A century ago Europe begun its suicide

How can you forget Japan?

 

But Japan entered the war in August.

 

Wow ... that's a terrible mistake, absolutely, Japan played its role it this.

 

Japan's role was minor and ineffective. So it doesn't really matter.

 

Same as Britain. In fact Britain had making an ally out of Japan early in the 20th century and was heavily involved in Japanese affairs since the Satsuma rebellion.
irrespective of Britain's involvement it was a global war even if it wasn't already; it certainly was destined to be so.

 

Ah well, here you discover something about me: one of my passions is history and since I'm member of an international historical forum with a high academic content, I tend to be accurate and pedant about history ... so to forget about Japan in WW I is a failure on my side.

 

No, not in my mind the mind of the people who lead Britain back then. The Empire wasn't destroyed, Britain was.

Rubbish, have you seen Germany it is in a terrible geo-graphical position with very few natural resources. Germany had the rule of law, good education, a highly capable general stuff from Prussia and a very dynamic economy because of protectionism by the German state, it was the first mixed economy. Germany wasn't always going to dominate Europe and its current economic and political domination will be short lived, however right now I would say Germany is the second more powerful country in the world.

Countries who depend on Germany is the whole Euro area because of the currency Union. This is where Germany gets its economic and political powerful. However Britain is outside the Euro, it also dominates Ireland, Norway, Iceland and the Faroe Islands, or at least has the ability to do so. Countries like Denmark and Holland fear German power and will look to counter either with the US or UK or both. Poland is an independence power with its own views and goals, sure it is greatly constrained by Germany within the EU, however it is able to do what it must in foreign policy and even manipulate Germany. Austria may as well just be part of Germany.

There are 5 major European powers Russia, Turkey, Britain, Germany and France. Then 5 pivot powers Poland, Sweden, Spain, Italy and Ukraine. The other countries don't really matter. Imagine a central European alliance between Poland, Ukraine, Sweden, Romania, Hungary. To block Russian aggression and stop Germany expansion. Or a Mediterranean alliance of Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece against Turkey. These alliances will need a backer, it will be the US with the support of Britain and France. So they don't need to agree on everything.

 

True and Japan also took on the newly formed Soviet Union along the other allies. Eventually, the Japanese anti-Soviet campaign turned out to be the longest lasting, longer than that of all other allies. It showcases that the Japanese began feeling scared by the USSR as early as then. Communism was the thing of the moment, a curious fashionable new thing given the world conditions, and was bound to emerge somewhere eventually. From that point on, communism was bound to change the geopolitics of the world and that moment proved it. And let's remember that the first communist revolution happened not in Russia but in France in 1871. It got crushed but still, for two months, Paris was the first communist city in history.

 

Well, I don't know about that, don't know whether Britain or France were that unhappy but one country that was very happy was Romania. For Romania it was the most advantageous treaty in its entire history. The economy received the greatest boost ever, democracy did the same, our world relations were better than ever.

 

As an Austrian you might feel that it was a bad thing to have lost the Austrian Empire but that was probably an imminent thing unfortunately. Nationalism was growing all over Europe. People were becoming conscious of their national heritage. The war only accelerated the effects of something that was underway anyway.

As a Romanian I believe the Austrian Empire was a very optimistic, peaceful federalist construction that unfortunately had had its day abruptly over just a few decades, rather than grow into a centralized thing. Larger things were going to take over the world at that moment. Nationalism contributed a great deal to it being dismantled and Western Romania united with the eastern Kingdom of Romania after the war. Nevertheless. the taste and tendency of Austria and Germany for European federalism remains strong in Transylvania, just like in Italy.

Now with the European Union, the goal comes back and proves to be a long term solution for the new age.

 

Well the Japanese had local naval hegemony after the battle of Tsushima in 1905 but that was prior to the intervention in the Russian civil war

True. People saw communism as a change that would ensure that peoples needs would be satisfied.
But of course nothing is that simple.

Well I wouldn't say that the Paris commune was a communist movement but it was a socialist one.
There were other communes post Franco-Prussian war but they didn't last.

 

If Japan didn't matter in your opinion then it's no surprise that you forgot the Kingdom of Romania. But we were a reliable ally for France and Britain, more than Russia was and we definitely played a part when in 1917 we defeated in our own territory a large German army that had invaded us. You should get an update.

