Attention ALL PF intellectuals, this is your thread

Yes, even accepting all the numbers which you admit are only estimates, and rough guesses, and which you seem to misuse, I accept the notion that we have a higher % of illegal immigrants than does Canada. Common sense contributes to this argument, because the U.S. has stricter official limits on immigration than Canada, which actively seeks more people for its vast area. But if that was your point, it was very poorly conveyed by you, that it was: I was under the impression that your point had something to do with illegal immigrants taking away jobs from legal Americans. This is a perfect example of the very inaccurate way your argument has been proceeding, despite your trying to masquerade it as scientific, through your way of boiling everything down to mathematical expressions. To wit: proving that we have a higher level of illegal immigrants DOES NOT PROVE THAT THE OVERALL RESULT IS FEWER JOBS FOR LEGAL RESIDENTS. I went into this in some detail, in my original reply, pointing to one of your first respondents, @Patricio Da Silva , making this argument, which you have, thus far, ignored.

Let us look a little closer at this current, statistical proof, you offer.

This is funny. I never contended that any of your stats were not the most accurate available, only that they were just rough estimates, educated guesses. Their imprecision is a consideration, when your approach is to reduce everything to numeric expressions, whose antiseptic sterility is meant to denote that they represent cut & dried, inarguable, mathematical facts which, since the raw numbers used are not factual to begin with, they of course do not. You try to neglect this inaccuracy, behind claims of, "most reliable," though I am glad to see that, above, you at least admit their flawed nature.

Then, you try to brush this all away, by the not very clearly expressed sentence, below, which I take to mean that you are assuming the inaccuracies in the numbers, for all countries, are going to cancel each other out, i.e., that they will all be off by approximately the same amount, and in the same direction which, of course, is utter hogwash, no matter how you dress it up.

I do appreciate your taking us through some of your thought-processes, in arriving at your conclusions; I think this is much closer to what @wgabrie had in mind, when he made his earlier comment. What you show, however, is only confirmation of my original predictions:
1) that your starting data is inexact, and
2) that your method indicated that you were comfortable enough with rough numbers to contribute to that, and take the approximations to a higher degree of uncertainty.

See below, where your way of equalizing the numbers is to assume 100% employment rate of all illegal immigrants (which, besides being clearly false, contradicts all your earlier equations, determining the illegal employment rate). Would not the employment rate, if we were striving for some semblance of accuracy, bear some relation to the national employment rate; that is, higher in countries with higher employment rates? But even that would be far less than accurate: if immigrants settle in particular areas, as they tend to do, rather than distribute themselves evenly across the nation, then someone who was actually interested in making an intellectual study, as true to actual numbers as was possible, would look at employment rates in the specific places that various illegal immigrants would be likely to live (largely among populations of legal immigrants from those same places). One who was concerned with making sure their results were derived scientifically, would even calculate in the employment rates of the particular industries and segments of the economy in which the illegal-worker proportions are known to be higher. These are all examples of the way you approached your subject with the most superficial of calculations, and a manifest, "close enough," attitude of laxity. I hope, for homeowners' sake, you do not build houses, for a living.

I'll give one final example of the less than authoritative nature, of your findings. Note the huge gap, relatively speaking, in the opinions of the experts, of the undocumented number for Canada: 200k, or up to 2 1/2 times that many, 500k. Instead of doing calculations from both ends of the estimation range, to produce a result that would represent the spectrum of estimates, making it more credible, you simply split the difference. This is not consistent with the exactitude of mathematics, through which you appear to be attempting to give your figures the patina of scientific authenticity.

All I am now doing, in responding to your justifications for your math, is giving you a class in creating more accurate estimates, which I'll point out that, even if you don't appreciate it, I am doing without resorting to the condescension which you showed toward wgabrie.

Numbers are like felons without a defense, facing very serious prison sentences: it is not that difficult to get them to say what you want them to say, if they are at your mercy. Because I do have points to make that are more in accord with your side of the argument (as I ended my last post, saying), but will never get to those points, if you continually drag me into arguments over your less than irreproachable figures, I suggest you refrain from your complaints, at least until I have posted the 2nd half of my argument.

