National polls are irrelevant, Biden could win CA by 1 vote or 4,000,000 and it wouldn't change anything. In fact, take CA out of the picture in 2016 and Trump won the popular vote by 1,000,000.
Final forecast: The Economist: Biden 97%. 538: Biden 89%. Politico: Biden win 270toWin: Biden win ( minimum of 279 ) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/election-forecasts-biden-odds-beat-trump-2016
Professor Helmut Norpoth: Trump 91%, 362 to 176 https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/29/political-scientist-helmut-norpoth-predicts-trump-win/
The map I saw had Biden carrying New York. The one outlier I didn't believe was Trump winning Virginia. It's conceivable but highly unlikely, in my estimation.
I don't think he says Trump will win NY. Norpath was right last time, and his model has been right 27 of the last 29 elections.
The poll were a giant scam on stupid people. I kept telling everyone they are nowhere near reality... and that is now a known fact.
So 8 days ago ABC/WaPo had Biden 17 points ahead in FL? How well did the "fix" work exactly? And "Blue Wave", care to revise and extend your prediction?
When the polls are totally outside of their own "Margin of Error", then the polls are invalid. What we had was propaganda parading as polls to get the bandwagon effect and $ pouring into the Democratic Party. Polling is dead to me like the MSM and Public Education.
Your post makes no sense. They keep calling until they have the number of respondents targeting. It matters not if "fewer people are picking up the phone:. When they all have the exact same bias, and they all declare their results were within the "margin of error", but clearly were not, it's a problem and they are not credible. I'm sure them all making the exact same errors and now doing it in 2 election cycles is also just a coincidence. I'll bet you think that all the Late Night Talk Show hosts having the same ideology is a coincidence? How about the MSM all covering the same stories, in the same order, with the same spin is a coincidence too? Hearing Leftists cry about "Systemic Racism", when it is they who runs those systems, yet they ignore the systemic bias in polls, media, and network news tells us how corrupt and intellectually dishonest the entire Leftist ideology truly is. It's all about power and control.
You need to take a college level stastistics class. The problem is obtaining a random sample. When there is a lower response rate, the group who is responding is becoming less and less typical. They tend to be older and still have home phones. They tend to be more politically active and won't hang up on political survey calls. Statisticians adjust for this by asking their demographic information and then adjusting the difference to the general population. But these adjustments are vulnerable to error. As a result, the polls are getting worse and worse and its not getting any better.
Valid pollsters keep polling until they have filled the Demographics they are looking for. They throw out the over demographic occurrences, or at least that is what they are supposed to do. So your initial claim is bullcrap. The polls "margin of error" and the results are in total conflict, which means they are not valid polls, but here you are trying to defend them. By the way, my Math skills way beyond statistics, which is boring.
The margin of error assumes the sample is a random sample. If the sample is off, the margin of error is irrelevant. The problem is that they have to guess the demographics of the people who eventually will vote. But those demographics really depend on enthusiasm, and pollsters can't completely predict this. Think about how democrats are more likely to not go out because of the coronavirus. This alone can throw demographics way off.
You clearly don't know how polls work. The demographics were always within their target range. You're just babbling.
I suppose it will still be a few days before I know whether to congratulate Trump or China on their election win, if a China win then also the former Soviet Union & Globalists in the west on their destruction of the free world & ideological war win....in the meantime I'll be in my bunker
The demographics were certainly not within their target range. In 2016, a lot more rural whites turned out to vote than expected. Turnout among minorities in 2016 fell, while it rose for white people. That claim is simply not true. Pollsters can only guess at turnout and enthusiasm.
2020 reinforces the 2016 lesson that there is something in the Trump voter population that polling simply does not pick up.
Biden is 6 electoral votes from winning the Presidency. I think he'll do it. I guarantee it. The Trump era will be over.