Turkey a major European power in WWI? You've got to be kidding. Who gave the fatal blow to the Ottoman Empire in 1877-1878? We basically opened the way for Russian advance. The Russians proved to be incapable of beating the Ottomans on their own. Quite the contrary, the Turks seemed to be getting a hold of the situation until we intervened.

Imagine that an alliance between war-torn Britain, France, Germany, Japan and others could not defeat an even more war-torn, war-exhausted Soviet Russia. That tells a lot about the overall capabilities of everyone, be it at the start or at the end of the war. The Great War was not an intelligent war, it was chaotic and much of the situation developed by chance. Most people thought it would be a 1-2 month war, remember?

 

I wasn't talking about WW1. I was talking about the future geo-politics of Europe.

 

Turkey does not have a future as a major European power. Maybe Russia does. Maybe you are forgetting Spain and Italy? Poland and Romania are set to move beyond the 'pivot power' status soon enough.

 

East and central Mediterranean, Black Sea, Balkans and Caucasus. Turkey has a major future in Europe. Russia will breakup with a couple of decades. Spain and Italy have major issue, they will continue to matter, but not be the driving force behind the geo-political tends in Europe. Poland yes, Romania no other than a Polish ally.

 

Turkey will be worn out by ceaseless wars with the Islamic State. I suspect the Islamic State is going to unite most Muslims into one oil superpower, a murderous dictatorial superpower, a thousand times more ruthless than Saddam would ever have gotten. Turkey has its own internal problems. Count its vicinity to the Islamic State and you realize that Turkey is toasted on the long run. I am afraid that evil as it may be, ISIS is the future of Middle East power. Nothing can stop it now. The US is collaborating with Iran because of this threat!!

How so?

They are just as powerful but they are stupid enough not to focus that power. Italy GDP is only slightly lower than Britain. Cut Scotland out and Italy becomes number 3 in the EU after France.

 

WW I saw the end of the central empires with a move of the European axis towards West [London - Paris, to be accurate], with a total mess in the East [from the Revolution of October to the starvation caused by a mad policy run at Moscow].

WW II saw the creation of a "balanced" Europe, divided in the middle by the notorious "iron curtain".

After the end of the Cold War, Europe has gone back to the situation after WW I and in some cases [former Soviet Republics], even before ...

About the future, I do hope Europeans will finally realize that our continent is little and very crowded, too little and too crowded to run isolationist or domination policies. Sooner we will realize that Europe is the future and sooner we will cohabit in a better context.

 

They've been doing their best to keep clear of the Syrian civil war.
I doubt that the IS is capable of moving on Turkey this due to their relatively small size and disparity in their equipment compared to the Turkish army.

I don't think that the IS is going to go that far and I'm willing to bet that they collapse within a few years or sooner.

I don't think that Iran is collaborating with the US but they are trying to do so with Iraq although ironically they did help create this mess.

I don't think Russia will break apart either. The federal system is good for keeping vast contiguous territory united.

It's expected that Scotland will choose no rather than yes.
And Itlay is one the largest contributors to the EU and it surprises me that they don't seem to have quite the same renown as either Germany or France.

 

In other words hypothetical alliances against Germany
You still live in a world of the last century. I don't think anybody today is afraid of a German invasion and I think a French-German alliance will dominate Europe. Britain has always been a problem for the EU as neither politicians nor people want to participate in it. They will choose eventually to drop out and have a recession and then deal with their partners abroad. It doesn't matter who has the biggest military in this day and age, it's only important who runs the Dollar, the Euro, the Pound and the Jen.

I don't see the US or the UK being able to compete with the EU simply because both have such a population disadvantage. The EU is right now over 500 million people. Britain will get replaced easily, but GDP wise Britain will be unable to compete with a united european market, and I don't think the US with it's 330 million can compete either. Especially because of the huge untapped resources of the EU in the East and South. After Britain drops out, two things will happen, in my opinion: EU-constitution and one commander and chief of the EU military.

It is definitely old British "splendid isolationism" talking when they want a balance of power on continental Europe.