 

They are hiring them because of cheap labor under the table stuff. Jobs that already existed prior to the pandemic and are now opening back up. They aren't new jobs and certainly the illegals aren't starting them. They are taking jobs from those legally in the U.S., not starting new jobs.

 

Doesn't matter how hard they are working. They are taking jobs from people looking for jobs that are legally here. The "work harder" nonsense is just a strawman argument to take our eyes away from the real problem of stealing jobs.

 

Not at all. You miss the illogic of the hypothesis. Illegal aliens don't create jobs. They take away jobs.

 

He's pointing out that the illegals are creating jobs. They aren't. They are taking away jobs from people legally in the U.S.

 

And here I thought this was going to be a thread about St. Aquinas' Second Way argument for the existence of God.

 

Jobs arise from human needs and wants.

They cannot come from anywhere else, ultimately speaking,

Immigrants have needs and wants, just like you do.

Therefore, you are wrong.

The above is irrefutable.

Sorry.

 

Like I said, if you want a job picking vegetables, all you have to do is show up. No one is taking those jobs away from you. It is your lack of ambition that keeps you away from the fields. The solution is in your hands. All it takes is a little effort. It seems that you would rather complain than work.

 

That's naive. It keeps the price of those goods artificially low. Who are you to dictate that a head of lettuce should cost $0.69 instead of $1.29?

 

My Opening Statement; ''Folks, I'm seeking a concensus

Next, migrationpolicity.org ESTIMATES.............in 2018, approx. 7 million illegals were employed

Next, U.S. Employment Rate COMPARISONS, Canada and other Nations.......2019, ''best performing economy'', however, U.S. Employment Rate ranked 80th out of 180 nations. In other words, 79 nations had HIGHER Employment Rates.

Next; an ASSUMPTION, and/or a NOTION; Compared to other first world countries, the reason why U.S. had lower Employment Rates is because according to migrationpolicity.org, we had/have approx. 7 million illegal employments/ undocumented/unreported employment figures............MAKES SENSE TO ME, however, based on questionable estimates, and/or perhaps I haven't gathered enough evidence.

 

You are completely ignoring economics. Jobs just don't happen and they aren't free. Someone is paying for the job and if they can squeeze you out by hiring someone who will work for less money, the employers will do it. And, you think all you have to do is show up. That isn't factually true. I've picked before. I had to go in and ask for the job. I had to fill out hiring paperwork.

 

Illegal aliens don't create jobs. Employers create jobs. Liberals think money grow on trees. I guess they think jobs grow out of thin air...

 

So why aren't you blaming the people hiring them?

 

I have no problem blaming the employers who hire illegal aliens. But, the illegal aliens are also breaking the law and to blame. It's not one or the other. It's both.

 

Not in this case.

 

PF has intellectuals???

 

Yes, in this case. Illegals are breaking the law by the fact they enter the country illegally...

 

The logical problem I see is that you are saying that, if our economy is performing better than other countries', we should have a higher employment rate (a lower unemployment rate), is that right? Then you are proposing estimates of how many illegal immigrants are working in our economy, supposedly creating the surplus, in your paradigm, of unemployed/underemployed citizens & legal residents, yes? Well it would be helpful if you explained what computations went into the rating, "best performing economy."

For example, if what allows us to attain this title is the degree of AUTOMATION in U.S. business, that would obviously hold a big part of the reason we can perform so well, with fewer employees. Another potential source of fewer jobs for Americans, in our top-performing economy, likely is the large number of jobs that are farmed out to people in India, the Far East, and South America, who do handle a great deal of U.S. companies' customer service calls, & the like. But even before examining what qualified our economy as the, "best-performing," my problem with your logic is that you are gauging what our employment rate should be, based on how the economy performed, and then trying to apply that to a population without illegal immigrants. But those illegal workers CONTRIBUTED TO OUR ECONOMY'S PERFORMANCE. So if you remove the jobs they hold from your calculus, our economy's performance rating would almost certainly go down (meaning that our employment rate would need to be recalculated, as well, resulting in its level being scaled-back). Do you see the logical fallacy in your argument? What you should be doing, for the purposes of comparing our employment rate to our performance rating-- and I would be curious to know how well that theory holds up among the other countries, because I am doubtful that there would be such a direct parallel, relative to all the other nations on the list-- if the work performed by illegal workers affects our performance rating, is to then treat these illegals, for mathematical purposes, as if they were actually part of the legal U.S. population. In other words, add 11 million to the official U.S. population, & calculate that new total's employment ratio, including those 11 million additional employed individuals (if you are basing your calculations on full employment of illegals). Do you follow?

