing more?

 

No he didn't another mischaracterization.

 

When did I say they are doing nothing and should be doing more?

 

What good does it do the country and the government to have people go to vote and pick at random?

 

You gave a list of things you think they should be doing when in fact they had.

 

He literally said, "I am not kidding."

 

It is likely to create a sense of ownership and thus increase the likelihood that they will take the time to learn more and become more knowledgeable and invested in their local and national issues.

 

Trump's GOP is going to be in for a very sad night on Nov. 3rd.

The DENIAL about Biden's Certain Victory seems to be the only way that they can make it through the 2020 Election season.

 

Many of the things I listed happened long after they should have. This problem was known as early as late December when the Chinese doctor that discovered it tried to warn people. I can understand why we weren't necessarily told about that (as it didn't seem like a threat at the time), but I don't understand why it took so long to start the process of containing the problem. I also stated that I was speaking within the context there were no outside efforts roadblocking the process to these solutions and acknowledge that is not the case in the real setting.

 

Replying to you again, Derideo_Te. This time I took care of reading Moderna's paper in the New England Journal of Medicine regarding their Phase 1 trial. It is here:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483

You'll see that this report of these supposed 4 out of 45 with "significant" reactions you may have read elsewhere, is likely to come from some sort of journalistic bias by some lay person journalist who doesn't understand Medicine or wants to give a particular spin to the information, because I see no reason for concern whatsoever in the results of this Phase 1 trial. More side effects in the top dose, but that's part of why these trials are done, to establish what's the safe and efficacious dose. The intermediate dose looks just fine to me. The scary adverse events you seem to fear turn out to be, like I anticipated, not much more than some fever, some local pain, one case of urticaria (you can never predict patient's individual allergies, these can happen with any medicine or vaccine known to men), nothing really impressive. There was one person who developed a high fever in the second dose of the high dose group, period. Since I believe they are dumping the high dose for subsequent trials, they should be fine.

On the other hand, the immunogenicity data look great.

I remain very optimistic, including because while they haven't been published yet, grapevine hints from their phase 2 indicate that it looks good too (NIH officials have seen the phase 2 partial results already), and I'm happy to see that as of yesterday, the first Phase 3 volunteers have started getting their doses of the Moderna vaccine. That's the first Phase 3 trial of a COVID-19 vaccine in the United States, while the Oxford/AstraZeneca one has started already since June in the UK, Brazil, and South Africa (scheduled to have a component here too, in August). Pfizer has just started their Phase 3 on Monday too, in sites all over the world (sometimes I think that their outstanding infrastructure will made of them the winners even though they got into it a little later than Moderna and Oxford). Then there's the two Chinese ones. The Sinovac one has started their Phase 3 trail in Brazil on July 20. Sinopharma has started theirs in Abu Dhabi on July 17.

Sinovac expects the end of their Phase 3 trial in Brazil by October 20, strictly 3 months, because it is much easier to have conclusive results when you are facing a rapid spread of the virus (easier to see protective effect in the people who took the active one as compared to the ones who took the placebo, because of the population being highly exposed to the virus). Them being Chinese we wouldn't be the first ones to get the doses, but eventually, money will talk louder and they will sell to us too, if theirs is the most successful.

Moderna expects Phase 3 results by Thanksgiving, and if they are positive, the FDA is likely to issue an emergency authorization and we will likely see the vaccine being delivered to the population in December. Moderna can rapidly escalate production because mRNA vaccines are very fast to make, unlike the old types that need egg culture.

Pfizer which started a little later, surprisingly said they expect to apply for approval by October! And if approved, they'd then deliver the 100 million doses the United States reserved, by early December, and 500 million more in 2021.

I assume that you won't want any of these vaccines. Sure, I'll want to read the Phase 3 results but if they are really good, yes, I'll want one of them.

This is not to say that things can't go wrong in phase 3 or post-marketing phase.

However, here is a piece of info that might indicate the likelihood that we'll get at least one of these vaccines to be good: unlike medications, vaccines seem to have a better track record in Phase 3 trials, when they've had no concerning issues in phases 1 and 2. I don't have the reference on me, but in average, vaccines that survive animal studies, phase 1, and phase 2 of human studies, earn final approval after phase 3, 75% of the time. Bad vaccines seem to generally show their shortcomings sooner than in phase 3. Not always, but mostly.

So, we have five vaccines in the world already in Phase 3, and their types:

Moderna/NIH - mRNA
Oxford/AstraZeneca m-RNA
Pfizer/BioNTech - mRNA
Sinovac - Inactivated virus
Sinopharm - Inactivated virus

Historically speaking 75% of these succeed... so between 3 and 4 of these 5 might succeed, and we only need one.

Now, lets suppose all five fail. Well, there are two more hot in their heels, with a different technology, non-replicating adenovirus vector. These are the CanSino Biologics, and Johnson & Johnson. And there is Inovio, with a DNA-based vaccine. And Novavax with a protein subunit vaccine. And Codagenix/Serum Institute of India with a live attenuated virus. And a replicating vector one from the French, the Institut Pasteur/Themis.

So, in addition to the two technologies already in phase 3, there are 5 more technologies hot in their heels.

Frankly, I can't see ALL of these failing. Like, 7 different approaches from 15 companies and organizations, including from the finest universities and biological institutes and the mightiest big pharma companies, and ALL of them fail? Unlikely.

I firmly believe that we WILL have a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine. I hope it's the first trials already underway with possibility of delivery by December 2020 or January 2021 that win the race, but if they don't and we have to wait a few more months for one of the other technologies to pay off, so be it.

 

So is this your rant!? Today is no different than four years ago. Polls said we would have a President that was the nominee of the Democrats! They said that then and they say that now. We shall see if history repeats itself! I am excited. How about you?