 

I definitely consider myself a monarchist in this stage of my life and I long for the Habsburgs to return to Austria. Not to conquer or reclaim territory, but because I live in Austria, Slovenia and Croatia and there is no other representative I feel represents all three countries who are so dear to my heart. The old Empire had its advantages: no borders in my mind was important. Thankfully the EU is moving in that direction as well.

But apart from my personal nostalgia, I hate nationalism. I hate if there is separation between people based on languages or other crap. I want people to get along independent of their heritage or language or any other nonsense. I'm learning my 5th language right now, and I never felt like only one people or language represented me. I'm as Austrian as I am Slovene as I am Croatian. And I wish for all my homes to work together and prosper instead of fight over nonsense.

I wrote my thesis on nationalism, and I have yet to find good arguments why it was a good development in our history. It definitely had more negative impacts than good ones. WW1 and WW2 were just two peaks of it in the last century.

 

The IS is the most modern, coherent organization that the Middle East has ever seen. It looks like Turkey is in trouble.

We shall see. Given the rate of their expansion and the ease with which they convert other Muslims to their side is mind boggling.

Indeed the IS is a monster created by the stupid western intervention. They thought that helping Syrian rebels with weapons will help bring democracy in Syria and now the very same rebels have joined the IS, hahahhahhahhaa. and all of a sudden, Bashaar al Assad looks reasonable to the west. Dictators like Saddam or Bashaar keep a balance there and the western world doesn't seem to understand that.

True.

I'm very curious.

 

The Islamic state doesn't matter. Sunni Muslims aren't flocking to it and Turkey itself is a Sunni Muslim power. So what are you talking about? The US is looking to leave the region, it wants to balance Iran with Turkey, so I think the US will push Turkey to take a more active role. These new interests will force Turkey into a cold or hot war with Iran for domination of the region. Which Turkey with the support of the US will win.

We are already seeing it happen in the South of Russia, however massive military spending and energy revenues stop it from happening for now. The simple fact is Russia is huge with a very small population and no capital production linked to world markets. Russia is powerful but poor, if it can't pay off some area's then they will leave Russia. Then Russia will have to take military action and sap its resources further. So breakup of Russia is very likely within the next two decades.

 

We are talking about a vision of the future not the present Middle East.

What I'm talking about? What you say will only increase the likelihood of parts of Turkey becoming part of the Islamic State, wouldn't it?? The more similar to them, the better for the IS. They want all Muslims under one government and territorial claim is their strategy.

The US is a spent country at the moment, both economically but especially morally. The 13 year war proved pointless, it only did more harm than good. Westerners have no business there, and the Turks are not westerners.

 

Geography doesn't change very quickly, so yeah I am still in the last century. Of course they are scared of German power political, economic and military. That is why the EU and NATO were created to contain German power. A French-German alliance is impossible they have to many competing interests. The EU has always been a problem for Britain. I hope Britain does leave the EU and has a recession. However Britain will still do the vastly majority of trade with Europe. Both military and currency matter. It is all about controlling trade on land you need the currency, at sea you need the navy.

The US and UK population is going up, while the EU population is going down. So what are talking about population? You can't replace Britain it has the best ports in Europe, the largest banking sector, makes a lot of food, oil and gas. So who is the EU going to replace Britain with? Japan? Yes the EU will be larger, so Britain will have to destroy the EU with Russia and Turkey if the EU wants to have a trade war. The US has no problem economically and has massive room for population growth. All the technology to tap their resources is based in the US with their mineral based property rights. So what difference will and EU constitution make or an EU commander?

No our policy to never to create a balance, rather to stop one country dominating Europe. The two are difference.

 

I am saying ISIL matters now but in the future it will not matter.

ISIL is a Sunni state that takes on countries with weak states like Syria, Iraq and Saudi maybe, however they can't take on Israel, Egypt, Turkey, Iran because they are real states. ISIL will be removed by of the real states to increase their own power.

Are you joking the US has a net worth of 326 trillion dollars plus. Spend force not at all. Morally no it got rid of the Taliban and Saddam. The war wouldn't point they killing 20,000 Al Qaeda fighters in Iraq and basically destroy its capability to attack the US. Westerns have had business their since Napoleon marched into Egypt.