 

They wouldn't be here if people weren't hiring them.

 

Funny how it’s been 11 million illegals for something like 20 years when we have had close to 1 million cross in just a year.

 

Wrong.

Jobs come from people.

They cannot come from anywhere else.

Without people, there are no jobs.

Immigrants, legal or otherwise, are people

Entrepeneurs sell their goods and services to illegals, legals, and anyone who buy their goods and services, FROM PEOPLE WHO NEED AND WANT STUFF.

From people.

Jobs grow from human needs and wants.

From people.

Get it?

Capiche?

I guess not.

 

Quote; The logical problem I see is that you are saying that, if our economy is performing better than other countries', we should have a higher employment rate (a lower unemployment rate), is that right?



Higher employment rate = a lower unemployment rate??????????????................According to Canada's Employment Stats, a high employment rate does not equal to a low unemployment rate.

Please study the following employment situations, and we'll talk.

USA Employment Situation, MAY 2021

Population; 332,923,757
Civilian Population; 261,210,000...........78.4% of overall population
Labour Force; 160,935,000

Number of Employed; 151,620,000
Unemployed; 9,316,000
Employment Rate.............................. 58%
Unemployment Rate...........................5.2%
Labour Force Participation Rate.........61.6%

U.S. Estimated number of illegals; Over 11 million

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employment-rate
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06042021.htm
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

CANADA Employment Situation, MAY 2021

Population; 38,069,453
Civilian Population; 31,265,000.......82.1% of overall population..........3.7% higher than the U.S.
Labour Force; 20,211,000

Number of Employed; 18,559,000
Unemployed; 1,652,000
Employment Rate; 59.4%................1.4% higher than the U.S.
Unemployment Rate; 8.2%..............3% higher than the U.S.......ONCE AGAIN, 3% higher than the U.S.
Labour Force Participation Rate; 64.6%........3% higher than the U.S.

Canada estimated number of illegals; 350,000

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/labor-force-participation-rate
Canada's BLS........https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028703
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/canada-population/

NOTE: If the U.S. had a 59.4% Employment Rate, and/or Canada's Employment Rate versus 58%.........a differential of 1.4%, however, very significant;

U.S. Civilian Population; 261,210,000 X 59.4% = 155,158,740 Employed VERSUS 151,620,000 Employed.........+3.538 million more employed.

CONCLUSION: I am more than convince that migrationpolicy.org estimated 6 - 7 million ILLEGAL EMPLOYMENTS, invalidates our BLS Labour Stats.......ONLY when compared to other nations.

 

By the way, DEFinning, the above post cost me approx. $5 in roaming fees......had to use my Blackberry to obtain a few Canadian Stats, thus, please don't spoil it.

 

Why is it, I wonder, that we have a serious problem in our country where the wealth of the wealthiest is growing at a phenomenal pace, while wages for workers remain mostly stagnant. Yet conservatives insist that their lack of economic progress is caused by people who are even more poor than they are. They could remove every last Mexican out of the United States and your income and job prospects would not increase. Unless of course, your preferred career path is in picking vegetables. Or processing those vegetables in cold damp working conditions. Mexicans are not your problem.

 

Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions


Are undocumented immigrants counted in the surveys?

It is likely that both surveys include at least some undocumented immigrants. However,
neither the establishment nor the household survey is designed to identify the legal
status of workers. Therefore, it is not possible to determine how many are counted in
either survey. The establishment survey does not collect data on the legal status of
workers. The household survey does include questions which identify the foreign and
native born, but it does not include questions about the legal status of the foreign
born. Data on the foreign and native born are published each month in table A-7 of
The Employment Situation news release

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm